EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[rferni]

I personally do not believe it will be 34K. My expectation is it will be around 40K (given the retrogression last year).

Estimates are as high as 43K on this forum.(My calculation is around 37-38K)

Thanks - understood. Is there any available data that facilitates this estimation of EB ROW usage?

It sounds like if EB2 ROW consumes between 38K and 40K - and EB1, EB4 and EB5 consume their entire 'regular' quota (40K, 9.9K and 9.9K respectively), then the estimated spillover for EB2I is somewhere between 6.5K and 8.5K only? Perhaps I am calculating this incorrectly?

[suninphx]

Thanks - understood. Is there any available data that facilitates this estimation of EB ROW usage?

It sounds like if EB2 ROW consumes between 38K and 40K - and EB1, EB4 and EB5 consume their entire 'regular' quota (40K, 9.9K and 9.9K respectively), then the estimated spillover for EB2I is somewhere between 6.5K and 8.5K only? Perhaps I am calculating this incorrectly?

Check posts first page for calculation of other categories.

As far as 43 K consumption goes-theory(not mine) around that is EB2ROW is going to consume 15 month worth of visas. So 15*2800-2900/pm ~ 43000.

My personal opinion is EB2ROW consumption started trending down since quite sometime back - based solely on trackitt data (I485 receipts)/month. I had calculated based on receipts since Oct 2012 (when dates became current for EB2ROW). But I think Spec's opinion was that we should include data since Jun 2012 because lot of people 'brought forward' their I485 filing because dates were going to retrogress from Jul 12 onwards.

My only doubt with that theory was ( or may be I did not understood Spec's point completely) that how can people(in large number) bring forward I485 filing without a approved PERM. I can understand that may happen for few people but June 12 has unusually high EB2ROW I485 receipts on trackitt.

ASFAIK - Spec's calculation does not have 43K EB2ROW number but he guess he is camp which assumes high EB2ROW consumption this FY. (40k +)

HTH.

[MATT2012]

Check posts first page for calculation of other categories.

As far as 43 K consumption goes-theory(not mine) around that is EB2ROW is going to consume 15 month worth of visas. So 15*2800-2900/pm ~ 43000.

My personal opinion is EB2ROW consumption started trending down since quite sometime back - based solely on trackitt data (I485 receipts)/month. I had calculated based on receipts since Oct 2012 (when dates became current for EB2ROW). But I think Spec's opinion was that we should include data since Jun 2012 because lot of people 'brought forward' their I485 filing because dates were going to retrogress from Jul 12 onwards.

My only doubt with that theory was ( or may be I did not understood Spec's point completely) that how can people(in large number) bring forward I485 filing without a approved PERM. I can understand that may happen for few people but June 12 has unusually high EB2ROW I485 receipts on trackitt.

ASFAIK - Spec's calculation does not have 43K EB2ROW number but he guess he is camp which assumes high EB2ROW consumption this FY. (40k +)

HTH.

Majority of the I-485 EB2ROW approvals from first quarter of this fiscal (Oct 2012 to Dec 2012) were from I-485 receipts of last fiscal. There were some cases from October I-485 filers who got approval before December, but few.

[indiani]

If you are referring to the recent discussion on processing priority, the discussion was actually on fresh applications received by USCIS. There were disagreements and no unanimous conclusion reached.

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

In practice they don't actually follow this FIFO once PD is current.

August 1st itself will give us the answer.

[Niksammy]

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

Almost all the cases before 31 Dec 2006 for Eb2I will be porters whose dates were not current when they upgraded from Eb3 to Eb2 (let us assume that these people have already sent interfile letters and are pre-adjudicated). For 2007, we will have a mix of porters as well as original Eb2 applicants.

If visa for retrogressed countries like India and China are allocated strictly by priority date order, does it mean that USCIS will not approve i-485 for any original 2007 Eb2I applicants till they have processed all applicants till 2006 (these will be people upgrading from Eb3-Eb2)?

