All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

[Jagan01]

CO is intentionally delaying VB release as he wants to monitor new porting applications(new interfiling applications not in DD). He did that once in past(June2011 VB released on May11 2011).

Jun2011VB: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulle...
Notes From Jun11 VB:
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. --Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand--".

The above is from a user on trackitt... It might answer ur question....

Forgot to add that this would mean that CO is monitoring the porting demand since he has done it in the past and released the bulletin late.

Unfortunately that translates to good news for few (the one who are already preadj and current this month) and bad news for most (the ones with PD after Jan 2008). If he sees considerably higher number of EB3-EB2 interfile applications then he might not advance the date much.

All I am hoping for is that al the visas get USED. I hope is not looking at the first week applications and projecting that if 2000 applied in week 1 then 8000 will apply in the month of Aug. Because technically everyone who is current has applied by now and it all depends on how the CO sees it.

[Jagan01]

VB used to be released few years ago on the 14th, later 13th and only recently 9th or even 8th. so I think waiting till Monday is not only a smart move but helps earlier PD's not left behind again by making decisions with more accurate data.

Indiani,

As I mentioned it is bad news for most people. It might be good for people who are current today and I totally am with you on the part that earlier PDs should get GC first.

All that I am against is the wastage of visas. There should not be any wastage while trying to be more accurate and I have explained in my previous post that most people would have applied in the first week making the CO think that there is huge demand.

Anyways, Monday is not that far

Have a nice weekend everyone...

[pdmay2008]

Indiani,

As I mentioned it is bad news for most people. It might be good for people who are current today and I totally am with you on the part that earlier PDs should get GC first.

All that I am against is the wastage of visas. There should not be any wastage while trying to be more accurate and I have explained in my previous post that most people would have applied in the first week making the CO think that there is huge demand.

Anyways, Monday is not that far

Have a nice weekend everyone...

I am not quite sure how much more data points he gets between Friday morning and Monday morning for interfiling requests for porting.

[seattlet]

I am not quite sure how much more data points he gets between Friday morning and Monday morning for interfiling requests for porting.

It might be about other categories as Spec mentioned and not about EB2 (I). Anyways my perception is that dates were artificially held at Sep 2004 for India for 10 months for some reason.
I cannot believe that there were exactly 280 cases per month with demand prior to Sep 2004. Either there should have been more cases or less cases depending on the demand which should have either moved dates ahead or retrogressed further.

I believe the movement to Jan 2008 was one of the occurrences where CO used Math to come up with cut off dates (since it matches roughly with the predictions posted on the forum)
His instinct based decisions (due to lack of data) have been well documented in the past. there can be more of them in Sep bulletin - not in EB2 I category but in others (F2A for example)

[indiani]

updateing previous post:
24 primary+2 dependent trackitt approvals today ( TSC performing well )

As there could be some more entries later today . I think today is an average approval day with some asuurance that TSC is trying to catch up.

yesterday 154 (primary)+ 24 = 178 ( this could actually be higher as everyone did not update tracker yet)

considering 6% are primary applicants (using Matt's figure) : Total 2966

working days so far 7 ( TSC closed for Monday for working on Saturday)

approvals per day : 423

15 more working days this month and potential approvals: Total 6357

[iblveicanget]

Delay in VB makes me beleive that there might be some movement! Had CO already decided not to move any dates then he might ve released it. I am pretty sure there is a final number crunching going on to make it as accurate as possible. Do any of you feel this way?

[wolverine82]

Delay in VB makes me beleive that there might be some movement! Had CO already decided not to move any dates then he might ve released it. I am pretty sure there is a final number crunching going on to make it as accurate as possible. Do any of you feel this way?

But what I am curious is that it was discussed that he would have decided it by 5 or 6th only and if not also unless the service centers are working on weekend (last weekend TSC worked but literally didn't work on Monday which was more like compensation) what is he planning to achieve on the weekend.

[justvisiting]

But what I am curious is that it was discussed that he would have decided it by 5 or 6th only and if not also unless the service centers are working on weekend (last weekend TSC worked but literally didn't work on Monday which was more like compensation) what is he planning to achieve on the weekend.

