Matt,Originally Posted by MATT2012
One quick question - What do you want to see in the next 485 inventory and what you don't want to see?
Lately, I have been feeling very pessimistic on the date movements and just trying to stay positive by talking to few optimistic folks around like you...
One more post in trackitt abt lawyer having meeting with CO and CO indicating very little movement in EB2I.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
surprising is CO is saying EB2WW may retrogress. This is crazy. Why dont they just speak officially.
I look at inventory for drops/increases in each category, especially EB1 and EB2ROW.
I understand June bulletin did spread some new pessimism around EB2I.
As 'Q' pointed out in one of his earlier replies, all that we are trying to do is, make the best judgement from the limited set of information. Most of us also try our best to explain why we think one way or other. Let us hope for the best.
Matt
CO had to retrogress EB2 across the board, last year,because of over-allocation of visas to EB2-IC too early and then he was blitzed by the surge in EB1 demand.. When forced with a choice to put a COD on EB1 or EB2, he made the obvious choice to push dates back for EB2-WW
IF EB2WW uses all its allocation, the visas from FB will be diverted towards EB2WW in attempts to keep it current.. For EB2WW to retrogress, the demand will have to be > 45k.. The current trends do not show as much demand.. The only factor that might push it over the threshold is if porting happens at a rapid rate from EB3 to EB2(ww).. If that happens, EB2I is screwed royally and we wont even see dates moving into 2007..the chances of this happening and therefore EB2-WW retrogressing are very very low.. Absolute worst case scenario..
June Bulletin put a damper on EB2-I expectations.. But frankly, most of us had sort of expected this.. He is moving dates very cautiously. Since the announcement of 18k visas came in Feb and yet the SO is not applied yet,it is evident that his intention is two pronged - to clear the pre-adjudicated numbers from the inventory and to add new/porting cases to replenish the inventory... I feel for the next couple of years, the movements will follow the pattern similar to 2008-2010.. 3 steps forward(clearing pre-adjudicated inventory) and 1 step back(new cases added because of porting).
I doubt the EB2WW will consume any additional spillover than what is already allocated to them from FB, but the data is fluid, allocations complicated and at the end of the end no accountability. so with Nov 2007 PD, I have just bare minimum hopes that this fiscal year that it will be current. the US immigration system is one of the most nonsensical system, I think even with best intentions of CO it might be chaotic when its only 2-3 months to make the moves. If there is no movement by august bulletin , I will just change my job on EAD and forget about the GC.
The member who posted this has already got his GC under EB1B category. Very Strange to see these kind of exchange of PD movement discussions .
Whatever it is, very hard to digest these speculations and uncertainty!
This is the worst case scenario I could think of...
Dates wont move in July (or just few weeks with regular Eb2I quota, not from FB or EB SO) becos CO has not figured out the SOFAD yet and he thinks its still too early in the fiscal.
My guess is dates move only in Sep, I would even bet it will be current for all EB2 categories and even some EB3 categories (except India) - causing random approvals and possible wastage.
From COs perspective, date movements always seems only to generate demand (so that he can save his...) and if thats the case what I said seems to be logical...
Here is explanation of the logic:
If CO thinks that there is going to be more usage in EB1 and EB2WW in the next couple of months and if he is not 100% sure about what the SOFAD would be (the way he has been cautious all this year, there is no way he will be 100% sure of the SOFAD even for Sep) - he will NOT move the dates in Jul/Aug and he may end up with around 43k SOFAD (25k EB + 18K FB) and he has to add a buffer of around 20% to it for cases that would be RFE'd, duplicates, abandoned, etc and he may end up with a 50k SOFAD to be allocated in one last month of the Fiscal. So he has no option other than to make every EB2 category current (becos as of now there is only 48k EB2 total demand) and he has to move EB3 dates for most of the chargeability areas where he is not sure of what the demand would be (for some chargeabilities he may have to make it current).
A SOFAD of 50k is highly unlikely as none of the experts predicted that much but it is not impossible either (with FB SO and the downside of CO being cautious all these months, I would even say it is possible).
Also this would be possible, only if CO truly thinks that he should not waste any of the visas. For any reason, if he thinks that CIR would be out in some form or another next year and he can recapture all the unused EB visas from the previous years, then he will not move the dates at all, even in Sep.
I know it is pessimism to the extreme!!!
I really doubt this would happen. It would be a slap in the face for the 2007 folks. I personally don't care about what happens to the porters (no offense) but the legit EB2 folks might get screwed with random approvals.
Based on past history, CO generally has a sense of SOFAD by Q4. I think he will move the dates in the July VB and definitely in the Aug VB. These moves will be to clear out 2007 and before demand (incl any new porters). He will definitely have enough SOFAD to clear out 2007 unless something totally crazy is going on behind the scenes (we should know more about this when the inventory report comes out).
He would then move the dates in the Sept VB to accomodate 2008 PDs if there are visas left. In the Sept VB, I can see him moving it to Q2 - Q3 2008 and letting the chips fall to make sure that no visas get wasted.
