EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[indiani]

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

3 enevelopes so that they can check everything needed for each , you can use one main fedex envelope. even if you send everything together as long as they are separately sorted out, that's fine

[pdmay2008]

One of the trackitt user is reporting RFE issued on his case today. His PD May 27th 2008.

Here is the content from ggreener:

Just got a text from USCIS saying my 485 application was updated. I logged in and it says Request for Evidence was mailed to me on July 30th. My PD is May 27th 2008 - EB2I.

I've changed jobs on my EAD and moved states (From California to Texas). Updated the address change form and received correspondence from USCIS to this address. But I never filed for AC21 or GXXX (to remove lawyer from representing me?).

Would the letter come to me or the law firm that filed for my 485 (working for my previous employer).

[natvyas]

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY on trackitt.

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

[seattlet]

maybe the slow PERM processing is finally showing its results. Currently PERM is only approved until end of january PD. Normally it would have been till end of may PD by this time.
to me it translates into roughly 15 K EB2 ROW PERMS on hold compared to regular processing timeline (assuming eb2 ROW consumes 36 K visas each year)

Folks who had got their PERM approved till end of April PD, could have got 140 approved in 15 days, and filed 485 by third week of may. There is a good chance they would
have got 485 approved by mid august or end of august ( 3 months) . My opinion is that this slow PERM processing though may not help Eb2 I to move significantly, has atleast ensured EB2 ROW didnt have a cut off date and consume all spill overs.

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

[Spectator]

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY on trackitt.

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

natvyas,

You will find the numbers for each month in this post.

The number to date in July for EB2-ROW primary applicants is 36, including NIW.

That is made up of:

EB2 ----------- 20
EB2-NIW ------- 11
EB2 Indian CC -- 3
Removed -------- 2

Total --------- 36

The average for EB2 in a normal year is about 48 per month.

Numbers to date in FY2013

Oct ---- 68
Nov --- 122
Dec ---- 44
Jan ---- 89
Feb ---- 75
Mar ---- 65
Apr ---- 61
May ---- 56
Jun ---- 47
Jul ---- 36

Total - 663

[coolvibe]

erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.




Lets cross fingers for April 2008 the realistic figure predicted by Matt

[Spectator]

maybe the slow PERM processing is finally showing its results. Currently PERM is only approved until end of january PD. Normally it would have been till end of may PD by this time.
to me it translates into roughly 15 K EB2 ROW PERMS on hold compared to regular processing timeline (assuming eb2 ROW consumes 36 K visas each year)

Folks who had got their PERM approved till end of April PD, could have got 140 approved in 15 days, and filed 485 by third week of may. There is a good chance they would
have got 485 approved by mid august or end of august ( 3 months) . My opinion is that this slow PERM processing though may not help Eb2 I to move significantly, has atleast ensured EB2 ROW didnt have a cut off date and consume all spill overs.

seattlet,

I agree that the PERM processing slowdown will limit EB2-WW approvals to somewhere around their allocation - it could have been worse than that.

The slowdown in PERM is partly offset by slightly faster USCIS processing times for I-485 this year.

The bad news is that, if PERM processing times improve after sequestration ends, EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 are likely to be slightly higher than a normal year which will squeeze SOFAD in FY2014.

In may ways it is a choice between jam today, or jam tomorrow - the numbers will be the same eventually, all other factors being equal.

Of 186 EB2-ROW Trackitt I-485 primary cases currently pending, 169 have a PD of 2012 or earlier, so there are still plenty left even without considering 2013 PDs. Of those, 115 have been pending at least 165 days (the mean approval time).

Currently 26 cases have been approved with a 2013 PD, 17 of which are NIW that do not require a PERM certification.

[bvsamrat]

IMHO- It is unlikey that there would be 6K porters that would be added to demand in the shortest available time, it would take atleast 1-2 months. I guess CO would ignore that number and if indeed materializes then could always retrogress later internally- Hence 'come September'

erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.




