EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[MATT2012]

Matt

I don't really understand the 2007-2012 demand since they were not current at any point.

it is essentially 2007 applicants, but that is how demand data words it.

[qesehmk]

erikbond - I think this is consistent with our observation of about 3-6K porting in EB3IC. 2500 reduction between Nov-May => 5K reduction in full year. Rest 1600 half year reduction => 3.2K full year reduction.

The 5K is porting. 3.2K is quota/approvals. Of course both figures will include some denials withdrawals also.

Now if you add them together 8.2 and multiply by 2 years .... gives 16.4 which is also consistent with 14.7 number you gave in two years. The difference of 1.7K suggests, the pace of porting has accelerated as people in EB3 have become more experienced and moved up the ladder and possibly have their employers move them into EB2.

Makes sense?

Hi,
Can some one please explain why EB3-I demand data numbers are reducing at faster rate (4275 in 7 months)? Are preadjudicated numbers for EB2I is causing this reduction in EB3I? April 2007 was current for EB2I in Sep 2011 and was continued to be available till April 2012.

Difference in Nov 12 and May 13 Demand data
2012 47,125 42,850 -------- 4275
2007 43,500 39,375 -------- 4125
2006 33,700 30,000 -------- 3700
2005 25,650 22,300 -------- 3350
2004 13,275 10,775 -------- 2500
2003 2,300 650 -------- 1650

In 7 months EB3-I numbers are reduced by 1650 for pre Jan 1st 2003. This may be regular quota. But what about extra 2500+ reduction of EB3I in other FYs.

June 2011 demand data had 57,450 pending I-485 and now it has gone down to 42,850 in May 2013. That means decrease of 14700 in 2 years.

[vizcard]

it is essentially 2007 applicants, but that is how demand data words it.

Yeah..i got it..i just totally skipped over that. Had my weekly "duh" moment.

[vizcard]

Q, Spec, Matt,
I'm not sure if I posted this before and already got an answer or not but I figured I'd post it anyway. If its already been discussed just summarize the result or point me to those posts.

The general consensus is that dates will end up being between March and June-ish 2008 in FY13. That's assuming a flat monthly distribution for 2008 PDs. The reality is that a high number of Dec 2011 filers (Jan - Mar 2008 PDs) and even the first half of Jan 2012 filers got approved last year itself. One could argue that the monthly distribution for 2008 is skewed heavier towards Q2-Q4 2008. Given this I imagine that dates could potentially move a month (or more) further than that with a flat monthly distribution.

Thoughts?

[MATT2012]

Q, Spec, Matt,
I'm not sure if I posted this before and already got an answer or not but I figured I'd post it anyway. If its already been discussed just summarize the result or point me to those posts.

The general consensus is that dates will end up being between March and June-ish 2008 in FY13. That's assuming a flat monthly distribution for 2008 PDs. The reality is that a high number of Dec 2011 filers (Jan - Mar 2008 PDs) and even the first half of Jan 2012 filers got approved last year itself. One could argue that the monthly distribution for 2008 is skewed heavier towards Q2-Q4 2008. Given this I imagine that dates could potentially move a month (or more) further than that with a flat monthly distribution.

Thoughts?

2008 EB2I demand is relatively close in most months, a few hundred differences in some months. The quarterly break up from January inventory data is - Qtr I- 3500, Qtr II- 4400, Qtr III – 3600, Qtr ** -4500. The third quarter demand is very similar to the first quarter. for a months movement in 3 rd quarter it will only require 1200 visas. if porting turns out to be lower than expected, it could easily move ahead by a month or so.

[qesehmk]

Viz

We don't have to assume anything. 485 inventory is already crystal clear. There is slight difference between Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 density. But not much. Frankly I am puzzled because last year we did see quite a lot people from 2008 getting approved. But as per today - the answer is very clear. There is not much density difference.

Q, Spec, Matt,
I'm not sure if I posted this before and already got an answer or not but I figured I'd post it anyway. If its already been discussed just summarize the result or point me to those posts.

The general consensus is that dates will end up being between March and June-ish 2008 in FY13. That's assuming a flat monthly distribution for 2008 PDs. The reality is that a high number of Dec 2011 filers (Jan - Mar 2008 PDs) and even the first half of Jan 2012 filers got approved last year itself. One could argue that the monthly distribution for 2008 is skewed heavier towards Q2-Q4 2008. Given this I imagine that dates could potentially move a month (or more) further than that with a flat monthly distribution.

