Just b'cos you asked, I am throwing mine in March 1st 2008Originally Posted by coolvibe
Just b'cos you asked, I am throwing mine in March 1st 2008
when they are reviewing your case they change to intial review, that means someone touching your file, so good news, if u don't get RFE after that then mostly its pre-adj
Matt is obviously using his own assumptions. Personally i think EB2WW is light in his assumptions but i cant say its totally wrong.
Matt is obviously using his own assumptions. Personally i think EB2WW is light in his assumptions but i cant say its totally wrong.
Last edited by vizcard; Today at 09:52 AM.
Indiani- (1st March 2008) :Thanks for your predictions.
Vizcard-Since you had added your comments, can you please provide your prediction once again for ready reference of forum members.
Wonder if sequestration has any effect ?.........
I think it'll be Mar 1 as well with an asterisk mark. Ofcourse CO could go much further and we will run in to non-FIFO approvals.
My assumptions behind EB2I reaching April 1st,2008 by next bulletin. From USCIS figures 33500 EB I485s were approved in first Quarter. The second last line is for CP cases. There may be couple of 100 more visas available from FB, that could be released in Sep bulletin.
---------EB2WW---- EB1-------EB4------EB5--------EB3-------EB2I----EB2C-----Total
QTR I----11750----9800------1850-----300-------8000------1000---- 800-------33500
QTR II---11750---- 8700------1500-----200-------8000------800----- 800-------31750
QTR III--7850------7500------1500-----200-------7000------500-----800-------25350
QTR **--6100------ 6800------1250-----200-------12500----16600---1600------45050
CP-------1200------ 1500------1200-----8000-------9700----350------400--------22350
Total----- 38650----34300----7300-----8900-------45200---19250---4400------158000
Gurus/ friends , apologies to distract . Kindly remove my post from this thread later. Wanted to get your take.
my EB2 Ind date is current next month with Dec 07 PD pending 485 . Yesterday evening while driving with my family ,3 yr old daughter was briefly taken out of seat to pacify and I ( dependent derivative of 485- Primary already approved with GC ) got a ticket with summons to the municipal courthouse in NJ pursuant to " Failure to use a child passenger restraint when transporting a child under the age of eight and weighing less than 80 pounds" . This is the first time I ever got a ticket in these 10 yrs in US. This has a fine up to $54 .
With my dates being current next month , does this have any impact on my 485 process. Been checking online about this since yesterday .
Viz and Indiani
A) How do you explain the RFE notices to Mar 08 applicants?
B) even though there are enough EB2 ROW applications with USCIS, however the issuance of GC are very slow this month..
Regards
Nat
Shouldn't be an issue. They have already completed a background check. The phrasing sounds like its in NJ and I believe its either just an "infraction" or worst case a "misdemeanor" offense.
a) Could be a back up plan coz number of porters are unknown.
b) I'm assuming you are basing this off Trackitt info. may be people just haven't been updating their profiles or may be its some sort of curve as to when they actually get sent out .. I dont know. The absolutely worst case scenario would be that they have exceeded their quota and have an internal retrogression.
What is the basis for Q2, Q3 and Q4 approvals?
no one knows at this point including CO with 100% certainity, thats why no point in too detail analysis this far into the fiscal yr in IMO.
approx almost everyone agrees that there will be few months( 2-3) movement, very few believe it will be 6 months or more.
As Indiani pointed out, we have only few weeks left to know for real.
But as my last post on the subject of FY2013 calculations.
Let me answer the easier part first, EB2C except Q4, is based on rough quarterly allocation and a direct logic based demand data. For the last quarter for EB2C, I also allocated their 7% share from SO. EB2I is derived from Inventory numbers for Q1 and Q2. Q3 for EB2 India is based on drop in approvals we noticed and leveling off of the surge caused by retrogression.
EB1 is the toughest assumption and is derived as a factor of first quarter split of approvals. I also had a high number and low number based on inventory comparison and trackitt data. Once USCIS published the first quarter I485 approval stats, the number was trending below the mid point of the range . I also had a calculation to support lower Inventory numbers for second quarter EB1 , which turned out to be true when April Inventory numbers came out.
EB2WW , Quarter 1 is based on I-485 approvals, making a logical split between different categories. Quarter 2 for EB2WW is considered equal to Quarter I, the basis being 9 month weightage given to the first six months. I also had a very close number based on USCIS inventory figures, converted using trackitt approval percentages of respective months. Also an approximate PERM conversion also points to a very similar number. The odds against the logic is high first and second quarter trackitt approvals. But I could say with reasonable confidence that EB2WW crossing 40K number will be very less.
