All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

[indiani]

"Indiani I feel like tera number bi jaroor ayega aur jald hi ayega"

LOL... best line of the day

Congrats sam and enjoy the moment, I think there are few things in life we don't have to wait this long,

few things in life that we are more in control and happens much less timeframe than GC:

getting Degree (including medical degree)
saving enough to buy a house ( most of us did)
having a child
perhaps becoming an astronaut and going to space ( if we want to and can afford)

only thing not on the list is "one way trip to mars "

[MATT2012]

sam96_77,

Congrats, Nice to see more approvals coming in. Looking forward to see many more posts from you.

[Spectator]

The latest update.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 407

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22
Number ---- 20 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 32 - 42 - 27 - 33 - 11 -- 0 - 36 - 24 - 15 - 30 -- 9 - 11 -- 0 - 37 -- 5 - 12 -- 1


Service Center

Nebraska - 202 -- 49.63%
Texas ---- 204 -- 50.12%
California - 1 --- 0.25%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 407 - 100.00%


Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 20 ---- 3 ----- 23
2005 --- 40 ---- 5 ----- 45
2006 --- 56 ---- 5 ----- 61
2007 -- 276 ---- 1 ---- 277
2008 ---- 1 ---- 0 ------ 1

Total - 393 --- 14 ---- 407


Pre 2007 PD - 129 -- 31.70%
2007 PD ----- 277 -- 68.06%
2008 PD ------- 1 --- 0.24%

Total ------- 407 - 100.00%


Roughly, I believe that equates to approx 6.0 - 7.2k approvals in August, depending on the conversion ratio used .

Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

[JosephM]

I sincerely pray that "Indiani" gets his Green card soon. This forum will be delighted to see that soon.

[SsSkNiNa]

We have got the approval email today.

Details: TSC | PD - Oct 2007 | EAD - Jan 2012 | RFE - June 14th | RFE Response - July 1st | Approved today

This blog has been very informative and supportive since the dates became current. Thanks for all the support.

[Jagan01]

The latest update.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 407

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22
Number ---- 20 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 32 - 42 - 27 - 33 - 11 -- 0 - 36 - 24 - 15 - 30 -- 9 - 11 -- 0 - 37 -- 5 - 12 -- 1


Service Center

Nebraska - 202 -- 49.63%
Texas ---- 204 -- 50.12%
California - 1 --- 0.25%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 407 - 100.00%


Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 20 ---- 3 ----- 23
2005 --- 40 ---- 5 ----- 45
2006 --- 56 ---- 5 ----- 61
2007 -- 276 ---- 1 ---- 277
2008 ---- 1 ---- 0 ------ 1

Total - 393 --- 14 ---- 407


Pre 2007 PD - 129 -- 31.70%
2007 PD ----- 277 -- 68.06%
2008 PD ------- 1 --- 0.24%

Total ------- 407 - 100.00%


Roughly, I believe that equates to approx 6.0 - 7.2k approvals in August, depending on the conversion ratio used .

Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

Spec,
thanks a lot for the update. I notice that your updates are so organized and you have the patience to keep doing this consistently. Appreciate it.

From your update it looks like there are anywhere around 6k-7k approvals. I do not understand why people are saying that USCIS might not be able to process applications, etc.

The COD was Jan 01, 2008 for Aug and that translated to 8050 pending applications. This means that the maximum number of applications that USCIS could have processed in Aug was 8050 and they seem to be pretty much on target as they have completed approximately 6.5k already. This is the 16th working day out of the 22 working days (I am only counting mon-fri). This translates to 72% working days and in that they have completed 80% of applications. Statistically they are ahead of time and may be they run out of cases before end of next week.

This is also good news for all those who are waiting with PDs prior to Jan 1, 2008 as most have chances to be greened.

[Niksammy]

Spec,
thanks a lot for the update. I notice that your updates are so organized and you have the patience to keep doing this consistently. Appreciate it.

From your update it looks like there are anywhere around 6k-7k approvals. I do not understand why people are saying that USCIS might not be able to process applications, etc.

The COD was Jan 01, 2008 for Aug and that translated to 8050 pending applications. This means that the maximum number of applications that USCIS could have processed in Aug was 8050 and they seem to be pretty much on target as they have completed approximately 6.5k already. This is the 16th working day out of the 22 working days (I am only counting mon-fri). This translates to 72% working days and in that they have completed 80% of applications. Statistically they are ahead of time and may be they run out of cases before end of next week.

This is also good news for all those who are waiting with PDs prior to Jan 1, 2008 as most have chances to be greened.