I remember Matt mentioning in one of his posts that USCIS takes close to 3 weeks to process interfile requests. Does it mean that there won't be much approvals for 2007 Eb2I till 3rd week of August (if USCIS has to process by order of priority date) OR do you think that USCIS will start approving original 2007 EB2I applicants immediately.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EB2 upgrades/porters till 2006 will most of the times have an earlier receipt date as compared to original 2007 Eb2I applicants.

[MATT2012]

Almost all the cases before 31 Dec 2006 for Eb2I will be porters whose dates were not current when they upgraded from Eb3 to Eb2 (let us assume that these people have already sent interfile letters and are pre-adjudicated). For 2007, we will have a mix of porters as well as original Eb2 applicants.

If visa for retrogressed countries like India and China are allocated strictly by priority date order, does it mean that USCIS will not approve i-485 for any original 2007 Eb2I applicants till they have processed all applicants till 2006 (these will be people upgrading from Eb3-Eb2)?

I remember Matt mentioning in one of his posts that USCIS takes close to 3 weeks to process interfile requests. Does it mean that there won't be much approvals for 2007 Eb2I till 3rd week of August (if USCIS has to process by order of priority date) OR do you think that USCIS will start approving original 2007 EB2I applicants immediately.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EB2 upgrades/porters till 2006 will most of the times have an earlier receipt date as compared to original 2007 Eb2I applicants.

Niksammy,

For all pre-adjudicated applicants currently in EB2I bucket before Jan1st,2008 visas are allocated during VB tabulation process. As Kanmani pointed out earlier, an adjudicating officer is not linked to those pre-adjudicated cases when visa gets allocated. During the month of August, adjudicating officers will pick up the files/boxes and issue GC in majority of the cases, in some cases they may request further evidence. Given the fact that USCIS is pro-actively issuing RFEs, the number of new RFE's should come down. As the file requires one final review before card production, it will depend upon the processing speed of the particular officer. From an external point of view, we may see a Dec 31,2007 case getting approved before Sep, 2004. That pattern will continue through the month. Kanmani point was Pre-adjudicated cases getting visa allocated is in PD order not USCIS issuing cards. I hope, I explained the difference well enough.

There are some cases before 2007 who are already pre-adjudicated under EB2, those may be porters before June, 2012.

My three week estimate was for interfile applications submitted from June 2012 until now. The last approval of an interfile application in trackitt took exactly three weeks from interfile date. The interfile cases technically should be processed in application order, but again there is a huge dependency on individual officers.

[kpt112107]

'SOME BODY POSTED BELOW ONE IN TRACKITT'
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
"Today my and my wife's 485 status changed to card production. Our PD is Nov 2007. Recently got RFE (June 14th) for EVL and status was on RFE response review from July 16th. Anybody got similar status change? Please share"

Is it GC? or Something else?

[indiani]

Pls read the entire trackitt thread, its not GC approval.

online status is not 100% reliable.

If GC approved 1-2 days before PD current , it might make some sense ( even though lawfully they cant issue GC until PD is current)

[Niksammy]

Niksammy,

For all pre-adjudicated applicants currently in EB2I bucket before Jan1st,2008 visas are allocated during VB tabulation process. As Kanmani pointed out earlier, an adjudicating officer is not linked to those pre-adjudicated cases when visa gets allocated. During the month of August, adjudicating officers will pick up the files/boxes and issue GC in majority of the cases, in some cases they may request further evidence. Given the fact that USCIS is pro-actively issuing RFEs, the number of new RFE's should come down. As the file requires one final review before card production, it will depend upon the processing speed of the particular officer. From an external point of view, we may see a Dec 31,2007 case getting approved before Sep, 2004. That pattern will continue through the month. Kanmani point was Pre-adjudicated cases getting visa allocated is in PD order not USCIS issuing cards. I hope, I explained the difference well enough.

There are some cases before 2007 who are already pre-adjudicated under EB2, those may be porters before June, 2012.

