EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Jun1308]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

[vizcard]

SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

You are giving CO a lot of credit

what I mean by 2.5k is that there are these porting cases that were previously "invisible" to CO that are just a "flip the switch" exercise the moment the dates got current.

[qesehmk]

You are giving CO a lot of credit

LoL! You could be right.

[Jagan01]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

[vizcard]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I've always questioned the legality of "internal retrogression". Perhaps Kanmani (if she's around) or Pedro can comment on that.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

[vizcard]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

Spec has data from FY 2008 onwards in the Facts and Data section of the forum

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

thanks,viz. So, based on the average spillover it looks like dates are likely to move/stop around may/june '09 for FY '14. Comments?

[Jagan01]

thanks,viz. So, based on the average spillover it looks like dates are likely to move/stop around may/june '09 for FY '14. Comments?

Tried going through the posts where we had a discussion of this in the past but could not fiind them. I think Spec had put out prediction and as far as I remember it was like
Apr/May 2009 - Optimistic
Mar 2009 - Realistic
Jan 2009 - If many people who are current are left behind. (Looking at current trends, not many will be left behind)

I might be wring but it would be best to find those posts.

[Jagan01]

Already 333 approvals for Sept 2013 in Trackitt. They are doing pretty good and clearing cases at a rapid rate. By the end of this week (2nd week of Sep) we might see 400 approvals.

Aug approvals --> 566
Aug new applicants --> 137
Sep approvals --> 333
Sep new applicants --> 42

Total approvals --> 899
Total new applications --> 179

It is good to see that lesser porting applications filed in September compared to Aug. Trend until now shows that for every 100 approvals there are 20 new applicants. Scaling this to the scenario where we are expecting around 18k approvals, we might see 3k pending porting demand when the next inventory is published. Let us assume that 1k are left behind, then it will be 4k pending before June 2008. Add to it the known inventory from June 2008 onwards and you can see approx 8k until Jan 2009.

Thus before Jan 2009 we would have 8k+4k = 12k pending.
Thus before Feb 2009 we would have 8k+5.3k = 13.3k pending.
Thus before Mar 2009 we would have 8k+6.6k = 14.6k pending.

I believe with lower FB spillover, it would be difficult to get more than 15k for EB2I. Hence, I would say FY14 would most likely be at Mar 2009.

[Pedro Gonzales]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I believe the only precedent for internal retrogression was in Mar '12 and that had to do with usage of nearly all EB2 visa numbers for the entire year. I don't think there is any justification for internal retrogression at the beginning of the year. The USCIS can issue 27% of all EB2 visa numbers in Q1 and it can give them all to EB2I if there is demand, and there is no month by month restriction, so technically, the USCIS shouldn't stop issuing visa numbers to EB2I until the dates retrogress at Oct end. I think everybody other than first time I485 applicants or people stuck with new RFEs will get approved in October. Many first time I485 applicants will get their green cards too but there can be no guarantee of that.

Basically CO has inadvertently authorized QSP without knowing how much it will be. I think he is betting that the demand not satisfied by FY2013 spill over will be < 3K and can be satisfied with the EB2I FY2014 supply. The USCIS can apply that without worrying about the quarterly limits. Of course there will be significant retrogression come Nov 1, 2013 to wherever EB3I is, so that no further porting will be possible until the spill over is known in summer 2014.

[Jagan01]

I believe the only precedent for internal retrogression was in Mar '12 and that had to do with usage of newarly all EB2 visa numbers for the entire year. I don't think there is any justification for internal retrogression at the begining of the year. The USCIS can issue 27% of all EB2 visa numbers in Q1 and it can give them all to EB2I if there is demand, and there is no month by month restriction, so technically, the USCIS sholdn't stop issuing visa numbers to EB2I until the dates retrogress at Oct end. I think everybody other than first time I485 applicants or people stuck with new RFEs will get approved in October. Many first time I485 applicants will get their green cards too but there can be no guarantee of that.

Basically CO has inadvertently authorized QSP without knowing how much it will be. I think he is betting that the demand not satisfied by FY2013 spill over will be < 3K and can be satisfied with the EB2I FY2014 supply. The USCIS can apply that without worrying about the quarterly limits. Of course there will be significant retrogression come Nov 1, 2013 to wherever EB3I is, so that no further porting will be possible until the spill over is known in summer 2014.

