EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[sbhagwat2000]

bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7904#post27904

Makes sense. Thanks for this info.

[Spectator]

Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.

You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -

Me - Hi Ron,

The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased

Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.

Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?

Ron - Yes, that is correct.

Here's my understanding.

The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.

As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).

If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.

When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.

If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.

Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.

In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.

Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.

[sbhagwat2000]

Here's my understanding.

The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.

As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).

If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.

When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.

If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.

Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.

In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.

Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.

Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -

1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?

2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?

3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.

4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -

1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?

Until I see evidence to the contrary, I have to assume so. For instance, if there is a big increase in the numbers for 2005-2006 in the next Demand Data, it would indicate that cases later than the Cut Off Date are being pre-adjudicated and a visa requested. Those would have to be mainly porting cases and it would answer the question.

2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?

The constraint is 27% of ALL EB visas per quarter, which is 37,800 visas. There is nothing to stop over allocation in a particular Category if the total remains within the limit. For instance, EB1 is quite low at present.

3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.

Not necessarily. I doubt 2.8k will be reached by the end of Q1. Also, there is nothing to stop CO releasing some spillover if he is so inclined.

4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals

Yes. There is already evidence of that. In October, there were 40 Trackitt approvals in EB2-I. So far in November, there have only been 4.

Answers in-line.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful to occasionally post the Trackitt approvals by PD as both EB2-I and EB2-WW go through a period following retrogression.

Since EB2-P and EB2-M data is not very reliable, I have only shown EB2-ROW data.

The figures include EB2-NIW.

EB2-ROW

PD -------- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- Total
October ------ 3 ----- 1 ----- 3 ----- 3 --- 58 ------ 0 ----- 68
November ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 4 --- 11 ----- 39 ----- 60
Total -------- 5 ----- 3 ----- 5 ----- 7 --- 69 ----- 39 ---- 128

About a further 150 EB2-ROW cases and 50 EB2-NIW-ROW cases with PD of 2011 or 2012 remain pending on Trackitt. Not all will ever be updated. Nonetheless, the number is substantial.

EB2-I

PD -------- 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- Total
October ------ 2 ----- 2 ---- 21 ---- 15 ----- 40
November ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 1 ------ 4
Total -------- 2 ----- 4 ---- 22 ---- 16 ----- 44


These figures are dynamic so will change quite quickly.

[qesehmk]

Happy Diwali to everybody and Happy New Year as well.

Wishing you and your families all the best in health wealth and wisdom this new year - and of course a speedy GC as well.

[Kanmani]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...010_4_2012.pdf

[openaccount]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...010_4_2012.pdf

Thanks Kanmani. Finally after 6months

Fy2013 started with
EB1---14k pending
EB2WW---15.5K pending

From this one thing is sure EB1&EB2WW are going to consume at least 30K(minimum) in first 4-6 months in FY2013

[Spectator]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...010_4_2012.pdf

Thank you Kanmani.

[sbhagwat2000]

SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts

[immi2910]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...010_4_2012.pdf

Comparing it with last inventory report for EB2I:
Year : Oct 2012 - Apr 2012
2003 : 43
2004 : 183
2005 : 220
2006 : 256
2007 : 238
2008 : 761
2009 : 770
2010 : 339

I am guessing most of the increase years prior to 2007 is due to porting. Thus, in 6 months since April there have been 940 (43+183+220+256+238) additional cases. Assuming all them are from porting it points to ~2000 Porting cases in a year, which is considerably less than ~4K to 6K numbers that I see in this forum. What am I missing.

[Spectator]

For EB2-I

Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026

Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073

[immi2910]

SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts

EB2 WW for June 2012 was 2,698!!! After June no one could file. So, if the trend continues for EB2 WW then we can expect ~40K (2700*15) applications that will be filed by Oct 2013. Assuming its takes 3 months to approve USCIS will approve ~32.5 K applications. So, I doubt EB2 WW will yield anything. It will all boil down to other categories but I doubt we will see 13K. Moreover, taking porting into account we will be lucky to get past 2007 by Sep 2013.

[openaccount]

For EB2-I

Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026

Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073

Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.

[Spectator]

Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.

openaccount,

In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.

I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.

Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.

On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.

The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.

EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.

I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.

At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.

[openaccount]

openaccount,

In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.

I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.

Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.

On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.

The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.

EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.

I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.

At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

[sbhagwat2000]

Can someone please clarify how to read the inventory data. Do the increase in the applications for the years before 2007 which are porting applications from the last inventory include all months from May to October or are they only from May 3rd to the end of May when dates became U. So for example is the increase from ~ 200 applications in the last inventory for 2004 to 450 now reflect all applications (interfiling letters) from May to october? Also are these all applications pending or only primary applicant applications?

[DonDron]

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?

[goforgreen]

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

FY 2012 started at Apr 2007 and finished with U. Also with 3-5K SO and 2800 of quota I dont think it will end at Apr 2007. Q and other Gurus who have done number crunching have been maintaining it will be much later than that and into 2008, I hope that prediction turns true. Remember till Apr 2007 was already cleared in 2011. And in 2013 all SO will be first used by India as China will move with their own quota.

[Spectator]

Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?

DonDron,

I was talking about CO's best case of 13k in total (SOFAD) for EB2-IC - not spillover of 13k.

That translates to 7.4k spillover.

[DonDron]

Ok. Still better than 3-5k. So best case scenario (and with straight assumptions) comes down to early 2008 for EB2-I. Which is what CO had said. So nothing new I am saying I guess.

[qesehmk]

Friends - November donations made to Red Cross towards victims of Sandy. Thread updated - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3382#post3382

[justvisiting]

The June peak for EB2 Worldwide coincides with the last month before it retrogressed. I think what happened is a lot of applicants/lawyers moved quickly on NIW applications to make sure they got in before retrogression. This should even out going forward. The current PERM trends do not support such a high level of EB2-WW going forward, and there aren't that many NIW cases either.

[pspa80]

Hello folks,

The prospects for hiring seem to be duller than last year (at least at this point in time) with the fiscal cliff looming on one side and obamacare/divided government etc on the other side.

Do you think there is a possibility that the amount of Spill Over to EB2I can be greater than anticipated if hiring slows down because of the aformentioned factors?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...010_4_2012.pdf