My three week estimate was for interfile applications submitted from June 2012 until now. The last approval of an interfile application in trackitt took exactly three weeks from interfile date. The interfile cases technically should be processed in application order, but again there is a huge dependency on individual officers.

Now I get it - I was treating DoS Visa allocation and USCIS issuing card as one single process. Actually, they are 2 processes. Thanks a lot for the detailed explanation.

[indiani]

Next year SO depends mostly on FA from EB2 ROW and FD form EB4 as FD from "EB1 and EB5 and FB SO will be a whole lot less than this year".

In short the worse case scenario will be less than 10K SO.

[Kanmani]

Let me explain the process in simple words.

As we know both the DoS and USCIS have hands on Immigration process, the DoS has only Visa tokens along their side, rest of our applications, interviews, RFEs are handled by USCIS.

DoS --- Visa Token
USCIS --- GC issuing Authority

1. Whenever USCIS finds an I 485 application ready for approval, it asks DoS for Visa token .

2. USCIS refers the applicant with an Alien Number/Category/Country of origin.. DoS is informed that A.No- 101(say) is ready for approval send me a Visa token.

3. If India Quota has availability , DoS sends one, otherwise the A.No.101 is put on a waiting list. The A.Numbers are arranged in priority date order with the earliest first. This waiting list is officially called Demand Data which is maintained by DoS.

4. Whenever there are visas available which are otherwise not required by other countries(Spillover), DoS decides to clear the waiting list.

5. So each A.No is allotted with 1 Visa token, purely by ascending order of their PD from the waiting list pool.

6. A.No ---> Visa token list is now sent to USCIS.

7. USCIS picks the respective pending file and approves it (by ordering to print Green Card.)

[Kanmani]

Almost all the cases before 31 Dec 2006 for Eb2I will be porters whose dates were not current when they upgraded from Eb3 to Eb2 (let us assume that these people have already sent interfile letters and are pre-adjudicated). For 2007, we will have a mix of porters as well as original Eb2 applicants.

If visa for retrogressed countries like India and China are allocated strictly by priority date order, does it mean that USCIS will not approve i-485 for any original 2007 Eb2I applicants till they have processed all applicants till 2006 (these will be people upgrading from Eb3-Eb2)?

I remember Matt mentioning in one of his posts that USCIS takes close to 3 weeks to process interfile requests. Does it mean that there won't be much approvals for 2007 Eb2I till 3rd week of August (if USCIS has to process by order of priority date) OR do you think that USCIS will start approving original 2007 EB2I applicants immediately.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EB2 upgrades/porters till 2006 will most of the times have an earlier receipt date as compared to original 2007 Eb2I applicants.

Nik,

By law, EB3 ----> EB2 conversion is possible only when the respective eb2 pd is current. Interfilers are not yet reached the DoS waiting list.

By moving dates up to 1 jan 2008, step 4 and step 5 is almost done.

Step 6 is due by 1st august 2013

Now on 1st August 2013, the interfilers will start filling the waiting list pool , visas allotted again by PD order etc.....

[Kanmani]

Matt, Thanks. I didn't notice your reply.

[indiani]

Let me explain the process in simple words.

As we know both the DoS and USCIS have hands on Immigration process, the DoS has only Visa tokens along their side, rest of our applications, interviews, RFEs are handled by USCIS.

DoS --- Visa Token
USCIS --- GC issuing Authority

1. Whenever USCIS finds an I 485 application ready for approval, it asks DoS for Visa token .

2. USCIS refers the applicant with an Alien Number/Category/Country of origin.. DoS is informed that A.No- 101(say) is ready for approval send me a Visa token.

3. If India Quota has availability , DoS sends one, otherwise the A.No.101 is put on a waiting list. The A.Numbers are arranged in priority date order with the earliest first. This waiting list is officially called Demand Data which is maintained by DoS.

4. Whenever there are visas available which are otherwise not required by other countries(Spillover), DoS decides to clear the waiting list.

