EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.

I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[idiotic]

Pushing back EB2-I dates by another few years will make a good argument for EB based immigration reform

[sdesh005]

Pushing back EB2-I dates by another few years will make a good argument for EB based immigration reform

I'm not sure if that's they way we want to push ahead our agenda! I'll take forward movement with CIR because we can get that.

[SeekingGC2013]

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.

Hey this is in regards to the below post
@qesehmk - GURU

based on the recent update on March Bulletin - and expectancy that dates would move in 4th Qtr of Fiscal Year2013 - after the dates are moved forward would they retrogress again?
My PD - 05/08 - EB2 - what are the chances that i can get my Green Card before Dec 2013? Can you please give your best Guesstimate and analysis?

Would greatly Appreciate your response.

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.
Originally Posted by geevikram
I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[qesehmk]

SeeingGC - What you have today is DoS is holding back EB2I dates on a technicality. The technicality being the definition of oversubscription in a category for a country. So EB2I has probably more than 3K (ie. its annual quota) demand prior to where the visa dates are today. That gives VO enough ammo to hold the entire country dates prior to whatever 2004/2005 dates they are today. The reality is all of that come Jun - EB2I will receive SOFAD (based on historical precedence) more than 13-15K which is enough to move EB2I dates into 2008. That's the logic / rationale.

Hey this is in regards to the below post
@qesehmk - GURU

based on the recent update on March Bulletin - and expectancy that dates would move in 4th Qtr of Fiscal Year2013 - after the dates are moved forward would they retrogress again?
My PD - 05/08 - EB2 - what are the chances that i can get my Green Card before Dec 2013? Can you please give your best Guesstimate and analysis?

Would greatly Appreciate your response.

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.
Originally Posted by geevikram
I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[Spectator]

FY2012 Visa Approvals

144,951 visas were available to EB in FY2012
That represents 41,456 for each of EB1-EB3
7% in each of EB1-EB3 was 2,902

226,000 visas were available to FB in FY2012

FY2012-EB Visa Approvals

Total EB Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,183 --- 5,858 --- 2,827 ----- 117 -- 6,124 --- 21,109
INDIA ----- 9,506 -- 19,726 --- 2,804 ----- 600 ----- 77 --- 32,713
MEXICO ---- 2,054 ----- 823 --- 3,748 ----- 881 ----- 81 ---- 7,587
PHIL. ------- 266 --- 2,408 --- 6,479 ----- 350 ------ 1 ---- 9,504
ROW ------ 21,378 -- 21,778 -- 23,691 --- 5,530 -- 1,358 --- 73,735

TOTAL ---- 39,387 -- 50,593 -- 39,549 --- 7,478 -- 7,641 -- 144,648

303 visas were wasted in EB (0.2%)

EB2 Approvals

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER

EB1 --------- 2,069
EB2-M ------- 2,079
EB2-P --------- 494
EB2-ROW ----- 8,070
EB4 --------- 2,813
EB5 --------- 2,651

TOTAL ------ 18,176

SPILLOVER USED

Spillover -- 19,780
EB2-IC ------ 5,804

SOFAD ------ 25,584

SPILLOVER
WASTAGE ---- (1,604) A negative number indicates that more spillover was used than was available from EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5

SPILLOVER ALLOCATION

--------------- No. ---- % --
CHINA ------- 2,956 -- 14.94%
INDIA ------ 16,824 -- 85.06%

TOTAL ------ 19,780 - 100.00%


EB3 Approvals

EB3-China received 225 more visas than their allocation of 2,602 visas (8.65%).
EB3-India received 98 less visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (3.38%).
EB3-Mexico received 846 more visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (29.15%).
EB3-Philippines received 3,577 more visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (123.26%).
EB3-ROW received 7,538 less visas than their allocation of 30,956 visas (24.14%).
Adjusted for M&P usage, EB3-ROW received 3,115 less visas that expected (12.61%).

EB3 received 1,907 less visas than the allocation of 41,456 (4.60%).


