EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[natvyas]

Issuance of an RFE doesn't mean a GC will be made available in next bulletin. It may be part of a wholesome cleanup exercise too. These things are hard to explain. Our prediction specialists do their best, based on available info and their own hunch. Can't hold anyone for it.

Dear Sir

With all due respect, you have totally misunderstood my line of questions. I have been around this forum for sometime to know that this forum is all about predictions based on calculations (which in turn is based on known information).

By no means was my post intending to hold anyone to your prediction.

Thanking you for your time.

Best regards
Nat

[primus]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

[Vkkpnm]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

I would have asked lawyer jokes apart, I filled it by hand.

[Mini Kumar]

We are filing our AOS on 8/1.Booked our visa stamping which is valid till 2014 oct on 10th Aug at Chennai.There will be doing the ten finger print.Do we need to again for FP here after returning back?Will the FP done at US consulate can be used here?

[vizcard]

We are filing our AOS on 8/1.Booked our visa stamping which is valid till 2014 oct on 10th Aug at Chennai.There will be doing the ten finger print.Do we need to again for FP here after returning back?Will the FP done at US consulate can be used here?

You have to do it again.

[indiani]

10 more days to hear from quite a lot of happy new permanent residents.

My hunch is that there will be a mass approval like the RFE's...JK

Likely they might send away all pre adjudicated in the first 2 weeks

[indiani]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

if its a flat fee lawyer just bombard them with questions, I did EAD renewal on my own but hired lawyer for 485 b'cos of OCD ( they did labor, 140 anyway). IMHO if I knew everything I know now I would have done better than lawyer as they sometimes screwup

[Kanmani]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

Primus,

Fox PDF Editor tool can be used to fill the forms . It was free, please check with the availability.

[desitiger]

Thanks for summarizing the movement in Sep bulletin. I hope/pray/beg to god that it moves to April 2008. Getting tired of the H1B sh*t.

As Indiani pointed out, we have only few weeks left to know for real.

But as my last post on the subject of FY2013 calculations.

Let me answer the easier part first, EB2C except Q4, is based on rough quarterly allocation and a direct logic based demand data. For the last quarter for EB2C, I also allocated their 7% share from SO. EB2I is derived from Inventory numbers for Q1 and Q2. Q3 for EB2 India is based on drop in approvals we noticed and leveling off of the surge caused by retrogression.

EB1 is the toughest assumption and is derived as a factor of first quarter split of approvals. I also had a high number and low number based on inventory comparison and trackitt data. Once USCIS published the first quarter I485 approval stats, the number was trending below the mid point of the range . I also had a calculation to support lower Inventory numbers for second quarter EB1 , which turned out to be true when April Inventory numbers came out.

EB2WW , Quarter 1 is based on I-485 approvals, making a logical split between different categories. Quarter 2 for EB2WW is considered equal to Quarter I, the basis being 9 month weightage given to the first six months. I also had a very close number based on USCIS inventory figures, converted using trackitt approval percentages of respective months. Also an approximate PERM conversion also points to a very similar number. The odds against the logic is high first and second quarter trackitt approvals. But I could say with reasonable confidence that EB2WW crossing 40K number will be very less.

I am sure, EB4 and EB5 numbers are very close to consensus estimates.

if you look into the EB2I numbers (mentioned in my earlier post)for last quarter + CP, it is close to 17K. That number will support a very reasonable number of porting APPROVALS, after considering current demand until end of March. One of the negatives in the whole calculation is, if EB3 performed really low in first quarter. I don't think so, but debatable.

For the Sep bulletin, I know there is a fair consensus around 1st March, 2008, which also supports the high end of CO statement interpretation( dates moving to Feb). If porting approvals reaches high end of estimates together with EB1 approvals shooting to the max range, we have an issue. Otherwise, 3 months of movement is possible.

Just taking this opportunity to consolidate the thoughts of regular posters as I understood, correct me If I am wrong. I am doing this just because I noticed at least a few questions about Sep month predictions.

Q: One month to max six month movement (July 1st,2008).
Spec: No movement to Max until April 1st, 2008
Viz: One month to max March 1st,2008
Indiani: One month to max March 1st, 2008
Kanmani: ?? I know you had a first quarter 2008, but am not sure of dates.
Matt: One month to max May 1st 2008, though I will stick with April 1st, 2008

if I have left anybody, it was not intentional, but because I was not clear. Good luck to all those who got current in August bulletin and the prospective in the next bulletin. As always I would try to answer other questions, if not calculation related to FY2013.

Cheers!!

Matt

[kuku82]

Hey guys, an off topic question.

My H1B is stamped till 2015 but my I-94 expires in Oct 2013. The I94 validity is tied to my passport expiry date. However, I have a renewed passport now.

I was hoping I could drive into Canada and come back to get a new I94, but it seems they are taking 2+ months or so for processing visitor visas (there is some strike going on it seems). Is there a way by which I could drive out of US, but not cross the Canadian post, and then return back to the US side? If so, any risks involved?

[coolvibe]

Kuku92 -

Well for your I-94 extension you dont have to cross the border. 1) Take the appointment from your nearest USCusomeBorder security Inspectionoffice.
http://www.avlawoffice.com/USCustoms...Inspection.htm
2)Tell them that even though you have a valid visa date on your passport the immigraiton officer has given you limited time on I-94.
3)They will fix it for you and will issue new I-94 and update their system accordinlgy. I have done it once going to Kansas city Airport by taking an appointment.(I use to live in Topeka,KS at that pointof time, hence Kansas city airport was nearby)

[kuku82]

Hey thanks for the quick response but that didn't work. I went to Philly airport but they didn't entertain my request.....

