EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[vizcard]

Thanks Veni. Any idea of the average time of receiving FP request?

Within 30 days of receipt date.

[Vkkpnm]

Within 30 days of receipt date.

Thanks Veni

[vizcard]

I moved the discussion related to AC21 and job change before 180 days to a new thread - Link

[qesehmk]

Friends - please post your questions that are not relevant to this thread - here in this thread - ONLY after you have already posted it else where and failed to receive a response.

Please respect moderators' time and effort. It is understandable and ok to post here if you don't get response elsewhere.

Thank you.

[rosharma]

Gurus,

Do you believe the porting rate (EB3I to EB2I) in FY 2014 will be same as in FY 2013? It seems Porters till July-2007 will be assigned visa numbers in FY 2013 itself and rest will at least be pre-adjudicated. Eb3 folks (post Jan-2008) may apply for porting (considering the fact that you need min 5 year experience before you can apply for porting) but I believe the process takes time and the total interfiling may be less for that period. The Eb3 folks, who missed the boat this time around (the ones whose applications are still in process), may still generate some demand – but it should be much less compare to FY 2013. Please advise.

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Do you believe the porting rate (EB3I to EB2I) in FY 2014 will be same as in FY 2013? It seems Porters till July-2007 will be assigned visa numbers in FY 2013 itself and rest will at least be pre-adjudicated. Eb3 folks (post Jan-2008) may apply for porting (considering the fact that you need min 5 year experience before you can apply for porting) but I believe the process takes time and the total interfiling may be less for that period. The Eb3 folks, who missed the boat this time around (the ones whose applications are still in process), may still generate some demand – but it should be much less compare to FY 2013. Please advise.

Welcome to the forum.

I believe the rate of porting from all years will remain unchanged, but at the same time, the actual number of Porting cases approved in FY2014 will be less than will be approved in FY2013.

Because visas ran out in April 2012 last year, many months worth of porting cases have been shifted to FY2013 which will result in an abnormally high number this year.

That won't be the case for FY2014.

But people will still be porting with PD from 2003 onwards will be completing the process and waiting for their PD to become Current. Most of those with a PD before August 2007 will already have an I-485 under EB3. Those who do have to file an I-485 for the first time when their PD becomes Current late in the FY, probably will not be approved in FY2014.

As you observe, the porting process is a long, arduous and expensive business and there is a conveyor like effect of various people at different positions in the process.

[mysati]

Hi all,

Have a few questions on FB GC process. Can anyone please help?

1. Now that the dates are current how long does it typically take for getting a GC if one applies in August?

2. What is the typical attorney fee (apart from the DHS standard fees) for one applicant?

3. The VB mentions about retrogression in a few months. What has caused this forward movement to 'C'? Is it like a pipeline build-up like what happened with the EB category in 2011/2012?

4. How far is it likely to retrogress for F2A India?

I would really appreciate any inputs, thanks!

P.S. I am unable to see an FB thread and hence I am posting it here. Moderators, please feel free to move/ delete once answered, thanks!

[Spectator]

Thoughts inline, but i don't know enough about the subject.

Hi all,

Have a few questions on FB GC process. Can anyone please help?

1. Now that the dates are current how long does it typically take for getting a GC if one applies in August?

That would depend on many factors. The I-130 would have to be approved for that to happen. The only statistics I could find for I-130 processing were from USCIS as of April 30, 2013

CSC -- I-130 -- Petition for Alien Relative -- Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 -- November 15, 2011
VSC -- I-130 -- Petition for Alien Relative -- Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 -- March 19, 2012

but I think FB cases may be sent to Chicago. Whether they are distributed from there, I have no idea.

You may want to look at the Trackitt Tracker for I-130 and F2A adjusting within the USA. A quick look says the I-130 takes anywhere between 130 days to over a year to approve. About 6 months seems to be the median time from looking at a page of data.

You could not apply until the primary becomes a GC holder themselves.

2. What is the typical attorney fee (apart from the DHS standard fees) for one applicant?

No idea.

3. The VB mentions about retrogression in a few months. What has caused this forward movement to 'C'? Is it like a pipeline build-up like what happened with the EB category in 2011/2012?

It is not simply to build up Inventory. As of November 2012, DOS alone had 220k F2A cases. Most cases use Consular Processing. As the VB says, it has been caused because a lower number of people than expected are proceeding with their cases.

Despite the fact that there are large amounts of registered F2A demand, currently there are not enough applicants who are actively pursuing final action on their case to fully utilize all of the available numbers.

4. How far is it likely to retrogress for F2A India?

No idea. Probably to some time in 2012 if I had to guess.

I would really appreciate any inputs, thanks!

P.S. I am unable to see an FB thread and hence I am posting it here. Moderators, please feel free to move/ delete once answered, thanks!

[mysati]

Thoughts inline, but i don't know enough about the subject.

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the reply. I really appreciate your help. I have one more question though.

When does one get an EAD and AP through this process, after the I-130 is approved or 3-4 months after just filing for I-130 and 485(per the standard processing time)?