Lets cross fingers for April 2008 the realistic figure predicted by Matt

[natvyas]

Good luck !!! to all those who will be current starting tomorrow. Please keep us updated.

[seattlet]

Spec,
i agree with you. It is a choice of jam today or tomorrow for most folks. However for folks in PD 2007 it is a matter of getting GC this year or next (and because of PERM slowdown they might
be able to get it this year which would be a big difference to them). Similarly for first time filers in 2007 and early 2008 it might help them to get EAD this year vs next. That would also
make a big difference in their lives too. Agreed that dates would regrogress but this slowdown is preferable for EB2 I folks with 2007 and early 2008 PDs since without the slowdown EB2 I folks would have not got much this year and would have been waitin till May / Jun 2014 for any meaningful COD move.

seattlet,

I agree that the PERM processing slowdown will limit EB2-WW approvals to somewhere around their allocation - it could have been worse than that.

The slowdown in PERM is partly offset by slightly faster USCIS processing times for I-485 this year.

The bad news is that, if PERM processing times improve after sequestration ends, EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 are likely to be slightly higher than a normal year which will squeeze SOFAD in FY2014.

In may ways it is a choice between jam today, or jam tomorrow - the numbers will be the same eventually, all other factors being equal.

Of 186 EB2-ROW Trackitt I-485 primary cases currently pending, 169 have a PD of 2012 or earlier, so there are still plenty left even without considering 2013 PDs. Of those, 115 have been pending at least 165 days (the mean approval time).

Currently 26 cases have been approved with a 2013 PD, 17 of which are NIW that do not require a PERM certification.

[Spectator]

Spec,
i agree with you. It is a choice of jam today or tomorrow for most folks. However for folks in PD 2007 it is a matter of getting GC this year or next (and because of PERM slowdown they might
be able to get it this year which would be a big difference to them). Similarly for first time filers in 2007 and early 2008 it might help them to get EAD this year vs next. That would also
make a big difference in their lives too. Agreed that dates would regrogress but this slowdown is preferable for EB2 I folks with 2007 and early 2008 PDs since without the slowdown EB2 I folks would have not got much this year and would have been waitin till May / Jun 2014 for any meaningful COD move.

seattlet,

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about the bigger picture as you pointed out. Believe me, I am acutely aware of the difference a few thousand extra numbers can make to the COD movement this year.

I would be a "jam today" person as well under the circumstances and I wouldn't believe anyone who said otherwise.

Good luck with the upcoming September VB. I imagine you are sweating on it more than most if I read your PD correctly.

I look forward to a busy day tomorrow updating all the new approvals. I hope to see yours in September if you already have an I-485 pending.

[erikbond101]

if porting hits the lower range of expectations, together with the EB2ROW drops we are noticing in trackitt could help EB2I make a bigger jump. Another area where visa numbers are blocked is in EB2C's additional share of SO visas. if EB2C stalls where it is today even in next bulletin, EB2I will receive some more visas. That would possibly indicate, how spillovers are divided between retrogressed countries when cut off dates are different. My numbers have blocked EB2C with its share of additional SO, if I am not wrong Specs calculation also blocks it. Next bulletin may possibly be the first opportunity to understand DoS interpretation of SO rules in that regard.

There is a 3K difference(4K Vs. 7K) in porting assumptions+ 1-1.4 K blocking for EB2C is equivalent to support a 3+ months difference in calculation.

Spec: Thanks for updating the PERM data, it definitely helps in our early calculations for next fiscal.

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

[seattlet]

Spec,
thanks. I also hope that things get moving again so that apr 2008 will be current this month so as to file 485. I see it has 30 to 50 % probability to go there.

seattlet,

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about the bigger picture as you pointed out. Believe me, I am acutely aware of the difference a few thousand extra numbers can make to the COD movement this year.

I would be a "jam today" person as well under the circumstances and I wouldn't believe anyone who said otherwise.

Good luck with the upcoming September VB. I imagine you are sweating on it more than most if I read your PD correctly.

I look forward to a busy day tomorrow updating all the new approvals. I hope to see yours in September if you already have an I-485 pending.

