EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Spectator]

A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?

A combination of preadjudicated cases and new EB3-WW cases doesn't help.

I'm not sure the chances are diminished. If visas run out mid way through September, it was always unlikely it would have been approved within 45 days of Receipt anyway. Even with an early walk-in, it might take 30 days to get the biometrics done.

If your date remains current in October, you may have a chance of an approval if there is no RFE, but even 90 days would have been considered quick until fairly recently.

Either way, the EAD processing time shouldn't be impacted.

[indiani]

spec,

i think in DD porters arent included, what do u think?

[indiani]

I meant interfilers whose PD was never current and new filers

[vizcard]

spec,

i think in DD porters arent included, what do u think?

I meant interfilers whose PD was never current and new filers

That is correct.

Once they file a 485 as EB2 and are pre-adjudicated, they will show up in demand. So theoretically every application (porting or regular) for PDs after July 2007 should show up in demand data.

[Guest123]

That is correct.

Once they file a 485 as EB2 and are pre-adjudicated, they will show up in demand. So theoretically every application (porting or regular) for PDs after July 2007 should show up in demand data.

How about EB3 before Jul 2007 who filed 485 as EB3 and then did the porting to EB2 - Will they be filing 485 now as EB2 again and that demand is not shown in DD yet?

Will these applications processed quickly in these 2 months just by interfiling to the old EB3 485 which is pre-adjudicated?

[vizcard]

How about EB3 before Jul 2007 who filed 485 as EB3 and then did the porting to EB2 - Will they be filing 485 now as EB2 again and that demand is not shown in DD yet?

Will these applications processed quickly in these 2 months just by interfiling to the old EB3 485 which is pre-adjudicated?

Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.

Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2

[Guest123]

Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.

Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE - is what is not represented in DD and is the unknown factor - will it be large enough to consume any additional spillover left and thereby by stall the EB2I date at 01/01/2008 or retrogress?

[indiani]

Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.

Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2

I have posted before what CO thinks is in DD which is more importanat than what anyone is this forum thinks. Read all my previous posts within a day and you will find it

[indiani]

Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

Reposting 3rd time

[indiani]

IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs." ( from AILA prsentation )

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I am presenting my view for your valuable comments.

Without the FB added to the anuual quota, China is entitled to receive only 2800 , with FB, China can receive 3163.

Purely accounting the straight forward cases from the inventory, oct'12 to July'13 covers 3k cases. Since COD has been moved past the date where it should stop at 2800 cases (normal scenario) can we assume their EB2 total as 3163? If yes that leaves only 163 visa numbers left under the FB added new quota with Zero porting accounted sofar.

Assuming (again) Zero porting numbers, with 163 visa numbers remaining , the 2 months move could consume 500 more approx, which directly targets the spillover from unused numbers.

For China to get otherwise unused numbers, EB2 India's COD must have reached 08 Aug 2008 to share the remaining if any with China.

My question is, what is the basis for CO to give a prediction of 2 months move over the remaining FY-2013? Do they have that much Visa numbers (20K) to cover? Or that was a mistake and he might take back his words?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I am presenting my view for your valuable comments.

Without the FB added to the annual quota, China is entitled to receive only 2800 , with FB, China can receive 3163.

Purely accounting the straight forward cases from the inventory, oct'12 to July'13 covers 3k cases. Since COD has been moved past the date where it should stop at 2800 cases (normal scenario) can we assume their EB2 total as 3163? If yes that leaves only 163 visa numbers left under the FB added new quota with Zero porting accounted sofar.

Assuming (again) Zero porting numbers, with 163 visa numbers remaining , the 2 months move could consume 500 more approx, which directly targets the spillover from unused numbers.

For China to get otherwise unused numbers, EB2 India's COD must have reached 08 Aug 2008 to share the remaining if any with China.

My question is, what is the basis for CO to give a prediction of 2 months move over the remaining FY-2013? Do they have that much Visa numbers (20K) to cover? Or that was a mistake and he might take back his words?

Kanmani,

I can't see you accounting for the 7% portion of any Fall Down from EB1 that EB2-C appear to be entitled to. EB2 allocation is 45,188 plus Fall Down from EB1. 7% is prorated based on the allocation.

If, for instance, 10,000 visas fell down from EB1, then EB2-C share would be 10,000 * 7% = 700.

That would raise the EB2-C allocation to 2,803 + 360 + 700 = 3,863 or 55,188 * 7% if you prefer to look at it that way.

That sort of level (around 4k) was consistent with EB2-C progress to date and the forecast of up to 2 months per VB for the remainder of the year. EB2-C would have ended up in December 2008.

In this scenario, there is no need for EB2-I to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C, as EB2-C are still only using their 7% allocation of EB2 visas.

I thought it was this issue you were asking about in your previous post. I suspect I was wrong in that assumption.

The fact that it appears EB2-C can no longer reach that date says something has happened (and quite recently). Either other cases outside the known demand have used up the visas, Fall Down from EB1 is now thought to be less than before, or it is a combination of the two. A reduction in Fall down alone is very unlikely because the reduction would have to be very high compared to solely account for the difference.

We don't really know very much about Chinese cases. There is a perception that they have low porting, but no facts to base that on. It may also be that a large number of people were unable to file when the window was open in FY2012. Again, we don't know.

[Kanmani]

Spec, Please bare with my ignorance.