You need to add approximately 4000-5000 to the 8050 number prior to Jan 1, 2008 to include porters who were not part of the demand data (who ported after May 2012 when dates retrogressed).

[sandyn16]

What is the difference between I485 supervisor and officer? In some updates it is mentioned "going to be assigned to officer".

I got update from congressmen saying

" A request has been sent to the I485 supervisor for the files .. to be reviewed and your constituents should receive a decision or notice of other action in 30 days"

Is supervisor any different from officer? This seems more like a standard generic response.

[Jagan01]

You need to add approximately 4000-5000 to the 8050 number prior to Jan 1, 2008 to include porters who were not part of the demand data (who ported after May 2012 when dates retrogressed).

The 8050 demand is as of July 2013. The includes all possible porters that could have ported prior to July 2013.

the people who became current in Aug 2013 and applying EAD first time are anyways not going to get GC before Oct so those do not need to be counted. Hence the demand is 8050, no more and no less.

[Pedro Gonzales]

The 8050 demand is as of July 2013. The includes all possible porters that could have ported prior to July 2013.

the people who became current in Aug 2013 are anyways not going to get GC before Oct so those do not need to be counted. Hence the demand is 8050, no more and no less.

That is not correct, Jagan. Someone who has applied for an EB3 I485 (so pre July 2007 PD) and has interfiled with his EB2I140 prior to Aug 1, 2013 will not be counted in demand until then, and at that point he will just get his green card, so he won't be in the demand data at all.

Only people who became current in Aug 2013 with a PD of pre July 2007 are the only ones who will not get their GC this FY.

Niksammy is right, you need to add the porters with PD before July 2007 to that 8050. I think 4,000 to 5,000 is on the high side (because about 3,000 would already have got their green cards on a monthly basis), but it is not an unreasonable number.

[Jagan01]

That is not correct, Jagan. Someone who has applied for an EB3 I485 (so pre July 2007 PD) and has interfiled with his EB2I140 prior to Aug 1, 2013 will not be counted in demand until then, and at that point he will just get his green card, so he won't be in the demand data at all.

Only people who became current in Aug 2013 with a PD of pre July 2007 are the only ones who will not get their GC this FY.

Niksammy is right, you need to add the porters with PD before July 2007 to that 8050. I think 4,000 to 5,000 is on the high side (because about 3,000 would already have got their green cards on a monthly basis), but it is not an unreasonable number.

Agreed. I stand corrected as I missed out the EB3 - EB2 interfillers. Hopefully no visas are wasted eventually but after factoring in the 4000 possible porters it looks like they need to pick up speed to use up all the visa numbers.

I am assuming that CO moved the dates considering the demand + porting (interfilers that filed in first 10 days of Aug). And further he moved it in Sept by 6 months. If he has made the necessary calculations and moved the sep date then surely there are a lot more visas available and they need to process faster.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I did a deep dive into that thread on trackitt listing people still waiting, and here is my summary.

Of the 2007 PDs, only 3 out of 42 (7%) waiting are NSC applicants, the rest are all TSC.
Of the 2006 PDs, only 1 out of 11 (9%) are NSC applicants.
Of the 2005 PDs, 5 out of 15 (33%) are NSC applicants.
Of the 2004 PDs, 0 out of 7 are NSC applicants.

Given Spec's figure above showing that TSC and NSC are approving the same number of applications every day, but TSC has far more open applications left than NSC; we can conclude that 1) TSC has a much larger load than NSC, and perhaps b) the July RFEs are slowing down TSC.

Also interesting, Spec shows 31% of approvals being pre-2007, whereas my numbers show that 44% of remaining applications are pre-2007. Conclusion: both centers appear to be approving 2007 applicants at the expense of porters. That much is at least clearly visible with NSC, where 67% of the remaining applicants are pre-2007 PDs.

[Spectator]

I did a deep dive into that thread on trackitt listing people still waiting, and here is my summary.

Of the 2007 PDs, only 3 out of 42 (7%) waiting are NSC applicants, the rest are all TSC.
Of the 2006 PDs, only 1 out of 11 (9%) are NSC applicants.
Of the 2005 PDs, 5 out of 15 (33%) are NSC applicants.
Of the 2004 PDs, 0 out of 7 are NSC applicants.

Given Spec's figure above showing that TSC and NSC are approving the same number of applications every day, but TSC has far more open applications left than NSC; we can conclude that 1) TSC has a much larger load than NSC, and perhaps b) the July RFEs are slowing down TSC.

