EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Is Bachelors Degree+ 5 Years experience also considered as advance degree for PERM? The document did not mention that way, but is 'nt that the Labor Defenition?

MATT

Matt,

Yes, which is why i said

Given a further 38% required at least a Bachelors Degree, the number applying under EB2 must be well over 60% and nearer 70%.

The last time I looked at the PWD, about 78% of requests appeared to be for EB2 jobs based on the minimum requirements (AD & Bachelors +5).

PERM wouldn't be that high since the the PWD undoubtedly contains multiple requests for the same position.

About 65% of the Bachelors PWD cases also required at least 5 years experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if half the PERM Bachelors cases were also EB2. 53% + 19% = 72%

[Spectator]

Spec, check the below numbers I derived from the data for EB2 ROW. The 2nd Qtr had dropped to 1667. I have used 100% conversion factor for I485, and to accomodate dependants I doubled it. I have taken five quarters of data to accomodate the extra quarter for this fiscal.

2012 3rd Qtr---------- 3622
2012 4th Qtr.--------- 4218
2013 1st Qtr. -------- 2286
2013 2nd Qtr.-------- 1667
2013 3rd Projected ----2948
Total-------------------14741
NIW--------------- 2948
Total-------- 17690
I485 Conversion----35379

I can't reproduce your numbers. I'm not sure if you are referring to ROW or WW (ROW-M-P). Either way, the PERM figures look too low. Possibly I am misunderstanding what you are calculating and from what data source.

When I did the calculation for ROW only using the 2 PERM Factsheets published this FY and the one published at the end of FY2012 and

a) Used known historical data to account for Mexico since that isn't part of the PERM Factsheet.

b) Used 65% as EB2 cases of total PERM and 2 I-485 per PERM.

c) Used the current rate of 19% for NIW.

b) Used the current rate of 8% Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability.

I get a figure of 33.5k for ROW if I use your assumption of 2.9k for Q3 2013.

The calculated ROW PERM figures from the PERM Factsheet were a very good match to the actual numbers from the disclosure data, so I have a high confidence that I have calculated correctly.

I actually think it is more likely to take 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval, so the Q3 number is unnecessary and I therefore did a second calculation and took the 5 quarters back to Q2 2012. Only those people who PP might creep in from a Q3 2013 PERM Certification.

That gave a figure of 33.0k, so it is basically the same either way. That is against the revised ROW allocation of 32.5k.

Both Mexico and Philippines behave very differently, so the same assumptions wouldn't hold for them. That's why I specifically calculated ROW only.

Perhaps you want to walk me through how you calculated Q1 and Q2 2013 and we can see where the difference is?

[MATT2012]

Given that Indian & Chinese may have an higher percentage of Advanced Degree and their combined weightage is high( more in numbers), Will EB2-WW have roughly 55-60% ?? My thought was EB2-WW will be around 55%. I remember US Non immigration blog site had an aproximation of 50%, but that was a two years ago.

Matt,

Yes, which is why i said



The last time I looked at the PWD, about 78% of requests appeared to be for EB2 jobs based on the minimum requirements (AD & Bachelors +5).

PERM wouldn't be that high since the the PWD undoubtedly contains multiple requests for the same position.

About 65% of the Bachelors PWD cases also required at least 5 years experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if half the PERM Bachelors cases were also EB2. 53% + 19% = 72%

[MATT2012]

Also I did nt include the 8% Indian nationality getting charged to ROW, Thanks for throwing light into it. Though one of my colleagues recently did it, ooops My bad.

[Spectator]

Given that Indian & Chinese may have an higher percentage of Advanced Degree and their combined weightage is high( more in numbers), Will EB2-WW have roughly 55-60% ?? My thought was EB2-WW will be around 55%. I remember US Non immigration blog site had an aproximation of 50%, but that was a two years ago.

Matt,

That was a blog I used to enjoy, although I never agreed with that figure. It's a shame it just died suddenly.

It might have been 50% a long time ago, but not any longer, exactly as it has increased for India.

The difference in Cut off dates for ROW between EB2 and EB3 is similar to that for India (~6 years).

Nobody wants to file in EB3 if they have to. It is equally unattractive whatever Country a person comes from.

I'm not sure why you think a ROW applicant is less likely to have an Advanced Degree. The high number of NIW and approvals in EB1 and EB2 would suggest otherwise.

