EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[geeaarpee]

If we will take porting into consideration that will add another 6K till Mar08. (at max but to be optimistic it will be 3K )

erikbond101 - Porters should increase exponentially (atleast not progressively) as we move the dates beyond 2007. Even between the 2005-2007/08, I believe, USCIS sees a number of porting cases and thats why they set the cut-off dates at Sep2004. I even believe porters should increase exponentially after April 2005, becos, till then the RIR and TR (non-RIR) processes were a pain to get a labor approved and not many people are left in the GC queue anymore (either they got GCs, ported already or left the country ) - remember the Perm labor changed the picture altogether, even with Perm the initial few months (Apr-Jun'05) the employers and attorneys were reluctant to file and once they see labor approvals in 60 days, they started filing in mass and the EB3 demand data reflects that. This whole thing caused USCIS to put an end on the substitution labor stuff but I strongly believe that back-fired them with this huge backlog - but the other side they are milking money - earlier there used to be one labor - it either gets used or sustituted, now it gets used or wasted. Wastage is good for USCIS, because for the same guy another labor will be filed by another employer.

So my point is, 3k is very low - should be atleast double that number in reality, especially if you are looking at date movements beyond late 2007.

[Spectator]

Spec,

As usual, great post.. I agree with your estimation of 7k/year towards porting.

However, if dates do not move until Q4, do you think 7k applications would be processed in-time to award the visas before the dates move back again?

Do you think there would be gradual movement or one big time movement ?

ChampU,

A slight correction. It is SeekingGC2013's estimate. I deliberately did not say what I think the number is - I am still thinking about it. But considering FY2013 will have 12 + 4 months worth of porting, it is going to be higher than normal.

Hey Spec

In the below Calclation - what about Spiilover from EB4 & EB5 - your calculation on Page1 shows another 4.5K SO from EB4&EB5 - is that added looks like total visas would be 20K as you predicted earlier.

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k

SeekingGC2013,

Well it is your calculation. The 5k in the above is NET Fall down From EB1. Since you didn't show EB4 and EB5 separately I have to assume you included it. Gross Fall Down would be that 5k plus 1.3 plus 1.3 (1.3k extra FB visas EB4 & EB5 received) plus 5.1k (extra FB visas that EB1 received) to total 12.7k gross spillover. In your calculation above those 7.7 extra visas are already included in 8.1k FB Visa figure. The difference to 8.1k is the 0.4k that EB2-I receive automatically.

The figures on the first page are gross spillover (i.e includes the extra FB numbers to each Category).

So EB4 represents 8k usage - approx 2k net spillover plus 1.3k from FB.

Similarly, EB5 represents full usage of the original allocation, leaving only the extra 1.3k extra from FB.

EB1 represents 35k usage, which is 5k net spillover plus 5.1 extra from FB. The extra is a rounding and calculation error.

etc

I hope that explains it.

As I note at the bottom of the last update, things have moved on since it was originally written.

Edit:- PS Thanks Kanmani. Beat me to it with much more succinct post.

[Kanmani]

SeekingGC2013,

I hope that Spec's 1st page prediction comes true , With ongoing discussions like this he is becoming stingier by cutting numbers post by post

Spec, people are reading your posts everywhere all around and passing your findings,calculations to DOS . Spec, Pls give us more !

[Kanmani]

I think I got confused again.

Spec, 21K sofad or 15.9K ?

[Spectator]

I think I got confused again. Spec, are you standing by your 21K sofad and rewriting SeekinGC2013's 15.9 your way? Buzz......

Kanmani,

Sorry about that.

The original first page post is outdated and too optimistic. I didn't realise some of the finer points that have emerged since it was originally written. I've only really left it there as history.

Roughly speaking I am somewhere at about 17k total visas for EB2-I currently. I am allowing 2k more spillover than SeekinGC2013 but also allowing for EB2-C to receive an additional 1k visas.

