EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

Thanks KD ...

Here are my cursory observations:

1. EB1 overall backlog is 10K which is about 1/4th of annual demand and is a healthy backlog. So EB1 isn't going to give us huge surprise at the end of this FY in terms of how many visas it used.
2. EB2ROW shows 6.7K backlog which is less than I would've liked to see. So I would expect EB2ROW to use more visas than our original prediction. Our original was that they will utilize or exceed their quota ... so this doesn't bode well. (but remember there is 18K FB visas too ... so it may not turn out as bad).
3. EB4 and EB5 do not show significant inventory .... so I would expect them to not present any surprise relative to our forecast. So again .. no news is good news here.
4. EB2C shows 2.8K for 2009 which is a bad news for them because they are so near and yet so far from being current as a category.
5. EB2I shows an average of 12.5K demand in 2008 and 2009 which is a very very good news for them because it is certainly less than prior years when the demand was 16-18K. This impact wait times for EB2I positively. But as all of you are aware the wait times is a function of so many moving parts. So can't say by how much.

So that's the gist of 485 data IMHO. Please feel free to criticize or ask questions!

New I-485 Pending Inventory as of 7/17/2013. I don't if this was discussed already.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...07-17-2013.pdf

I don't know how useful this is.

EB2-ROW drops to 7.7K in this compared to 10.2K in April 2013.

EB3-ROW goes up from 7.3K to 9.9K. But hardly any additions post-Aug-2007

[yank]

Q,

Is it going to change your prediction for Sep bulletin? Please reply.

Thanks KD ...

Here are my cursory observations:

1. EB1 overall backlog is 10K which is about 1/4th of annual demand and is a healthy backlog. So EB1 isn't going to give us huge surprise at the end of this FY in terms of how many visas it used.
2. EB2ROW shows 6.7K backlog which is less than I would've liked to see. So I would expect EB2ROW to use more visas than our original prediction. Our original was that they will utilize or exceed their quota ... so this doesn't bode well. (but remember there is 18K FB visas too ... so it may not turn out as bad).
3. EB4 and EB5 do not show significant inventory .... so I would expect them to not present any surprise relative to our forecast. So again .. no news is good news here.
4. EB2C shows 2.8K for 2009 which is a bad news for them because they are so near and yet so far from being current as a category.
5. EB2I shows an average of 12.5K demand in 2008 and 2009 which is a very very good news for them because it is certainly less than prior years when the demand was 16-18K. This impact wait times for EB2I positively. But as all of you are aware the wait times is a function of so many moving parts. So can't say by how much.

So that's the gist of 485 data IMHO. Please feel free to criticize or ask questions!

[qesehmk]

Nothing material that would force me to rethink anything. So I would keep the prediction same.

Q,

Is it going to change your prediction for Sep bulletin? Please reply.

[wolverine82]

Q,Spec,Matt and other gurus...do you think this I-485 inventory will change your predictions..

Q,

Is it going to change your prediction for Sep bulletin? Please reply.

[Spectator]

Q,Spec,Matt and other gurus...do you think this I-485 inventory will change your predictions..

wolverine,

The USCIS Inventory Data doesn't really add to the information about EB1, EB2-WW or porting numbers, so I have no reason to change my thoughts either.

[vizcard]

as usual some of the numbers are off. Comparing the June DD vs this Inventory, there is more demand than inventory for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I.

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16125 ----17725
2009 - 14146 ----16550

Given that dates were retrogressed even the fact that the Demand data is one month older than the Inventory shouldn't matter.

[natvyas]

Q, Spec, Matt, Viz

We knew the EB2 ROW started the year with about 8K in backlog which was going to be added to this years demand. However on comparing the Inventory report starting from Oct 2012, I see that the report has on an average carried 5K in backlog for 2012. This tells me that 5K of the backlog will not impact this year but carry forward to next year.

Thoughts?

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

That's what happens in every category .... about 1/3rd of annual demand for all current categories can't get approved because of the processing time of 4 months.