[MATT2012]

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

Erikbond,

When EB2 China and India share the same PD, the visas are allocated based on earliest PD. As EB2I have more cases, the % allocation to EB2I is higher. Also for FY2009 we don't have any data to analyze the date movements, as first inventory was published only towards end of FY2009. This fiscal year, EB2C and EB2I are both retrogressed countries. The literal interpretation of law is SOs can be allocated to retrogressed countries without the 7% consideration. In the current scenario, I have not found anything that stops allocation to EB2C, as both India and China are oversubscribed.

As the interpretation of the law is not 100% clear, I was little cautious in my calculation. You could see same level of conservativeness in my porting number calculation. We may know DoS interpretation in the next bulletin, based on EB2C's movement. Perhaps we may have to wait until Visa Statistics release sometime in next FY, to fully understand the interpretation.

I would love to see EB2I movement beyond my realistic calculation. I have fairly reasonable numbers to support a higher movement, though I don't put it out. I am sure majority of the individuals who calculate here, have spreadsheets full of different combinations. Being mentioned that, risks get much higher once we cross April 1st,2008. I hate to say this, but even at this late stage in this fiscal, EB1 consumption is a difficult call.

Even my internal best case scenario, will not come close to current EB2C cut off date.

Hope for the best.

Cheers!!

Matt

[Spectator]

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

erikbond101,

A slight correction. It is 7% of any Fall Down, not 7% of Spillover, since any Fall Across within EB2 does not increase the EB2 allocation.

It is true that EB2-C failed to receive the full 7% on that basis in FY2009, but the shortfall was only 89 visas (3,045 vs 3,134).

That is well within the error margin inherent in the visa allocation process.

In all other years, EB2-IC were sharing spillover and both Countries exceeded the 7% limit comfortably anyway.

To put it into perspective, EB2-IC combined has received more visas than spillover was available in every year from FY2009 onwards (5k in total). Last year it was more than 1.6k. EB3 has had to under consume for the numbers to stay within the overall EB allocation. In FY2009, the overall EB limit was exceeded by nearly 1k. I think that says something about the madhouse that the month where visas run out is. Clearly, DOS can not react quickly enough to impose internal retrogression.

At best, I think we can only say there is no definitive proof either way. One way or another, we shall find out his FY, unless EB2-I matches the EB2-C Cut Off Date.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

I have a question about Fall Across Vs Falldown.

Let us say where EB2WW(ROW+M+P) required more visas than their Quarterly allocation in quarters I & II, and the falldown from EB1 was used to issue those visas. Quarter III and in July there are spare visas within EB2WW, could that be transferred to EB2I as Fall Across.

Thanks,

Matt

[Spectator]

Spec,

I have a question about Fall Across Vs Falldown.

Let us say where EB2WW(ROW+M+P) required more visas than their Quarterly allocation in quarters I & II, and the falldown from EB1 was used to issue those visas. Quarter III and in July there are spare visas within EB2WW, could that be transferred to EB2I as Fall Across.

Thanks,

Matt

Matt,

Not sure how to answer your question.

I'm not entirely happy with the answer below because I'm not entirely sure I've understood your question fully - you might have to expand it a bit so that my feeble mind can understand better and attempt to answer it.


Rather than think of Fall Down and Fall Across (which have specific laws governing them), it is better to think of it as under use against the 27% of total EB usage allowed in each of the first 3 quarters (and it is complicated by that number changing part way through the year).

The reason I say that is that the normal spillover rules don't apply. It is use within the overall 27% that is important at that stage.

For instance, if EB3 was under using, then those numbers could be used to give EB2 (or any other Category) extra visas if necessary. That couldn't happen under spillover rules. Later in the year, clearly EB3 would have to over use to reach their allocation.

Similarly, if EB2 under used numbers, they could be be given to EB3 (or another Category) if those Categories suddenly had more demand.

Clearly, at some point (probably in Q4), the decision about releasing spillover has to be made, at which point the laws for Fall Down and Fall Across need to be observed.

