EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Vkkpnm]

I would expect it to be sometime in 2006..perhaps even Jan 1,2007

Is your statement contradicting with Q on page one where he predicted that it will clear backlog till Feb 08. Or probably i could not interpret him properly. I will go that far because of expected increase in Eb3 to Eb2 porting?

[qesehmk]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more. 6K of EB2IC quota (plus whatever 7% from 18K i.e. approx 560) is barely enough by itself to move the dates to Jan 2008.

So I think the date movement is made just as a teaser with some serious movement yet to come. I am being conservative when I say May. When I run through the tool - the tool gives me Feb - Jul as the range (worst vs best). But I wouldn't be surprised if the movement happened until Sep 2008. So bottomline 100% confident there has to be more movement in Sep (min 3 months I would say).

Q, Do you still think FD is yet to happen and not accounted this time?

[qesehmk]

VK .. its about different people following different methodology. So contradiction is good because that's how we avoid group think.

As per my own thinking I wouldn't be surprised if hte dates do go back to 2004. And you know why - because that 's where the EB3 demand must be strongest. Think about it... somebody EB3 who filed in 2004/5 - what that guy or gal must be doing? Isn't s/he most likely to get upgraded - switch job etc. With time who knows these people are very experienced and may be directors etc. That's why heaviest porting will always happen 1/3 years from where EB3 dates are today.

Is your statement contradicting with Q on page one where he predicted that it will clear backlog till Feb 08. Or probably i could not interpret him properly. I will go that far because of expected increase in Eb3 to Eb2 porting?

[Guest123]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more. 6K of EB2IC quota (plus whatever 7% from 18K i.e. approx 560) is barely enough by itself to move the dates to Jan 2008.

So I think the date movement is made just as a teaser with some serious movement yet to come. I am being conservative when I say May. When I run through the tool - the tool gives me Feb - Jul as the range (worst vs best). But I wouldn't be surprised if the movement happened until Sep 2008. So bottomline 100% confident there has to be more movement in Sep (min 3 months I would say).

Q,

How is 6560 (6K + 560) enough to move dates to Jan2008 when the DD shows 8050 until Jan 2008, without evening taking into account for the EB3 - EB2 porting numbers from Sep 2004 - Aug 2007.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Q. That is quite encouraging.

I am still in a dilemma what to interpret from this phrase "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", why Co Didn't purposely avoided the term "otherwise unused numbers".

I even tried to go through the previous years' bulletins to catch the pattern of his statements, I haven't succeeded yet.

[qesehmk]

It is not - that's what I am saying.

BTW - My opinion is DD has porting included.

Q,

How is 6560 (6K + 560) enough to move dates to Jan2008 when the DD shows 8050 until Jan 2008, without evening taking into account for the EB3 - EB2 porting numbers from Sep 2004 - Aug 2007.

Kanmani - good catch. Then that does indicate that more movement is yet to come.

Thanks Q. That is quite encouraging.

I am still in a dilemma what to interpret from this phrase "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", why Co Didn't purposely avoided the term "otherwise unused numbers".

I even tried to go through the previous years' bulletins to catch the pattern of his statements, I haven't succeeded yet.

[Jagan01]

It is not - that's what I am saying.

BTW - My opinion is DD has porting included.

Kanmani - good catch. Then that does indicate that more movement is yet to come.

Q, Kanmani,

Thanks for your opinion. I also interpreted the statement to say that there will be some of Family Based spillover that will come to EB2I in the coming bulletin. No movement for EB3I confirms that family based spillover is yet to be accounted for. EB2I should end up at 080808 as that is where China is.

By the way Chinese believe that 8 is lucky number for them. EB2C is currently 080808.

[Jagan01]

Thanks Q. That is quite encouraging.

I am still in a dilemma what to interpret from this phrase "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", why Co Didn't purposely avoided the term "otherwise unused numbers".

I even tried to go through the previous years' bulletins to catch the pattern of his statements, I haven't succeeded yet.

Q and Kanmani,

I saw the May 2011 bulletin and found the below wording

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)

This is one instance when he (CO) has used the terms "unused numbers" and "annual limit". He clearly has a distinction. That makes me think that dates will move forward considerably in next buletin.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Chinese have come to an conclusion that they are done with their annual EB2 quota . With the movement up to last month, do you have any opinion on their visa distribution ever included any FB numbers?

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Qesehmk.

[vizcard]

Is your statement contradicting with Q on page one where he predicted that it will clear backlog till Feb 08. Or probably i could not interpret him properly. I will go that far because of expected increase in Eb3 to Eb2 porting?

Current backlog doesn't preclude future porting. The hope is that porting per-2007 will be less than the monthly quota. If its more then dates will retrogress further.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Chinese have come to an conclusion that they are done with their annual EB2 quota . With the movement up to last month, do you have any opinion on their visa distribution ever included any FB numbers?

