All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

[Spectator]

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

[MATT2012]

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

[Spectator]

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section for people who do upate thee profile. I saw you made a polite request for people to do so.

[MATT2012]

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

Yes, it was indeed worth noting and in both the cases there were no written interfile requests, though in one case email request was sent.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Opening this thread for all those lucky folks who get 485 approvals :-)

[Kanmani]

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

I suspected the same when CPO emails were sent to few ( few in trackitt, we may not know how many exactly).

[bvsamrat]

June 2007 porter who has I-140 approved in Jan 2013 got CPO. I wonder if he had been listed in EB2 I DD at all . Appears to be a striaght forward case as all documents must be recent and in order.

Yes, it was indeed worth noting and in both the cases there were no written interfile requests, though in one case email request was sent.

[eb2visa]

One approval just posted with "02/01/2005" priority date on trackitt

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

[indiani]

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section for people who do upate thee profile. I saw you made a polite request for people to do so.

what percentage of total EB2I applicants are on trackitt, ( ? 10%) , as we can just use that to multiple the actual reported cases and get the approx number of approvals, moreover we might see a whole lot after work hours as many might be busy at work.

Is everyone who is getting approved getting email or text or both or just checking online?

[GCKnowHow]

So far 4 approvals in Trackitt. 3 are porting.

[Spectator]

what percentage of total EB2I applicants are on trackitt, ( ? 10%) , as we can just use that to multiple the actual reported cases and get the approx number of approvals, moreover we might see a whole lot after work hours as many might be busy at work.

Is everyone who is getting approved getting email or text or both or just checking online?

It fluctuates.

Last year, which is probably similar to this year, it was approved EB2-I cases in the Tracker represented 7.5% of the actual number approved.

In FY2011 the % was 4.9%.
In FY2010 the % was 6.8%.

As I've said before, the % that are porting cases that already have an I-485 may also make a difference, since the EB3-I % is nearer 5% from memory.

In my own calculations, I am using a combination of % between 5% and 9% depending on the PD year of the approved case.

[indiani]

It fluctuates.

Last year, which is probably similar to this year, it was approved EB2-I cases in the Tracker represented 7.5% of the actual number approved.

In FY2011 the % was 4.9%.
In FY2010 the % was 6.8%.

As I've said before, the % that are porting cases that already have an I-485 may also make a difference, since the EB3-I % is nearer 5% from memory.

In my own calculations, I am using a combination of % between 5% and 9% depending on the PD year of the approved case.

assuming 7%, so far about 20 got approved on trackitt, so approx 300 total.
By the end of the day I hope it will be atleast 40 on trackitt ( as many might update in the evening after work), so it will translate to 550+, that should clear all cases by the end of the month.

[indiani]

So far 4 approvals in Trackitt. 3 are porting.

it way beyond that TSC+NSC close to 20

[GCKnowHow]

it way beyond that TSC+NSC close to 20

Where do you see this info? I see only 6 in the tracker.

[indiani]

Where do you see this info? I see only 6 in the tracker.

not even half are updating the tracker, they are just posting in about a dozen threads scattered through out.
my estimation last time is about 20, as I mentioned before many might not have even posted as they might be at work.
at the end on tonight if we see 40 that will be a good sign.
that means almost 500-800 might be approved today.

moreover even after adjudication there is a lagtime of hour or so before the online status/emails are sent out, thats why some might even see at 6:30 EST or later or early tomorrow am.

so far encouraging signs

[willywonka]

I feel so happy for all those approvals. Indiani, I am rooting for you. Can't wait to see good news from you...

[indiani]

I feel so happy for all those approvals. Indiani, I am rooting for you. Can't wait to see good news from you...

Thanks, I wouldnt worry too much for atleast 1 week as long as the approvals keep flowing, if sept bulletin shows huge jump with quite a bit of left over from before jan 2008, then that might lead to a scenario of once again quite few unlucky left overs ahve to wait another year.

Until the approval email, there isnt anything guaranteed.

my estimation was 20-40 approvals per day on trackitt and it is within that margin so far at the lower end, also I predicted random approvals which seems to be the case.

On trackitt folks have tendency to post approvals rather than update on tracker as they could feel the excitement with all the "congrats" posts and there are more threads than total approvals today, so its not easy to keep count.