Thoughts?

[MATT2012]

Frankly I am puzzled because last year we did see quite a lot people from 2008 getting approved.

Hi Q,

We did see a lot approvals from first quarter of 2008 during last fiscal. But that did nt make a big dent in demand, as first quarter of 2008 had more labor applications due to the excitement created in summer of 2007.

Matt

[vizcard]

Very interesting. So the high influx for Q1 2008 of labor apps negated some of the "early approvals". So I suppose for now its still March t0 June 2008.

[qesehmk]

Matt - generally my observation is that labor date distribution is fairly uniform. So I am not sure if and why there was a bump in Q1 2008. Do you have some insight?

Hi Q,

We did see a lot approvals from first quarter of 2008 during last fiscal. But that did nt make a big dent in demand, as first quarter of 2008 had more labor applications due to the excitement created in summer of 2007.

Matt

Viz - my forecast has all those things baked into it. So it wouldn't change.

Very interesting. So the high influx for Q1 2008 of labor apps negated some of the "early approvals". So I suppose for now its still March t0 June 2008.

[Spectator]

I've kept stats on Trackitt applications since October 2011 which might throw some light on this.

The numbers below show the % of Trackitt applications yet to be approved and the number left to be approved.


----------- % ----- No.
---------- Not ---- Not
- PD ----- App. --- App.
Jan-08 -- 59.59% -- 115
Feb-08 -- 55.93% --- 99
Mar-08 -- 69.23% -- 108
Apr-08 -- 90.52% -- 105
May-08 -- 86.89% -- 106
Jun-08 -- 88.57% --- 93
Jul-08 -- 86.67% --- 78
Aug-08 -- 90.08% -- 118
Sep-08 -- 88.51% --- 77
Oct-08 -- 88.00% --- 88
Nov-08 -- 93.33% --- 98
Dec-08 -- 90.52% -- 105


The PERM figures show that there was indeed a spike in applications with January/February 2008 priority dates. April 2008 also looks higher than average.

[vizcard]

I've kept stats on Trackitt applications since October 2011 which might throw some light on this.

The numbers below show the % of Trackitt applications yet to be approved and the number left to be approved.


----------- % ----- No.
---------- Not ---- Not
- PD ----- App. --- App.
Jan-08 -- 59.59% -- 115
Feb-08 -- 55.93% --- 99
Mar-08 -- 69.23% -- 108
Apr-08 -- 90.52% -- 105
May-08 -- 86.89% -- 106
Jun-08 -- 88.57% --- 93
Jul-08 -- 86.67% --- 78
Aug-08 -- 90.08% -- 118
Sep-08 -- 88.51% --- 77
Oct-08 -- 88.00% --- 88
Nov-08 -- 93.33% --- 98
Dec-08 -- 90.52% -- 105


The PERM figures show that there was indeed a spike in applications with January/February 2008 priority dates. April 2008 also looks higher than average.

This is all very interesting. Based on Spec's numbers above, we have the following by quarter. The applications actually taper off in Q3 and pick back up in Q4.
Q1- 332
Q2- 304
Q3- 273
Q4- 291

I guess bottom line is that nothing in the current projections change. Hopefully the June VB/ Demand Data will provide some more useful (and positive) info. I'd love to be one of those "normal" cases - PD+5yrs. If the current projections actually realize then I'll end up as PD+6.

PS: Spec - are you an accountant or an investment banker? If not, you should consider a career change

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec for the PERM and Trackitt EB2I numbers.

I do have a few intresting observations from trackitt EB2-ROW for this fiscal. The data includes primary and dependant. Approvals are approvals for the Quarter not necessarily the applications from the same Quarter. Pending is pending from the same quarter.
Quarter - Applications- Approvals - Pending- Pending %

1st Quarter - 260 - 240 -62- 24%
2nd Quarter- 111 - 241- 55 - 50%

So far we had only one month in third quarter and number of applications are just 18 and approvals are 60. Both applications and approvals made some drops this month. Going by that statistics, EB2-ROW will have less approvals this quarter and next quarter. it may end up in 210 for the current quarter and 90 for the last quarter. 210 comes from all pending applications for last two quarters + 30 for April+60 already approved .if we allocate 30 applications for each month from May to July (30*3) around 90 approvals. By that logic 300 approvals in last two quarters. I am not sure whether I am day dreaming, but any thoughts appreciated..

