EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[sandeep11]

Just found this on cilawgroup:

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...tober-24-2012/

[sbhagwat2000]

One thing to note is in the article it says these are short term predictions. So I think these may change next year and EB2 I could move. Looking at the demand data of 1100 ( and that also includes most of the interfilings from may to oct) its difficult to see what CO is saying. also the 1100 is before 2006 so all of that is not before 2004 sept. I still think EB2 I will move after 4-6 mos

[harapatta2012]

sandeep11
Thanks, this was posted sometime ago.

All,

I do not understand why EB3-EB2 porting especially for EB3I-EB2I is being just a gamechanger now. I am not denying that as EB3I with PD in 2004-2006 gets more experience, they would port and therefore porting would GRADUALLY increase, which is fine.
What is not understood is : Is there EXPONENTIAL increase in porting that we are worried here?

Just found this on cilawgroup:

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...tober-24-2012/

[geevikram]

Guys,
I read the report from CO and he has not provided any new information. We all know that he is going to allocate 200 odd visas to EB2I until later next year. We also know that porting is high. We also know that EB2WW and EB5 usage has increased. The only other factor is, we don't know how the past trend will hold up. A lot depends on economy. Even if economy sneezes a bit (which I don't want), we will have a lot less filings in EB2 WW and porting will reduce leading to more spillover. There are just so many variables that without latest inventory and accurate future usage, we can only guess. Since CO does not know future trends, he is guessing too.

Remember, he is the same person who told us that he will try to bring the dates forward to 2010 by this time. It hasn't happened. There is no cause for worry. I do believe we will get a healthy spillover as economy is not chumming along for any non-tech related field (source of most EB2-ROW visas) and when economy nose dives EB1 and EB5 filings take a hit too. On the other hand, it is great cause of worry as it affects many of our jobs directly. Cross your fingers and hold on to your job. You may just get lucky.

[abcx13]

EB2-I needs an SOFAD of at least 21K (18+3 ballpark) to just stay on the treadmill. That's what I have learned from this forum. If you exclude porting, you would still need 18K.

Hence, the SOFAD required to stay in the game comprises of a large number, and porting makes up only 14% of that number. We need the other 86%. If porting was absent, but the SOFAD was absent too, life in EB2-I will suck. Is it really comforting if the PD was moving 1 week every month versus if it was frozen?

Let's not blame the porters. I keep thinking of the same 6 letters that is the only hope for everyone now - HR3012.

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

[Spectator]

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.

[abcx13]

I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.

I thought the estimate here was only 3-5k porting?

[bvsamrat]

Given the number of H1B filing last 2 years, future will bring back normalcy- IMHO
Also with 2004 being PD for EB2 as of now, less incentive for porters as of immediate.

My guess is that Mid 2008 is still possible this FY for Eb2-I

Afterwords who knows---

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

[openaccount]

CO comments are based past 6 months usage May-October 2012. He will come with a totally different theory than what he is saying now after 6 months.

We can only wait for Inventory reports from USCIS and keep on guessing.
EB2I movement depends on how much EB2WW is going to consume between Jan-Jun2013.

[vizcard]

This just means you'll get US citizenship (if you want it) a year latter than initially though. I realize that GC lifts the weight off peoples shoulders but having EAD/AP is just as good in the short term. I don't want this to become a discussion about merits or otherwise of GC and EAD but my point is don't freak out if the situation is bleak.

Focus on things that you can control (lobbying?) and on things that are important in life (family, health, etc.)

[pch053]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...m_medium=email

I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.

[sbhagwat2000]

I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.

I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2I

[yank]

From Murthy;

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/vis...tions-for-eb2/

[Spectator]

I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2I

The other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.

Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.

Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.

In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.

In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.

I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.

[veni001]

From Murthy;

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/vis...tions-for-eb2/

Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.

[makmohan]

Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.

Friends,

From this murthy post and what gurus have said, looks like there is no chance of my PD (EB2I Apr08) being current again in 2013 fiscal yr.

I'm changing my job to somewhat similar code - SE to BA - 15-1132 to 15-1121). Employer will be extending my H1 (lawyer suggestion, as backup, in case of any AC21 issues)

I don't think it's worth letting big opportunities go just like that. I'll keep the forum posted.

-Mohan

[yank]

Q,

I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.

Would appreciate your response.

[qesehmk]

Yank - my take is 100% within 1 years. 20% within 6 months (i.e. assuming quarterly spillover kicks in). All the best!

Q,

I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.

Would appreciate your response.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All Gurus

My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?

I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014

1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?

[qesehmk]

I have updated header with general guidance for all interested in GC. Will add analysis later this week.

[Spectator]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

[vizcard]

Hey All Gurus

My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?

I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014

1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?

It is possible that you will get your GC in Q1 2014 but that is dependent on how CO wants to manage it.

1. Yes you do. You EAD is not a GC. You run a risk of a RFE and not having requisite docs.
2. You can use your current one and then switch to the new one (btw if you are not changing employers why are u switching from H1 to EAD?)
3. No issue there
4. Your EAD has nothing to do with GC. You can work on your H1 or EAD and quit any time after your GC.
5. See #1.

[sbhagwat2000]

The other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.

Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.

Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.

In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.

In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.

I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.

Spec,

So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be great

[Spectator]

Spec,

So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be great

I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

[bvsamrat]

EB2-ROW - another view- As the retroressed Eb2-Row caught up in the frist month itself- clearing the backlog and also meeting the current demand, it is more than likely that they may give a good spill over

What about inventory? - If it drops to less than a good number, is there a chance for making dates progress again >2010 (in FY2014) to get more inventory?

I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.