The

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

[vizcard]

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

It'll be 3-4 months. You will start to see those in the December demand data. I doubt any (or maybe very very few) will get approved befores dates retrogress.

[ashirolkar]

I am getting worried now. Even though my PD is March2008, my RD is in April 2012 and Texas is clearly approving based on RD in near chronological order. Only exception where it is approving cases with really late RDs (April, May 2012) is for cases with really old PDs. I am not so sure they will reach my RD before the visas run out this month. FYI, I got the mass RFE. Gurus - any thoughts? Mera number kab aayega?

Pedro's post above is giving me some hope though.

[Jagan01]

It'll be 3-4 months. You will start to see those in the December demand data. I doubt any (or maybe very very few) will get approved befores dates retrogress.

3 months from Aug 1 will end on Nov 1. The dates won't retrogress until Dec 2013. Thus there might be a small window of 10 days. If QSP is applied then I do not see why it might be very very few.

We have so far completely ignored the people applying for first time from the equation.

[rosharma]

I do believe few of the lucky first timers (Most probably the ones who filled I-485 in August) will get their GCs. I do not have any proof to back my argument but I know for sure in 2012 COD frenzy lot of first timers did get their 485 approved.

P.S. Do we have any first timer cases from Trackitt which have got their 485 approved yet?

[vizcard]

3 months from Aug 1 will end on Nov 1. The dates won't retrogress until Dec 2013. Thus there might be a small window of 10 days. If QSP is applied then I do not see why it might be very very few.

We have so far completely ignored the people applying for first time from the equation.

I'm not sure how you can definitively say dates won't retrogress until Dec. Maybe you know something that I don't.

Also, USCIS stated processing time for 485s is 4 months. Many first timers got their GC in 2011 because USCIS didn't have any backlog to work on. This time around they have tons of backlog to clear in August and Sept.

Finally I dont think anyone has ignored first timers from any equation. They were always accounted for in FY14 calculations. Porting will always continue but the difference is that those first timers will show up in demand data now rather than be invisible.

[sk911911]

Apologies for posting here. Like many immigrant hopefuls, I am a daily reader of this forum. I finally received my Card Production email today. My PD is 17MAR08.

I sincerely thank all the gurus, pandits and every one else contributing the analysis here - Spec, Q,Veni, Ted,...,Matt, Indiani. The analysis indeed helped me in my plans.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

[qesehmk]

Congratulations SK. Best wishes for future. If you can - do keep visiting and helping others.

Apologies for posting here. Like many immigrant hopefuls, I am a daily reader of this forum. I finally received my Card Production email today. My PD is 17MAR08.

I sincerely thank all the gurus, pandits and every one else contributing the analysis here - Spec, Q,Veni, Ted,...,Matt, Indiani. The analysis indeed helped me in my plans.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

[gc_soon]

Congrats SK. Enjoy the green.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

Same with me. I was the first to clarify to Spec's statement on unused FB visas in DOS visa statistics where he mentioned there was a possibility of spillover and was eagerly waiting for his reply to confirm which he did. That was the last hope for me that I would be current in FY2013.

[aary09]

Guys,
Finally received my AOS email today.
My utmost and humblest thanks to all the gurus who helped me to understand and navigate through this process. Q You were one of them sticking to the guns when even data was not at your side.

With many thanks
Aary
PD 05/07/08
NO RFE's
erequest on 9/6 ( after reading one of the posts in q immi)
AOS email 09/13

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations ... aary09. Happy friday and a gr8 weekend ahead.

Guys,
Finally received my AOS email today.
My utmost and humblest thanks to all the gurus who helped me to understand and navigate through this process. Q You were one of them sticking to the guns when even data was not at your side.

With many thanks
Aary
PD 05/07/08
NO RFE's
erequest on 9/6 ( after reading one of the posts in q immi)
AOS email 09/13

[vizcard]

Just wondering if it's time already for the 2014 thread. I know there hasn't been much data lately but it will still be nice to let all people post their initial predictions based upon the information we have.

I believe Q mentioned that he would keep this thread on as 2014 and move all 2013 posts to a different new thread. Idea is so members' bookmarks wouldn't get messed up. Q thinking ahead as usual.

[qesehmk]

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

[IJune05]

As always, thank you Q

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q