Thanks again!

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the reply. I really appreciate your help. I have one more question though.

When does one get an EAD and AP through this process, after the I-130 is approved or 3-4 months after just filing for I-130 and 485(per the standard processing time)?

Thanks again!

The EAD and AP are benefits of the I-485 process. The I-130 does not need to be approved to receive that benefit. The wait time to receive them should not be different to an EB case. The USCIS Processing Times shows 3 months.

PS:- I added to my previous post about I-130 approval times and a suggestion to look at the Trackitt Tracker (with link).

[mysati]

The EAD and AP are benefits of the I-485 process. The I-130 does not need to be approved to receive that benefit. The wait time to receive them should not be different to an EB case. The USCIS Processing Times shows 3 months.

PS:- I added to my previous post about I-130 approval times and a suggestion to look at the Trackitt Tracker (with link).

Thanks a ton! Really admire your knowledge on the subject!

[rosharma]

Hi Spec,

I really appreciate your inputs. So in FY 2014 there won’t be 7K EB3-EB2 porters (as was the case in FY 2013). My priority date is Feb-2009 and EB2-I’s 2008 current backlog is alone 16K. The reason I am asking about porting is because I am trying to guesstimate if I have any realistic chance of getting greened in FY 2014.

[inspired_p]

Hi all,
I have a question - Considering that the priority date of May 2010 EB-2 I was current last year , what percentage of applicants till that priority date would have been included in the demand data?
As i would assume that 75% of applicants who were current would have already applied for I-485 and hence now once the priority date has moved to jan 2008 , not many new applications should filed? only the existing pending applications would be adjudicated.

What is the realistic timeline for end of October 2010 EB-2 I (for all practical purposes Nov 2010 ) to be current ?

I am a newbie and try to follow the comments of the experts , but posting for the first time.

Regards

[Spectator]

Thanks a ton! Really admire your knowledge on the subject!

You're welcome, although I do not think I do have particularly good knowledge of the FB system.

One other thought, which I hope is inapplicable.

The provisions of 245(k), which allow up to 180 days combined time Out Of Status and Unauthorised Employment since the last admission to the USA, only apply to EB cases in Categories EB1-EB4.

There is no such protection for FB cases. If there is any time Out of Status or Unauthorized Employment since the last admission, then the person would not be eligible for Adjustment Of Status within the USA.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

I really appreciate your inputs. So in FY 2014 there won’t be 7K EB3-EB2 porters (as was the case in FY 2013). My priority date is Feb-2009 and EB2-I’s 2008 current backlog is alone 16K. The reason I am asking about porting is because I am trying to guesstimate if I have any realistic chance of getting greened in FY 2014.

rosharma,

It should return to the normal rate, whatever that is - maybe 3-4k.

Unless there are substantial unused FB number this FY which can be added to next year's EB allocation, unfortunately I don't think reaching your PD would be possible if EB2-I finishes this year anywhere in the first half of 2008.

Let's see what the September VB brings.

[vizcard]

Hi all,
I have a question - Considering that the priority date of May 2010 EB-2 I was current last year , what percentage of applicants till that priority date would have been included in the demand data?
As i would assume that 75% of applicants who were current would have already applied for I-485 and hence now once the priority date has moved to jan 2008 , not many new applications should filed? only the existing pending applications would be adjudicated.

What is the realistic timeline for end of October 2010 EB-2 I (for all practical purposes Nov 2010 ) to be current ?

I am a newbie and try to follow the comments of the experts , but posting for the first time.

Regards

Welcome to the forum.

I'd say minimum summer FY15 (in absence of immigration reform and any weird events). Rule of thumb is PD+5 yrs. But I imagine towards the end of FY15 we'll be closing in on mid-late 2009 PDs and CO might want to build inventory again.

[PD2008AUG25]

Welcome to the forum.

I'd say minimum summer FY15 (in absence of immigration reform and any weird events). Rule of thumb is PD+5 yrs. But I imagine towards the end of FY15 we'll be closing in on mid-late 2009 PDs and CO might want to build inventory again.

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

[rferni]

Most of those with a PD before August 2007 will already have an I-485 under EB3.

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

[vizcard]

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

i agree in theory. Although if last year wasn't such as cluster in terms of random approvals, our PD would have been current this year. So for now I'm still sticking with PD+5 with a bearish outlook.

[vizcard]

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

Summer of 2007, everyone was made C. thats why a lot of EB3 have filed their 485s. We had a term called PWMB (People who missed the boat) for a while to refer to EB2s and EB3s who missed that window to file. (Ofcourse now we have a new set of PWMBs who missed out last year).

The EB3 folks who are porting will not show in EB2 demand data..although they do show in EB3 demand. When they become current, the interfiling is a technicality so they will be in teh demand but will most likely not be a demand data report as they will be cleared almost instantaneously (similar to how EB1 or EB2 ROW works).