If the processing time was 1 month then you would only see 1/12th of annual demand in backlog.

Does that make sense and does that answer your question?

Q, Spec, Matt, Viz

We knew the EB2 ROW started the year with about 8K in backlog which was going to be added to this years demand. However on comparing the Inventory report starting from Oct 2012, I see that the report has on an average carried 5K in backlog for 2012. This tells me that 5K of the backlog will not impact this year but carry forward to next year.

Thoughts?

Regards
Nat

[justvisiting]

as usual some of the numbers are off. Comparing the June DD vs this Inventory, there is more demand than inventory for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I.

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16125 ----17725
2009 - 14146 ----16550

Given that dates were retrogressed even the fact that the Demand data is one month older than the Inventory shouldn't matter.

Doesn't demand data also include consular processing?

[vizcard]

Doesn't demand data also include consular processing?

perhaps.. i'm not quite sure what that workflow is like. In CP they do not fully process an application until the dates are current ie they don't pre-adjudicate. Also, they actually use a visa directly as soon as the dates become current regardless of the result of the interview.

Maybe Kanmani, Q or Spec can provide a perspective here. I'm also sure we've had this conversation before :P

[Spectator]

perhaps.. i'm not quite sure what that workflow is like. In CP they do not fully process an application until the dates are current ie they don't pre-adjudicate. Also, they actually use a visa directly as soon as the dates become current regardless of the result of the interview.

Maybe Kanmani, Q or Spec can provide a perspective here. I'm also sure we've had this conversation before :P

Documentarily Qualified CP cases are included in the Demand Data.

We had a good discussion about the definition of Documentarily Qualified, although I haven't revisited it and this is from memory.

I think we agreed that was when what used to be called Packet 4 has been submitted and accepted by NVC. That is quite late in the CP process. When the date becomes Current, a visa is allocated for the case at the Consulate and NVC/Consulate advise the applicant of the interview date.

Kanmani probably has a better grip on the fine detail.

For EB2-I the numbers of CP cases are extremely small. Last year, FY2012, when EB2-I received 19,726 approvals, only 140 were Consular Processed (0.71%). In FY2011 the numbers were 23,997 and 133 (0.51%) respectively.

For EB2-I calculation purposes, you can probably ignore the CP component.

[Spectator]

as usual some of the numbers are off. Comparing the June DD vs this Inventory, there is more demand than inventory for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I.

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16125 ----17725
2009 - 14146 ----16550

Given that dates were retrogressed even the fact that the Demand data is one month older than the Inventory shouldn't matter.

The nearest DD to the Inventory Date of July 17, 2013 would be the last one published as of June 7, 2013.

The comparison then was

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16,125 ----16,150
2009 - 14,146 ----13,850

The agreement isn't to bad IMO.

[natvyas]

That's what happens in every category .... about 1/3rd of annual demand for all current categories can't get approved because of the processing time of 4 months.

If the processing time was 1 month then you would only see 1/12th of annual demand in backlog.

Does that make sense and does that answer your question?

Q

I think the FA from EB2ROW depends on 3 parameters:

1) Rate of processing of applications
2) Demand
3) Supply

We know that the supply is more compared to last year owing to the visa from FB.
The inventory data tells me that the rate of processing is the similar to last year assuming the demand is similar.

Now on the subject of demand, I think we know in the past several years EB2ROW demand has stayed consistent.

Hence the conclusion I draw is that based on the fact that the supply is more and other parameters are similar, the FA should be more.

Comments?

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

Natvyas your thought about overall EB2ROW FA is correct but i wouldn't link this 485 data point to the overall forecast the way you have done it.

I would tend to look at my own forecast and say is there anything in the 485 data that causes me to change my thinking?

In this particulra case as I said - EB2ROW backlog is less than what I would've liked to see implying faster approvals. That in turn could mean more demand in EB2ROW. So that's why I thought i was a slight bad news.

