EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[kd2008]

This is the most important trend that made possible to move the EB2-I backlogs in the last 2 years and this will continue further untill EB2-I becomes current.
We no need to worry about the EB3-I porting even they steal some EB2-I visas by way of porting still we will reach to 2009 levels by the end of the 2013. All we need to do is sit tightly and experience the rollar coaster ride in coming months.

It is not that simple. There are sudden unexplained spikes in all kinds of demands from EB1, EB4 and EB5. PERM and I-140 processing times do get erratic and affect spillovers.

Since India's share of PERM applications is increasing, it is straightforward to expect India's spillover share to increase as other countries consume less. But that has not happened to the extent it was expected.

[qesehmk]

Thats actually true. His comments are very reactive to the small aperture of window of last few months and next few months. He doesn't take into consideration any spillover at all.

.. I don't think CO does much analysis.

[Spectator]

Spec, could you please help answer this question for me?

In the past, when there was a preadjudicated pipeline available for EB2IC, CO has at most moved dates that might approve 8K/month I think. Given the possibility of FB spillover to EB, shouldn't CO then start moving dates before July visa bulletin? If so, then does it contradict his prediction for movement in Apr-June?

kd,

I tend to agree that CO comments are very simplistic and based purely on monthly allocations without regard to other factors.

The same was also true of the EB3-ROW movements. Their current backlog will run out in 3 months, so the dates need to move beyond July 2007 early enough to ensure a continued supply of cases that are ready to adjudicate.

That's less of a factor for EB2-I, since most cases are already pre-adjudicated and it is a relatively speedy process to make the final approval, even if a new IBIS check needs to be performed prior to doing so.

[YTeleven]

kd,

I understand what you are saying. There might be other factors which we might not even imagine to decide what is the spillover this year like Spec found a windfall of FB visas(~18k) ready to be spilled in this year.
All I was trying to say is that no body can't suddenly change the below trend which took last few years to setup, it will take same years of time to break or change back.
----------------------------------------------------
-------------------2010----2011----2012----2013
----------------------------------------------------
EB2-I Visas---------20k ---~24k ---~20k-----???----
INDIA PERM Share--41%----52% ----56% ---57%----
----------------------------------------------------

It is not that simple. There are sudden unexplained spikes in all kinds of demands from EB1, EB4 and EB5. PERM and I-140 processing times do get erratic and affect spillovers.

Since India's share of PERM applications is increasing, it is straightforward to expect India's spillover share to increase as other countries consume less. But that has not happened to the extent it was expected.

[bvsamrat]

I tend to agree with YT. Spikes come and go. But the trend can not just reverse, unless there is a major law change(Even the change(CIR) will be in favor only).

We expect minimum of 20K as usual as always. I guess CO might be delaying just to streamline porter application which will be added in next years demand. My guess :- spill over will come into effct from June

kd,

I understand what you are saying. There might be other factors which we might not even imagine to decide what is the spillover this year like Spec found a windfall of FB visas(~18k) ready to be spilled in this year.
All I was trying to say is that no body can't suddenly change the below trend which took last few years to setup, it will take same years of time to break or change back.
----------------------------------------------------
-------------------2010----2011----2012----2013
----------------------------------------------------
EB2-I Visas---------20k ---~20k ---~20k-----???----
INDIA PERM Share--41%----52% ----56% ---57%----
----------------------------------------------------

[Kanmani]

Spec, Thank you . Great news.

[openaccount]

good to hear some positive news its been a while.

From murthy in Nov2012:

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

I wonder if CO had this in mind when he mentioned there might be 13k SO back in October, it does match exactly with FB extra numbers--18k if you remove 5k--which would go to EB3 that would leave 13k to EB2IC. Also he must have looked at Fy2012 EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5/EB4 consumption and estimated similar usage in FY2013 for those categories which will give nearly 0 spill over from regular EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5/EB4 numbers--100k, but i think this is not true there might be around 4-7k SO from regular numbers had there been no FB extra numbers.

Spec, has anything changed with respect to EB1/EB2ROWMP consumption so far can we still assume that they are going to give around 2-3k SO--technically from EB1 excluding FB extra numbers.

[venkat]

Excellent news Spec. This was welcome news especially after the pessimistic prediction made by CO for future date movement in the latest visa bulletin.

I really don't know why he is giving out negative news (i.e. dates may have to be retrogressed etc) when there is definitely going to be SPILL OVER from other EB categories (like EB1, EB5 and EB2 ROW etc) and the visa numbers recovery from FB category not utilized in 2012.