With EB2-C receiving about 4k, that would be 21k total SOFAD.

The real problem is that I don't have a good grasp of how many visas EB1 are likely to use (so I am effectively guessing) or the number of porting cases that will actually be approved before the end of FY2013. Plus, I don't have a good estimate of how many case might become Current but not actually be approved before the FY ends. I tend to call those "left behind". All these factors will impact how far the dates can move.

There are too many variables and not enough information to be other than fairly general. Really, that's why I can't give a very good prediction. As you suggest, I can be rather good at being pessimistic and 18k has already reduced to 8k for EB2-I as far as the FB visas are concerned!!

[gkjppp]

Spec told clearly
19.8

I think I got confused again.

Spec, 21K sofad or 15.9K ?

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I'll take that 17k from you.

We optimistic group would like to add those 4.4k from EB2 WW and still look for something more too. ( Just like we use to pray for Indian cricket team getting a spot in the World Cup QF , merely not by winning, in a way expecting the other strong teams to lose within the pool. Jaihind!)

Lets wait and see.

[SmileBaba]

Murthy posted AILA news today (dated March,01, 2013):
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/ail...-cutoff-dates/

Spec:Buddy, you are now cutting hope down post by post. Can we expect 2007 EB2I to be cleared by end of Sept. 2013?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I'll take that 17k from you.

We optimistic group would like to add those 4.4k from EB2 WW and still look for something more too. ( Just like we use to pray for Indian cricket team getting a spot in the World Cup QF , merely not by winning, in a way expecting the other strong teams to lose within the pool. Jaihind!)

Lets wait and see.

Kanmani,

LOL.

Here's the things that I'm thinking about now (if anyone is remotely interested).

EB1

Clearly the 25.2k approvals in FY2011 were low due to Kazarian.

Logically, if cases were delayed because of that, EB1 approvals in FY2012 should have been high.

So what does a normal post-Kazarian year look like? Again, logically it might be somewhere in between.

Pre Kazarian, EB1 used 41k in both FY2009 and FY2010.

A straight average of FY2011 and FY2012 would give 32.3k, which would be a drop of 21% from pre-Kazarian days. That is a lot when you consider that EB1A and EB1B only represent 40-50% of total EB1 approvals. Is it realistic?

Then, there is the EB1C issue. EB1C approvals appear to be increasing (difficult to tell exactly how much) and are immune from Kazarian. EB1-I approvals increased 108% in FY2012 over FY2011. Even compared to FY2010 they were 41% higher. What is the reason?

EB4

Prior to FY2011, EB4 usually used their entire allocation. In FY2011, concurrent filing for Religious Workers was withdrawn part way through the year, hence it was not surprising to see the approvals drop that FY.

I was surprised that approvals were still low in FY2012. Instead, the backlog of I-360 cases has continued to rise.

My worry is that if USCIS decide to reduce that backlog, we are going to see a return to full use of EB4 visas, remembering that Religious Workers now need an approved I-360 to submit an I-485.

EB5

From the trend over the past few years and the I-526 receipt numbers, we should expect EB5 to reach around 10k in FY2013.

The backlog of I-526 cases continues to increase. There is no concurrent filing for EB5, but 87% are Consular Processed anyway.

EB5 has had some problems recently with the "Tenant Occupancy" methodology for determining job creation numbers. This has probably had a depressing influence on numbers so far this year.


For every Category that might produce Fall Down to EB2, there are questions, questions and more questions. Nothing is obvious.

CO has better visibility on these issues for sure, but I think even for him, it is going to be very difficult to release any potential Fall Down until July 2013 at the earliest.

[qesehmk]

This is very useful despite greenspan-speak from CO (unlike ben bernanke, alan greenspan used to deliver info and let markets struggle to decipher it).

