EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[kd2008]

Suninphx, For 2012 EB2WW got about 27K approvals in 9 months (as per Spec's estimate) before a cut off date was imposed. Prorated that would have easily crossed 34K. Alternatively you can add the 4K from the demand data and add another 3K for the people who were not able to file in last three months. Either way if a cut off date was not imposed EB2WW would have used entire 34K allotment. I will edit the post to note this point.
For 2011 the approvals are actual and can be found from the visa report (link). Total of 67K EB2 approvals of which 32K went to Eb2-IC and 35K to EB2-ROW. EB2-ROW actually used a little spillover in 2011. I haven't even added the CP cases in these approvals but they won't be a lot.



kd, i am only trying to understand the big gap between PERM and I485 for ROW. Can you explain the 19K gap in 2011 and 2012. I agree with you on PERM but the porting cases will not necessarily reduce EB3-WW demand. If these cases are post 2007 then they would not have filed I-485 yet in EB3. Is your alternate theory an increase in inter-country marriages in last two years ?

PERM and I-485 are not necessarily approved or adjudicated in the same calendar year or fiscal year they are filed. 2010 and 2011 saw faster PERM approvals and subsequently reduction in PERM backlogs. This resulted in higher visa demand and I-485 approvals for 2011 and 2012. The ripples just continue on. End of fiscal year 2012 saw retrogression for EB2-ROW so there will be higher demand in fiscal year 2013. And so it goes on.

If we get a full 2 years of consistent PERM processing, quick I485 approvals and no retrogression for EB2-ROW with low PERM numbers to begin with and if we still see high demand then something is up.

[Spectator]

Is out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5803.html

No change for EB2-I

EB2-C advances to 22OCT07.

No forecasts in the VB, unfortunately.

UPDATE:

A forecast has now been added.

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (monthly)

Worldwide dates:
F1: three or four weeks
F2A: four to six weeks
F2B: three to five weeks
F3: one or two weeks
F4: one or two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: five to eight weeks
India: no movement

Employment Third:

Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: one to two months
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: one to three weeks

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current*

*The following advisory is based strictly on the current demand situation. Since demand patterns can (and sometimes do) change over time, this should be considered a worst case scenario at this point.

It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013. Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period. This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future, with the possible exception of the China Employment Fifth preference category mentioned above.

[abcx13]

This has been true for a while, and others might have pointed out this idiosyncrasy before, but EB2I is now behind EB3-ROW. Just wonderful...

[bookworm]

Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.

[Spectator]

Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.

Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.

CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.

He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.

Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.

[bookworm]

Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.

CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.

He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.

Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.

I missed the pre-adjudicated part in my thought process. Keeping my fingers crossed for the last qtr of this fiscal.

[sbhagwat2000]

They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every month

[Spectator]

They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every month

There has been the odd month when it hasn't been published.

It's very annoying.

[Spectator]

I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.

I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.

To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.

In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.

The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.

So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.

Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.

However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.

It leaves approvals front and back loaded.

Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.

Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.

Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.

[kkruna]

Demand data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[sbhagwat2000]

I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.

I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.

To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.

In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.

The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.

So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.

Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.

However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.

It leaves approvals front and back loaded.

Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.

Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.

Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.

Thats good analysis makes sense. To add to that I think and correct me if I am wrong - In that same time period where EB2 WW is going to go up I think EB2 I approvals would be less than what they are today as they would have worked through the demand that they could not clear from 2012 for applications before sept 2004. At that time it would be the normal monthly intefiling requests and not what we have today which is - Normal interfiling requests + those that were not worked on when the dates were U. So may be just may be dates for EB2 I may move some in second quarter.

[srimurthy]

The Visa bulletin is also out and no change in dates:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5803.html

[imdeng]

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

[imdeng]

Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:

PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50

Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?

Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

[abcx13]

Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:

PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50

Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?

Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?

[imdeng]

There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?

[abcx13]

There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.

Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?

[imdeng]

AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.

Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?

[Spectator]

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

imdeng,

As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.

By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.

That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.

Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

[abcx13]

AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.

I don't understand - let's say you had an EB3 I140 approved post July 2007 but then didn't get to file I485. You then got a new PERM and had an EB2 I140 approved in 2008, 2009 or whenever. Now this EB2 application could be pre-adjudicated and would still show up in EB2 demand data but with a post-July 2007 PD. This would still be porting but I think your math is not counting this.

[openaccount]

imdeng,


Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

Spec if 6k is just for Pds prior to Sep2004, as dates move(when ever that happens) porting will be proportional for those years(post Sep2004). As interfiling does not take much time when PD is current they will be eventually added to DD which would pull PD further behind.

[sbhagwat2000]

imdeng,

As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.

By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.

That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.

Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

Spec,

I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.

bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .

[sbhagwat2000]

bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .

Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.

You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -

Me - Hi Ron,

The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased

Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.

Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?

Ron - Yes, that is correct.

[Kanmani]

bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7904#post27904