ROW represent the second highest % of PERM applications, with China a very distant third. I once did the calculation which showed the ROW % had to be nearly as high as India's to maintain the overall %, since Mexico and Philippines have far higher numbers in EB3. China's % isn't as high as you would think, because they also have a large number of EB3-EW applicants. Check out their Cut Off Date.

ROW could not have such high EB2 approvals if a high % of the PERM based I-140 were not filed under EB2. The figures simply wouldn't work otherwise.

[vizcard]

I actually think it is more likely to take 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval, so the Q3 number is unnecessary and I therefore did a second calculation and took the 5 quarters back to Q2 2012. Only those people who PP might creep in from a Q3 2013 PERM Certification.

That gave a figure of 33.0k, so it is basically the same either way. That is against the revised ROW allocation of 32.5k.

Both Mexico and Philippines behave very differently, so the same assumptions wouldn't hold for them. That's why I specifically calculated ROW only.

Perhaps you want to walk me through how you calculated Q1 and Q2 2013 and we can see where the difference is?

Spec - U earlier had a number of around 40K for EB2ROW. So is the 33K number a revised number down? Also, isnt the revised allocation for ROW almost 39K (after incl the 18K visas). I'm a lil confused about the 32.5K number above.

[MATT2012]

Spec,
I was just speaking from the labor perspective not from ROW advanced degree perspective. I did a filter for PERM raw file with a Salary of 70K or more for WW except I & C, if I am not wrong it came between 55-60 %. it was difficult to get a straight figure as there were hourly, monthly etc, I did nt bother to convert. I just wanted to know the trend. As salary also cannot determine the category, I left it there.

I have great respect ROW as the education circumstances are totally different than what I had .

I used to enjoy the website too, never knew why they shut down. There was another one named immigration watch. they used provide a lot statistics. They also died.

Coming back to the numbers on PERM, Do you think that the EB2WW max around 38K, I mean including M and P.?

Thanks Spec for all your expert thoughts, there are very few folks in the internet forum who would provide detailed statistical back up for their respective predictions.
MATT

Matt,

That was a blog I used to enjoy, although I never agreed with that figure. It's a shame it just died suddenly.

It might have been 50% a long time ago, but not any longer, exactly as it has increased for India.

The difference in Cut off dates for ROW between EB2 and EB3 is similar to that for India (~6 years).

Nobody wants to file in EB3 if they have to. It is equally unattractive whatever Country a person comes from.

I'm not sure why you think a ROW applicant is less likely to have an Advanced Degree. The high number of NIW and approvals in EB1 and EB2 would suggest otherwise.

ROW represent the second highest % of PERM applications, with China a very distant third. I once did the calculation which showed the ROW % had to be nearly as high as India's to maintain the overall %, since Mexico and Philippines have far higher numbers in EB3. China's % isn't as high as you would think, because they also have a large number of EB3-EW applicants. Check out their Cut Off Date.

ROW could not have such high EB2 approvals if a high % of the PERM based I-140 were not filed under EB2. The figures simply wouldn't work otherwise.

[Spectator]

Spec - U earlier had a number of around 40K for EB2ROW. So is the 33K number a revised number down? Also, isnt the revised allocation for ROW almost 39K (after incl the 18K visas). I'm a lil confused about the 32.5K number above.

viz,

The 40k figure was referencing EB2-WW rather than EB2-ROW alone.

The 33k was just a reply to Matt's calculation - I can think of other factors as well.

Currently, I am happy to stick to EB2-WW using about the revised allocation they have.

[vizcard]

viz,

The 40k figure was referencing EB2-WW rather than EB2-ROW alone.

The 33k was just a reply to Matt's calculation - I can think of other factors as well.

Currently, I am happy to stick to EB2-WW using about the revised allocation they have.

That makes sense. Thanks!

I just hope CIR goes thru with some benefit to the current EB backlog.

[gc_soon]

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

Another one,
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[MeraGC1]

AC-21 and H1B

Hi Gurus,

I have few questions about AC-21 and H1 visa. I have an offer and planning to invoke AC-21. My priority date is July 2008, EB2I. I am in my 8th year of H1. The new company has agreed to transfer H1 and will also send AC-21 docs to USCIS. If for some reason, my 485 gets rejected, can I still stay on H1 as my H1 will be valid till 2016 (current H1 expires in 2014, I am assuming when the new company files for H1 transfer I will get 3 years of H1 extension based on I-140 approval and AOS pending)? I know you can file MTR, if 485 gets rejected, but just want to know my options before invoking AC-21. I am moving from a Manager role to Director role. As per My labor, my current job requirement is Masters plus 3 years of experience. The new job requirement is Bachelor's with 8+ years of experience.

