EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

mbasense - the like buttons on our forum is the star you see under each post. Unfortunately it is not very intuitive but it works exactly like the "like" buttons you are referring to.

Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too

[ajaydons]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5779.html

No movement for EB2-I
EB2-I No movement
EB2-C 1.5 months movement
ROW- Current

[srimurthy]

ROW is C and China moves by 3 months and India surprisingly dates stay the same

[pdfeb09]

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.

See if you find this AC21 Discussion useful.

[openaccount]

EB2-I No movement

Either CO got information from USCIS that they are going to provide 250 visas for PDs prior to Sep 2004--Or--CO wants to gauge porting demand for October and then move dates in November(Dec VB) based on October porting demand--new portings added in month of October.

[redsox2009]

I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Now because ROW is current can we expect some miracles in last 2 quarters?

[qesehmk]

I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.

India should easily reach into 2007 Dec ... but if it will be in one month or 2 or 6 - can't say. By Sep 2013 EB2I should be in late 2008.

[CleanSock]

November bulletin is out. EB2I is at 1st Sept 04. No change.
EB2C : 1st Sept 2007.
EB2 ROW : Current

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

[ChampU]

EB2-ROW - C is a huge relief..It reduces the "EB2 variables" to India and China. EB2-C is at a comfortable date, which EB2-I can easily catch up, barring any catastrophic rise in other visa numbers. If we assume 3k porting applications, prior to Sept. 1st 2007, it would take 6268 visas (2800 Regular quota visas+ SOFAD of 3468).

EB2-C would be a good date to follow moving forward. Assuming porting EB3C-EB2C porting is 0, just with its regular allocation, EB2-C will reach mid-August 2008. With a 3k porting estimate, EB2-I would need roughly 18600 vias (SO of roughly 16k).

[ChampU]

I had a question about EB2-ROW being Current..

EB2-ROW gets roughly 2750 visas per month.

A COD for EB2-ROW (01/01/2009) was put in place in the July bulletin.In the October visa bulletin, a COD of 01/01/2012 was put in place.

So it is safe to assume that whatever applications were pending between 01/01/2009-01/01/2012, were processed and approved before the Fiscal Year began. (possibly by the 5k visas received from FB).

EB2-ROW is C for the November bulletin.So the 5500 odd visas that were allocated to EB2-ROW this year ( 2750 each for Oct. and November), were enough to take care of their demand.

Even if we assume that these 5500 visas are strictly the cases between July and October, EB2-ROW demand is not more than 22k visas. Add to that the 5600 visas allocated to EB2-IC. Does that mean, we can expect a spillover of at least 8-10k from EB2-ROW?

[gc_soon]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

[openaccount]

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

Not an expert but here is my take.
VB was released on October 12th from Oct1-Oct10 there could have been some new porting numbers(probably<100) added to DD compared to previous month, that might have influenced in not moving PD. If in 10 days some X new porting numbers were added to DD then there is a fair chance for that number to become 2X by Nov1, that could be the reason for not moving PD.

[ChampU]

EB2-ROW is consuming much less than their annual quota. At the beginning of this FY, the DD showed their demand was close to 6K, which is only 2K per month. At that rate, they should yield 10K SO. Realistically though, 6K of that would be consumed by the carried over demand. So we could expect 4K SO from EB2-ROW.

I'm sorry, I didn't understand the calculation.

1. The ~6k Demand, that showed up in the Oct. Demand Data is the Carried Over Demand, correct?

2. Assuming the Demand is roughly 2k per month, the Demand for the month of November should have been 5300 (6000 (Carry Over) + 2000 (Oct. Demand) - 2700 (EB2-ROW quota) = 5300).

3. The Demand Shows up as 1650. It could mean either A. EB2-ROW received an excess of ~3.7k (5.3-1.6) visas in the month of October. Or B.The Residual Demand for October and Project November Demand Combined was 1050 (6000 -2700 (Oct.) - 2700 (Nov.) + 1050 = 1650).

