EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

This calendar - CLICK HERE - on this site lists immigration events approximately. I and other moderators will keep adding events as time permits.

Do we know when is th next demand data will be published or any other action/event/stats by USCIS that will further put some light on our prediction?

[Vkkpnm]

Wow. Great. Thanks

[SmileBaba]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year

Hi! My PD is also Dec 2007. You mentioned you atleast need an EAD this year. So I am guessing you didn't file I485 last year?

But in any case don't think too much about GC dude. It will come on it's own time. Hang in there.

[gkjppp]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi! My PD is also Dec 2007. You mentioned you atleast need an EAD this year. So I am guessing you didn't file I485 last year?

But in any case don't think too much about GC dude. It will come on it's own time. Hang in there.

Yes I missed to file last year. Please don't ask how . Yeah hanging here since 2006, lets have another year.

[Vkkpnm]

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.

Amen and thanks. You r right, this site is so addictive. Thanks to all who helped in getting this site setup.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All

Why isn't there any activity on this Forum in the last 3-4 days?

Amen and thanks. You r right, this site is so addictive. Thanks to all who helped in getting this site setup.

[bvsamrat]

It all depends when the Spill over gets released. If released only in the last few months, the possibiity of GC is slim as the process of I-485 application/FP etc. will take certain time during which the dates may retrogress again.

EAD for sure. But 50%-50% GC for new I-485's in this year if the dates gets delayed beyond July - IMHO

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All

I have a question for the GURUS here.

Lets assume we get 18K visas to EB2I. And lets say 3k is used by porting between Sept'02-Sept'04, which leaves with 15K. Now looking at Demand Data we have 7.3K until Dec07, and around 8K till End of June 08. So would the Dates be moved till June 2008?

Or Consider/assume that there might be around 4K Porting between (Sept 04-Jun 08) - And move the dates to End of Mar 08 (to accomodate for that 4K porting and deduct that 4K from June 08 to MAr 08).

please share your thoughts on this process of moving dates.

thanks

It all depends when the Spill over gets released. If released only in the last few months, the possibiity of GC is slim as the process of I-485 application/FP etc. will take certain time during which the dates may retrogress again.

EAD for sure. But 50%-50% GC for new I-485's in this year if the dates gets delayed beyond July - IMHO

[Spectator]

Hey All

I have a question for the GURUS here.

Lets assume we get 18K visas to EB2I. And lets say 3k is used by porting between Sept'02-Sept'04, which leaves with 15K. Now looking at Demand Data we have 7.3K until Dec07, and around 8K till End of June 08. So would the Dates be moved till June 2008?

Or Consider/assume that there might be around 4K Porting between (Sept 04-Jun 08) - And move the dates to End of Mar 08 (to accomodate for that 4K porting and deduct that 4K from June 08 to MAr 08).

please share your thoughts on this process of moving dates.

thanks

SeekingGC2013,

Using your figures, you are correct that dates would move to the end of March 2008.

In reality, 100% of cases do not get approved, even though they are Current and potentially other cases get added to the Demand that we know nothing about.

Both affect where the Cut Off Date will move to.

[SeekingGC2013]

Spec,
But would we know that 4K in below example in the Demand Data published by June Visa Bulletin - and get an idea when the dates would be moved into?

SeekingGC2013,

Using your figures, you are correct that dates would move to the end of March 2008.

In reality, 100% of cases do not get approved, even though they are Current and potentially other cases get added to the Demand that we know nothing about.

Both affect where the Cut Off Date will move to.

[Spectator]

Spec,
But would we know that 4K in below example in the Demand Data published by June Visa Bulletin - and get an idea when the dates would be moved into?

No.

The cases can't be shown in the DD because they are waiting for their PD to become Current for the conversion to an EB2 case to take place.

If they are approved while their PD is Current, they will not show in the Demand Data because a visa is immediately available.

All you would ever see are those that "miss the boat" after dates retrogress again and become pre-adjudicated.

After about May 2007, most porters will not have an I-485 pending under EB3 and will have to file one from scratch. They will likely "miss the boat" due to I-485 processing times.