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the PERM and Trackitt EB2I numbers.

I do have a few intresting observations from trackitt EB2-ROW for this fiscal. The data includes primary and dependant. Approvals are approvals for the Quarter not necessarily the applications from the same Quarter. Pending is pending from the same quarter.
Quarter - Applications- Approvals - Pending- Pending %

1st Quarter - 260 - 240 -62- 24%
2nd Quarter- 111 - 241- 55 - 50%

So far we had only one month in third quarter and number of applications are just 18 and approvals are 60. Both applications and approvals made some drops this month. Going by that statistics, EB2-ROW will have less approvals this quarter and next quarter. it may end up in 210 for the current quarter and 90 for the last quarter. 210 comes from all pending applications for last two quarters + 30 for April+60 already approved .if we allocate 30 applications for each month from May to July (30*3) around 90 approvals. By that logic 300 approvals in last two quarters. I am not sure whether I am day dreaming, but any thoughts appreciated..

Matt,

We are going to get into difficulties with the different ways that people count Trackitt applications, so I will not even try to analyze your figures. I assume you do mean ROW and not ROW/M/P.

I can only say what I am seeing.

I have kept monthly approval figures for several years in a consistent manner. You can find FY2013 vs FY2012, FY2012 vs FY2011, FY2011 vs FY2010 in the Trackitt Data section.

I will say once again that I only count Primary Trackitt applicants because, in the "real world" there is a consistent 1:1 relationship to Dependents for EB2, while on Trackitt it is Many:1.

I also count both EB2 and EB2-NIW (who are significant for EB2-ROW) and make allowances for several other factors in the Trackitt Data.

For approvals to date (for all PD), I see

Q1 - 234
Q2 - 228

April - 58 at present, for a total of 520 approvals.

That compares to an average of slightly under 50 per month in each of FY2010 - FY2012.

So, to date, the EB2-ROW approvals have not yet reduced to "normal" levels, although they are now approaching that figure.

I have not kept detailed figures about pending cases each month. What I do remember is that there were about 250 pending at any one time while approvals were high earlier this FY. That number has now reduced to around 210-220 and will probably continue to fall.

Additions do seem to have slowed, but the number already pending, plus a reduced number still to come does appear to be enough to sustain fairly healthy approval numbers for the rest of FY2013, as long as USCIS continue to process them.

It will be interesting to see what the May approvals are. Only then do I feel I can make a better judgement.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec, the lower than expected 18 EB2- ROW additions for April confused me today morning.

I knew when I put the numbers, it was not exactly same as your calculations. Also did not mean to confuse anybody with a different calculation. I was just mentioning the latest trends of dropping numbers in EB2-ROW applications and approvals. I am in full agreement with your numbers and there is sufficent backlog of applications for this quarter, but in general the approvals for this quarter will be lower than second quarter. And if new additions continues to drop in the same fashion through out this quarter, last quarter there will be significant drops in trackitt EB2-ROW approvals.

I am also in agreement with the fact that the drop in last two quarters will only have a margnial impact in annual volume due to high approvals in the first two quarters.

Matt,

I will say once again that I only count Primary Trackitt applicants because, in the "real world" there is a consistent 1:1 relationship to Dependents for EB2, while on Trackitt it is Many:1.

I also count both EB2 and EB2-NIW (who are significant for EB2-ROW) and make allowances for several other factors in the Trackitt Data.

For approvals to date (for all PD), I see

Q1 - 234
Q2 - 228

April - 58 at present, for a total of 520 approvals.

That compares to an average of slightly under 50 per month in each of FY2010 - FY2012.

So, to date, the EB2-ROW approvals have not yet reduced to "normal" levels, although they are now approaching that figure.

I have not kept detailed figures about pending cases each month. What I do remember is that there were about 250 pending at any one time while approvals were high earlier this FY. That number has now reduced to around 210-220 and will probably continue to fall.

Additions do seem to have slowed, but the number already pending, plus a reduced number still to come does appear to be enough to sustain fairly healthy approval numbers for the rest of FY2013, as long as USCIS continue to process them.