FWIW, TSC is working today. Approvals already showing up on trackitt.

[indiani]

FWIW, TSC is working today. Approvals already showing up on trackitt.

Yes. as expected, at the end of the day about 23( average) primary approvals+ dependents will be there.

All TSC applicants wait for magic text and make sure you post here once you get it.

[ggk189]

But what I am curious is that it was discussed that he would have decided it by 5 or 6th only and if not also unless the service centers are working on weekend (last weekend TSC worked but literally didn't work on Monday which was more like compensation) what is he planning to achieve on the weekend.

He would be waiting for final spillover number to be given to him by USCIS for final bulletin that is the contingency. Not that it should make much difference from his pre set date in mind, but for numerical representation of the same in bulletin it is required.

[willywonka]

Guys, when you say TSC is working today, do you mean that the adjudicating officers are literally working on a Saturday ?
Or could it be that cases that are assigned a visa number and approved are placed on an automated FIFO queue from where cases are picked for card production...and the CPOs we are seeing on Saturdays can possibly be cases that were approved on Fridays ? Just wondering...

[indiani]

Guys, when you say TSC is working today, do you mean that the adjudicating officers are literally working on a Saturday ?
Or could it be that cases that are assigned a visa number and approved are placed on an automated FIFO queue from where cases are picked for card production...and the CPOs we are seeing on Saturdays can possibly be cases that were approved on Fridays ? Just wondering...

They are "literally" working on saturday, thats why they don't work on moday

[wolverine82]

Looks like both guys who got their PD approved with May and June 2008 EB2I were false alarms. one basically didn't check his PD as he had an old Aug 2006 PD and for the other person with June PD the USCIS was showing his PD as sep 2007 hence it was approved(uscis error) ,so looks like these both were not anomaly cases to begin with.

[Spectator]

Looks like both guys who got their PD approved with May and June 2008 EB2I were false alarms. one basically didn't check his PD as he had an old Aug 2006 PD and for the other person with June PD the USCIS was showing his PD as sep 2007 hence it was approved(uscis error) ,so looks like these both were not anomaly cases to begin with.

wolverine,

Thanks for the update.

The June 2008 PD person now has to make sure USCIS reinstate everything the way it was before the erroneous approval. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

[wolverine82]

wolverine,

Thanks for the update.

The June 2008 PD person now has to make sure USCIS reinstate everything the way it was before the erroneous approval. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

Absolutely Spec agree with you I wouldn't want to be in his shoes..I was checking his posts in trackitt and he is literally at his wit's end as to what to do but i think some folks have asked him to first talk to lawyer and also take infopass and let USCIS know so that they can resolve it for him..

I had my own selfish reasons to track them as I am Apr 4 2008 PD and don't know if my date(based on predictions and delay in release of VB chances are really bleak) will be current as I missed filing the I-485 last time.

[Spectator]

Absolutely Spec agree with you I wouldn't want to be in his shoes..I was checking his posts in trackitt and he is literally at his wit's end as to what to do but i think some folks have asked him to first talk to lawyer and also take infopass and let USCIS know so that they can resolve it for him..

I had my own selfish reasons to track them as I am Apr 4 2008 PD and don't know if my date(based on predictions and delay in release of VB chances are really bleak) will be current as I missed filing the I-485 last time.

wolverine,

Whatever your motives, I'd still like to thank you for so diligently following the cases. I had missed the Trackitt comment where N170091 had given the news.

I did notice they had put the approval in the Trackitt I-485 tracker last night and that it had been put back to pending this morning.

Best of luck for your PD becoming Current.

[Spectator]

The latest update on August approvals as I see them. Not a very productive Saturday for TSC judging by the updates to date.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 196

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10
Number ---- 19 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 28 - 38 - 17 - 25 -- 6


Service Center

Nebraska - 120 -- 61.22%
Texas ----- 75 -- 38.27%
California - 1 --- 0.51%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 196 - 100.00%


Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 13 ---- 2 ----- 15
2005 --- 24 ---- 5 ----- 29
2006 --- 31 ---- 2 ----- 33
2007 -- 119 ---- 0 ---- 119

Total - 187 ---- 9 ---- 196


Pre 2007 PD - 77 -- 39.29%
2007 PD ---- 119 -- 60.71%

Total ------ 196 - 100.00%


Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

[wolverine82]

Spec,

Will less # of approvals benefit in date movement i.e. forward or at this point it doesn't really matter as CO has already decided the date..

