How will the movement of dates be starting FY 2014?
DOS cannot move dates like last year because there will be documentarily qualified cases(more than 10K) as per demand data but no visa numbers will be available at the beginning of FY 2014 to issue to them making a impediment for building future backlog of qualified cases.
Please throw some light on this.
Thanks Spec for giving some hope for all of us. It all based on when CO gets the information from USCIS about these available numbers in the last quarter of FY13.Originally Posted by Spectator
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
Looking at bulletin archives, (Aug and Sep 2008 and 2010 bulletins) looks like this info will be available only by Sep bulletin as Spec pointed above. It's kind of sad how USCIS/DOS works inefficiently though the information is even publicly available much earlier.
I'm sure Spec can do a much better job than CO in setting the cut off dates.
It is very surprising that no other forum, news place has discussed this SO VERY IMPORTANT NEWS of FB extra visas!!
I wonder, Spec maybe you should broadcast thsis news and make some real Green!
This is amazing!
The kind words are becoming almost embarrassing!
I hope I don't end up with egg on my face. Worse than bad news is raising hopes, only for them to be dashed. I've provided the evidence of both the law and what has happened historically, so I am reasonably confident that it will happen.
I am a little surprised that no-one else has made the connection yet or "leaked" it to another site. In fact no-one else seems to realise the FY2012 figures have been published.
Any thanks should go to Q, who had the foresight to set up and fund the only website dedicated to Calculations & Predictions. There is nothing else like it on the web.
In addition, it is one of very few sites where people can have differing views, yet still discuss them in an adult, yet respectful way.
Also, the moderators do a great job of keeping the forum free of distractions like spam and moving posts to the relevant forum sections. It's unseen work, but it makes a big difference.
I don't really post anywhere else, nor particularly wish to.
It's so good to see some optimism again. I know it has been a very tough year to date for those in EB2-I.
In amongst the euphoria, spare a thought for all those in EB3. Two Countries are only moving at a week / month and even the best case is 6 years retrogression. Unlike EB2, they have no prospect of extra visas from spillover and have been sold short on their allocation for the last two years.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
One trackitt user posted link to Spec's post but people there could not appreciate the value. The subsequent replies to the post were very disappointing. But I am not surprised ...that's the case with many of the threads there.
LoL! Spec - don't deflect this on me. This credit is entirely yours! You found out the FB numbers.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec and Q,
Since everyone is so excited about this latest news (moving 18K odd visas from FB to EB) based on Spec's calculation, Is there anyway we can somehow pass this news to CO and the Visa Office?
This way they can start proactively planning 2-3 months in advance and move dates gradually (i.e. giving GCs based on priority date) rather than opening the flood gates in September and only few lucky ones getting it, wasting the remaining visas.
I feel this is very important data that needs to reach the visa office ASAP. We are talking about 18,000 additional visas and bulk of them are going to help EB2 India folks.
If there is any reader in this forum who have reputable attorneys (Murthy, Fragomen, Gotcher, Oh Law Firm etc) then we can start by sharing this news with them and ask them to pass it on to CO.
Thanks once again Spec and Q for this wonderful data and he great forum
Spec, I looked up the Sept 2008 bulletin and that was the year with 20K visas coming from FB to EB. Because of the FBI name check issues, EB2IC dates were at Aug 2006 and EB3 was U. But that year USCIS reported the extra numbers on July 22nd. I quote the Sept 2008 bulletin below:
How do you think this will play out this year? First, will DoS move dates to reflect the 18K bonus across all EB categories? Second, will USCIS be able to process 18K extra approvals across all categories in the month of Sept? I do not know how they managed in 2008. The spill over beyond these numbers may be allocated earlier and hence we may see some movement in July and August for EB2I. At least I hope so.E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by the Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to officially determine of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while awaiting the CIS data, the Visa Office bases allocations on the minimum annual limits as outlined in Section 201 of the INA, along with estimates. On July 22nd, CIS provided the required data to the Visa Office.
The Department of State has determined the family and employment preference limits for FY-2008 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. The numerical limits for FY-2008 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-based preference limit: 162,704
Under the INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2008 the per-country limit is 27,209. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,774.
PS: This is my 500th post on the forum. Yay!
I've been doing my math based on your numbers and I tend to agree with Q's predictions, if FB visas are not wasted after they spill-over to EB, we will likely clear out 2008. Thank you so much for your "discovery". It's been a frustrating wait but I hope to get it this year, God willing..
Thank you so much for your patient work. I know that you already have your GC and don't have to come over here...
That may be the reason why PD predictions were given only until June in March VB.
EB2I:TSC, PD:05/28/2008, I-485 Applied:01/10/2012, 485-Receipt:01/16/2012, FP:02/17/2012, EAD/AP approval:03/08/2012, Received RFE:05/18/2012, RFE Replied:06/22/2012, RFE Status Update:07/12/2012, 485-Approval;?