Does anyone know what advantage he gets by scaring the EB2I guys?

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

[Spectator]

good to hear some positive news its been a while.

Spec, has anything changed with respect to EB1/EB2ROWMP consumption so far can we still assume that they are going to give around 2-3k SO--technically from EB1 excluding FB extra numbers.

openaccount,

I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.

That said, the FY2012 figures appear to have improved most things IMO.

The figures below relate to a normal 140k allocation. 18.5k extra from FB would add another potential 13.2k spillover (EB3 get an extra 5.3k).

In my usual conservative style ( it could well be better):

EB1

Difficult to call, since FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. FY2011 was low (25k) due to that and FY2012 (40k) was probably high due to the after effects. Hopefully EB1 could provide at least 5k.

EB4

Again, EB4 didn't use their full allocation (which was slightly surprising), so they may give some spillover in FY2013. Let's say 2k.

EB5

EB5 is likely to use close to their full allocation.

That means at least 20k spillover available to EB2, including extra FB numbers.

EB2-WW

They might potentially use a small amount of spillover due to the extra numbers flowing into FY2013 because of retrogression.

It's looking quite promising from an initial look.

[openaccount]

I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.

Hope it gets resolved soon. Thank you for the detailed analysis.

[harapatta2012]

Spec,

Hope your crisis would be resolved soon, not just saying to be mean, but sincerely hope that because you have helped everyone always.

Your recent post on FB spillover has changed everyone's EMOTIONAL status, in positive way.Its big...giant news..next atleast 200 posts are going to be just about this...my prediction here.

Thanks for your analysis and efforts, you have been a BIG help.

openaccount,

I'm in the middle of a crisis at the moment, so I don't have the time presently to look at the numbers fully.

That said, the FY2012 figures appear to have improved most things IMO.

The figures below relate to a normal 140k allocation. 18.5k extra from FB would add another potential 13.2k spillover (EB3 get an extra 5.3k).

In my usual conservative style ( it could well be better):

EB1

Difficult to call, since FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. FY2011 was low (25k) due to that and FY2012 (40k) was probably high due to the after effects. Hopefully EB1 could provide at least 5k.

EB4

Again, EB4 didn't use their full allocation (which was slightly surprising), so they may give some spillover in FY2013. Let's say 2k.

EB5

EB5 is likely to use close to their full allocation.

That means at least 20k spillover available to EB2, including extra FB numbers.

EB2-WW

They might potentially use a small amount of spillover due to the extra numbers flowing into FY2013 because of retrogression.

It's looking quite promising from an initial look.

[free2talk]

Spec great Job as usual
its the best news since the last surge in EB2 - I last year.Lets hope we get out of this mess soon.

[bvsamrat]

Thanks Q and Spec

Based on Q's update - Spill Over expected: 15K (excluding annual quota to EB2I/C which we assume that is give to porters from now on till September 2013)

Based on Spec's data:

Spill over from FB to EB2I/C: 13K

Total available from spill over 28K(excluding normal allocation which is given to porters as we know from last 3 months same date hence monthly quota = porters demand)

Demand from March 2013 DOS data up to 1st January 2009 is : 23,975

Assume 4 months demand is 4,000(conservative figure),

Most likey September bulletin will have EB2 cut off date would be May 1st 2009.

By this time: Pray that CIR would be in place- mainly to remove country cap

Or else, porters might increase exponentially and make PD dates go back again to 2005 making this a yo yo game.

Spec,

Hope your crisis would be resolved soon, not just saying to be mean, but sincerely hope that because you have helped everyone always.

Your recent post on FB spillover has changed everyone's EMOTIONAL status, in positive way.Its big...giant news..next atleast 200 posts are going to be just about this...my prediction here.

Thanks for your analysis and efforts, you have been a BIG help.

[Spectator]

Just to show why I am so excited about the FB figures (save any changes that CIR could make to the law), here is an analysis of expected extra visas from FB (calculated from the DOS Visa Statistics) versus Actual extra visa received.

------------ Stats --- Actual
FY2008 -- 22,707 --- 22,704
FY2009 ------- 0 -------- 0
FY2010 -- 10,667 --- 10,657
FY2011 ------- 0 -------- 0
FY2012 --- 4,958 ---- 4,951
FY2013 -- 18,465 ---- ?????

[YTeleven]

Thanks Spec for finding this hidden treasure. It seems we have to wait till Aug'13 VB or may be Sep'13 VB to see these numbers become official.

[kkruna]

For IC, the demand is 27,475 til Jan 1, 2009.