Someone posted the link to Ware Gasparian law firm on trackitt.
http://david-ware.com/immigration-in...ant-advances-0
Law firm has posted that they met CO. It says "not to expect advances in the India EB 2 until very close to the end of the fiscal year, and then only a few weeks."
I am hoping that its not true, but at the same time I am debating why would a law firm post something on their website if the information was not valid.
This is scary news and this is the reason why it worries me:
1. The law firm is not going to make up stuff especially with pessimistic news.
2. The CO obviously is aware of the FB spillover by that time.
3. There is nothing in the june bulletin which mentioned any significant advances.
But what doesnt make any sense at all is that even a 2K spillover should advance several months and how can CO be so pessimistic to indicate only few weeks of movement.
I was the one who posted it and believe pls don't believe this guy. First it's diff to believe that no lawyer was invited but ware. Co always has meetings with a Grp not individuals. I would treat it as CO saying just formally and giving the typical reply
I spoke to my lawyer and asked him about all rumors,he said EB2I dates will move from next month onwards.He said this is what he thinks after June VB.So hope for the best.
I also think this would happen. The main reasons are
a) Same was happening all the previous years
b) CO does not have to think or assume things. But will have to act at the time when it comes. He would not have to loose sleep if Visa numbers are lost or gained or borrowed from next year.
c) Hence best bet for him would be to sit tight till the time things are clear and make dates leap to 2-3 years by July/August and 3-5 years by August/ September.
d) Repeat the same for next year. If EB2 WW gets retrogress for 1 or months at the year end. let it be?
Another random thought.
You said "Borrowed from next year", Is it a random comment or did you see any indications of that happening in the past, especially in 2012?
I have never seen that happen.
Also, I don't think bvsamrats prediction as a plausible scenario. I don't see any chance that he will move 4-5 yrs after moving to 2007-mid 2008. Remember there is demand to last 2 whole yrs and probably then some (~50k). He doesn't need to build inventory this FY.
He will move dates (beyond March 2010) in the summer of 2014 (without CIR) or make them current (with CIR).
Hi,
I just wrote to my lawyer Murthy for a possible information on the EB2I scenario. They told me no information on EB2I was received from USICS/CO. I do not know if this is just CYA or they genuinely have no information on the EB2I movement.
I think we all should take it easy and wait for next bulletin.. I know it is not easy to wait, but we do not have much control...Q, Spec, MATT etc have predicted by squeezing the numbers as much as they can.
I'm on waiting mode too..Any information by law firms will only add more panic or unnecessary euphoria..but in the end,,July Bulletin will be the Real "Reality" and we need to accept it.
NSC, EB2I, PD: Dec 31,07, RD: Dec 21,2011, ND: Dec 27, 2011, EAD/AP: Feb 2011, I485: Waiting.
I140 Amendment filed along with 485 due to company acquisition. . Amended I140 approved. RFE received on 485 application. Submitted proof in May 2012.
It has happened for EB2I too in the past. Check the VBs in early 2008s. But I think, the SOFAD was SOFDA at that time.
I agree with you Viz - but CO ain't smart either!
Matt - Can this be due to the quick 485 processing happening and people (especially EB1 folks) don't even have time to update their cases in Trackitt.
When it comes to EB1 (EB1C in particular), I have seen cases who just landed in US here and before even they can figure out which is the best school district around for their kids, they had got their GC in hand. So with their busy work schedule (LOL!) and the limited time they have to spend in Zillow and other sites to buy home/Land, I don't think they might have had time to update their cases in Trackitt - for that matter, not many EB1C knows Trackitt either, forget about Q's Blog (no offense here, just a funny note!)
Trackitt generally have only EB1 Indian cases, the other cases are very few. So using just trackitt for EB1 will not help us. The number of Indian cases also may have come down in trackitt due to general negative sentiments around misuse of EB1C. just my opinion. A 20% drop is very difficult to believe. I personally think it is around 7% drop. But at the same time I dont want to totally ignore trackitt trends, especially because this is the first proper year after Karzarian.
Hi All Guru's,
I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.
I know its a difficult decision but if possible, I'd hold off making career decisions until the Sept VB (released in August) at the latest. My personal belief is that you will be current by the Aug VB. It should not stop you from exploring options even now and letting prospective employers that will not be able to join until Oct 1. Some companies might not want to wait but others might.
Hi NOV2007,
I feel the point of the all the analysis and data provided along with these predictions is to enable users to make proper/calculated decisions themselves. It would be unfair to call out to any guru to offer guarantees on something which they cannot control. That being said, and also with the disclaimer that I am not a guru.... I would put the chances of PD reaching your date this FY at good (70 -80%). However, if you already have an ED and a better job I would suggest that you should make the move. Suffering through a stressful job for sake of GC when a good alternative is available, from my point of view, is not worth it. After all one of the big benefits of GC is better opportunity.. and looks like you already have it. By the time you settle down in your job and start getting stressful again(just kidding).... the queue would have cleared and your GC would be on its way.
Well said Viz and though I understand the frustration by Nov2007, I am fully agree with Viz. I am also in the same boat having PD Dec 2007 without EAD. Please don't ask me how did I miss the train
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