EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[PrinceVA]

This movement is beyond expectation. Is this repeatation of 2011/12 and will see PD moved back to 2005/6 ?? Dont wanna miss the boat again.. already did in 2007 and 2011. Waiting.

[Jagan01]

Thanks sports and everyone else. I have rounded up 2 of my colleagues and we're going out for a beer. I can get back to work tomorrow with all of this behind me. Of course, starting Sep 3rd, I'll be glued to my phone waiting for the SMS before they run out of visa numbers for the year.

Chinese would be confused....

EB2 China --> Aug08
EB3 China --> Jul10

The Chinese would be saying "Why the hell did I do my Masters". USA wants less literate Chinese people according to this bulletin.

[garihc27]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

[venkat]

Thanks Sports..Lets hope for the best...

If there is no immediate retrogression, there is a chance your PD will be current in October.

[garihc27]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

[infoseek]

Congratualtions to all! Hope it continues the pace.

[venkat]

Thanks Q...You mentioned that their might be a possible temporary movement next month...Does it mean I have a chance to get GC in October...?
I know the reality is going to be sometime after June 2014 but just wanted to make sure I understood correctly..



If there is any forward movement at all between Oct and Dec - it will be temporary. So more than likely Jun 2014 onwards is when you should realistically expect a GC. just putting this out so that you can plan life/career around it. As you know my guess is as good as yours. So take it with a pinch of salt. Just trying to help here.[/QUOTE]

[PrinceVA]

This movement is beyond expectation. Is this repeatation of 2011/12 and will see PD moved back to 2005/6 ?? Dont wanna miss the boat again.. already did in 2007 and 2011. Waiting.

[Spectator]

Also notice the expected few hundred extra EB visas.

E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 25th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2013 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2013 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 158,466

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2013 the per-country limit is 26,913. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,689.

[pdmay2008]

Trackitt is down for more than an hour now. Thought of sharing happiness with other friends in Trackitt. I think most of the trackitt members are here as well.

[erikbond101]

yay...finally it moved...congratulations to all

[Sirisha]

Hi,

I got full time offer and I waited for the bulletin to get released for accepting the offer.

I am in crucial stage, I am expecting my baby in November and my current employer is saying I can't take more than two months leave
and my current contract will expire this August. I can't apply for new jobs now because of my pregnancy.

Now as the bulletin is out and my dates are not current. I am ready to take the offer.

My new employer said, he'll file for AC21.Before that if my current employer revokes my application, how I've to handle the situation?
Can you please suggest how to proceed further?

Thanks,

[seattlet]

Chinese would be confused....

EB2 China --> Aug08
EB3 China --> Jul10

The Chinese would be saying "Why the hell did I do my Masters". USA wants less literate Chinese people according to this bulletin.

Very true. I think current policy is stupid, they should rewrite the law to ensure cut off dates for EB1 > EB2 > EB3

Chinese folks should just port their EB2 to EB3 (reverse porting).

[qesehmk]

It all depends on how efficiently and in totality they are able to address the cases that are current in EB2I. If they do, then obviously the monthly 286 or limit for EB2I to be utilized will require some forward movement. In reality it is possible that EB2I leaves more than 3K unadjudicated with PDs prior to Jun 15 2008, in that case there definitely won't be a forward movement. Today we don't know how well and upto what extend the backlog will be cleared upto Jun 15 2008.

Thanks Q...You mentioned that their might be a possible temporary movement next month...Does it mean I have a chance to get GC in October...?
I know the reality is going to be sometime after June 2014 but just wanted to make sure I understood correctly..

[kd2008]

Very true. I think current policy is stupid, they should rewrite the law to ensure cut off dates for EB1 > EB2 > EB3

Chinese folks should just port their EB2 to EB3 (reverse porting).

Technically, the EB2-C folks who have not filed their I-485 will definitely reverse port. They will file an amended I-140 (moving from EB2 to EB3) and I-485 concurrently and make themselves eligible for EAD/AP.

And I am not kidding. This will happen. Esp. for EB2-C folks from 1 May 2010 to 1 Jul 2010 who have never filed an I-485.