EB1
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 6,183 -- 15.70% ---- 273 -- 4.42% ----- 6.83%
India --------- 9,506 -- 24.13% ----- 79 -- 0.83% ----- 1.51%
Mexico -------- 2,054 --- 5.21% ----- 19 -- 0.93% ----- 3.81%
Philippines ----- 266 --- 0.68% ----- 22 -- 8.27% ----- 8.77%
ROW ---------- 21,378 -- 54.28% -- 1,141 -- 5.34% ----- 7.90%

Total -------- 39,387 - 100.00% -- 1,534 -- 3.89% ----- 6.39%


EB2
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 5,858 -- 11.58% ----- 78 -- 1.33% ----- 0.80%
India -------- 19,726 -- 38.99% ---- 140 -- 0.71% ----- 0.55%
Mexico ---------- 823 --- 1.63% ----- 21 -- 2.55% ----- 1.57%
Philippines --- 2,408 --- 4.76% ---- 254 - 10.55% ----- 7.90%
ROW ---------- 21,778 -- 43.05% ---- 905 -- 4.16% ----- 4.02%

Total -------- 50,593 - 100.00% -- 1,398 -- 2.76% ----- 2.52%


EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 2,827 --- 7.15% -- 1,423 - 50.34% ---- 58.69%
India --------- 2,804 --- 7.09% ---- 231 -- 8.24% ----- 6.57%
Mexico -------- 3,748 --- 9.48% ---- 248 -- 6.62% ----- 5.20%
Philippines --- 6,479 -- 16.38% -- 3,027 - 46.72% ---- 38.32%
ROW ---------- 23,691 -- 59.90% -- 3,381 - 14.27% ---- 19.21%

Total -------- 39,549 - 100.00% -- 8,310 - 21.01% ---- 20.21%


EB4
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China ----------- 117 --- 1.56% ------ 3 -- 2.56% ---- 20.51%
India ----------- 600 --- 8.02% ---- 138 - 23.00% ---- 38.96%
Mexico ---------- 881 -- 11.78% ------ 5 -- 0.57% ----- 3.09%
Philippines ----- 350 --- 4.68% ----- 89 - 25.43% ---- 28.62%
ROW ----------- 5,530 -- 73.95% ---- 982 - 17.76% ---- 21.93%

Total --------- 7,478 - 100.00% -- 1,217 - 16.27% ---- 21.31%


EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 6,124 -- 80.15% -- 5,683 - 92.80% ---- 92.73%
India ------------ 77 --- 1.01% ----- 28 - 36.36% ---- 32.43%
Mexico ----------- 81 --- 1.06% ----- 14 - 17.28% ----- 7.55%
Philippines ------- 1 --- 0.01% ------ 1 100.00% ----- 0.00%
ROW ----------- 1,358 -- 17.77% ---- 952 - 70.10% ---- 65.42%

Total --------- 7,641 - 100.00% -- 6,678 - 87.40% ---- 83.14%


EB1 - EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China -------- 21,109 -- 14.59% -- 7,460 - 35.34% ---- 23.66%
India -------- 32,713 -- 22.62% ---- 616 -- 1.88% ----- 1.97%
Mexico -------- 7,587 --- 5.25% ---- 307 -- 4.05% ----- 4.43%
Philippines --- 9,504 --- 6.57% -- 3,393 - 35.70% ---- 24.33%
ROW ---------- 73,735 -- 50.98% -- 7,361 -- 9.98% ---- 11.24%

Total ------- 144,648 - 100.00% - 19,137 - 13.23% ---- 10.84%


EB1 - EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China -------- 14,868 -- 11.48% -- 1,774 - 11.93% ---- 12.40%
India -------- 32,036 -- 24.73% ---- 450 -- 1.40% ----- 1.43%
Mexico -------- 6,625 --- 5.11% ---- 288 -- 4.35% ----- 4.52%
Philippines --- 9,153 --- 7.07% -- 3,303 - 36.09% ---- 24.16%
ROW ---------- 66,847 -- 51.61% -- 5,427 -- 8.12% ----- 9.68%

Total ------- 129,529 - 100.00% - 11,242 -- 8.68% ----- 8.39%


FAMILY BASED
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 17,839 --- 8.60%
India -------- 12,149 --- 5.85%
Mexico ------- 41,975 -- 20.23%
Philippines -- 16,727 --- 8.06%
ROW --------- 118,845 -- 57.27%

Total ------- 207,535 - 100.00%

18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013.

EB & FB
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 38,948 -- 11.06%
India -------- 44,862 -- 12.74%
Mexico ------- 49,562 -- 14.07%
Philippines -- 26,231 --- 7.45%
ROW --------- 192,580 -- 54.68%

Total ------- 352,183 - 100.00%


Note:- I do not have a problem if portions of this data are reproduced on other websites. It is not fair to simply copy/paste everything.

However, it is a condition that, if the data is reproduced, a web link back to this page is included in any such post.

If a site forbids linking to this forum, then no content may be reproduced.

[gc_soon]

Spec,
Your comment, "18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013." - does it mean this could be available as spill over to EB in 2013 FY? If so, how does it get distributed across categories/countries?
Based on the data above and new bulletin, is there any change to your predictions?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec - finally.

