EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Kanmani]

if an RFE is generated before priority date get current, Will the case be removed from demand, as the case is no more pre-adjudicated?

Matt, you may have to read my earlier post here first....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6121#post36121

Adding a case to IVAMS is spontaneous, but in the case of removal, request should sent to DoS with reasons.

I don't think they'll remove from the Demand.

[druvraj]

So what is the final SO count that we have somewhat agreed upon.

8-18K are the extreme range right?

mid point 13K, Should clear all application up to March 15 2008 if FIFO.

[MATT2012]

Matt, you may have to read my earlier post here first....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6121#post36121

Adding a case to IVAMS is spontaneous, but in the case of removal, request should sent to DoS with reasons.

I don't think they'll remove from the Demand.

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

[tanu_75]

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

Is it still the case that more RFE's are originating from TSC than from NSC. Or has NSC started issuing considerable amount of RFE's too. Combined with a significant move in PD's, this asymmetry in service center RFE's could potentially cause problems with later NSC PD's getting approved and earlier PD TSC RFE'ed folks not getting approved.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Guru's

Does anyone have a historical data of FB Spillovers to EB Category - atleast in the last few years?

I want to know if the 18K we received this year - was exorbitantly big # or if its the closest vicinity in the past?

thanks

[NOV2007]

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/aug...edictions.html

Is it still the case that more RFE's are originating from TSC than from NSC. Or has NSC started issuing considerable amount of RFE's too. Combined with a significant move in PD's, this asymmetry in service center RFE's could potentially cause problems with later NSC PD's getting approved and earlier PD TSC RFE'ed folks not getting approved.

[indiani]

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/aug...edictions.html

Just like you said that is just another blog, there is no way for anyone to exactly predict the COD in august bulletin.
The only day yow know with 100% certainity is the date bulletin is released, even at AILA whatever CO says he can always make slight adjustments ( but AILA conference is the only time we will have any more reliable info ).

Until then what everyone believes is aug/ sept COD will land somewhere in feb 2008.

even though i consider spec to be the best guy next to CO in predicting things , he has his limitations in the data available to him and moreover he cannot "develop strategy " , CO has to do it.

I can understand your anxiety and I am even more anxious than you are but this is my 2 cents.

[indiani]

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

I am not sure what you mean by attorney delay, assuming all RFE's asking the same which is EVL, EAD etc., if the employer is willing to sign EVL we can respond the RFE on our own, correct me if I am wrong.

I think kanmani is spot on and now I think I can see the positive side of all the RFes .
Now IO don't have to ask RFE in the last moment in august/sept., everything will be sorted out and hopefully will ready to send out cards beginning aug 1st.

[indiani]

So what is the final SO count that we have somewhat agreed upon.

8-18K are the extreme range right?

mid point 13K, Should clear all application up to March 15 2008 if FIFO.

10K will take to Feb 2008, which CO described as best case scenario ( atleast thats the way i understood)

[qesehmk]

Nov2007,

There are many copycat blogs who try to do what we try to do here and we certainly wish them the best. Personally I would not read too much into such predictions on other sites - for the simple reason that they lack original content, rigor, open and collaborative analysis.

I am yet to see any other blog that has a collective open and transparent way of predictions/analysis as this blog has. And most of these blogs follow us - not the other way round.

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/aug...edictions.html

[MATT2012]

I am not sure what you mean by attorney delay, assuming all RFE's asking the same which is EVL, EAD etc., if the employer is willing to sign EVL we can respond the RFE on our own, correct me if I am wrong.

I think kanmani is spot on and now I think I can see the positive side of all the RFes .
Now IO don't have to ask RFE in the last moment in august/sept., everything will be sorted out and hopefully will ready to send out cards beginning aug 1st.

Many employers will not let the individuals respond directly other than through the corporate immigration attorney. But as you said some will be comfortable in responding to EVL RFE directly without an attorney.

I also think Kanmani is correct and the approach helps with the fairness of the process.

Spec/Viz: Any thoughts on visa allocation while pending RFE response?

[Spectator]

Hey Guru's

Does anyone have a historical data of FB Spillovers to EB Category - atleast in the last few years?

I want to know if the 18K we received this year - was exorbitantly big # or if its the closest vicinity in the past?

thanks

SeekingGC2013,

FY2013 -- 18,000 or thereabouts
FY2012 --- 4,951
FY2011 ------- 0
FY2010 -- 10,657
FY2009 ------- 0
FY2008 -- 22,704

[Niksammy]

Advance Parole - Class of Admission

Gurus,

I need to renew my Advance Parole document and I have a question regarding 'Class of Admission' on form I-131.

I last entered USA in April 2010 on a H1 B visa. My H1 B visa expired in Aug 2011 and since then, I have been working on EAD based on my pending I-485 (AOS).

My question is, what information should I enter in question number 3 on Form i-131(Class of Action) :
- The status on which I entered US last time (which would be H1-B)
- Current status (which is AoS)

Appreciate any help in this regard.