Hello people,
I stumbled upon this forum quite recently. I should say people here are doing a remarkable job. Salute your efforts.
I visit Ron Gotcher's forum regularly and thats about it. I posted the detailed analysis from S on ron's forum to spread the word. I hope thats ok.
Thanks!
The demand data shows there 30k+ waiting. I don't think they'll have a problem using the additional 18k.
Thankfully and mercifully so. But the logistically question still remains. From recent history, the most that USCIS has processed in a month is around 8K and this with the preadjudicated cases. So processing 18K will remain a challenge. Moreover, not all preadjudicated cases are approvable so the dates need to be moved a little more so as to not waste any numbers. These and there may be other challenges to cram it all in one month of September. If CIR passes, we may be in for a bonanza but it may also bring out the worst in USCIS as they may practically ignore everything else in order to tend to the deluge of 11 million cases.
I see from the past VBs, this info was send to DOS by USCIS between Jun 1st week to Aug 1st week and DOS published the recalculated visa numbers in subsequent VBs : Aug or Sep VB of that year. So if they publish in Aug VB then it will be out in July 1st week and hence they will have entire quarter to plan for it. I don't think they will sought for fresh application for this allocation instead they will rely on clearing the backlogs i.e. pre-adjudicated cases.
People have become so pessimistic after seeing last 5 VBs and it will take some time for them to come out of that inertia. Initially they disagree this, later realise it & then comes the acceptance. It might take atleast 1 to 2 months that the other sites realize and accept your predictions.
A different viewpoint is that the EB visas lost in earlier years which we are trying to recapture with various bills are coming back to the EB category through this method.I am not sure how many EB visas were lost through all those years but > 50000 have come back into this category according to Spec's calculations
gs1968,
In fact 180k visas have already been recaptured due to AC21 (130k) and for Schedule A (50k).
After those are taken into account, up until this year, EB has received slightly more visas back from FB than they have been wasted in the period since 1992.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Just saw someone posted this on trackitt, funny the way it was mentioned.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...to-eb-in-fy201
Spec..
thanks for all the hardwork and giving us a good news!! Possible 13K greencards for EB2I is a great news!
I am wondering why you have used the work 'back'. Does that mean green card numbers from EB has moved to FB sometime back?
skpanda,
The word is probably superfluous.
The reason I used it was because of the circular nature of who receives what visas.
Although FB receive any unused EB visas (in the same way as EB receive unused FB visas), very rarely can they benefit from them. This is because the fairly complex FB calculation usually results in a figure lower than the minimum allowed 226k (due to high numbers of Immediate Relative approvals).
That is not the case with spare visas flowing to EB from FB. EB has a very simple calculation and always gets the full benefit.
So, FB do have wasted visas to recapture (ie they never increased the numbers available to them), whereas the reality is that EB don't, since the wasted visas effectively came back to them from FB.
If we get them - it's a bonus.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Here is an explanation from DOS how they arrived at the FB & EB limit in the year 2010:
Family-sponsored Preferences Limit
-----------------------------------
The annual limit is calculated as 480,000 minus the number of aliens who were issued visas or who adjusted to LPR status in the previous fiscal year as
1) immediate relatives of U.S. citizens,
2) children born subsequent to the issuance of a visa to an accompanying parent,and
3) children born abroad to lawful permanent residents on temporary trips abroad minus
4) certain categories of aliens paroled into the United States in the second preceding fiscal year plus
5) unused employment preferences in the preceding year.
The family-sponsored preference limit may not fall below a minimum of 226,000 in any year. The number of legal permanent residents
issued visas or who adjusted status in 2009 under categories 1 to 4 above was 547,193. There were zero unused employment preferences in 2009.
The calculated limit for family-sponsored preferences in 2010 was –67,193 (480,000 minus 547,193 plus 0).
Since this number was below 226,000, the family-sponsored preference limit was set at 226,000
Employment-based Preference Limit
----------------------------------
The annual limit is equal to 140,000 plus unused family-sponsored preferences in the previous fiscal year.
There were 10,657 unused family-sponsored preferences in 2009. The 2010 employment- based preference limit was 150,657.
The limit is 28.6 percent of the total for each of the first three employment preferences and 7.1 percent for each of the last two preferences.
Per Country and Dependent Area Limits
------------------------------------
A limit of 7 percent of the total family-sponsored and employment-based preferences is set for independent countries, and a limit of 2 percent is set for dependent areas. The 2010 per country
limit for independent foreign states was 26,365 (7 percent of 376,657 or 226,000 plus 150,657), and the limit for dependencies was 7,533 (2 percent of 376,657).
Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.
Looks like DOS took into account the extra visas from FB category.
Someone on trackitt posted this http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page .
Ok I have some confirmed NEWS for you guys.... Check the link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDeman...
on 02/11 - the same pdf that I saved had total EB world wide limit was 140,000
Today 02/15 - The number changed to 158,000
EB2I changed from 2803 to 3163 - so only 360 extra was allocated!!!
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