[indiani]

The latest update on August approvals as I see them. Not a very productive Saturday for TSC judging by the updates to date.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 196

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10
Number ---- 19 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 28 - 38 - 17 - 25 -- 6


Service Center

Nebraska - 120 -- 61.22%
Texas ----- 75 -- 38.27%
California - 1 --- 0.51%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 196 - 100.00%


Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 13 ---- 2 ----- 15
2005 --- 24 ---- 5 ----- 29
2006 --- 31 ---- 2 ----- 33
2007 -- 119 ---- 0 ---- 119

Total - 187 ---- 9 ---- 196


Pre 2007 PD - 77 -- 39.29%
2007 PD ---- 119 -- 60.71%

Total ------ 196 - 100.00%


Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

Spec,

What is your latest and closest estimate of percentage of primary applicants on trackitt, matt used 6% and I recall you mentioning something like 7%.
I am guessing as the information becomes more prevalent among Indians, that percentage could be slightly on the higher end.

[indiani]

moreover what is the estimate of inter filers based on approvals and trackitt info we have?

[vizcard]

Spec,

What is your latest and closest estimate of percentage of primary applicants on trackitt, matt used 6% and I recall you mentioning something like 7%.
I am guessing as the information becomes more prevalent among Indians, that percentage could be slightly on the higher end.

Based on Spec mentioned earlier, the 7% is not just primary applicants .. it includes dependents.

[Spectator]

Spec,

What is your latest and closest estimate of percentage of primary applicants on trackitt, matt used 6% and I recall you mentioning something like 7%.
I am guessing as the information becomes more prevalent among Indians, that percentage could be slightly on the higher end.

Trackitt doesn't even come close to mirroring the real world for primary/dependent ratios.

Therefore I do not count them in Trackitt and only use primary applicant approvals. I account for dependents when I convert Trackitt primary numbers to "real numbers".

[indiani]

Trackitt doesn't even come close to mirroring the real world for primary/dependent ratios.

Therefore I do not count them in Trackitt and only use primary applicant approvals. I account for dependents when I convert Trackitt primary numbers to "real numbers".

Sorry spec, i didnt mean ratio of primary/dependent.

I wanted to know if 6% of total primary applicants are there on trackitt ( best known estimate), for which I think Viz answered already that it is 6%.

[Spectator]

moreover what is the estimate of inter filers based on approvals and trackitt info we have?

I think converting Trackitt numbers to "real" numbers is as much an art as it is science. Everyone needs to use their own approach that they feel comfortable with.

I use different % for 2007 PD, 2008 PD (when they start) and for Pre 2007 PD approvals.

Currently, I see 200 EB2-I primary approvals in August.

To me, that converts to about 3.0k approvals in the "real" world. Of those, I have 1.5k with a pre 2007 PD and 1.5k with a 2007 PD.

There is still a mammoth backlog of cases on Trackitt still to be approved that are Current in August.

Quite apart from cases originally submitted earlier, there are over 500 cases submitted since October 2011 with a 2007 PD that remain unapproved.

In addition, more than 250 cases with PDs of 2003 - 2006 with a confirmed I-140 approval under EB2 remain pending. Many of the approvals to date with earlier PD have come from outside that list, so in reality it is probably much larger.

Even allowing for the fact that a sizable % of those Trackitt cases will never be updated with an approval, that is still a large number of cases still to be adjudicated.

Edit:- I have revisited the % I am using for PD2007 cases and amended it. The numbers above have changed as a result. PD 2007 cases seem to have a much higher Trackitt % than any other year.

[indiani]

Assuming 6% is the conversion ratio, so far 3266 total approvals are there which is not bad and hopefully almost everyone will get approval by sept 2nd week.
I hope that monday onwards the approvals will be at the maximum pace.
Congressional inquiries have become the norm rather than exception this time around.