Thanks Q and Spec

Based on Q's update - Spill Over expected: 15K (excluding annual quota to EB2I/C which we assume that is give to porters from now on till September 2013)

Based on Spec's data:

Spill over from FB to EB2I/C: 13K

Total available from spill over 28K(excluding normal allocation which is given to porters as we know from last 3 months same date hence monthly quota = porters demand)

Demand from March 2013 DOS data up to 1st January 2009 is : 23,975

Assume 4 months demand is 4,000(conservative figure),

Most likey September bulletin will have EB2 cut off date would be May 1st 2009.

By this time: Pray that CIR would be in place- mainly to remove country cap

Or else, porters might increase exponentially and make PD dates go back again to 2005 making this a yo yo game.

[gc_soon]

I hope CO looks into this hidden treasure and starts moving dates in steps earlier, rather than one large push with random approvals and retrogress again. But based on message from latest bulletin, looks like CO is not keen into looking into spillover in Q3.

[vizcard]

I hope CO looks into this hidden treasure and starts moving dates in steps earlier, rather than one large push with random approvals and retrogress again. But based on message from latest bulletin, looks like CO is not keen into looking into spillover in Q3.

Smaller moves theoretically means more porters get in to the demand pipeline. I see major movements in the Aug and Sept VBs.

[sdesh005]

Awesome! So it looks like some date in 2009 is a reality then for FY 2013!

I am stoked about this as well! If we really get to 2009 by the end of FY13, then I am hopeful that July 2009 PD can be had some time in 2014, irrespective of CIR!

[Spectator]

The IC combined demand until Jan 1 is 27K. I will add 1-2K more for porting cases, although I feel once the dates start moving, all porting case processing will stop. There are probably 3k+ visas left for IC combined from the country quota itself. So about 25-26K cases will need to be processed. If the whole 18.4K spillover from FB is available to EB, then the total anticipated spillover is easily more than that (it could be as much as 35K) and the dates can make a march into 2009.

This might help people understand how the extra visas would be distributed:

--------- 158.5k ---- 140k ----- Diff
EB1 ----- 45,321 --- 40,040 ---- 5,281
EB2-C ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-I ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-M ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-P ---- 3,172 ---- 2,803 ------ 369
EB2-ROW - 32,633 --- 28,828 ---- 3,805

EB4 ----- 11,251 ---- 9,940 ---- 1,311
EB5 ----- 11,251 ---- 9,940 ---- 1,311

Extra -- 113,144 --- 99,960 --- 13,184

EB3 ----- 45,321 --- 40,040 ---- 5,281

Totals - 158,465 -- 140,000 --- 18,465

[Prabhas]

OK, my bad. The "additional" numbers for spillover = 13.5K, as 5.5K extra will go to EB3. Thanks spec! 2009 is "iffy" now, but the date can sure come very very close.

Spec,

While this is a great news, I have a lame question. If there are additional visas from FB wouldn't that be added to EB at the beginning of FY2013? That being said I guess the Demand Data should show estimated allocation numbers for each category as some 3200 visas and not 2,803. If I remember correctly, this is how it used to be represented on DD whenever there are additional visas from FB to EB historically. Is CO fooling around or am I not reading into it correctly?

Cheers,

[Spectator]

Spec,

While this is a great news, I have a lame question. If there are additional visas from FB wouldn't that be added to EB at the beginning of FY2013? That being said I guess the Demand Data should show estimated allocation numbers for each category as some 3200 visas and not 2,803. If I remember correctly, this is how it used to be represented on DD whenever there are additional visas from FB to EB historically. Is CO fooling around or am I not reading into it correctly?

Cheers,

Prabhas,

It's a fair question.

Although CO must know about the numbers, DOS cannot officially announce the revised figure for EB until USCIS provides some figures required for the calculation (even though it has very little effect on the number). That is generally quite late in the year. Quite why it takes USCIS 11 months to provide this information is completely beyond me!

For example, last year, the extra numbers were not announced until the September VB. Until then, it just said "at least 140,000". From the September 2012 VB:

D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.

CO created a lot of problems by releasing numbers too early last year, so he seems to be very cautious this year as a result.

[ragx08]

Its been a long time since I've seen any positive news in the blog - thanks to Spec's work!!! Hang in there friends - the wait is not not going to last forever.

Good luck to all!

[kuku82]

Spec,

Just curious, how come FB category doesn't use all available visas when none of those sub-categories are ever current?

[geevikram]

Spec,

Just curious, how come FB category doesn't use all available visas when none of those sub-categories are ever current?

Processing delays? Just thinking.