[MATT2012]

Thanks, I wouldnt worry too much for atleast 1 week as long as the approvals keep flowing, if sept bulletin shows huge jump with quite a bit of left over from before jan 2008, then that might lead to a scenario of once again quite few unlucky left overs ahve to wait another year.

Until the approval email, there isnt anything guaranteed.

my estimation was 20-40 approvals per day on trackitt and it is within that margin so far at the lower end, also I predicted random approvals which seems to be the case.

On trackitt folks have tendency to post approvals rather than update on tracker as they could feel the excitement with all the "congrats" posts and there are more threads than total approvals today, so its not easy to keep count.

As you mentioned many are not updating trackitt, if I am not wrong approval numbers in trackitt is somewhere between 25-30. Not great , but good start.

[indiani]

As you mentioned many are not updating trackitt, if I am not wrong approval numbers in trackitt is somewhere between 25-30. Not great , but good start.

I will put it close to 30 as even the thread with the "scoreboard" is not counting dependents. even without dependents its 24 ( my own count).

if we assume 5% are reporting then its 600 total approvals, on the other hand if we are conservative and assume 10% are reporting then its 300 ( still not bad).

assuming Saturday approvals , almost all the pending inventory including inter filers should clear off by end of august.

already the attorneys are sending reminder emails to uscis and soon after 1st week, there will be bombardment of phone calls and some congressional queries

addendum: the emails seem to be coming even now and the "scoreboard" without dependents seems to be 24, so the actual number might be well above 600, usually the approvals on 2nd or 3rd day will be peak, so I guess tomorrow we might see almost twice the approvals of today IMO, i.e 50 excluding dependents

[MATT2012]

I will put it close to 30 as even the thread with the "scoreboard" is not counting dependents. even without dependents its 24 ( my own count).

if we assume 5% are reporting then its 600 total approvals, on the other hand if we are conservative and assume 10% are reporting then its 300 ( still not bad).

assuming Saturday approvals , almost all the pending inventory including inter filers should clear off by end of august.

already the attorneys are sending reminder emails to uscis and soon after 1st week, there will be bombardment of phone calls and some congressional queries

Trackitt conversion ratios are based on approvals updated in trackitt I-485 tracker, every year there are cases who don't enter details in trackitt. We need much more approvals as we are expecting total approvals between 10-13K. I hope by next week the approvals will be high.

[indiani]

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

[vizcard]

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

Thats about 400 "real cases". i expect it will pick up but we are looking at ~3500 approvals by next Friday.

[Spectator]

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

It's been my observation that the number of approvals for a given day in the Tracker will take at least a week to register proper numbers, so don't despair at the lower than expected number.

The excitement of the moment after such a long period of retrogression seems to have made people forget to update their status, but around 80% will do so eventually.

[longwait100]

As per the trackitt "scoreboard" thread, Tsc+Nsc approvals for today totals 25. Assuming a primary:dependant ratio of 1:1 on a conservative side (the realistic ratio may be 1:1.25-1.5), the total primary+dependant approvals on trackitt for today is 50.

Again assuming trackitt represents 10% of the actual approvals, we can say that approx 500 cases were approved on the first day which doesn't seem too bad. As viz pointed out, the approval rate should pick up in the next couple of days, so we can expect at least 5000 cases getting approved by mid August.

[indiani]

As per the trackitt "scoreboard" thread, Tsc+Nsc approvals for today totals 25. Assuming a primary:dependant ratio of 1:1 on a conservative side (the realistic ratio may be 1:1.25-1.5), the total primary+dependant approvals on trackitt for today is 50.

Again assuming trackitt represents 10% of the actual approvals, we can say that approx 500 cases were approved on the first day which doesn't seem too bad. As viz pointed out, the approval rate should pick up in the next couple of days, so we can expect at least 5000 cases getting approved by mid August.

my assumptions are very close to yours, its fair to say almost everyone believes few hundred to almost 1000 might have been approved today with median being about 400 IMO.

That is fairly good outcome and 1st day usually is not the highest number , it will usually peak on 3rd day but as its a Saturday;
from Monday onwards fairly quickly the pace should pick up. after about 10 days we will be counting people who didn't get GC