5. So each A.No is allotted with 1 Visa token, purely by ascending order of their PD from the waiting list pool.

6. A.No ---> Visa token list is now sent to USCIS.

7. USCIS picks the respective pending file and approves it (by ordering to print Green Card.)

I think the other important question which is on most people's mind which matt already addressed is

in august is there a chance of nov 2007 getting approved before nov 2006 , assuming both are pre-adjudicated and current ( not interfilers )

[Kanmani]

I think the other important question which is on most people's mind which matt already addressed is

in august is there a chance of nov 2007 getting approved before nov 2006 , assuming both are pre-adjudicated and current ( not interfilers )

I have answered this earlier today. It is in the hands of Adj, who is holding your file.

From my post,

DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

[MATT2012]

Matt, Thanks. I didn't notice your reply.

Did you notice the trackitt case, I had more than half a mind to congratulate. I hope the next sequence of events happen only around August 1st.

[Kanmani]

Did you notice the trackitt case, I had more than half a mind to congratulate. I hope the next sequence of events happen only around August 1st.

MATT,

DoS acknowledged this kind of errors happening at USCIS. Once Welcome notice is sent (even) by error, DoS is obliged to issue a visa number to the respective applicant . They said they'll give it from otherwise unused numbers.

Guys, the above is true. Don't ask me source, I haven't bookmarked it .

[Geevij]

Hi All,
Wanted to check if any one is like me. I recently received an update (PD is current next month) from USCIS saying that RFEs have been triggered for me and my dependent applicant. However, I did not receive the RFEs yet and the USCIS case status does not show that the status is in RFE. Do you think there is an RFE for my case at all? Its been 25 days but neither my lawyer nor me received the RFEs physical copies yest.

Anyone in the same situation?
-geevij

[chittoor]

Hi All,
Wanted to check if any one is like me. I recently received an update (PD is current next month) from USCIS saying that RFEs have been triggered for me and my dependent applicant. However, I did not receive the RFEs yet and the USCIS case status does not show that the status is in RFE. Do you think there is an RFE for my case at all? Its been 25 days but neither my lawyer nor me received the RFEs physical copies yest.

Anyone in the same situation?
-geevij

Geevij, i saw a similar case in Trackitt, porters thread, they contacted congressman to resolve such issue, you can try this route.

[SenorMeow]

The AFM only says the conversion of the basis of the I-485 cannot take place until the new Category is Current. That IMO opinion is the request for a visa under EB2 and approval.

The rest of the process that people call interfiling can still take place. The A-file can be consolidated with the all the information, an RFE can be raised for a written request from the applicant to be considered under EB2 when the dates become Current and the I-485 can be checked for any issues that need resolving for it to remain pre-adjudicated. There seems to be plenty of evidence that is happening. The case may even be filed in the staging area under EB2.

USCIS don't appear to be reflecting the new Category in their own Inventory - the April Inventory figures were fairly close to the Demand Data published around the same time.

CO has said, that for a time, the case will be shown under both EB2 and EB3. I have no idea how quickly the EB3 case disappears from the EB3 demand and how that is accomplished. Indiani has some slides from a recent AILA conference that mentioned it - perhaps they shed more light on the subject. Previously it has been reported:



so there does appear to be some automation of the process.

People have previously thought the reduction in EB3 Demand would give some sort of handle on porting numbers. So far that hasn't really worked out. We'll just have to see if it is better this year. I've pretty much given up hope that the porting numbers can be calculated in any meaningful way from the figures available.

I'm not going to pretend I know how the system operates for porting cases, there isn't sufficient information to do that.

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense, although I must admit some of the information out there on how IVAMS is utilized by both agencies threw me for a loop. Specifically, some older links seemed to suggest that

a) USCIS can request a visa when the date is not current, whereby it gets added to pending demand in IVAMS (link) (link)
This is contradicted by the AFM instructions requiring the adjudicator to confirm a visa is available per the bulletin before placing a request in IVAMS (link)

and,

b) An A# cannot be tied with multiple visa requests in IVAMS, so the same alien cannot be pending under two categories (link)
This, as I understand, contradicts with CO's recent AILA statement that you quoted

Perhaps I'm reading this all wrong, or maybe since interfiling/IVAMS is purely an administrative process USCIS is able to bend its own rules...either way, this stuff is complicated for sure!