First this completely debunks CO 's claim that ROW would have to be retrogressed. The fact is EB2ROW didn't even use their own quota as we always believed. I am glad our call on that one was right.

On the other hand, what also should be comforting to EB2I community is that, the overall visa consumption is not at all abnormal compared to other years. That includes EB5 which indeed consumed more but not all of their own quota. EB1 was also as expected because in 2011 kazarian memo helped EB2 but it had only delayed as opposed to removed the demand.

So overall going forward - I think people should expect exactly the same performance in 2013 - perhaps 4K less. But even with that the dates will fly into Q2 2008 at least.

[qesehmk]

Header of the thread updated.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Your comment, "18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013." - does it mean this could be available as spill over to EB in 2013 FY?
Based on the data above and new bulletin, is there any change to your predictions?

The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013. There will be some small adjustments to that figure.

That would make the numbers available to each Category as Follows:

EB1 - 45,321
EB2 - 45,321
EB3 - 45,321
EB4 - 11,251
EB5 - 11,251

This would certainly increase the potential spillover enormously and make a huge difference to any calculations I have made to date.

It would also increase the 7% figure to 3,172 in each of EB1-EB3.

I'll work through the figures when time permits.

[qesehmk]

Now that would be unbelievable spec!! That would potentially move dates into 2009 for EB2I.

The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013.

[gc_soon]

Thanks Spec, that's positive to hear. Looking forward to the revised calculations.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec - finally.

First this completely debunks CO 's claim that ROW would have to be retrogressed. The fact is EB2ROW didn't even use their own quota as we always believed. I am glad our call on that one was right.

Q,

EB2-ROW would probably have used their entire allocation (or very close to it) in FY2012 had the dates not been retrogressed.

EB2-Philippines would certainly have exceeded theirs.

Only EB2-Mexico (as expected) would not have used their full allocation.

Taken as a whole, without retrogression, EB2-WW might have contributed 3k spillover at most in FY2012 and EB2-IC would have received about 7-8k less (which now falls through to FY2013).

Had there not been the prospect of extra visas from FB, EB2-WW retrogression at the end of FY2013, while certainly unlikely, was not impossible, given they have a full year's demand plus the 7-8k.

I think that more disturbing is the fact that for the second year running, EB3 (and really it's EB3ROW) have effectively subsidized EB2-IC and EB3 did not receive the full numbers due to them by a wide margin.

[qesehmk]

Spec - I think that if at all EB2ROW ran out of visas it was certainly because they were already allocated to EB2IC between Oct-Feb of FY 2012. Yet I think CO used that as a scare tactic for EB2I in particular. If you look at full year consumption - EB2ROW is not abnormal compared to other years. Perhaps it wouldve required 3K more but certainly not more. So coming back to this year - yes indeed that 3K will be carried over and perhaps EB2ROW may not yield any SOFAD. Will have to look into labor/140 data to figure that out. But the FB visas is a welcome news. I was afraid that 207K is the CP only number. But not so - that's total and so yes indeed 19K potential visas are awaiting for EB category. Whether CO will release them - is a different story

p.s. - EB3ROW subsidy is minor spec. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Q,

EB2-ROW would probably have used their entire allocation (or very close to it) in FY2012 had the dates not been retrogressed.

EB2-Philippines would certainly have exceeded theirs.

Only EB2-Mexico (as expected) would not have used their full allocation.

Taken as a whole, without retrogression, EB2-WW might have contributed 3k spillover at most in FY2012 and EB2-IC would have received about 7-8k less (which now falls through to FY2013).

Had there not been the prospect of extra visas from FB, EB2-WW retrogression at the end of FY2013, while certainly unlikely, was not impossible, given they have a full year's demand plus the 7-8k.

I think that more disturbing is the fact that for the second year running, EB3 (and really it's EB3ROW) have effectively subsidized EB2-IC and EB3 did not receive the full numbers due to them by a wide margin.

[harapatta2012]

Spec,

Wow what a news!!!!!!!

This seems to be THE news in almost 11 months now,,atleast since March 27th, 2012.

So FB WOULD provide 18,465 or even less, say 15,000, to EB, that still huge!!!

Now only thing is how likely would that be..That is what is likelihood that FB extra visas would 100% come to EB?

The news is great...needs more ..wows and ahhaa's...!

Thanks for posting such great news.

The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013. There will be some small adjustments to that figure.

That would make the numbers available to each Category as Follows:

EB1 - 45,321
EB2 - 45,321
EB3 - 45,321
EB4 - 11,251
EB5 - 11,251

This would certainly increase the potential spillover enormously and make a huge difference to any calculations I have made to date.

It would also increase the 7% figure to 3,172 in each of EB1-EB3.