So here is the bottomline that I understood and my opinion thereof in parentheses:

1. EB1 - excess numbers from other countries will ensure EB1 IC won't be retrogressed. (IMHO EB1 by itself will barely provide 1K to EB2. So expect EB1 to pass through the entire spillover it receives from EB4/5).
2. EB5 - 75% more demand than previous year. How still no retro for EB5C. (Last year demand was 7.8K. 75% more is 13K. With FB spillover the limit will be 11K. So expect no sofad. It's a wonder that EB5C is not retrogressed).
3. EB4 - (CO skipped this one. But expect 3K sofad max here consistent with prior year).
4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.(Full year that would be 13K. However, not all is pre 2004. Nor all is not EB2IC. But the biggest hint CO provides is that pre 2004 will possibly reach limit i.e. 2.8K. My rough guess is - if EB3I is giving 2.8K over 19 months (Nov 2002 - Sep 2004) then we should expect equal numbers between Sep 2004 - Sep 2008. Rounding out - 6K is a reasonable number to expect until Mid 2008 for EB2IC.

So all in all - all of this is quite in line with the thought that EB2IC will - other than FB spillover - will receive a very small SOFAD which together with regular EB2I quota we should expect to cover most of the EB2I porting alone. So we should apply FB spillover (12K in my judgement) to oct 485 inventory which then should bring EB2I date to Apr 2008 only. Sorry to be this pessimistic... but that's the only reasonable conclusion we can get from this. I guess if there is ANY upside to this prediction - the only place it can come from is EB5.

Murthy posted AILA news today (dated March,01, 2013):
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/ail...-cutoff-dates/

Spec:Buddy, you are now cutting hope down post by post. Can we expect 2007 EB2I to be cleared by end of Sept. 2013?

[qesehmk]

Spec - you can reduce your uncertainty about EB1 like this:

A = 2012 actual EB1 usage
E = 2013 Estimated EB1 usage
F2011 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2011
F2012 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2012

E = A + F2012 - F2011

You can make this a bit more accurate by introducing denial rate D (5% may be?)

E = (A / (1-D) + F2012-F2011) * (1-D)

[Kanmani]

4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

[Spectator]

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

Kanmani,

True.

It isn't a very useful number. It contains 2011 PD and normal non-porting cases with a PD of 2011 would be expected.

[Spectator]

Spec - you can reduce your uncertainty about EB1 like this:

A = 2012 actual EB1 usage
E = 2013 Estimated EB1 usage
F2011 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2011
F2012 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2012

E = A + F2012 - F2011

You can make this a bit more accurate by introducing denial rate D (5% may be?)

E = (A / (1-D) + F2012-F2011) * (1-D)

Q,

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that works because the USCIS Inventory only contains a small subset (I-485 with I-140 already approved) of the total numbers.

That works fine for a Category or Country that is generally quite retrogressed, because in time all the I-140 are approved.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory totally understates the true numbers.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani - I misread it as all areas except worldwide ie. ICMP.
That correction actually solves a big hunch I always had in EB2ROW demand. EB2ROW demand always showed much more than what the labor data would indicate. So 13K is the ROW porting in EB2. That's interesting.
On another note - I would still be comfortable at 6K porting for EB2I prior to mid 2008.

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

Q,

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that works because the USCIS Inventory only contains a small subset (I-485 with I-140 already approved) of the total numbers.

That works fine for a Category or Country that is generally quite retrogressed, because in time all the I-140 are approved.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory totally understates the true numbers.

Spec - for EB1 inventory is actually a snapshot - so a much smaller subset. However if you think about it the formula gives pretty accurate demand for EB1 except the CP inventory. In fact one can modify F2012 and F2011 to include NVC numbers and the formula becomes perfect. I wouldn't worry about pending 140 with the assumption that both years exhibited similar 140 behavior (approval and denial rate and flowthrough rate).