[indiani]

If USCIS decides to move the dates starting July isnt there a risk of chaos like that happened last year, leaving some 2007/ early 2008 applicants and giving away later applicants. I understand there are thousands of preadjudicated cases but still they might send RFE's to update on EVL as dates froze for so long. Moreover if they cant handle giving away more than 5 thousand per month of approvals in addition to their usual approvals for rest of categories, there is a risk they might waste visas and send it back to FB to be applied for next year. i wish we have a way of communicating to CO and finding out the exact total approvals in all categories to date and also understanding why they are still waiting to move atleast to end of december which by all accounts seems to be rational.

[vizcard]

If USCIS decides to move the dates starting July isnt there a risk of chaos like that happened last year, leaving some 2007/ early 2008 applicants and giving away later applicants. I understand there are thousands of preadjudicated cases but still they might send RFE's to update on EVL as dates froze for so long. Moreover if they cant handle giving away more than 5 thousand per month of approvals in addition to their usual approvals for rest of categories, there is a risk they might waste visas and send it back to FB to be applied for next year. i wish we have a way of communicating to CO and finding out the exact total approvals in all categories to date and also understanding why they are still waiting to move atleast to end of december which by all accounts seems to be rational.

It's a tricky proposition for CO all around. He has to balance FIFO, not wasting visas and not exceeding quotas. Last year he was 1 for 3 - he didn't waste visas. I think he will err on the side of caution - wont waste visas and won't exceed quotas - even if they don't get FIFO.

[Niksammy]

http://www.immigration-information.c...589#post120589

Gurus,

Saw Ron Gotcher's response (above) to a question earlier today. Is there some information which just Ron Gotcher has access to or is this something other people are aware of? He mentioned something on similar lines after looking at May demand data. Did you guys see some red flags in last month's DD

[geeaarpee]

http://www.immigration-information.c...589#post120589

Gurus,

Saw Ron Gotcher's response (above) to a question earlier today. Is there some information which just Ron Gotcher has access to or is this something other people are aware of? He mentioned something on similar lines after looking at May demand data. Did you guys see some red flags in last month's DD

Thats a heart-breaking news Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

[MATT2012]

Thats a heart-breaking news Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

Oh!! that is indeed heart-breaking, We will have some information coming out in demand data and USICS inventory.
Thank you for posting.

[Niksammy]

Thats a heart-breaking news Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

I think this is old news from meeting CO had with lawyers way back around 24 th Oct 2012. Even I was shocked after reading that piece of info. Used google and came across the article below.

See the article at : http://www.mygcvisa.com/uscis-articl...r-FY-2013.aspx

I follow Ron's forum. First Ron kept on telling folks on his forum (till Jan 2013) that dates will move well into 2009 by April 2013 and now this article- I guess he is pretty confused himself

[MATT2012]

I think this is old news from meeting CO had with lawyers way back around 24 th Oct 2012. Even I was shocked after reading that piece of info. Used google and came across the article below.

See the article at : http://www.mygcvisa.com/uscis-articl...r-FY-2013.aspx

I follow Ron's forum. First Ron kept on telling folks on his forum (till Jan 2013) that dates will move well into 2009 by April 2013 and now this article- I guess he is pretty confused himself

Nikksammy, the time stamp said today morning. You infact gave me close to a shocker..I will still wait for the demand data to be out..

[Niksammy]

I am assuming these 20000 PDs are people who applied after becoming current during 2012 before dates retrogressed.

Gurus like Q/Matt/Spec could confirm if my assumption is correct.

[MATT2012]

I am assuming these 20000 PDs are people who applied after becoming current during 2012 before dates retrogressed.

Gurus like Q/Matt/Spec could confirm if my assumption is correct.

The forum did say today, but the top part had a 2012 bulletin published. anyways. if the information is old, it is already in demand. The cumulative demand for EB2I in August,2012 was 22K and now it is 42K.

[Niksammy]

Nikksammy, the time stamp said today morning. You infact gave me close to a shocker..I will still wait for the demand data to be out..

Yes, the time stamp is for today. As I mentioned in earlier in my original post, Ron gave a similar answer on 11 Apr 2013 - one day after last month's VB.

Sorry for shocking you, but I had a similar reaction and decided to get opinion of Gurus on this forum.

[MATT2012]

Yes, the time stamp is for today. As I mentioned in earlier in my original post, Ron gave a similar answer on 11 Apr 2013 - one day after last month's VB.

Sorry for shocking you, but I had a similar reaction and decided to get opinion of Gurus on this forum.

Did Ron mention a new 20K number, when he gave you the reply last month?