Thanks in advance.

[vizcard]

AC-21 and H1B

Hi Gurus,

I have few questions about AC-21 and H1 visa. I have an offer and planning to invoke AC-21. My priority date is July 2008, EB2I. I am in my 8th year of H1. The new company has agreed to transfer H1 and will also send AC-21 docs to USCIS. If for some reason, my 485 gets rejected, can I still stay on H1 as my H1 will be valid till 2016 (current H1 expires in 2014, I am assuming when the new company files for H1 transfer I will get 3 years of H1 extension based on I-140 approval and AOS pending)?
yes you can. Not sure about getting the 3 yr extension as there is a difference between a transfer vs an extension but I'm not 100% sure on that.
I know you can file MTR, if 485 gets rejected, but just want to know my options before invoking AC-21. I am moving from a Manager role to Director role. As per My labor, my current job requirement is Masters plus 3 years of experience. The new job requirement is Bachelor's with 8+ years of experience.
I don't think the experience is the issue. Its the type of job. If its similar job responsibilities, its fine. Going from manager to director within research is ok but going from manager in research to director in sales is not (just an example btw).
Thanks in advance.

see above inline responses

[pseudonym]

Some additional info that I thought I should share with the folks on this forum. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound very positive based on the attorney's short response (without much detail). This was in response to a question that I had posted on the attorney's website regarding an article they had about an upcoming meeting with CO. See link in the email conversation below. I will try to ask for more details.

--------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-in...eb-2-and-india

Thanks.

[Vkkpnm]

Yes you can get 3 years extension based on approved I140 on h1 transfer. I got 3 yrs extension in a similar scenario.

[MeraGC1]

Thank you, Vizcard and Vkkpnm.

So if 485 gets rejected, I can start my green card process by retaining the old priority date?

Thanks!

[gc_soon]

Thank you, Vizcard and Vkkpnm.

So if 485 gets rejected, I can start my green card process by retaining the old priority date?

Thanks!

There should be no reason for 485 to get rejected unless fraud(by you or your employer) is involved.
Having said that, to answer your question, in case I485 gets denied, yes PD can be retained for the next application. Better to consult a lawyer if you need more peace of mind. Good luck.

[Spectator]

Some additional info that I thought I should share with the folks on this forum. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound very positive based on the attorney's short response (without much detail). This was in response to a question that I had posted on the attorney's website regarding an article they had about an upcoming meeting with CO. See link in the email conversation below. I will try to ask for more details.

--------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-in...eb-2-and-india

Thanks.

pseudonym,

Welcome to the forum.

Thank you for sharing. Kudos for your pro-activity in following up the article and asking the question.

It's a shame the response was so brief. Let us know if they do post a further article about the meeting.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Pseudonym for sharing. I am yet to digest the NEWS, my brain cells got superactive reading it..

Spec,

I am a bit confused, At this point I dont have any reasons to think that the attorney is not correct, are we heading to August/September play? Or is it the visa office's generic answer to avoid the question!!
it is still possible, to make the big movement late, but I did not understand the advantage for the Visa office in doing so.What possible factor is in CO's mind to hold up eB2I until that late??
Is this USICS vs Visa Office, or is this political preperation for immigration reform..Lots of questions popped up as soon as I read it..
He is speaking little movement around July/August. Before the demand shows up it is time for the next bulletin.I am not able to see any advantage.
Hopefully we will see mentions about it soon, it has been a week since this meeting happened, and it is not mentioned in any common websites

[pseudonym]

Thanks Spectator and Matt. I was able to get some additional information. Very discouraging and disappointing, if indeed accurate. See full email chain below:

-----------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 4:39 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Just a few weeks by end of FY.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.




From: [---@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:39 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: Re: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

Thanks for your reply. Was there any guidance or approximate date range provided around where India EB2 might advance to over the next few months or till the end of this fiscal year?

Appreciate your response.

---


On Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM, David Ware <dware@david-ware.com> wrote:
Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-in...eb-2-and-india

Thanks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Thanks Pseudonym for sharing. I am yet to digest the NEWS, my brain cells got superactive reading it..