Kuku92 -

Well for your I-94 extension you dont have to cross the border. 1) Take the appointment from your nearest USCusomeBorder security Inspectionoffice.
http://www.avlawoffice.com/USCustoms...Inspection.htm
2)Tell them that even though you have a valid visa date on your passport the immigraiton officer has given you limited time on I-94.
3)They will fix it for you and will issue new I-94 and update their system accordinlgy. I have done it once going to Kansas city Airport by taking an appointment.(I use to live in Topeka,KS at that pointof time, hence Kansas city airport was nearby)

[geterdone]

I had the same situation. In my case I went to a Mexico/US border crossing. I did go with a guy from the agency that takes you to consulates for visa stamping in mexico. We waited for an hour and after that the officer called me and when I told my situation he issued a new I-94. No issues there. No questions asked. I could have gone alone, but did n't want to take chance.

I would imagine you can do the same at the US/Canada border. I don't think you need to cross the border or take Canadian visa. To be on the safer side you can take a letter from the employer. They did not ask me for it and I didn't have one, but take one just to be safe.

Hey guys, an off topic question.

My H1B is stamped till 2015 but my I-94 expires in Oct 2013. The I94 validity is tied to my passport expiry date. However, I have a renewed passport now.

I was hoping I could drive into Canada and come back to get a new I94, but it seems they are taking 2+ months or so for processing visitor visas (there is some strike going on it seems). Is there a way by which I could drive out of US, but not cross the Canadian post, and then return back to the US side? If so, any risks involved?

[redsox2009]

Average Number of I-140's and I-485's filling are coming down, this is a good sign. We can expect atleast 3-6 months movement.

[vizcard]

Average Number of I-140's and I-485's filling are coming down, this is a good sign. We can expect atleast 3-6 months movement.

how do you figure that ?

[vizcard]

Hi everyone,

Does anyone know where to send the AC21 documents (TSC)? I used to have this info and I seem to have lost it. Online search shows different things...I will really appreciate if someone can quickly remind it to me. I need to post these documents today itself. Thanks!

What docs are you sending and why? Just asking coz I may be doign that myself

[redsox2009]

how do you figure that ?

USCIS Dashboard

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan33, Did you file your I-485 by yourself or thru' an attorney?

By submitting G-28 Form along with I-485, you have authorized the attorney to act on behalf of yourself. Any correspondence from USCIS may go to your old attorney, assuming the validity of G-28.

[SmileBaba]

Freinds,
In the event of Green card approval, is it required to fill and submit I-9 form? I am currently not working with my petitioning employer and was wondering if I should be ready to do that once my GC is approved.
What could be other important things that one shouldn't miss/avoid after GC approval?

[vizcard]

Freinds,
In the event of Green card approval, is it required to fill and submit I-9 form? I am currently not working with my petitioning employer and was wondering if I should be ready to do that once my GC is approved.
What could be other important things that one shouldn't miss/avoid after GC approval?

I'm sure you can find a list someone where online. But the 2 key things (for both you and your family members) are -
- file new I9 with your current employer
- get a new social security card without any restrictions on them (same SSN)

[incredible]

The second point is the first time I heard regarding Social Security Card. I am on EAD for more than a year now. Any specific advantages to get the new Social Security card after EAD ?
Also is there any time limit to apply for AC-21 after we change the job. I have changed my jobs about a week back and my employer is still doing some internal processing to provide me with a letter (they said they will provide the letter).

I'm sure you can find a list someone where online. But the 2 key things (for both you and your family members) are -
- file new I9 with your current employer
- get a new social security card without any restrictions on them (same SSN)

[gclabor07]

You don't need to go to a border to do this. You just need to visit a local USCIS field office (same office where people take INFOpass and stuff like that) and discuss your situation there. In my case, I was able to do this in Atlanta USCIS field office. Airport is hard because those folks probably sit away in a secure area.

I had the same situation. In my case I went to a Mexico/US border crossing. I did go with a guy from the agency that takes you to consulates for visa stamping in mexico. We waited for an hour and after that the officer called me and when I told my situation he issued a new I-94. No issues there. No questions asked. I could have gone alone, but did n't want to take chance.

I would imagine you can do the same at the US/Canada border. I don't think you need to cross the border or take Canadian visa. To be on the safer side you can take a letter from the employer. They did not ask me for it and I didn't have one, but take one just to be safe.

[vizcard]

The second point is the first time I heard regarding Social Security Card. I am on EAD for more than a year now. Any specific advantages to get the new Social Security card after EAD ?
Also is there any time limit to apply for AC-21 after we change the job. I have changed my jobs about a week back and my employer is still doing some internal processing to provide me with a letter (they said they will provide the letter).

There is NO timeline for submitting AC21 paperwork.

Your current social security card comes with employment restrictions (i.e. no employment without authorization) on it. EAD doesn't mean those employment restrictions go away. But when you get a GC, those go away. So you basically need to get a new SS card that comes without the restrictions on them.

[incredible]

Thanks vizcard. Can you elaborate on the timeline ? How soon should we have to submit the AC-21 after joining a new company?

There is timeline for submitting AC21 paperwork.

Your current social security card comes with employment restrictions (i.e. no employment without authorization) on it. EAD doesn't mean those employment restrictions go away. But when you get a GC, those go away. So you basically need to get a new SS card that comes without the restrictions on them.

[incredible]

Apologies, I thought you said there is a timeline. Thanks for providing the details

Thanks vizcard. Can you elaborate on the timeline ? How soon should we have to submit the AC-21 after joining a new company?