Also interesting, Spec shows 31% of approvals being pre-2007, whereas my numbers show that 44% of remaining applications are pre-2007. Conclusion: both centers appear to be approving 2007 applicants at the expense of porters. That much is at least clearly visible with NSC, where 67% of the remaining applicants are pre-2007 PDs.

Pedro,

I won't comment about your figures because I have not had a look myself.

The final paragraph assumes that all years are equally represented on Trackitt. I don't think that is necessarily true.

2007 PDs appear to have a larger % representation on Trackitt than earlier EB2 years and that those years are in turn higher than EB3, where a number of porting cases were originally shown on Trackitt.

If so, 2007 PDs need a larger number of Trackitt cases approved than earlier years to represent the same "real" number.

It's another complication to potentially deal with.

[Pedro Gonzales]

The latest update.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 407

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22
Number ---- 20 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 32 - 42 - 27 - 33 - 11 -- 0 - 36 - 24 - 15 - 30 -- 9 - 11 -- 0 - 37 -- 5 - 12 -- 1

There are now 27 approvals on trackitt today (based on the thread, not tracker). I wonder how that compares to other days thread count (as against the tracker count). Indiani have you been keeping track of that?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

I won't comment about your figures because I have not had a look myself.

The final paragraph assumes that all years are equally represented on Trackitt. I don't think that is necessarily true.

2007 PDs appear to have a larger % representation on Trackitt than earlier EB2 years and that those years are in turn higher than EB3, where a number of porting cases were originally shown on Trackitt.

If so, 2007 PDs need a larger number of Trackitt cases approved than earlier years to represent the same "real" number.

It's another complication to potentially deal with.

It's never good to arrive at a conclusion from two different sets of data but I'm going to stand by my take-aways. I believe that a) NSC is focusing on the the low hanging fruit that are direct EB2 cases at the detriment of porters (I can't think of a good reason for that, perhaps the longer gap since they had their last IBIS check done), b) they are close to done with their August load, not having to deal with the RFEs that TSC did, and c) they will be able to get to their September load immediately without the August overhang, so they may well clear their shelves before the end of September.

Self-serving conclusions, absolutely

[indiani]

The 8050 demand is as of July 2013. The includes all possible porters that could have ported prior to July 2013.

the people who became current in Aug 2013 and applying EAD first time are anyways not going to get GC before Oct so those do not need to be counted. Hence the demand is 8050, no more and no less.

I initially thought total demand is 8k, until spec pointed out that inter filers aren't included in DD so the actual demand is 12-13K for august , only about 50-60% of it is approved so far

[indiani]

The latest update.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 407

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22
Number ---- 20 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 32 - 42 - 27 - 33 - 11 -- 0 - 36 - 24 - 15 - 30 -- 9 - 11 -- 0 - 37 -- 5 - 12 -- 1


Service Center

Nebraska - 202 -- 49.63%
Texas ---- 204 -- 50.12%
California - 1 --- 0.25%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 407 - 100.00%


Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 20 ---- 3 ----- 23
2005 --- 40 ---- 5 ----- 45
2006 --- 56 ---- 5 ----- 61
2007 -- 276 ---- 1 ---- 277
2008 ---- 1 ---- 0 ------ 1

Total - 393 --- 14 ---- 407


Pre 2007 PD - 129 -- 31.70%
2007 PD ----- 277 -- 68.06%
2008 PD ------- 1 --- 0.24%

Total ------- 407 - 100.00%


Roughly, I believe that equates to approx 6.0 - 7.2k approvals in August, depending on the conversion ratio used .

Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

Spec,

There are only 69 cases in the forum post on trackitt "still waiting tracker", even though I think all the pending cases would not have made it on that list,

there is a significant portion who are never updating even though when I read the posts after clicking unapproved profile , they clearly posted that they got greened and some have never visited trackitt in more than a year, in the nerve wrecking season , I highly doubt there are significant number of people who are pending and not actively blogging on trackitt.

The take away point I am trying to make is they might have set a target of finishing all the cases assigned to the officers and they might get close to it, i.e. finishing 9-10K ( I remember you calculating number as 9.2k).

[Spectator]

Spec,

There are only 69 cases in the forum post on trackitt "waiting list" , even though I think all the pending cases would not have made it on that list, even if we assume half of them did, that amounts to about 140 cases unapproved that's left of trackitt, overall I think the approvals might be slightly higher than 7.2K ( just hoping ) as there is a significant portion who are never updated even though when I read the posts after clicking unapproved profile , they clearly posted that they got greened and some have never visited trackitt in more than a year, in the nerve wrecking season < I highly doubt there is someone who is pending and not actively blogging on trackitt.