PS: I had asked this question in Advanced Parole forum 2 days ago, but since not as many people visit that section of the blog, I decided to post it here. Please feel free to remove it.

[wheeler234]

Gurus, my PD is Feb-5th 2008, Any thoughts on PD for Aug/Sep VB? I missed the boat last time and I am very anxious if the PD in Aug/Sep will cross this date.

[vizcard]

Many employers will not let the individuals respond directly other than through the corporate immigration attorney. But as you said some will be comfortable in responding to EVL RFE directly without an attorney.

I also think Kanmani is correct and the approach helps with the fairness of the process.

Spec/Viz: Any thoughts on visa allocation while pending RFE response?

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

[indiani]

Gurus, my PD is Feb-5th 2008, Any thoughts on PD for Aug/Sep VB? I missed the boat last time and I am very anxious if the PD in Aug/Sep will cross this date.

99% your PD will be current

[indiani]

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

Suing is not something we usually resort to for the fear of re-purscussions, as the burden of proof is on us to "prove beyond reasonable doubt" that we are eligible and we do not have the "RIGHT " for GC, it is just a privilege.
senator's or congressman's office is best bet when we need help.

I am planning to send RFE today or tomorrow to lawyer and they will overnight fedex to uscis ( Its dallas address ).

so I hope atleast mine should be ready to go when the dates move in august / sept.

[MATT2012]

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

Thanks Viz, I do think Kanmani's view point is fair and most probable scenario but was not sure about the legality of it, just because the RFEs happened before VB is compiled. I think between the agencies, they would have figured a way to manage the same.

Regarding the demand until the cutoff date movement- The law firm guessing of PD movement until August 2008 according to me is a stretch, and was not sure how porting cases are accounted in the scenario. I am hoping CO is not too aggressive where by leaving some cases un-approved where PD is current. Though, I would love to see movement surpassing our most optimistic scenarios, if visas are available.

[erikbond101]

Q,
You are 100% right. When these guys started the blog in September it was all wild prediction and copy/paste from different website including USCIS/DHS. Now they understand a bit and writing like a law firm that COD will be Sept 8 2007" . My own assumption says that they come to Q's website and then write the article. They do not have any original analysis.
It causes anguish to me that they are playing with people sentiments.

Nov2007,

There are many copycat blogs who try to do what we try to do here and we certainly wish them the best. Personally I would not read too much into such predictions on other sites - for the simple reason that they lack original content, rigor, open and collaborative analysis.

I am yet to see any other blog that has a collective open and transparent way of predictions/analysis as this blog has. And most of these blogs follow us - not the other way round.

[Spectator]

If the dates are going to move "best case" to Feb 2008 then why issue RFE's for any date beyond Feb 2008. Is it random or is there any logic behind it?

There are very few cases beyond March 2008 that have received a RFE, judging by the information available.

If I were USCIS, I would build in a small contingency as well in case DOS moved the dates a little more. March only represents about 1.3k extra cases.

[desitiger]

There are very few cases beyond March 2008 that have received a RFE, judging by the information available.

If I were USCIS, I would build in a small contingency as well in case DOS moved the dates a little more. March only represents about 1.3k extra cases.

Not sure what the breakdown is between pre-March 2008 and March+Post March 2008 cases that have received RFE. The sample set that is available to us is from trackitt or this forum, which may or may not be right representation of the complete set. I am not trying to argue for the dates to move beyond March, I would love if they go beyond march but I am just trying to understand the logic that why would someone issue an RFE beyond x date when you know that x is the max you can go to. I understand x+1 move to build up some buffer in case all RFE's dont get a response but dont understand why would you do x+10. This gives me two indications:
1) The automated system that is or was generating the RFEs was not given a End date and was only given some other parameters/conditions.
2) There is something missing that we dont understand.

[Spectator]

Not sure what the breakdown is between pre-March 2008 and March+Post March 2008 cases that have received RFE. The sample set that is available to us is from trackitt or this forum, which may or may not be right representation of the complete set. I am not trying to argue for the dates to move beyond March, I would love if they go beyond march but I am just trying to understand the logic that why would someone issue an RFE beyond x date when you know that x is the max you can go to. I understand x+1 move to build up some buffer in case all RFE's dont get a response but dont understand why would you do x+10. This gives me two indications:
1) The automated system that is or was generating the RFEs was not given a End date and was only given some other parameters/conditions.
2) There is something missing that we dont understand.

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

[qesehmk]

Agree Spec and that I would imagine be an excellent indicator of where the dates are going to settle. I am afraid that; given the buffer that USCIS needs to account for denials and delays corresponding to RFEs; Mar 2008 in reality could mean sustainable level of date movement could be even more conservative than what we are thinking. But of course the unsustainable movement could still be beyond Mar 2008.

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

[desitiger]

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

Thanks for breaking my heart. I am just kidding

[anx80_]

Mar 2008 in reality could mean sustainable level of date movement could be even more conservative than what we are thinking. But of course the unsustainable movement could still be beyond Mar 2008.

Could you please clarify what you mean by this?