I'll work through the figures when time permits.

[suninphx]

Spec- many thanks for all detailed number calculations and bringing in some great news !

[Spectator]

Spec,

Wow what a news!!!!!!!

This seems to be THE news in almost 11 months now,,atleast since March 27th, 2012.

So FB WOULD provide 18,465 or even less, say 15,000, to EB, that still huge!!!

Now only thing is how likely would that be..That is what is likelihood that FB extra visas would 100% come to EB?

The news is great...needs more ..wows and ahhaa's...!

Thanks for posting such great news.

harapatta,

I agree it is great news. I was surprised that not all the FB visas were used in FY2012.

It won't be announced officially until about the August VB, since DOS have to wait for the adjustment figures from USCIS and they always take a very long time to provide them. Nonetheless, CO must be aware of this.

The extra visas coming to EB in the next FY is the CURRENT LAW, so there should be no doubt that it should happen.

INA 203(d)

d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants


(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-


(A) 140,000 plus


(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).


(2) (A) The number computer under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.


(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 203(b) during that fiscal year.


(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 203(a) (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

where 203(a) is Preference Allocation for Family-Sponsored Immigrants.

In FY2012, EB received an extra 4,951 visas from FB. The difference in the FY2011 DOS Visa Statistics for FB was 4,958. There are some very minor adjustments to be made (to do with parolees).

[Spectator]

Spec- many thanks for all detailed number calculations and bringing in some great news !

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Spec - thats amazing news - finally after the State Of Union - it looks like Legal immigration is also being prioritized - hopefully some legalization changes should also make a lot of people happy in the next 6-7 months.

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

[gc_soon]

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Spec, I appreciate all the work you and Q put into analysis. With no transparency from the CO, your analysis shows how the near future may look like. Thanks once again for your work.

[suninphx]

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

[gc_soon]

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think CO does much analysis. For example, even though the I485 inventory released some time in FY2012 (when the PDs were moving forward rapidly) showed huge demand for EB2-I, CO made the comment that every effort will be made to bring back the dates to May 2010 in FY2013. I guess he looked only at Demand Data.
I'm just afraid that he might open the gate too close to end of FY, and visas get approved randomly instead of FIFO, and then dates retrogress back in FY 2014.

[nishant2200]

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

I think the comments are put without regards to SO.

[kd2008]

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Spec, could you please help answer this question for me?

In the past, when there was a preadjudicated pipeline available for EB2IC, CO has at most moved dates that might approve 8K/month I think. Given the possibility of FB spillover to EB, shouldn't CO then start moving dates before July visa bulletin? If so, then does it contradict his prediction for movement in Apr-June?

[YTeleven]

I agree with Q's logic. Here is some info to support that:
As I said earlier from the DD analysis, there is 250 visas allocation during Oct'12 for EB2-I and from Nov'12 to till now all the EB2-I visas are issued to the EB3-I to EB2-I porters and the rate is approxmately equal to the monthly quota of EB2-I and hence we are not seeing any movement in EB2-I. This will continue till the spillover comes into the picture in coming months.
Here is the past history of the EB2-I visa allocations:
----------------------------------------------------
2007---2008---2009---2010---2011---2012---2013
-----------------------------------------------------
6k -----15k ----10k----20k ----24k ----20k-----???
----------------------------------------------------
from the above data any statistical analyst can guess the 2013 figures as 20k without having any knowledge of EB comminity.
I would guess it could be more than that and the reason is the PERM approvals trend for INDIA:
----------------------------------------
2009----2010----2011-----2012----2013
----------------------------------------
39% ----41%-----52% -----56% ----57%
----------------------------------------
Imagine that if this trend goes to 80% in future, what happens? There will not be any country which will use its full annual reserved quota of 7% and all those visas spill over to EB2-I untill it becomes current.
This is the most important trend that made possible to move the EB2-I backlogs in the last 2 years and this will continue further untill EB2-I becomes current.
We no need to worry about the EB3-I porting even they steal some EB2-I visas by way of porting still we will reach to 2009 levels by the end of the 2013. All we need to do is sit tightly and experience the rollar coaster ride in coming months.

SeeingGC - What you have today is DoS is holding back EB2I dates on a technicality. The technicality being the definition of oversubscription in a category for a country. So EB2I has probably more than 3K (ie. its annual quota) demand prior to where the visa dates are today. That gives VO enough ammo to hold the entire country dates prior to whatever 2004/2005 dates they are today. The reality is all of that come Jun - EB2I will receive SOFAD (based on historical precedence) more than 13-15K which is enough to move EB2I dates into 2008. That's the logic / rationale.