I am sure, EB4 and EB5 numbers are very close to consensus estimates.
if you look into the EB2I numbers (mentioned in my earlier post)for last quarter + CP, it is close to 17K. That number will support a very reasonable number of porting APPROVALS, after considering current demand until end of March. One of the negatives in the whole calculation is, if EB3 performed really low in first quarter. I don't think so, but debatable.
For the Sep bulletin, I know there is a fair consensus around 1st March, 2008, which also supports the high end of CO statement interpretation( dates moving to Feb). If porting approvals reaches high end of estimates together with EB1 approvals shooting to the max range, we have an issue. Otherwise, 3 months of movement is possible.
Just taking this opportunity to consolidate the thoughts of regular posters as I understood, correct me If I am wrong. I am doing this just because I noticed at least a few questions about Sep month predictions.
Q: One month to max six month movement (July 1st,2008).
Spec: No movement to Max until April 1st, 2008
Viz: One month to max March 1st,2008
Indiani: One month to max March 1st, 2008
Kanmani: ?? I know you had a first quarter 2008, but am not sure of dates.
Matt: One month to max May 1st 2008, though I will stick with April 1st, 2008
if I have left anybody, it was not intentional, but because I was not clear. Good luck to all those who got current in August bulletin and the prospective in the next bulletin. As always I would try to answer other questions, if not calculation related to FY2013.
Cheers!!
Matt
Matt,
That is not the easiest part in my opinion
I disagree that part. I spent hours to find a basis.
As far as my guess ( I don't have calculations, 100% guess) 1 June 2008 to India might catch up with China.
Thanks Kanmani sharing your view about EB2I, I understand the complexity around EB2C.Matt,
That is not the easiest part in my opinion
I disagree that part. I spent hours to find a basis.
As far as my guess ( I don't have calculations, 100% guess) 1 June 2008 to India might catch up with China.
@Kanmani - Lets see if we get some MS Dhoni moments for Sept bulletin
I am going on a hiding in India to avoid stones .(of-course!) Advance Congratulations to all our members who will be Greened in August and Best wishes to rest of 2008 PDers.
@Eb2_Dec07 - I don't think traffic violation of this kind would cause hindrance to your GC approval. As far as I know this doesn't even come under misdemeanor charge. Don't worry. During naturalization, the application might carry questions on court appearances, even then it is just a traffic violation.
@ Vizcard and @Kanmani , thanks a lot for your comments. Kanmani , enjoy your trip to india .
My friend was pulled over for not fastening a 6 month infant in car seat. But that time the officer witnessed the cholic cry and he gave him a warning.
When a 3 yr old is upset, best is to pit stop and get the situation under control.
If it was emergency situtation that you had to travel, then you can go to court and explain your reasons. If judge buys it, he may wave it off.
Traffic violations should not affect your GC.
TSC || PD: Apr-2008 || RD: 17-Jan-2012 || FP: 27-Feb-2012|| EAD/AP: 28-Feb-2012 || I-485: Greened
Issuance of an RFE doesn't mean a GC will be made available in next bulletin. It may be part of a wholesome cleanup exercise too. These things are hard to explain. Our prediction specialists do their best, based on available info and their own hunch. Can't hold anyone for it.
TSC || PD: Apr-2008 || RD: 17-Jan-2012 || FP: 27-Feb-2012|| EAD/AP: 28-Feb-2012 || I-485: Greened
hello guys, a quick question: If I want to ensure my I485 application reach USCIS center on 1st Aug, any idea what time do they open their centers to start receiving applications?
better arrange the timing of fedex/usps in a way that it goes there after 9 am after 1st. if it reaches early they will reject
I understand your situation and anxiety to make sure your app reaches on August 1st, been in your shoes. Believe me one day will not affect your application...you can always send it on August 1st, if you want you can overnight it.
Just a friendly suggestion, I think it is not worth taking a risk of timing. You dont want to reach your app on July 31st.
NSC, EB2I, PD: Dec 31,07, RD: Dec 21,2011, ND: Dec 27, 2011, EAD/AP: Feb 2011, I485: Waiting.
I140 Amendment filed along with 485 due to company acquisition. . Amended I140 approved. RFE received on 485 application. Submitted proof in May 2012.
One day does make lot of difference some times. Just to explain local USCIS office did not allow us walkin for finger prints during Feb 2012 time. People who got finger prints done through same service center 1 day before us got their GCs even though their PD is after me. Luck also plays a great role in this GC process. Send the documents over night through fedex on July 31st evening time. It will get delivered next day morning. Good luck...
TSC || PD: May-2008 || RD: 04-Jan-2012 || ND: 06-Jan-2012 || FP: 20-Mar-2012|| EAD/AP: 13-Feb-2012 || I-485: Waiting... Waiting...
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