Spec,

I am a bit confused, At this point I dont have any reasons to think that the attorney is not correct, are we heading to August/September play? Or is it the visa office's generic answer to avoid the question!!
it is still possible, to make the big movement late, but I did not understand the advantage for the Visa office in doing so.What possible factor is in CO's mind to hold up eB2I until that late??
Is this USICS vs Visa Office, or is this political preperation for immigration reform..Lots of questions popped up as soon as I read it..I
He is speaking little movement around July/August. Before the demand shows up it is time for the next bulletin.I am not able to see any advantage.
Hopefully we will see mentions about it soon, it has been a week since this meeting happened, and it is not mentioned in any common websites

This means that all our hopes of movement should be laid to rest. These are early indications that the demand even with FB is so high that SO is going to be very less. When CO says a bit that means it will not even cross 2004. I guess we have missed something in our FB projjections.

[sbhagwat2000]

This means that all our hopes of movement should be laid to rest. These are early indications that the demand even with FB is so high that SO is going to be very less. When CO says a bit that means it will not even cross 2004. I guess we have missed something in our FB projjections.

Hey guys - sorry to provide this information on monday morning. But I also emailed the person and got his reply as follows-- I asked him what did CO say abt FY 2013 and below is his reply -



He said India would move forward only a few weeks by the end of the FY. Sorry! But of course by then we should have immigration legislation which takes care of the problem.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.


The only thing I can think of is that EB2 WW is sucking all the Fall down from EB1

[Spectator]

Thanks Spectator and Matt. I was able to get some additional information. Very discouraging and disappointing, if indeed accurate. See full email chain below:

-----------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 4:39 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Just a few weeks by end of FY.


From: [---@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:39 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: Re: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

Thanks for your reply. Was there any guidance or approximate date range provided around where India EB2 might advance to over the next few months or till the end of this fiscal year?

Appreciate your response.

---

Hey guys - sorry to provide this information on monday morning. But I also emailed the person and got his reply as follows-- I asked him what did CO say abt FY 2013 and below is his reply -

He said India would move forward only a few weeks by the end of the FY. Sorry! But of course by then we should have immigration legislation which takes care of the problem.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.


The only thing I can think of is that EB2 WW is sucking all the Fall down from EB1

This is not good news to wake up to.

Thanks to both of you for obtaining further information. I don't doubt the sincerity of the reply.

I too am at a bit of a loss to understand why CO would be so pessimistic. I (as people know) can be one of the most pessimistic people around, but even my worst case scenario does not fit with what has been said.

I can only hope that CO is just keeping his cards very close to his chest and does not want to raise any expectations.

There is still a long time to go in this FY and anything can happen, it may be a negative sign, but it is not determinative.

[sbhagwat2000]

This is not good news to wake up to.

Thanks to both of you for obtaining further information. I don't doubt the sincerity of the reply.

I too am at a bit of a loss to understand why CO would be so pessimistic. I (as people know) can be one of the most pessimistic people around, but even my worst case scenario does not fit with what has been said.

I can only hope that CO is just keeping his cards very close to his chest and does not want to raise any expectations.

There is still a long time to go in this FY and anything can happen, it may be a negative sign, but it is not determinative.

I agree with you that it makes no sense with the data we have. But I guess CO may have other data with him that we are missing. Also think abt it - EB2 WW using 45000 is not in the realm of the impossible anymore

[sbhagwat2000]

I agree with you that it makes no sense with the data we have. But I guess CO may have other data with him that we are missing. Also think abt it - EB2 WW using 45000 is not in the realm of the impossible anymore

I cannot get this out of my head - did some quick calculations -

Lets say

EB1 - 41000 - this has happened in the past
EB2 WW - 45000 - in the realm of possiblility since EB2 WW has already exhausted 25000 visas

EB1 has - 5000 + 1135 from EB4 -extra = 6135 - > no extra visas from EB5

6135 - 6000 = 135.

I think this is what is happening and hence no movement in eb2i

[Still_Waiting]

Something seems off!!

For one, April 6, 2013 is a Saturday. As far as I know (I went back and checked as much as I could on Google) all of Charles' other meetings with AILA or other groups have been on weekdays (correct me if I'm wrong please). Typically when he meets with a group, all of them post on their website ASAP. This is the best way for most attorneys to generate traffic and thereby business, so it's very unlikely for them to sit on this for a week and not say anything, ESPECIALLY info like this. Since this April 6th meeting is not showing up on any other source, that would then mean that Charles met with someone from Ware|Gasparian on a Saturday and gave them some potentially HUGE news that he didn't give anyone else.

I'm not saying that it's not possible, it just seems VERY odd!!