EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

I am new in this forum, but seeing very interesting analysis, would like to know what you said Mar to June 2008, my PD is june 2008 EB2, i got my I-485 , but wondering when i can expect GC.
what your analysis said, regarding to this.

Ashoka / Mayde - welcome to the forum. The header is always updated. Pl check header for general guidance on the dates movement.

[Spectator]

The rough estimates are based on Trackitt data except for EB4 and EB5.

27% of the 140k visas may be issued in Q1. That is 37.8k.

Cat ------- k
EB1 ------ 8.3

EB2-C ---- 0.75
EB2-I ---- 1.25
EB2-WW -- 13.30

EB2-All - 15.3
EB3 ------ 9.6
EB4 ------ 2.7
EB5 ------ 2.7

Total --- 38.6

38.6k = 102% of the number of visas available, so it is in the correct ballpark.

Other little "factoids" from the Trackitt data.

• 67% of EB1-I approvals are for EB1C.

• 21% of EB2-ROW approvals are for EB2-NIW.

• 9% of EB2-ROW approvals are pre 2010 PD and are probably porting (none in NIW). That rises to 13% if PD2010 was included.

• 9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).

Since the data source is Trackitt, please view the figures accordingly. It has limitations.

For instance, there is very little data in EB1 for Countries other than India. EB1-I approvals accounted for 88% of all approvals on Trackitt, which is not in line with actual approvals in EB1.

Even with the limitations, I thought I would share.

[qesehmk]

Spec this is interesting - I never noticed this!

• 9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).

[Spectator]

Spec this is interesting - I never noticed this!

Q,

Glad you found it interesting.

As you might expect, most are from the Gulf States, Kuwait in particular, UAE, Saudi Arabia which historically have had a large Indian working population. Iran also crops up more than I would have thought.

[sbhagwat2000]

Q,

Glad you found it interesting.

As you might expect, most are from the Arab States, Kuwait in particular, UAE, Saudi Arabia which historically have had a large Indian working population. Iran also crops up more than I would have thought.

So do u think eb2ww will have a cutoff? Since they have approved 13000 instead of 5100

[Spectator]

So do u think eb2ww will have a cutoff? Since they have approved 13000 instead of 5100

sbhagwat2000,

I'm not sure how you calculate your figures.

EB2-WW yearly allocation is 40,040 - 5,606 = 34,434

27% of that is 9,296.

Q1 includes up to 3 months worth of EB2-WW cases that could not be approved in July-Sept 2012 due to retrogression. It was expected to be high.

CO said retrogression of EB2-WW might be possible late in FY2013, but that would only theoretically happen if they exceeded 34.4k plus any spillover from EB1. That seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. Your guess is as good as mine.

Since no new I-485 could be submitted with fairly recent PD in July-Sept 2012, a large number were probably only received by USCIS in October. Depending on how long USCIS take to process them, there could be a lull in EB2-WW approvals, before a further large number of approvals at a later time. This makes the predictions even harder.

For reference, I think the corresponding number of approvals in FY2012 Q1 for EB2-WW was about 7k.

[honesdirec]

Experts:

Please check this NY Times article

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us...email1=y&_r=1&

Please comment how exhaustion of EB5 quota will impact spillover and the projected movement of dates.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Experts:

Please check this NY Times article

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us...email1=y&_r=1&

Please comment how exhaustion of EB5 quota will impact spillover and the projected movement of dates.

Thanks

honesdirec,

Thanks for the article. Jay Peak is one of the highest profile EB5 projects.

It has already been discussed, at least in part.

The figures released by DOS to IIUSA gave a figure of 7,641 EB5 visas issued in FY2012.

CO warned in the December 2012 VB that a Cut Off Date for EB5-C is likely in FY2013.

I think the general consensus is that EB5 will not provide any spillover in FY2013.

[sbhagwat2000]

With EB5 providing no SO the only hope now is EB1. Hopefully that provides some extra numbers. Is there any hope from EB4 ? That also has a yearly quota of 10000. With such low numbers and high demand its no surprise that CO predicted the best case to be 2007. I dont think it will even reach 2006

[Spectator]

sbhagwat2000,

The latest thoughts by various people are always available on Page 1 of this thread.

I am sure they will all be updated in due course.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

Based on what you said on the first page:

How do you think there will be even 6000 visas for EB2 I? If EB1 is going to be close to 40000 or even reach 40000 and EB 2 WW is going to consume their entire qouta then its becoming clear that there will be no spillover to EB2 I. What are your thoughts in that scenario? If zero spillover then I think there will be no movement.