[MATT2012]

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense, although I must admit some of the information out there on how IVAMS is utilized by both agencies threw me for a loop. Specifically, some older links seemed to suggest that

a) USCIS can request a visa when the date is not current, whereby it gets added to pending demand in IVAMS (link) (link)
This is contradicted by the AFM instructions requiring the adjudicator to confirm a visa is available per the bulletin before placing a request in IVAMS (link)

and,

b) An A# cannot be tied with multiple visa requests in IVAMS, so the same alien cannot be pending under two categories (link)
This, as I understand, contradicts with CO's recent AILA statement that you quoted

Perhaps I'm reading this all wrong, or maybe since interfiling/IVAMS is purely an administrative process USCIS is able to bend its own rules...either way, this stuff is complicated for sure!

Thank you, the link was helpful. I used the link to provide clarity for an out of turn approval in trackitt. Regarding your point of USCIS requesting visa number when PD is not current, the logic is applicable to those applications submitted when PD is current and pre-adjudicated later. I will let Spec reply in detail.

Kanmani: The document you were looking for was part of the link provided by SenorMeow.

[Techsavvy1973]

Hi Friends

My PD is Feb 6, 2008 (EB2). Filed the I-485 (NSC) last January but my case status stayed at "Acceptance" all this time.

Today morning I got alerts for myself and my wife - indicating an update to the case. The status now shows "Initial Review".

Not sure if this is a good news or bad news? Wanted to share this update with all - Does this mean that Feb 2008 will be current in Sep Bulletin? Does anyone else have their case status moved from Acceptance to Initial Review recently? Does this mean that the case is not pre-adjudicated?

Thanks for creating and maintaing this forum - great info, civil discussion.

[ramakrpb]

Gurus and Pandits,

A quick question about Consular processing -

My priority date is 18-Jul-2008 (EB2I). We had paid the fee to NVC in Jan-2013 and this week we have sent DS230 and civil documents package to NVC. If Jul-08 becomes current (by extreme luck!), would NVC have enough time to process the application/documents and pass on the package to Consulate ?

Thanks for your insight!

[vizcard]

Hi Friends

My PD is Feb 6, 2008 (EB2). Filed the I-485 (NSC) last January but my case status stayed at "Acceptance" all this time.

Today morning I got alerts for myself and my wife - indicating an update to the case. The status now shows "Initial Review".

Not sure if this is a good news or bad news? Wanted to share this update with all - Does this mean that Feb 2008 will be current in Sep Bulletin? Does anyone else have their case status moved from Acceptance to Initial Review recently? Does this mean that the case is not pre-adjudicated?

Thanks for creating and maintaing this forum - great info, civil discussion.

Don't go by online statuses too much. Mine was initial review and then back to acceptance sometime last May or something. The online system is good for 2 things - acknowledging that your app is in the system and that you are approved. Everything in the middle is highly questionable.

[coolvibe]

Hi Guru's
I picked up the predictions by our Guru Brother Matt. Which says realistic prediction as 1st April 2008 for EB2I
What do other Guru's say about this predictions?

Priority Date** 1st April-2008*
Current Demand 12200
Porting 7000
Porting left over 25% -1750
Current Demand Left Over 10% -1220
Total Visas Required 16230
EB1 Usage 35000
EB2 WW (ROW+M+P) usage 38500
EB3 usage 45188
EB4 usage 7500
EB5 usage 8750
EB2 China usage 3163
EB2 India usage 3163
Total 141264
Annual Visas 158000
Total SO 16736
China Share of SO 1172
Indian Share of SO 15564
Indian Visas 800
Total Available 16364