[Spectator]

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

The dates were Current for everybody except EB3-EW in July 2007.

PERM from Chicago was being approved in 2-3 days, although those at Atlanta were not quite so lucky. It was clear as EB2-I went through those dates last year that nearly everybody through about April 2007 was able to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 application. Depending where there the PERM was, the number unable to file an I-485 increases towards July 2007 but most people were still able to file. The date to file under the July 2007 VB was extended to August 17, 2007.

That's why people say that most cases with a PD before August 2007 in EB3 will already have an I-485 submitted.

Porting cases cannot be shown under EB2 until the PD under EB2 is Current (although some people differ in this opinion). Therefore, for cases that completed the interfiling process after May 2012 with a PD after August 2004, the date has never been Current under EB2 again and they do not currently form part of the EB2 Demand.

That will change on August 1, 2013. But since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

[dontcrib]

Hi Gurus,

Mine is EB3 to Eb2 porting case with PD as 09 SEP 2008, I have not applied my 485 yet, Could you please provide a time frame considering the current demand when i can at least file 485 to get an EAD and AP.. Appreciate your responses..

[rferni]

The dates were Current for everybody except EB3-EW in July 2007.

Makes sense now - thank you for the information

Since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

Interesting. So in addition to the 8050 EB2I numbers reported in the 6/7/2013 Demand Data (number of I-485s on file with priority dates before 01/01/2008), there could be several thousand EB3 porters in line with already adjudicated I-485s, waiting to be approved? Realistically, if that number is 3000 - 4000, there may be no more spillover left to move dates further, correct? Assuming this number is pre-adjudicated, will this porting number be known to the DOS prior to the release of the Sep 2013 visa bulletin?

In other words, between 08/01/2013 (when the august window for filing opens) and 08/10/2013 (when the DOS releases the Sep 2013 visa bulletin), would it be possible that the DOS would be staring down this scenario?
1. 8050 existing EB2I are pre-adjudicated and allocated visa numbers?
2. Anywhere between 3000 - 4000 EB3I filers with already pre-adjudicated I485s on file have filed interfiling letters and allocated visa numbers?

Again, very much appreciate your help and insight. As you may tell from my profile, my EB2I priority date is 01/04/2008 and I am curious to understand the math that led to the DOS establishing a cutoff 4 days before my priority date

[vizcard]

Makes sense now - thank you for the information



Interesting. So in addition to the 8050 EB2I numbers reported in the 6/7/2013 Demand Data (number of I-485s on file with priority dates before 01/01/2008), there could be several thousand EB3 porters in line with already adjudicated I-485s, waiting to be approved? Realistically, if that number is 3000 - 4000, there may be no more spillover left to move dates further, correct? Assuming this number is pre-adjudicated, will this porting number be known to the DOS prior to the release of the Sep 2013 visa bulletin?

In other words, between 08/01/2013 (when the august window for filing opens) and 08/10/2013 (when the DOS releases the Sep 2013 visa bulletin), would it be possible that the DOS would be staring down this scenario?
1. 8050 existing EB2I are pre-adjudicated and allocated visa numbers?
2. Anywhere between 3000 - 4000 EB3I filers with already pre-adjudicated I485s on file have filed interfiling letters and allocated visa numbers?

Again, very much appreciate your help and insight. As you may tell from my profile, my EB2I priority date is 01/04/2008 and I am curious to understand the math that led to the DOS establishing a cutoff 4 days before my priority date

All of this was discussed a few pages back around the time the visa bulletin came out. Scan through those and see if you get what you need.

but short answer is ... general consensus is that dates will move in the Sept VB. How much - varies depends on who you ask.

[JackD1]

Hello everyone,

I recently came across this forum and i will have to say, it is one of the very informative, to the point and one of the most civil forums i have seen. Now i am kind of addicted to it and check it every day.
I wanted to present my situation and see if any the experts here can enlighten me --

My PD is 08/04/2008, EB2I, Applied 485 in 04/2012, Renewed EAD in 02/2013 and now EAD is valid till 02/2015. I have been working as a consultant since my first H1 and just switched my employer and recently joined another consultant. Now my H1 is renewed till 05/2016 and my lawyer filed AC21 last week.

The project i am working on right now is a full time/work from home. But in actuality there is not much work. I am in support job and if no projects are going on then i have max of 15-20 hours of actual work every week.

1) What are the chances of me getting my GC in FY2014 if not in 2013 ?

2) Do you know if it would be ok to take on another job (if i find another work from home position ?)

3) If answer to (2) is yes, then would it have to be a consulting position (so that i am with the same employer) ? or i can join another company as full time employee/or consultant using my EAD ?

3) I asked my employer about finding another project for me and whether it would be ok to work on 2 projects and he said that they will have to file another LCA for the new position and then i can on multiple positions. But i am trying to find out if i can join another company as full time employee on EAD as i am sick of paying 20% to my employer and want to join the vendor directly so i can get higher billing rate for myself.

Thanks a lot and i really appreciate your help.