The answer to your question, I think, is a qualified yes, but only if EB2-WW ultimately have spare visas to contribute and only when the decision to release spillover was made - the fact that they needed more earlier, for whatever reason, wouldn't be the deciding factor - a lack of continuing demand would be.

[Niksammy]

Would the current slowdown in PERM approvals have any significant impact on the time of EB2I retrogression in FY 2013? Instead of retrogressing dates from 1st Oct 2013, could CO decide to retrogress dates in Nov or Dec 2013 because of lack of demand due to slow PERM approvals. Any thoughts.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

Not sure how to answer your question.

I'm not entirely happy with the answer below because I'm not entirely sure I've understood your question fully - you might have to expand it a bit so that my feeble mind can understand better and attempt to answer it.


Rather than think of Fall Down and Fall Across (which have specific laws governing them), it is better to think of it as under use against the 27% of total EB usage allowed in each of the first 3 quarters (and it is complicated by that number changing part way through the year).

The reason I say that is that the normal spillover rules don't apply. It is use within the overall 27% that is important at that stage.

For instance, if EB3 was under using, then those numbers could be used to give EB2 (or any other Category) extra visas if necessary. That couldn't happen under spillover rules. Later in the year, clearly EB3 would have to over use to reach their allocation.

Similarly, if EB2 under used numbers, they could be be given to EB3 (or another Category) if those Categories suddenly had more demand.

Clearly, at some point (probably in Q4), the decision about releasing spillover has to be made, at which point the laws for Fall Down and Fall Across need to be observed.

The answer to your question, I think, is a qualified yes, but only if EB2-WW ultimately have spare visas to contribute and only when the decision to release spillover was made - the fact that they needed more earlier, for whatever reason, wouldn't be the deciding factor - a lack of continuing demand would be.

Thanks Spec, your answer helped me. To summarize- within the 27% quarterly allocation ,visa can be allocated to any category(with some internal calculations of annual demand and date movements) and later in the fiscal year the balancing takes place, and from that point all the other spillover rules apply.

[MATT2012]

Would the current slowdown in PERM approvals have any significant impact on the time of EB2I retrogression in FY 2013? Instead of retrogressing dates from 1st Oct 2013, could CO decide to retrogress dates in Nov or Dec 2013 because of lack of demand due to slow PERM approvals. Any thoughts.

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

[seattlet]

Just as Spec mentioned if the current slowdown in PERM is due to sequestration , then it should pick up speed from Sep 15th and go back to normal in 2 to 3 months. However if the slowdown worsens or continues, i predict EB2 WW will be under utilizing their allocated quarterly visas next year 1st quarter. and that might help EB2 I retrogress mildly or not retrogress at all. However
since CO does not do quarterly spillover, it might just be an arbitary decision on his part to retrogress Eb2 I even though EB2 WW does not utilize their quarterly allocation

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

[desitiger]

Congrats to everyone who are about to receive their GC in coming days.

[Kanmani]

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

Did you mean to say new I-485 cases (Missed the boat twice)?

[MATT2012]

Did you mean to say new I-485 cases (Missed the boat twice)?

Majority of the new I-485 filed between now and September will not show up first week of October, when the demand for November VB is published. Those case will show up after that and will be part of December VB. Also for the cases with existing I-485(EB3), with a new EB2 I-140 approved in September, may not show up in early October. I think we will see something like we witnessed this fiscal year, DD increasing marginally every month next fiscal due to pending cases from this fiscal.

[Niksammy]

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

So the key for where EB2I dates end up (or retrogress) in Oct/Nov 2013 will NOT ONLY be the number of EB2I pending cases from this year, but also the priority date of those pending cases. If most of the pending cases from current fiscal year fall in 2007 and 2008 range, dates should not retrogress beyond Jan 2007 for atleast 1-2 months(Oct - Nov 2013).

Once new porting demand and demand from first time i-485 filers from Aug-Sept 2013 shows up by the time Dec VB releases (around 10th Nov), CO may retrogress dates further. Is this a fair assumption?