tanu,Originally Posted by tanu_75
I'm taking the very simplistic view that an approval before PD 2007 is an "upgrade".
I know some 2007 PDs are definitely "upgrades" but some of the pre 2007 PD are probably longstanding "straight" cases.
I don't intend to analyze it further than that.
Currently, about 46% of approved cases in the Tracker have a PD earlier than 2007. On that basis about 1.0 - 1.2k are "upgrades".
Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2013 at 01:13 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
vizcard,
It would be higher than seen in the last couple of years, but it would be possible.
I calculate 10k / month currently, but that may reduce, since to date, EB2-I approvals have been pretty much to the exclusion of all other approvals (at least on Trackitt).
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB Inventory Data just released by USCIS as of 07/17/2013 - shows not much has changed since the last time they released this in April... thoughts?
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...07-17-2013.pdf
Hi Spec,
I thought taking a look at receipt date might help.
Approvals classified into Receipt Date:
2012 - 36
2011 - 48
2008 - 2
2007 (Aug - Dec) - 24
2007 (Jan - Jul) - 32
2006 - 1
2005 - 2
2004 - 1
Most of the pre-Aug 2007 cases would be EB3-EB2 porting (Interfile). This translates to 36 out of the total 142 approved cases so far on trackit.
Thus the porting cases have so far utilized 25% and the direct cases have 75% utilization.
When you asked for porting cases (EB3-EB2), the above data only points of interfilers. If there is someone who filed new perm and then ported the date then those people are not accounted as porters in the above calculation. This is because their receipt date can be as late as 2012 and thus we cannot distinguish them.
NSC all the way
Jan Apr Jul
1. EB1I --> 2.7k 2.2k 2k
2. EB2(ROW) --> 13k 10k 7k
This data is compiled as of July 17, 2013 and therefore looks like EB2(ROW) approvals are lesser recently as demand is receding.
We can expect some additional spillover from there.
That's my first impression too - likely additional spillover from EB1 and EB2-WW. But maybe there's other interpretations as well? Also, the timing of this release (today) is rather curious ... almost certainly a precursor to the final bulletin of the year.
rferni,
Thanks for the heads up.
That's an out of cycle release.
I hope that doesn't mean we are not going to get the October figures.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My PD is JUL 31 2007 EB2I. 485 receipt date is 11/30/2011. I called USCIS today. The officer told me that my case has not been pre-adjudicated yet. Given the current situation, having not pre-adjudicated yet means anything negative probably to me? anything I should/can do about this?
Did you receive a RFE for an EVL in June 2013 (or any RFEs along the way)?
yes , received RFE on 06/14 like most of the folks. Currently in state " RFE Response in review"
Kumar I have called USCIS few times too and I was told mine is pending . I think end of the day it is just a matter of them picking your file and if all good asking for a visa # completing adjudication . However there is definitely a small risk of RFE if you already did not get one earlier in 2012 . In my case i asked a few times if it is preadjudicated and it was neither confirmed nor denied .
EB-2 Ind- PD - Dec 07 ( Derivative- primary 485 approved ) ; 485 Applied- Dec 10 2011; Rcvd - Dec 14th 2011; EAD Received - Jan 2012 ; 485 Case x-fer from TSC to NSC : March 2012; 485 RFE Received : April 2012 ; 485 RFE Response Review status : May 2012 ; 485 Address Change : April 2013 ; 485 Online status change: Initial Review April 2013 ; 485 Approval : Aug 20 , 2013 ;
received RFE on 06/14. My attorney Replied on 07/16. I have been told to wait until 60days from RFE response received date.
Another important thing to be noted from the inventory is that the Jan, Feb and Mar pending application for the 2008 are on lower side. Thus with even lessere spillover, the chances of dates moving to at least 01 Apr 2008 are pretty good.
Also EB2 (WW) and EB1I look like consuming lesser visas and thus we can hope for some relief.
Spec,
Can it be possible that the purpose of creating this data is to help CO to figure out the forward movement for Sept bulletin. A month-by-month split is surely more helpful to predict the date movement for Sept bulletin.
There might not be a need to publish this but if they had already created it then they might have thought that better publish the data.
Jagan,
It's not very helpful in that respect IMO, because with a date in July 2013, none of the "upgrades" absent from the Demand Data calculation would be shown as EB2 in the Inventory either. Those cases will never show in the DD, unless they remain unapproved after the dates retrogress again. If they are adjudicated while the PD is Current, they'll just be approved.
That is the only data that would help CO set a better COD.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-08-2013 at 04:32 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
the user with PD June 2008 just updated in trackitt that he received his gc in hand and one of other user from some other blog confirmed he received his gc in hand with may 2008 pd does this mean anything or just random cases. both EB2 I
I also saw the same update...
They are maintaining a google spreadsheet and that actually shows that 3 people with PDs after Jan 1 2008 have gotten their GC.
16th Jan 2008
12th Mar 2008
15th June 2008
I do find those cases odd.
The Trackitt member received notification of the approval on August 3. I don't think even CO himself would know the likely COD at that point, let alone communicate it to anyone in USCIS.
I hope for those people that the movement does cover their dates, but I'm not terribly optimistic. I can't see EB2-I receiving around 23k visas this year, which overall is the amount I think is needed for all cases to be approved. Even allowing for people "left behind" to give actual approvals needed, I think it is a stretch, unless an awful lot of people are going to be disappointed.
Only very low use by EB1 may make it possible. The USCIS Inventory suggests there is not a lack of EB1 cases in the pipeline.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Your response is precise and the scenario that you are talking about is the best numbers that CO would like to see before moving dates. I agree with you explanation.
However, I was thinking that DoS only releases yearly data in DD and USCIS releases monthly info in Inventory. Hence, CO might get slightly better idea using the Inventory.
For example, of the 16000 cases in 2008 there might be 1250 in each month (exact distribution) or 5000 each in Jan,Feb,Mar and 1000 in rest of the year. This distribution pattern is what can be figured out with Inventory.
I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.
Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.
Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!
For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!
Congratulationssssss. Longwait ur Looooongwait is over now...
longwait,
Congratulations!!
Jagan has already used the obvious punch line - I won't repeat it.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I see what you are saying.
The Demand Data is just a summary of the information in IVAMS. At a detail level, it can go down as far as individual cases.
When EB3-C tried to sue DOS, a sample report was released that showed EB3 by Retrogressed Country (or ROW) by Priority Date.
So CO already has the information for preadjudicated cases.
It could also be deduced that Jan-Mar 2008 would be lighter - a Cut Off Date of 15MAR08 was in effect for a month longer than other dates in 2008 in FY2012.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Congrats Longwait, Happy to see your approval. Looking forward to see your next post with your Spouse's approval.
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