[Spectator]

How do you think there will be even 6000 visas for EB2 I? If EB1 is going to be close to 40000 or even reach 40000 and EB 2 WW is going to consume their entire qouta then its becoming clear that there will be no spillover to EB2 I. What are your thoughts in that scenario? If zero spillover then I think there will be no movement.

If , for instance, EB1 used 37k, then that would be about 6k available. Use your imagination - there are certainly enough uncertainties.

In a scenario where there was zero spillover, porting cases with fairly early PDs would certainly use all the available visas. It's impossible to say what the Cut Off Date would be if that were to happen, due to the lack of data on porting numbers by PD.

[shreyasai2004]

Visa Bullitein Page is update with status of

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013 (coming soon)............................................. ........

[abcx13]

The rough estimates are based on Trackitt data except for EB4 and EB5.

27% of the 140k visas may be issued in Q1. That is 37.8k.

Cat ------- k
EB1 ------ 8.3

EB2-C ---- 0.75
EB2-I ---- 1.25
EB2-WW -- 13.30

EB2-All - 15.3
EB3 ------ 9.6
EB4 ------ 2.7
EB5 ------ 2.7

Total --- 38.6

38.6k = 102% of the number of visas available, so it is in the correct ballpark.

Other little "factoids" from the Trackitt data.

• 67% of EB1-I approvals are for EB1C.

• 21% of EB2-ROW approvals are for EB2-NIW.

• 9% of EB2-ROW approvals are pre 2010 PD and are probably porting (none in NIW). That rises to 13% if PD2010 was included.

• 9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).

Since the data source is Trackitt, please view the figures accordingly. It has limitations.

For instance, there is very little data in EB1 for Countries other than India. EB1-I approvals accounted for 88% of all approvals on Trackitt, which is not in line with actual approvals in EB1.

Even with the limitations, I thought I would share.

I wonder what % of EB2-I approvals are EB2-NIW. That should be a proxy for relative quality of EB2-I candidates and EB2-ROW. My money says that the % of EB2-I-NIW is a lot lower than the % of EB2-ROW-NIW.

[Spectator]

I wonder what % of EB2-I approvals are EB2-NIW. That should be a proxy for relative quality of EB2-I candidates and EB2-ROW. My money says that the % of EB2-I-NIW is a lot lower than the % of EB2-ROW-NIW.

abcx13,

As we might expect, given the Cut Off Dates, none of the EB2-I chargeable approvals this year are NIW.

Last year, of 1,470 Trackitt approvals for EB2, only 21 NIW were chargeable to India (1.4%). Even I was surprised by how low the figure was when I just looked it up.

[abcx13]

abcx13,

As we might expect, given the Cut Off Dates, none of the EB2-I chargeable approvals this year are NIW.

Last year, of 1,470 Trackitt approvals for EB2, only 21 NIW were chargeable to India (1.4%). Even I was surprised by how low the figure was when I just looked it up.

The difference is amazing. Sportsfan is probably right that a lot of people would go for EB1A if possible, but then why won't the ROWs too? And the companies/universities have to be willing to file in EB1A/B and I'm not sure they would be. Large companies usually go the conservative route, and I think it would be EB2-NIW.

I've said this before, but without CIR I think EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I. There is no end in sight to the bottomless demand from India.

[Spectator]

The difference is amazing. Sportsfan is probably right that a lot of people would go for EB1A if possible, but then why won't the ROWs too? And the companies/universities have to be willing to file in EB1A/B and I'm not sure they would be. Large companies usually go the conservative route, and I think it would be EB2-NIW.

I've said this before, but without CIR I think EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I. There is no end in sight to the bottomless demand from India.

abcx13,

I was surprised it was quite so low, even though I expected it to be much lower than EB2-WW.

I agree with the reasons sportsfan has mentioned, but NIW still has some advantages to medical professionals and because it can be self sponsored.

EB1B won't be an option for many, since it is only for teaching and research and can not be self sponsored like NIW and EB1A.

I suspect that the job profile plays a significant part in the numbers. Indians are highly concentrated in IT professions, which probably do not lend themselves to NIW applications.

I also wonder if part of the difference is due to different age profiles between India and WW applicants.

I've never seen that broken down by Country, but I suspect India has a higher proportion of younger immigrants, since many either seek to be educated in the US and remain, or come here immediately after their education in India.

That may not be true for large parts of WW, where many only arrive here at a later age, having already established a career. That would put them in a better position to claim NIW (or EB1A/B). To a certain extent, the relative numbers of EB1, EB2, EB3 approvals bears this out.

I'm sure the answer is multi-factored.

Even if not self sponsored, NIW has the advantageous that it saves any employer the not inconsiderable PERM costs, as well as potentially shortening the overall process considerably.