[civilengineer]

Missed by 4 days (June 19). I did not have high hopes to start with, so not too disappointed. I am glad that my prediction that I won't be current came true.
Good to know there is still a sliver of hope for future bulletins this year, albeit minimal.
One thing I did not get is why helooo thinks he missed by a day. His profile says his date is May 16. Is that a typo? Is he actually June 16?

[ramya76]

Good news & Good luck to all who are current in this bulletin including me.

Gurus, I am current in this bulletin & my PD is 02/08/13. I just checked my status in USCIS website, it is showing as 'Request for Evidence Response Review'. Is there any chance am I going to get GreenCard sooner? If yes, how soon I can expect. Thanks

[sandyn16]

EB3 India has progressed to Sep 22, 03? Is there a chance of retrogressing in FY 2014?

[pdmay2008]

One more thing to note is EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is reducing. This is definitely good news for FY2014 spillover. I expect it will clear out whole 2009 next year, CO has to open gates again for more demand. I wish good luck to all EB2I.

[Jagan01]

It is somewhat guaranteed by the current policy in that the spillover rules allow vertical falldown.

I think the assumption was the demand(EB1) < demand(EB2) < demand(EB3). This has been true historically, but EB2/3 China reveals an anomaly.

Because of this anomaly, you already have anecdotal evidence that the US doesn't really treat EB1 as *greater than* EB2 and EB2 as *greater than* EB3. The US just treats them as separate categories in some sense. If they did not, they should have automatically ported EB2-C cases and made sure that PD violation did not occur.

So where is the new page for FY2014 predictions ?

Gurus,
Please update your predictions for FY2014. Assuming that the same downtrend in EB1I and EB2WW continues would it be appropriate to think that we move on to Feb 2009 by the end of next fiscal year.

[desitiger]

Cannot thank god enough !!

[qesehmk]

Not reducing - he says - there was less than expected demand in last 2 months. IMHO that could be just white noise. As per next year ... think about it ... there won't be 18K FB visas.. so that cuts a lot of movement right there. Everything else being equal - next year could be extremely tight i.e. 6 months of less movement. Don't mean to scare ... but just saying that at this moment it's all hazy. We will know more as we understand the exact level of SOFAD this year and consumption of EB1 and EB2ROw.

One more thing to note is EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is reducing. This is definitely good news for FY2014 spillover. I expect it will clear out whole 2009 next year, CO has to open gates again for more demand. I wish good luck to all EB2I.

[venkat]

Thanks once again Q. I completely understand now

It all depends on how efficiently and in totality they are able to address the cases that are current in EB2I. If they do, then obviously the monthly 286 or limit for EB2I to be utilized will require some forward movement. In reality it is possible that EB2I leaves more than 3K unadjudicated with PDs prior to Jun 15 2008, in that case there definitely won't be a forward movement. Today we don't know how well and upto what extend the backlog will be cleared upto Jun 15 2008.

[civilengineer]

I think the rule of thumb for EB2I of PD+5 years is not valid any more. It is more like 6-7 years now. The first page can be updated as such on this thread or new threads.

[Spectator]

Spec - we wouldn't know that until the DHS annual report is published for 2013.

CO pretty much says so himself.

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

He previously said (in the July VB)

Worldwide:

No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

Even then, he was admitting that the later movement was unlikely to translate into demand, since 5 months would be in the new FY.


Had he moved the Dates earlier and then moved them further (as I was surprised he didn't - see my previous posts), then he would not be in a position of having so little demand for ROW/C/M that he would feel the need to move EB3-I forward by 8 months.

That covers as many as 6.9k AOS visas according to the latest USCIS Inventory. We all know that is not a correct figure, since a large number of porters need to be removed from that gross figure. However, it represents at least a year's extra movement due to CO's improper movement of other Countries within EB3 (whether deliberate or not).

Since I forecast that would be the result of the late movement and the failure to keep moving dates forward, I feel perfectly justified in complaining about it, since it was a very obvious danger.

He should have moved the dates earlier and further, then retrogressed towards the end of the year if necessary - and I don't say that in hindsight.

I'll wager that, when the DOS Visa Statistics are published (hopefully in January), EB3-ROW will once again fall far short of their notional allocation.