Before that, those with an already pending I-485 under EB3 are as pre-adjudicated as those with one pending under EB2 IMO. The process of actual conversion to an EB2 basis and ordering a visa is a matter of minutes, assuming all else is good. The have a slightly higher chance of being issued an RFE, if one hasn't been sent fairly recently, but even the non-porting cases may have last been issued one a year ago by the time the dates become Current again.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi Spectator, I need your expert opinion on a post by Matt on Trackitt, eatimating porting count. Please see below
"As promised yesterday, I am providing the numbers behind my estimate of additional 5000 portings till year end.

There is roughly 1500 portings in the first Quarter as per USICS inventory comparison.This is porting from EB3I to EB2I before July/Aug 2007. And roughly all portings until January are already in the demand data of March 2013. There are two more full quarters of portings which can come into this years demand. and possibly one partial quarter

For Quarter two - 2000 + For Quarter three 2000 and partial quarter 1000. So it totals 5000. I have already added 250 additional in each quarter to accomodate July 2007 to June 2008.

I was intially trying to breakup labor data. To put it together in a small paragraph is too difficult.

The demand data of this month would give more indicators.."

Do you agree on this? Again I am not questioning anyone's judgement and have full respect for that. Just want to share with experts to get realistic figure.

[erikbond101]

As it was mentioned by Spectator that porting is 100 per month per FY. Then total porting between July 2007 and June 2008 will be 1200 in FY 2013. And some more will need to be added (600) for porting done in FY12 (between April 12-Sep12). Between Sep 2004 and July 2007 porting number will be around 3500-3700.
And in my humble opinion some of them (~30%) will already be part of demand data published in Feb 13. That is how demand data has increased from 5800 (Nov 13) to 7300 (Feb13).

[Spectator]

As it was mentioned by Spectator that porting is 100 per month per FY. Then total porting between July 2007 and June 2008 will be 1200 in FY 2013. And some more will need to be added (600) for porting done in FY12 (between April 12-Sep12). Between Sep 2004 and July 2007 porting number will be around 3500-3700.
And in my humble opinion some of them (~30%) will already be part of demand data published in Feb 13. That is how demand data has increased from 5800 (Nov 13) to 7300 (Feb13).

No.

I used 100 as an example in this post.

I did not say what I thought it was (deliberately). I also said it would be my last comment on the subject.

[gc_soon]

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.

[mailmvr]

Any comment based on murthy's article
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/ail...n-cutoff-dates

[Spectator]

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.

gc_soon,

EB4 falls up to EB1.
EB5 falls up to EB1.

EB4 does NOT fall down to EB5.

Here is the relevant INA 203 paragraph for EB5 - note it does not mention EB4.

(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

Here, in contrast, is the section for EB1:

(1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

[openaccount]

April DD reeased:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

2004,2005,2006 numbers increased
2007,2008 numbers decreased compared to March DD.

[pdmay2008]

April DD reeased:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

2004,2005,2006 numbers increased
2007,2008,2009 numbers decreased compared to March DD.

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?

[Spectator]

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?

pdmay2008,

I agree it doesn't look right.

I only see reductions for 2007 (300) and 2008 (675).

Only next month's DD will say whether it is a mistake or not.

[ajaydons]

pdmay2008,

I agree it doesn't look right.

I only see reductions for 2007 (300) and 2008 (675).

Only next month's DD will say whether it is a mistake or not.

Could it be porting from EB2 to EB1??

[mailmvr]

Year MARCH-DD APRIL-DD
2005 300 375
2006 775 1025
2007 1650 7400
2009 27475 26375

[Spectator]

The EB3-WW figures also have an oddity.

The 345 for Prior to 01 January 2004 is at odds with all the other figures.

[YTeleven]

It is possible if EB2-I people are porting to EB1-I. You can see similar reduction in EB3-I DD, so far in this financial year the reduction of EB3-I DD is 3625 but the allowed quota for them is ~1400 till today.

Here is my guess for PD movements for APR'13 VB: EB3-I: 2 weeks forward movement, EB2-I: There will be huge backward movement(6 months to 1 year) unless CO considering any extra spillover than monthly allocated quota for EB2-I.

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?