[Spectator]

"Analysis" of Information about FY2012 Visa Usage and a "Guess" about Category Numbers

Firstly, sorry for such a long post, but I did want to lay out my logic for scrutiny and so people could understand why I have reached certain conclusions. Please do not quote it in full if you wish to reply.

Since some of the information it is based on is questionable, it is presented, as Ancient Aliens woulds say, on a :

WHAT IF IT WERE TRUE?

basis.

A total of 144,951 visas were available to EB in FY2012. By Category, that equates to:

EB1 – 41,456
EB2 – 41,456
EB3 – 41,456
EB4 – 10,291
EB5 – 10,292

7% equates to 2,902 for EB1-EB3 and 720 for EB4-EB5.

So far, only one number is generally available – EB5 used 7,641 visas and contributed 2,651 to spillover.

Everything else has to be conjecture from disparate sources of information.


EB1

We know that it has been reported that EB1 usage was very high at the end of FY2012 and was approaching the limit.

From a meeting with Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on October 24, 2012 in Washington DC and reported by Murthy:

In FY11, demand for EB1 numbers dropped by more than 25,000. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) expected a similar pattern in FY12, and advised the DOS accordingly. This led the DOS to expect 12,000 to 15,000 excess EB1 numbers, which the DOS factored in when they advanced the EB2 India and China cutoff dates rapidly in FY12. The excess numbers did not materialize, due to an upswing in EB1 demand in FY12.

In fact, numbers dropped "to" 25k, not "by more than" 25k. I mention this because the generally rather loose language used in the Murthy article is a concern.

And comments Charles Openheim made to Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee in a conversation on August 30, 2012:

Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high.
…..
The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000).
…..
The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.

EB2 China and India

In a conversation with Alan Lee on February 23, 2012:

Charles Oppenheim confirmed that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year; and that he had approximately 25,000 left to distribute.

That figure can be considered a high number, since it was before the up swell in demand for both EB1 and EB5.

The only article that mentions EB2-IC numbers for FY2012, is a Murthy article dated November 2, 2012.

This is the single most important number!

Unfortunately, it is also the most unreliable!

If it is incorrect, all calculations are also incorrect. Please bear this in mind.

It seems unreliable for a number of reasons:

The meeting was with Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on October 24, 2012 in Washington DC. An outline follows, which shares Mr. Oppenheim's expectations and analysis for all employment-based (EB) categories for FY13.

Despite the fact that others were in attendance at this meeting, I have been unable to find a single other reference to the EB2-IC number for FY2012. This seems a little strange, given the anticipation for this information.

The article actually says:

In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China.

(my highlighting)

It is an impossibility for China to have received the same number as India. They could not "each" have received 19k i.e. 38k total SOFAD. Additionally, there were just not enough spare visas available for this to be the case.

It is far more likely that the “each” is superfluous and it means that EB2-IC received 19k between them.

Another construction would be that India received 19k. In that case, China would have received about 5.5k visas for a total SOFAD of 24.5k.

Further discussion in the article about numbers for FY2013 suggests that the FY2012 number is referring to 19k SOFAD for EB2-IC.

Both possibilities will be discussed.


EB4

In all likelihood, the withdrawal of Concurrent filing for Religious Workers part way through FY2011, led to a situation where there were insufficient cases ready to be adjudicated in FY2011. As a result EB2-IC benefited from several thousand extra spillover visas. By FY2012, that would have worked through the system and EB4 could be expected to return to the full usage seen in FY2009 and FY2010.

It is possible EB4 contributed some spillover, but they also had a backlog of I-485 cases that normally would have been submitted in FY2011 and were delayed to FY2012 to deal with. FY2011 had less than 12 months cases, resulting in FY2012 having more than 12 months cases to be adjudicated.


EB5

Fairly reliable information says that EB5 used 7,641 visas and contributed 2,651 visas to spillover.


Pulling the Numbers Together

IF EB2-IC SOFAD = 19k

If EB2-IC SOFAD was 19k and 7% equals 2.9k, then spillover to EB2-IC is 19.0 – (2.9*2) = 13.2k

If EB5 contributed 2.7k, then EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 must have contributed 13.2 – 2.7 = 10.5k.

If EB2-WW contributed 6-8k towards that number, then the Fall Down from EB1/EB4 must be 2.5 – 4.5k. Using the lower figure of 2.5k then:

EB1 usage must therefore be 41.5 – 2.5 = 39k ± 1-2k.

Total Fall Down to EB2 is 2.7k (EB5) + 2.5 (EB1/EB4) = 5.2k

EB2 Total Visas becomes 41.5 + 5.2 = 46.7k

EB2-WW usage becomes 46.7 – 19.0 = 27.7k

Higher Fall Down from EB1 only results in EB2-WW numbers increasing, as the EB2-IC figure is a fixed point.


