Spec,
I think for each 526 there will be additional family members so the actual GC approval rate should be
1526x 2x 2.9 (approximately)= 8850
assuming the rate of approvals will be the same in the second half of the year. (I hope the approval rate drops slightly)
your post answers the earlier question i posed to MATT
11218-8850=2368 (SO)
is it fair to say that 2k+ SO will go to EB2I?
Thanks for explaining, I saw your post after i have seen Spec's reply to you , both are quite clear in explaining total GC's. please see my SO calculation and see if you agree or if spec and you have different numberOriginally Posted by MATT2012
Last year's stats if anyone wants to refresh their memories
Priority workers 39,316
Professionals with advanced degrees 50,959
Skilled workers, professionals, unskilled workers 39,229
Special immigrants 7,866
Investors 6,628
indiani,
I think those are the DHS figures.
The slightly more reliable DOS figures are slightly different, particularly for EB5.
EB1 - 39,387
EB2 - 50,593
EB3 - 39,549
EB4 - 7,478
EB5 - 7,641
Don't ask me why they are different - there are always some differences between the DOS and DHS figures.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
The Good news is atleast something this year is lower than last. I think now I am pretty confident that EB5 can end at 9900.
Overall there appears to be 50% increase in EB5 usage of i-526 in the first half and if the demand is the same for second half, then EB 5 SO is barely 1-2K approximately (which was already expected to be very low to almost zero )
I think July bulletin will give us more clues than any other piece of information at this time.
I don't know what you meant, the only category I am hoping will be lower this yera is EB1, as we already know EB5, EB2ROW will be higher than last year. EB4 I am not sure but there is no evidence so far that it will be lower
Spec,
Though there is a 25% drop in first half I526 approvals, I do think that this FY the number will be between 8500 - 9500, given the fact that October 2012 had 3162 EB5 GC approvals.
Matt,
I agree.
For full disclosure, I quoted the last year H1 figure.
There is also a much increased backlog of I-526 cases to draw from. Even in the first half of the year, it increased from 5k to 6.5k for pending cases and those awaiting customer action. It is now nearly double the number in Oct 2011.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
But realistically now I think we can say EB5 will not suck the extra FB visas allocated to it. It should stop at 9900
spec,
what is your estimation of SO EB4 and EB1 at this time.
If it hasnt changed from your 1st page prediction, you don't have to give any new numbers, just wondering over the course of time if you have any different perspective.
with AILA meeting at the end of this month, i think most of the arduous calculations might not be necessary for rest of this fiscal year.
Source: http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...i7U685P2fN5Gh6
Thanks to amytkats for this information.
Executive Summary
The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin. EB-3 cut-off dates are expected to progress to January 2009 for most countries in July, though further advancement is unlikely for the remainder of this fiscal year.
The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin, according to Charles Oppenheim, the senior State Department official responsible for visa control. The EB-2 India cut-off date has been stalled at September 1, 2004 since October 2012.
EB-2 China is likely to advance no more than a few weeks per month through the end of this fiscal year.
For most countries, including China, priority dates for the EB-3 professional and skilled worker subcategory are projected to advance as far as January 2009 in July, though further progression is unlikely for the remainder of this fiscal year. EB-3 India is expected to advance by up to two weeks per month through the end of the fiscal year.
Mr. Oppenheim made his projections at the annual symposium of the American Council on International Personnel, held this week.
What EB-2 India Advancement Means for Employers and Foreign Nationals
If the EB-2 India cut-off date advances as predicted in the coming months, many adjustment applicants with long-pending cases could see their applications adjudicated to completion, and some foreign nationals who were unable to file permanent residence applications when their priority dates were current in the past might have a new opportunity to file.
The exact cut-off date will not be known until the State Department releases a Visa Bulletin announcing the advancement. The Bulletin is usually issued about three weeks before the month to which it applies.
When their priority dates become current, adjustment applicants with pending cases may need to provide supplemental documentation so that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services can finalize their cases. Applicants could be asked to provide updated job letters from their employer-sponsors, and may need to attend another biometrics appointment so that new fingerprints can be taken. Applicants should also be prepared for the possibility of an adjustment interview at a local USCIS office. Though interviews are not routine in employment-based cases, agency adjudicators have the authority to refer specific cases for local office interviews.
Eligible Indian EB-2s who do not have an adjustment application on file with USCIS will need to act quickly if their priority date becomes current because the chance to file an adjustment may be brief. It is not known how many EB-2 India visa numbers will become available when the cut-off date advances, and many available numbers are likely to be captured by cases already on file, including an unspecified number of pending cases that have been upgraded from EB-3 to EB-2.
Thanks for sharing important information.
I think the time period falls in the possible range that most Gurus having been working for a while now.
My personal opinion is that CO tries to give away most cautious cut off date so the actual date might be couple of months later, in the sense it could finally end up at april 2008 (approx.) ( but again this is based on the logic that CO rarely wants to raise hopes for date which will be very difficult to achieve)
Moreover there aren't that many unpredictable factors left for CO at this time, so I am very positive that it will cross feb 2008.
What i hoped for is that he make the move in july when he clearly knows about the usage in all areas by now and not wait till august or sept ; first time filers will have zero hope of getting GC , if they file in september and the dates retrogress in oct.2013
Porting cases would have a bearing on the final COD.
My guess is CO might have known approximate porting numbers possible and still might have predicted the Feb 2008 date.
July bulletin will give more clarity by knowing not only the cut off date but future predictions.
AILA meeting at the end of the month will be helpful as well as the august bulletin too.
In september usually movements tend to be very little.,
for 2007 and earlier folks hopefully the drama might end in next few months.
it is good that CO predicted, dates will move to Feb 2008 for EB2I. it will be better if the dates move ahead of it. Even a smallest movement further than that, a few more are getting out of this long wait. Let us hope and pray for that.
Thanks,
Matt
It seems every now and then CO is meeting with different law firms and predicting random dates. I remember last 2 months also he predicted dates for different law firms. Guess he likes creating drama.
Anyway Feb 2008 will not be a bad end to this fiscal year. Hopefully dates will end in later part of 2008 so that more people get much awaited green card.
Matt,
as i said in previous posts, CO always tries to give predictions on cautious side ( or conservative prediction ), most likely my guess is it might end up being something like april 2013.
I believe the only not so clear picture for CO is the porting numbers which he can only estimate but will not have exact figures compared to stuff like the GC's approved in various categories, the DD etc. which he will have almost precise number by now.
Hi Matt
If the dates are at Feb 2008 in Sep VB then what would they do in Oct. VB?Retro or they may move dates ahead as new Visas will be available?
Thanks!
Hi - My PD is Nov 2007 and I am hoping that I will be current soon. What are the chances that I wont get GC this fiscal year? I am worried that it might happen like 2012 when inspite of being current for a few months - I did not get the GC.
Sure it would be great if dates move way beyond in 2008 and hopefully 2009. For me, PD is EB2I Feb 15th 2008, I-140 approved, EB3 to EB2 porting case. it is going to be an edge case. I hope the predictions are conservative (good for all)
Any predictions from the gurus on what will be July movement especially after hearing CO's statements?
Summer 2007 and here is why:
CO have to get good feel of all possible porting before he can make final movement,
It is safe period where the number of visas needed to fulfill DD is not that much.
Previously before this news came out my range was jan to aug 2007 but now I think aug 2007.
what i really hope is of coourse jan 1 2008 as I will be current
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