[gc_soon]

Thanks Kanmani - I misread it as all areas except worldwide ie. ICMP.
That correction actually solves a big hunch I always had in EB2ROW demand. EB2ROW demand always showed much more than what the labor data would indicate. So 13K is the ROW porting in EB2. That's interesting.
On another note - I would still be comfortable at 6K porting for EB2I prior to mid 2008.

Wow. 13K WW porters? That's huge. Not sure if that's been increasing (like porting from EB3-I) That might reduce the spill from EB2ROW to EB2-I?

[qesehmk]

Yes of course it must be increasing. EB3ROW never had any pains. Their pain started when the vertical spillovers became horizontal (around 2007?). Thus EB3ROW was deprived of the huge spillover from EB4/5/1/2. And EB2IC started receiving it. So obviously an EB3ROW candidate will do what an EB3IC candidate will do - port. What's surprising is that the volume of EB3I is comparable to EB3ROW (at least when looking at 485 cases). Yes the porting in ROW is 2-3 times more than EB3I. That would be interesting.

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

Wow. 13K WW porters? That's huge. Not sure if that's been increasing (like porting from EB3-I) That might reduce the spill from EB2ROW to EB2-I?

[gc_soon]

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

Thanks for the clarification Q.

[suninphx]

Yes of course it must be increasing. EB3ROW never had any pains. Their pain started when the vertical spillovers became horizontal (around 2007?). Thus EB3ROW was deprived of the huge spillover from EB4/5/1/2. And EB2IC started receiving it. So obviously an EB3ROW candidate will do what an EB3IC candidate will do - port. What's surprising is that the volume of EB3I is comparable to EB3ROW (at least when looking at 485 cases). Yes the porting in ROW is 2-3 times more than EB3I. That would be interesting.

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

IMO - HR3012 also would have contributed to increased EB3ROW porting. If HR3012 would have become law then EB3 ROW would have felt most impact.

[Spectator]

I already have an analysis of Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW over the period FY2011, FY2012 and FY2013 to date which I have mentioned before.

That shows that porting cases in normal EB2-ROW have varied from 13.3% in FY2011 to 9.8% in FY2012 and FY2013 to date. NIW has virtually no porting cases.

As I have said previously, there are other reasons why actual approvals differ from any calculation based on basic PERM approvals.

Between 9% and 13% of EB2-ROW approvals over the period are for Indian nationals with ROW chargebility. For EB2-NIW the figure is between 1 and 3%. PERM certification data is by Nationality and will not reflect this.

Another indeterminable % of approvals will be from Schedule A cases that do not need a PERM certification. I have no estimate for this.

Finally, NIW cases are not captured in the PERM data. They accounted for 11% of total EB2-ROW approvals in FY2011, 14% in FY2012 and currently 19% in FY2013.

Together, it means that EB2 approvals from PERM certifications are likely to represent only two thirds or less of the total. In other words, any PERM based calculation for EB2-ROW needs to be multiplied by 1.5 or more.

The data isn't good enough to do the same analysis for Mexico and Philippines.

It should be noted that Philippines are likely to have a far higher % of Schedule A cases than ROW.

[Spectator]

Too late to do anything with it tonight.

I'll try to update FACTS & DATA over the weekend.

It doesn't appear to have been a very productive quarter for DOL.

The latest PD Month Certified is really only September 2012 and even that only appears to be half complete.

Edit:- The updated figures are now available in FACTS & DATA.

[veni001]

Too late to do anything with it tonight.

I'll try to update FACTS & DATA over the weekend.

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

[pdmay2008]

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

[geeaarpee]

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

But it can't be all eb2 #s right, some might be eb3 right? AND it shouldn't be just eb2I porting right? all the eb2row,M,P,C portings will affect our SOFAD right?

Also I see the following figures - am I missing something or probably looking at a wrong report?

Total - 16,724
Denied/Withdrawn - 2212
Certified - 12,123
India - 6,935(57%)

[Spectator]

The PERM Data posts have now been updated in the FACTS & DATA section.