IF EB2-IC SOFAD = 24.5k

If EB2-IC SOFAD was 24.5k and 7% equals 2.9k, then spillover to EB2-IC is 24.5 – (2.9*2) = 18.7k

If EB5 contributed 2.7k, then EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 must have contributed 18.7 – 2.7 = 16.0k.

If EB2-WW contributed 6-8k towards that number, then the Fall Down from EB1/EB4 must be 8 – 10k. Using the lower figure of 8k then:

EB1 usage must therefore be 41.5 – 8.0 = 33.5k ± 1-2k.

Total Fall Down to EB2 is 2.7k (EB5) + 8.0 (EB1/EB4) = 10.7k

EB2 Total Visas becomes 41.5 + 10.7 = 52.2k

EB2-WW usage becomes 52.2 – 24.5 = 27.7k

Higher Fall Down from EB1 only results in EB2-WW numbers increasing, as the EB2-IC figure is a fixed point.

The problem with this interpretation is that:

1. The total number of EB2 visas is 52.2k. That is close to the maximum of 55k Charles Oppenheim thought available in February 2012 and which undoubtedly reduced due to increased usage in EB5 and EB1.
   
   
2. The other problem is that the EB1 total is lower than the later information suggested it would be.

This could be solved if EB4 contributed significant visa numbers. This seems unlikely since it would result in fewer approvals than in FY2011, when withdrawal of Concurrent Filing for Religious Workers probably caused a temporary shortage of cases to adjudicate.

It could also be solved if EB2-WW approvals were significantly lower and therefore contributed the majority of the spillover i.e. 11.5-13.5k spillover. However, this would be inconsistent with the number of Trackitt Approvals seen and there would have been no need to retrogress EB2-WW if that had been the case.

On balance, personally, I have to favour the Murthy Article meaning a total SOFAD of 19k for EB2-IC.


Finally, I cannot stress enough how much this "analysis" relies on the Murthy article. If the information in it is incorrect, then the basis for all the calculations is too.

Please read the above with that in mind.

I really hope we will see a return to the Visa Statistics being published in January. I, for one, do not think I can stand to wait until August again.

[justvisiting]

ROWers don't go for EB1A because they don't have to. I would be very surprised to find anyone in EB1A from ROW. They can straight away go to EB2-NIW. They are always current. For them, EB2 is easier, and it takes almost the same time.

EB1B has to be filed by the company. I am not familiar with the process, but I assume that people in EB1B have to have high credentials. I contend that some of these people will straight away go to NIW. Why? Because it is current!!! Why not just take a chance instead of waiting for your University/research institute's HR to finally push your papers through?

EB2 being crowded for India has the dual effect of many EB1-I applications and less EB2-I-NIW applications. If I was in ROW, I would have taken a chance in NIW some time back. I have about 15 publications (300+ citations), won an award for best paper, got my name in 3 different RFCs, filed a patent, and I can probably contend my work is in national interest. Because of my visa situation, I had to forgo many opportunities in defense. However I did not bother with NIW because it yields no advantage to me for my wait time, and EB1A was not possible for my qualifications. I can believe there are several others who did not take the NIW route.

I know folks from Germany and South America who have applied for BOTH EB1-A and NIW. The reason? NIW is subjective. The famous NYDOT decision can be applied arbitrarily by USCIS. EB1-A is more clear cut. So often lawyers advise to send both.

[justvisiting]

Excellent analysis Spec. It goes along with my general estimate of "normal" EB2-WW usage being about 32K, and that about 8K were "borrowed" by EB2-I/C in 2012. Of coursel, the problem is that those "borrowed" numbers need to be payed this year...

[tendlya]

Me and my wife have Indian Passport and our daughter is USA born and has valid USA passport along with PIO card. We are travelling to India this week. Do we need any other document for my daughter to travel to India? Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

[codesmith]

Me and my wife have Indian Passport and our daughter is USA born and has valid USA passport along with PIO card. We are travelling to India this week. Do we need any other document for my daughter to travel to India? Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

No, you don't need to carry any other docs for your daughter. PIO card is sufficient along with yours and her passport. Have a safe and happy journey.

[tendlya]

Thanks codesmith!

[tatikonda]

Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants in the Family-sponsored and
Employment-based preferences Registered at the National Visa Center
as of November 1, 2012

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf


Thank you
Tatikonda.

[tatikonda]

Someone in Trackitt had posted 2012 VB, which caused some confusion. please do not bring it to here..



Thank you
Tatikonda.[/QUOTE]