Why do we consider that Fall down from EB1 for 7 % per country limit at all? For all these years if it is 140k it is 2803 and anything else Falling down is free from per country limit is it not ?

This is what I see from DD document
Preference China* all Other Countries Worldwide Limit

E1 3,164 3,164 45,188
E2 3,163 3,163 45,188
E3/EW 2,863 3,163 45,188
E4/SR 785 785 11,218
E5 85 785 11,218
Total 10,060 11,060 158,000

[Spectator]

Spec, Please bare with my ignorance.

Why do we consider that Fall down from EB1 for 7 % per country limit at all? For all these years if it is 140k it is 2803 and anything else Falling down is free from per country limit is it not ?

This is what I see from DD document
Preference China* all Other Countries Worldwide Limit

E1 3,164 3,164 45,188
E2 3,163 3,163 45,188
E3/EW 2,863 3,163 45,188
E4/SR 785 785 11,218
E5 85 785 11,218
Total 10,060 11,060 158,000

Kanmani,

There was a whole thread devoted to the topic quite some time ago. It wasn't this year, but the subject and the thread has already been discussed in this thread this year.

In my example above, the 7% figure for other Categories would reduce based on how many they had contributed to Fall Down. Simplistically, (although it is not exactly correct) you could think of the EB1 allocation as having reduced by 10,000 and that the 7% figure for EB1 would have reduced by 700. The total 7% number within EB would be unchanged.

I'll try and find it. If I do, I will add the link to this post.

Edit:- It is here.

[Vkkpnm]

A combination of preadjudicated cases and new EB3-WW cases doesn't help.

I'm not sure the chances are diminished. If visas run out mid way through September, it was always unlikely it would have been approved within 45 days of Receipt anyway. Even with an early walk-in, it might take 30 days to get the biometrics done.

If your date remains current in October, you may have a chance of an approval if there is no RFE, but even 90 days would have been considered quick until fairly recently.

Either way, the EAD processing time shouldn't be impacted.

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

[vizcard]

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

1. Summer 2014 at the latest
2. The official processing time is 90 days. Although most people last year got them way quicker than that. I even got my renewal in 60 days. As Jim Carrey says in "Dumb and Dumber" .. So there is a chance!

[Kanmani]

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.

2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.

Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .

[qesehmk]

VK - I think you should be prepared for a binary outcome i.e. you either get greened by end of Oct (assuming your date will stay current through at least october) OR post retrogression your date will be current again next Aug/Sep.

If you file on 1st Aug - I would give it 4 months of total processing time - although you could be lucky. It means Nov is when you could get GC. Or if the dates retrogress - then next Aug.

Sorry - it's not ideal. In fact its quite cruel. But unfortunately that's what it is.

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks everyone for your prompt response.

[qesehmk]

Not many people would get that!!

My favorite part of the movie is when they are looking for the girl's address in directory and the other guy ask Jim Carey her name. Jim Carey says "Mary Swanson" and then he utters a second and a third and finally gives up. Another one of course is the beer one

As Jim Carrey says in "Dumb and Dumber" .. So there is a chance!

[Spectator]

I've been looking at the new Labor Certification Registry Data. It doesn't include the Country of the applicant in the displayed results, although that information is contained in the pdf attachment for each record.

Therefore any analysis can not split the data by Country. I will have to wait for the official Disclosure Data for that.

It is a pain to extract all the data. I won't guarantee the total numbers are 100% (I can only guarantee 99%) It is not an exercise I am likely to repeat.

Nonetheless, here is what I was able to find for data in Q3 and July 1 to 10 and analysed by the PD of the application.

April

PD
2007 ----- 1
2008 ----- 1
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 4
2011 ---- 34
2012 - 2,446
2013 ----- 1

Total - 2,487

May

PD
2007 ----- 3
2008 ---- 17
2009 ----- 7
2010 ----- 2
2011 ---- 36
2012 - 2,164
2013 --- 335

Total - 2,564

June

PD
2007 ----- 0
2008 ----- 3
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 2
2011 ---- 60
2012 --- 926
2013 --- 747

Total - 1,738

July 1 - 10

PD
2007 ----- 0
2008 ----- 0
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 0
2011 ----- 5
2012 --- 211
2013 --- 294

Total --- 510

Total Certifications for PD 2012 are now slightly higher than for PD 2011.

All Certifications for PD 2013 to date are for January 2013 only. DOL have been painfully slow recently.

PS:- One quirk I have found with the LCR system. For a given date range search, the results will always include 1 day beyond the ending date. e.g If you want the figures for May, you need to enter a range of 05/01/2013 to 05/30/2013. If the ending date is 05/31/2013 the results will include 06/01/2013 as well.

[gs1968]

Some changes to the EB-5 program which might affect spillover

http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsr...investors.aspx

[natvyas]

1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.

2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.

Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .

I think it said that the "Pattern" would be similar to FY'13, which tells me no movement till Aug of 2014. With the numbers dwindling across the board I dont think we will see a similar movement in FY14 but it is too early to say.

[veni001]

1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.

2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.

Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .

Kanmani,

That is not true, one can travel after filing 485 on a valid non-immigrant VISA.

But it is strongly recommended to come back for fingerprints with out trying to reschedule.

This is based on personal experience.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Veni. Any idea of the average time of receiving FP request?