Q

I think the FA from EB2ROW depends on 3 parameters:

1) Rate of processing of applications
2) Demand
3) Supply

We know that the supply is more compared to last year owing to the visa from FB.
The inventory data tells me that the rate of processing is the similar to last year assuming the demand is similar.

Now on the subject of demand, I think we know in the past several years EB2ROW demand has stayed consistent.

Hence the conclusion I draw is that based on the fact that the supply is more and other parameters are similar, the FA should be more.

Comments?

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Q

I think the FA from EB2ROW depends on 3 parameters:

1) Rate of processing of applications
2) Demand
3) Supply

We know that the supply is more compared to last year owing to the visa from FB.
The inventory data tells me that the rate of processing is the similar to last year assuming the demand is similar.

Now on the subject of demand, I think we know in the past several years EB2ROW demand has stayed consistent.

Hence the conclusion I draw is that based on the fact that the supply is more and other parameters are similar, the FA should be more.

Comments?

Regards
Nat

Nat,

What you say would have been true in a normal year.

But last year, EB2-I were over-allocated visas, which caused EB2-WW to retrogress.

So this year, demand is (normal demand + demand from retrogressed months).

The general consensus is that the increased allocation to EB2-WW including FB visas will balance the actual demand this year, so that EB2-WW will give little or no Fall Across this FY.

[uscisnightmare]

Gurus ,

Any idea where eb2i would be in October 2014 ?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Digressing from the topic under discussion, will we 've a '2014 Predictions' page going forward?

[willywonka]

Yes we will but sadly we will not have predictions from Q.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...t-2013-Onwards

[qesehmk]

Thanks willywonka. I am sure there will be predictions from others. I will contribute analysis but refrain from predicting.
As it is today Spec Matt Viz Indiani are already providing predictions not to mention Nishant Teddy Veni who occasionally chip in.

Digressing from the topic under discussion, will we 've a '2014 Predictions' page going forward?

[Spectator]

Not sure where to put this, but i will move it eventually.

We often hear what people think about their attorney.

I came across this which shows how Immigration attorneys feel about their job and clients sometimes.

The feelings are expressed as animated gifs.

Not all are applicable, but some are hilarious nonetheless. It's worth looking through all the pages.

I hope you enjoy.

[indiani]

Not sure where to put this, but i will move it eventually.

We often hear what people think about their attorney.

I came across this which shows how Immigration attorneys feel about their job and clients sometimes.

The feelings are expressed as animated gifs.

Not all are applicable, but some are hilarious nonetheless. It's worth looking through all the pages.

I hope you enjoy.

very entertaining !

[IJune05]

I can so clearly see my pinhead attorney in these gifs

Not sure where to put this, but i will move it eventually.

We often hear what people think about their attorney.

I came across this which shows how Immigration attorneys feel about their job and clients sometimes.

The feelings are expressed as animated gifs.

Not all are applicable, but some are hilarious nonetheless. It's worth looking through all the pages.

I hope you enjoy.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I've displayed relative calm for all these years that I've been following the visa bulletins, but today, I'm unable to concentrate on work at all, and have been incessantly checking the VB page and this forum for updates. I really need to find something else to distract me. Spec's tumblr link certainly helped.

[desitiger]

I've displayed relative calm for all these years that I've been following the visa bulletins, but today, I'm unable to concentrate on work at all, and have been incessantly checking the VB page and this forum for updates. I really need to find something else to distract me. Spec's tumblr link certainly helped.

Lol. I am pretty much doing the same but let me assure you that it is not coming out today. I am slowly accepting the fact that it might not come out tomorrow also.

[qesehmk]

I have rarely seen VB come out on Monday especially prior to 10th business day. I think wednesday is a certainty. tomorrow is a possibility.

Just a guess .. no insider info really!

Lol. I am pretty much doing the same but let me assure you that it is not coming out today. I am slowly accepting the fact that it might not come out tomorrow also.