Kanmani,

I can't say because the difference is rather modest and there is no info on new applications and any porting China may have had.

At the beginning of the year, movement to 08AUG08 required about 3k, if all cases were approved.

If I had to guess, I would say no, but I really don't know.

[Spectator]

Gurus,
I read some where The spillover from fb to eb was around 18.4k or 18.6k but in the bulletin or discussions so far we see the number of total available as 158k. The remaining 400-600 odd are they not being represented because of round off or being held as buffer or being wasted.

The exact number FB fell short last year was 18,465.

There are some other calculations which can reduce the number slightly, but they never amount to many.

DOS cannot officially announce the EB and FB allocation numbers until USCIS have supplied certain information to DOS. You may have noticed that the VB has so far still said

The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

Clearly USCIS have not given the required information to DOS in time to include the official figure in the August VB.

I expect it to be included in the September VB and it may lead to an increase of 400 or so.

Last year, the official announcement was not made until the September VB (Section D) because USCIS did not provide the required information to DOS about the previous 2 FY until August 8. That is pretty much the day the September VB had to be published.

Quite why it take USCIS so long to provide the information remains a mystery to me. I suspect they do it to deliberately annoy DOS.

[ggk189]

The exact number FB fell short last year was 18,465.

There are some other calculations which can reduce the number slightly, but they never amount to many.

DOS cannot officially announce the EB and FB allocation numbers until USCIS have supplied certain information to DOS. You may have noticed that the VB has so far still said



Clearly USCIS have not given the required information to DOS in time to include the official figure in the August VB.

I expect it to be included in the September VB and it may lead to an increase of 400 or so.

Last year, the official announcement was not made until the September VB (Section D) because USCIS did not provide the required information to DOS about the previous 2 FY until August 8. That is pretty much the day the September VB had to be published.

Quite why it take USCIS so long to provide the information remains a mystery to me.

Thanks for the response.

[qesehmk]

Perhaps they too have their own porting going on.

Kanmani,

I can't say because the difference is rather modest and there is no info on new applications and any porting China may have had.

At the beginning of the year, movement to 08AUG08 required about 3k, if all cases were approved.

If I had to guess, I would say no, but I really don't know.

[suninphx]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more.

Q- your calculation of EB2-ROW quota includes FB allocation too? In another workds are you looking for EB2-ROW to consume around 37-38 K or more?

[indiani]

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. It is expected that such movement will generate a significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time.


There is deliberate attempt to not mention anything for sept.

I think as the interfiling is going to be somewhat a significant factor, CO might be cautious.

One of the interestings things that charlie ( thats what CO prefers to be called) told fellow lawyers is that he never gives any date that is not possible as people might come back to him and ask why didnt move.

so as he mentioned feb 2008 ( i.e march 1st 2008 ), that is the minimum movement , so realistically it could be couple of months beyond that in sept

[Guest123]

It is not - that's what I am saying.

BTW - My opinion is DD has porting included.

Kanmani - good catch. Then that does indicate that more movement is yet to come.

Thanks for the reply, Q. That would be really great if your statement is true that DD has porting included. It would remove a lot of uncertainty.

[desitiger]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more. 6K of EB2IC quota (plus whatever 7% from 18K i.e. approx 560) is barely enough by itself to move the dates to Jan 2008.

So I think the date movement is made just as a teaser with some serious movement yet to come. I am being conservative when I say May. When I run through the tool - the tool gives me Feb - Jul as the range (worst vs best). But I wouldn't be surprised if the movement happened until Sep 2008. So bottomline 100% confident there has to be more movement in Sep (min 3 months I would say).

This is good stuff. Good enough to temporarily pull me out if my post VB depression.

[Kanmani]

5) I guess the first day, i.e. 1st August '13, almost everyone will send their I-485 application. So I-485 application should be sent by lawyer 2 days before Aug 1st, so that it reaches by Aug 1st? (may be this sound stupid question, but I could not resist myself to sound stupid

In common practice, people rush their applications to grab an earlier spot in the queue, for whatever reason it may be, please make sure it reaches only on August 1st and later .

If it reaches one day earlier, the application will be rejected on a later date, may be even after the retrogression.

[Vkkpnm]

A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?

[vizcard]

A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?

For new 485 applications ..perhaps. I dont see it impacting EAD applications. They were very quick in 2012 when thousands of applications came in a short span but then they didn't have a lot of pending backlog (pre-adjudicated cases) prior to the movement like they do now.

[Vkkpnm]

So my chances of getting green this year further diminish as I have to file new I485 and my PD is Dec 07.

[indiani]

So my chances of getting green this year further diminish as I have to file new I485 and my PD is Dec 07.

last yr someone got GC in 58 days, so might too

[indiani]

Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

Reposting