The second scenario seems too good to be true and the first seems highly unlikely. What do you think?

[bvsamrat]

My take on this

As it will be difficult to estimate or predict demand for last 2-3 months, in which case those might be added back to EB2-I as spill over. Hence my guesstimate would be around 10K from EB2-ROW. May be at the expense of them being unavailable to EB2-ROW for 1-2 months!

I don't have the October demand data at my fingertips, but I believe it showed EB2-ROW being close to 6K. If you think about it, EB2-ROW was practically unavailable for 3 months, so the demand accumulated at the beginning of October shows the number that would have been approved in those 3 months. That works out @2K per month.

For the month of November, the demand number will be reduced substantially because many people must have been approved in October. Going forward, EB2-ROW demand should show 0, because they will be current at all times.

If EB2-ROW is going at around 2K a month, they will leave 34K - 2K*12 = 10K SO. Subtract the 6K accumulated from FY 2012, and they should yield close to 4K SO in July.

[gc_soon]

Thanks sportsfan on ROW demand explanation - makes sense. How could one guess the EB-1 demand, given the fact that, it is not mentioned in the demand data.
Hopefully 485 pending inventory that will be released(this month?) will give us some clue to Eb1 trends?

[GhostWriter]

ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.

http://www.kidambi.com/resources/per...ics%202012.pdf

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol...on-statistics/

Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.

Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.

[ChampU]

ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.

http://www.kidambi.com/resources/per...ics%202012.pdf

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol...on-statistics/

Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.

Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.

Thanks for the input,Ghostwriter.. It raises hopes for a lot of folks..

[imdeng]

EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.

One factor to mull over: EB3-ROW is soon going to face a demand cliff and it will happen this FY (most likely June/July?). This means that EB3-I is poised to get thousands of spillover visas that should drastically eliminate porting for FY 2014. If EB1 demand stays low/is managed, and EB2-ROW trends continue, I think in FY 2014, the EB2-I date might cross May 2010.

[imdeng]

Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).

[qesehmk]

imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.

EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.

[ChampU]

Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).

As disheartening as it may sound, I doubt CO will go for QSP, as early as Jan. With his plate full with EB2-IC and with lessons learnt last year, I believe CO will move dates conservatively, until he is absolutely sure he doesn't have to put a COD on EB2-ROW or EB1. I think that point of comfort would come around May/June.

[imdeng]

On the other hand - it is a possibility that the EB3M/P/ROW density is not very high post 07/07. So a path to EB3ROW being current some time in future is possible. I believe the ratio of EB3 to EB2 has declined after 07/07 and the transient factors that drove up the EB3 demand (like nurses from P, the big nurse shortage is over) have subsided. Plus the recession might have caused some real demand destruction there. We will know how this will turn out as we get visibility on the post-07/07 demand for EB3ROW/M/P in a few months.

Update: BTW - looking at Spec's collection of PERM data for ROW/M/P, the number of PERMs have declined drastically. From 44K for 2007 PDs to just 18K for 2011 PDs. However, both 2007 and 2008 are pretty dense - so it is a couple years at least before the low density will show up.

imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.

[cool_guy_2004]

Cool_Guy-

You have entered using your AP i.e you have been given an entry as Payrolee. In other words your are in a payrolee status. To answer your qtn:

- You can with no issues continue to work your existing H1b with the same employer
- When your current H1B expires and assuming that you didn't get your GC and you would like to continue on H1B, you can apply for extension using the current H1b and if the extension is approved you automatically get back to H1B from payrolee
- You can also file for a transfer using the current H1B, when the transfer is done you again automatically move to H1B status from payrolee
- If at all you decide to continue on EAD (which i wud not suggest since you have H1 for few more months), then you have to file a new I-9 with your employer and have to be proactive in getting your EAD/AP extensions

It is now upto you if you would like to continue on H1B or start using the EAD. Choice uis yours.

Thanks Sandeep.