The take away point I am trying to make is they might have set a target of finishing all the cases assigned to the officers and they might get close to it, i.e. finishing 9-10K ( I remember you calculating number as 9.2k).

Which "waiting list" are you referring to? Please post the link.

That it represents 50% is a huge assumption.

I cannot work out the time period you are referring to.

More people have their case on Trackitt than ever participate in the discussions.

These posts shows how many unapproved cases remain just from those cases added to Trackitt since October 2011. I have every name associated with those numbers.

Even allowing for a large number not updating and recent additions, the number is going to be substantially more than 140, even just for 2007 PDs.

Allowing for already approved cases, 140 to be updated would represent a 50% update rate on 2007 PD cases added since October 2011 and excluding any cases added in August. I can well believe that less than the historic 80% are updating their cases, but that is still a stretch IMHO. If it were true, then c. 6k 2007 PD cases have already been approved in August.

[indiani]

Which "waiting list" are you referring to? Please post the link.

That it represents 50% is a huge assumption.

I cannot work out the time period you are referring to.

More people have their case on Trackitt than ever participate in the discussions.

These posts shows how many unapproved cases remain just from those cases added to Trackitt since October 2011. I have every name associated with those numbers.

Even allowing for a large number not updating and recent additions, the number is going to be substantially more than 140, even just for 2007 PDs.

Allowing for already approved cases, 140 to be updated would represent a 50% update rate on 2007 PD cases added since October 2011 and excluding any cases added in August. I can well believe that less than the historic 80% are updating their cases, but that is still a stretch IMHO. If it were true, then c. 6k 2007 PD cases have already been approved in August.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...tracker/page/7

still waiting tracker ( was the title of the post), its hard to make a conversion rate from this number but

for me to depend on the trackitt approval rate has been frustrating as I followed the last 5 approvals messages and even after several hours not even single one entered their approval on trackitt.

[indiani]

spec,
I have edited my previous post after reading your answer as I am convinced now that the trackitt cases left out are far more than 140 .

The point I was trying to make is that the actual pending cases that are seen on tracker aren't true representation as several cases are not being updated after approval.

[indiani]

Nov/ Dec 2007 PD's EB2I on trackitt
approx. 135 approved
approx.. 143 pending

assuming some haven't updated (approx. 20%)

slightly more than 50% of late PD's are approved so far and only 8 days left ( including Saturdays).

if 50% approved in 19 days , may be another 25% will be approved in the next 8 days and hopefully another 10% approved in September, overall 15% might be left over.

[Spectator]

spec,
I have edited my previous post after reading your answer as I am convinced now that the trackitt cases left out are far more than 140 .

The point I was trying to make is that the actual pending cases that are seen on tracker aren't true representation as several cases are not being updated after approval.

indiani,

I totally agree. I don't think anyone would argue that point.

I think the question is, what is the current level that do not update their case?

I have a suspicion it is no longer the historical 80%, but it's difficult to quantify the number until after the event.

About 10% of 2007 PD cases appear to be on Trackitt (which is far higher than any other year). If you are using a 6% conversion ratio then that equates to assuming 40% do not update their case. 7% = 30% etc

I have a good feeling you will see your approval before the end of August.

PS Thanks for the link - the thread must have been way down the list last night - I see it nearer the top and obvious this morning!

[Spectator]

Someone, I think it might have been Pedro, commented on the different strategies at the SC and which PD years were being approved.

I've pulled out those figures for August to date, in case anyone finds them of interest.


PD ------ NSC --- TSC --- CSC --- VSC --- Total ---- %
2004 ----- 17 ----- 9 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 26 --- 6.05%
2005 ----- 28 ---- 17 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 45 -- 10.47%
2006 ----- 41 ---- 20 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 61 -- 14.19%
2007 ---- 118 --- 178 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 297 -- 69.07%
2008 ------ 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 1 --- 0.23%
Total --- 204 --- 225 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 430 - 100.00%

[Pedro Gonzales]

So yesterdays' trackitt approvals according to the thread (not tracker) was about 35, but that includes a few dependents and a few 'friends', so i'd drop that figure to a more pure 31. The first 3 profiles that i looked at hadn't updated them yet. I wonder if people are waiting to receive the actual card before updating the tracker.

And today there have already been some brisk approvals. 5 I think so far.

[JosephM]

Is there any progress for those who filed first time I 485 in Aug 2013 ? I see that some of them got FP appointments and some have done early walk-in. Anything beyond that?