EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[nishant2200]

Shouldnt be an issue. Id have your lawyer draft the letter to the USCIS (there is no AC21 form) and get an EVL from the new company and send those to the USCIS in the July timeframe. If you can send a paystub, thats good too.

I believe if new job is good for your career don't miss opportunity. Legally no problem if same or similar job with salary >= needed for GC position as in labor when filed.

[nishant2200]

Hey All Gurus -

My priority Date is 14/5/08 w/EAD/AP- what do you think is the possibility of getting greended in FY2013? Also if assuming PD hits Apr'08 in Sept 13 VB - what do you think is the possibility after the retrogression to come back to Mid 2008 in Q4 FY 2014?

thanks

I feel there will always be pattern of big retrogression in formative quarters of a FY and depending on SO, movement in last quarter. This might change when CO reaches inventory running out.

And probability of 5/2008 is on the low end like 0.1. A chance is a chance though.

[longwait100]

With the prediction for the spillover numbers dwindling down everyday, how much likely is it for a PD of Aug 2007 (485 filed already) for EB2I to have his GC in FY2013?

[vizcard]

With the prediction for the spillover numbers dwindling down everyday, how much likely is it for a PD of Aug 2007 (485 filed already) for EB2I to have his GC in FY2013?

100%. I can't see a scenario where you won't get a GC based on numbers.

[dec2007]

100%. I can't see a scenario where you won't get a GC based on numbers.

Vizcard, can we say the same for PD of Dec 31, 2007. I'm in a crossroads at work., need to take few important decisions.
thankyou,

[qesehmk]

Yes. I think so.

Vizcard, can we say the same for PD of Dec 31, 2007. I'm in a crossroads at work., need to take few important decisions.
thankyou,

[vizcard]

Yes. I think so.

dec2007 - what he said ^

are you speaking for me now Q ? just kidding

[qesehmk]

LoL! I didn't realize that. Sorry. But to answer his question .... yes I do think 2007 Dec should easily cruise through.

dec2007 - what he said ^

are you speaking for me now Q ? just kidding

[gardas]

How about PD of 03/25/2008 getting GC this year?

[Summer_13]

Based on the predictions, it looks like Aug 2008 PD might become current this year.
What about October 2008 Gurus? You think max by next year?
I got my EAD last year in March 2012. But with Baby#1 on the way, i wanted to take up something part time and quit full time. I understand EAD would not allow that since i am the primary applicant. I am eagerly waiting for the GC that would allow me part time work schedule.
My husband and i both have separate GC applications and PD's.

[helooo]

Hello gurus,
Any Prediction for EB2 I May Visa Bulletin?

[sbhagwat2000]

Hello gurus,
Any Prediction for EB2 I May Visa Bulletin?

It will stay same or retrogress as co has said

[iamdeb]

Hi Gurus,

What kind of impact will CIR have on the visa movement. Is there going to any relief for EB IC candidates or will it all be about Family Visas and Illegal immigrants?

Thanks!
Deb

[Spectator]

Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

[vizcard]

Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

Booooooo ... JK


It is a waiting game. I for one am not going to stress about this until July and I hope others do the same too.

[MATT2012]

Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.

On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!

Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

[seattlet]

Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.

[Spectator]

Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.

On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!

Matt,

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.

Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!

I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.

If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.

I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.

[Spectator]

Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.

seattlet,

There is some breakdown by PD in this post for EB2-ROW. The Trackitt numbers for EB2-M and EB2-P are a bit low for me to feel confident they are entirely reliable.

If that is not what you are asking, then I think you need to define exactly what you mean by "2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks".

The major surge of receipts (according to Trackitt) was seen in June 2012 (just before retrogression) and in November 2012 (when EB2-WW became Current again). 17% and 26% of those remain pending on Trackitt. Given that there is a % on Trackitt that never update their case, I would say the majority of those cases have probably now been dealt with.

[gcpursuit]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.

With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?

Thanks!

[Spectator]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.

With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?

Thanks!

gcpursuit,

I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.

It is too far in the future.

My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.

To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.

I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.

I think passage of CIR is your best hope.

[gcpursuit]

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

[geterdone]

gcpursuit,

I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.

It is too far in the future.

My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.

To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.

I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.

I think passage of CIR is your best hope.

Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

You can find the historical figures here.

The lowest figure in the time period (FY2009) gave 7.5k extra visas to EB2-IC. You need to look at the figures and understand the historical factors that influenced them. As an example, in FY2009 5.7k of those extra visas came from EB5, which wouldn't be repeated today. Other factors may have changed for the positive. For example, EB4 approvals have reduced.

In most years, another factor (or factors) have ensured that EB2-IC received more spillover than that seen in FY2009.

[druvraj]

Spec,

Are you now expecting less that 14K for EB2I?