EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Spectator]

Spec - Indeed I meant EB2C. I was so much hung up on that even when I was reading EB3C it registered as EB2C.

Anyway ... but that's what I am thinking that EB2IC will probably catch up in the best case scenario). WE will see.

Q,

I hope your interpretation is correct.

The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).

[fedupwithgc]

As per DD/Inventory look up, it looks like 8K SO to move dates to JAN 01 2008. How much more spillover do you guys think we will have to move forward in the month of Sep ? Looking at previous years, we should have another 8K will takes us to Jul 2008 ....

[qesehmk]

Oh yes ... what I laid out is a possibility and hope rather than interpretation. But honestly 1 Jan 08 in August is a good start.

I am more than 50% confident that Sep we will see something more upto 6 months

Q,

I hope your interpretation is correct.

The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).

[fedupwithgc]

Oh yes ... what I laid out is a possibility and hope rather than interpretation. But honestly 1 Jan 08 in August is a good start.

I am more than 50% confident that Sep we will see something more upto 6 months

My PD is July 07 2008 and hoping to be current next month

[Guest123]

Porting might consume the remaining spill over if any..

As per DD/Inventory look up, it looks like 8K SO to move dates to JAN 01 2008. How much more spillover do you guys think we will have to move forward in the month of Sep ? Looking at previous years, we should have another 8K will takes us to Jul 2008 ....

[fedupwithgc]

Porting might consume the remaining spill over if any..

By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.

[desitiger]

By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.

Any chance of date moving beyond March 2008 this fiscal? Never filed I-485 and missed it this time by two months

[Guest123]

By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.

EB3 porters (Sep 2004 - Aug 2007) who already filed for 485 and ported to EB2 might consume a big chunk of the spillover. I assume these are not included in the demand data yet as the PD porting would happen now during this window.

[Vkkpnm]

Ooohoooo

[kd2008]

Q,

I hope your interpretation is correct.

The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).

Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?

The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."

So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?

If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.

Thanks as always for your insight.

[axialtilt]

The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.

Hi indiani, please post the more info from the presentation when you have it ready. The first prediction of Jan 1, 2008 did come true. I wonder what other info was given in the conference about possible further movement.

[vizcard]

Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?

The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."

So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?

If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.

Thanks as always for your insight.

When CO says "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", it includes FD from EB1 (and consequently EB4 and EB5).

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I too have a doubt in interpreting the phrase.

Is it that this advancement alone will fully utilize all the numbers? Does it sound like that?

[indiani]

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: July 8, 2013

why is it that we could this only today ( not a major problem though to wiat extra day ), based on my expectations this should have been released yesterday, anyway the date is where everyone told it is going to be, so will wait for the emails filling out inboxes next month

[Spectator]

Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?

The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."

So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?

If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.

Thanks as always for your insight.

kd2008,

I just read the phrase

the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit

to mean the original 45k plus any Fall Down from EB1. Numbers can't be available to EB2-I until they are in EB2.

In the INA, the numbers available to Second Preference is defined as

Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraph (1)

where 28.6% this year equates to 45,188 and paragraph (1) refers to EB1.

It is my belief that is how CO is using the phrase.

By the end of August, EB2-I will have already used almost all the 3.2k from the normal quota. Additionally, there is the potential 8k shown in the demand plus all the pent up porting cases from June 2012 to August 2013 to come into the demand.

That could easily be a potential 15k in total (although since not all cases will get approved it is actually probably less than that).

My point is that we're most likely only looking at a few thousand or so to come in September to use up the numbers available, which limits how far the dates can move.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I too have a doubt in interpreting the phrase.

Is it that this advancement alone will fully utilize all the numbers? Does it sound like that?

Kanmani,

That is always a possibility and that there will be no further movement in September. Currently, I do think some movement is possible in September, but maybe not that much. I think it depends on EB1 and EB2-WW performance before the last VB of the year is published.

I'm sure CO has made the phrase deliberately open to multiple interpretations.

[qesehmk]

Viz - I saw Spec's interpretation which is along your lines.

I think Annual limit if left open to interpretation as FD + EB2 category limit then loses the meaning of the phrase "Annual Limit".

By definition limit is has to be hard coded at an absolute number or absolute %.

So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now.

When CO says "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", it includes FD from EB1 (and consequently EB4 and EB5).

[Spectator]

Viz - I saw Spec's interpretation which is along your lines.

I think Annual limit if left open to interpretation as FD + EB2 category limit then loses the meaning of the phrase "Annual Limit".

By definition limit is has to be hard coded at an absolute number or absolute %.

So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now.

Q,

Fall Across alone from EB2-WW could not have allowed the COD to move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

FA in EB2 will either be a very low number, zero or slightly negative (i.e. EB2-WW would use some FD). To move the COD in the August VB to 01JAN08, FD must have been assumed.

I guess we can just disagree (in a very friendly way of course) and see what the September VB brings.

PS:- In the July VB, CO wrote

At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September.

In this context, CO clearly includes FD in his definition of

“otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers

otherwise mentioning September would make no sense.

[geevikram]

Guys,
Was demand data ever released for this month?

[indiani]

"

So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now"

Q,
I think its impossible with FA alone to make CO move to jan 2008 ( FD surely is used )
will it many more months is september? - I seem to think it might move few months, probably 2-3

[qesehmk]

Spec - it's a pleasure to even disagree with you!! So don't worry about that.

I agree with you that indeed FA wouldn't have been sufficient to move to Jan 2008 (esp with my concerns about EB3ROW porting. I think that is one last remaining thing I am not sure I have really cracked it that well yet).

However - I am thinking that it is not impossible either. e.g. many times people look at last years backlog, and this years demand and then they add together. Well that's not the right approach. One should always subtract 1/3rd of this year's demand because that is rolling backlog that even a current category will always have because of 485 processing timelines. 4 Months of processing means 1/3 year of rolling backlog. That's why I won't entirely rule out FA satisfying movement through Jan 2008.

p.s. - I think it is also possible that Jan 2008 might be a bit of overshot since neither CO may have that perfect understanding of demand. So in that regard I echo Kanmani's sentiment on whether indeed date movement means all demand will be satisfied.

pps - Indiani - I think this probably also answers your post.

Q,

Fall Across alone from EB2-WW could not have allowed the COD to move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

FA in EB2 will either be a very low number, zero or slightly negative. To move the COD in the August VB to 01JAN08, FD must have been assumed.

I guess we can just disagree (in a very friendly way of course) and see what the September VB brings.

[indiani]

Guys,
Was demand data ever released for this month?

no..............

[Spectator]

Q,

I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.

Please see my PS in my original post, which I added after you had quoted it.

[qesehmk]

Spec - saw your PS. So yes indeed it is subject to interpretation now. Well we will know in another 31 days ... won't we. Meanwhile I am planning to head to banff!! Can't wait for it.

Q,

I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.

Please see my PS in my original post, which I added after you had quoted it.

[geevikram]

Then we just have to wait until DD comes out to know what is going to happen next month. Is DD released every month?

no..............