Discussion of Bills that remove the Per Country Limits - H.R.3012, H,R. 213

[kd2008]

Like the earlier poster said, visas will be given on a first come, first serve basis. So if in a year India and China are 80% of the applications then they will get 80% of the visas and ROW be 20%. Right now even if India and China are 80% they get 7% each and then spillover if any remaining. Isn't this unfair to India and China? This unfairness is fixed by this bill.

Of course, ROW won't be current & retrogress because of this bill and they have to wait longer than before - but it will be still much less than India and China who wait over 5 yrs on average right now.

[manubhai]

Folks,
I urge you to vote in support of the bills and petitions.

As many have already stated, this forum is an amazing collection of people who are united behind a cause that effects them greatly. However, it is one thing for us to talk, and something else for us to take an action, however small it may be.

These bills and petitions you may have seen floating around in the last few days, if you choose to show your support for them, require a time "loss" of about 3-4 minutes (including registration or login and voting).

Please sleep 4 minutes late tonight and wake up at the usual time tomorrow to cover up the "loss". If half of the people who visit this board regularly do that, we'll get a good amount of attention to a very fair and just cause that truly does assist the US economy.

And a personal note on the difference between the bill (HR 3012) and the petitions - Please remember that the petitions cannot be converted into a law by a Presidential executive order. These petitions will require some congressman to put into a bill some time in the future. A "bill", like HR 3012, is already set in motion. I get that it has a long way to go, but its still less than something that might just ONLY get 6000 votes and will then need to start its long road ahead. Having 10-15 congressmen take note of HR 3012 because of your going to opencongress.org and spending 5 minutes writing will be a huge move forward.

The strength of HR 3012 is that it is something that is palatable to immigration hawks. It does NOT increase the number of green cards per year. It does NOT try to get more aliens to "steal" American jobs. It basically says one thing: First come, First served. (And anti-immigration media has already started labeling it as another job killer in the making)

Also note that non-Indians and non-Chinese are effected by this bill negatively and will try to oppose it. My only statement is that things are so unfair today and that the leveling of this playing field should not be considered as unfair by non-IC beneficiaries. Also, if both the immigration hawks AND non-IC beneficiaries are going to be opposing this, it is even more important for IC beneficiaries to show their support.

It is my opinion that this bill is the strongest and most "passable" bill we have seen in years. Its sponsors Jason Chaffetz and especially Lamar Smith are serious heavyweights in the Republican party. Given the breakdown and deadlocks in DC, having a real law passed to make wait times bearable is really a fantasy. This thing is the closest to fantasy we have.

The links for HR. 3012:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h3012/show
and here...
https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr3012

Please make sure you show your support on both of them, and write to your congressman via opencongress.

Thank you and Good luck!!

[manubhai]

This is the White House petition for supporting HR 3012: Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act.

The summary of this bill is: FIRST COME, FIRST SERVED - If your priority date is before mine, you should get your green card before I do, regardless of your or my country of origin.

Please sign the petition here: http://wh.gov/4d1

Please remember: At the end of the day, even if this bill does not pass, it is extremely important to bring to the attention of the people and the administration, the years of wait that some of us have to go through. Your vote on this petition and the bill, along with writing to your congressmen, could be the push that makes LEGAL immigration an urgent and important enough issue for people to consider more seriously.

I urge you to do your little part in this process by signing that petition.

You can also write to your congressmen:http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h3012/show

You can also show your support for HR 3012 by pressing the support button on POPVOX: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr3012

[longgcque]

done .. spread the word too on other forums and facebook ..

[manubhai]

done .. spread the word too on other forums and facebook ..

+1. Also spread on facebbok.

Thank you! I am trying what I can. I am thoroughly confused why this bill is not getting as much attention as it should in the Indian and Chinese community. Instead of an in-the-air fantasy petition that will have to be "pushed" by the white house, this is a real bill that already exists and has the support of - at least - two heavy weight congressmen (that too Republicans). I hope people take the time to read and recognize what this bill proposes.

[Kanmani]

Friends

When we look into the text of H.R.3012 Bill here..http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-1...12hr3012ih.pdf,

it speaks about the transition rules ( If the bill enacted ) for EB based in the years 2012, 13,14 ... how the visas should be split among ROW and backlogged countries........ After 2014 it is first come first serve

I think the house reps have already discussed abt moving forward with this bill....and has a good chance of passing in the House. But the Senate passage has no clue ......

I am hoping for the best.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Friends

When we look into the text of H.R.3012 Bill here..http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-1...12hr3012ih.pdf,

it speaks about the transition rules ( If the bill enacted ) for EB based in the years 2012, 13,14 ... how the visas should be split among ROW and backlogged countries........ After 2014 it is first come first serve

I think the house reps have already discussed abt moving forward with this bill....and has a good chance of passing in the House. But the Senate passage has no clue ......

I am hoping for the best.

Here's a quick summary of the bill.

a) It eliminates per country limits for EB by FY 2015, but it drastically increases it right away.
b) While the split of EB1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 does not change (40K each for EBs 1 through 3), for 2012, all but 15% is now open to all countries (6K reserved in each category, so 34K open; increasing to 36K in FY 2013 & FY2014).
c) That 6K (dropping to 4K in 2013 & 2014) is reserved for all countries other than India and China, whereas for the remaining 34K visa numbers, all countries can compete based on PDs (its basically India and China for at least FY2012 and probably most of FY 2013 too since the others are all current right now).
d) There is also a limit of 28K (28,028) per country, that may or may not apply for EB2 India in the first few years. I wasn't able to tell based on the analysis Spec & Q and others have done what the split is between India and China post July 2007.
e) The biggest winners will be EB3 India (should move to Sep 2004), EB2 I & China (should move to Sep 2009) and to a lesser extent EB3 China, Mexico and Phillipines (should catch up with EB3 ROW and move to around Sep 2005) all by the end of FY 2012. The biggest losers would be EB2 ROW which will retrogress to around Sep 2009.

Here's the fundamentals of my analysis for EB2. EB2 I & C will now have 34K of available visa numbers + 20K of estimated spillover falls down (will be lower than previous estimates because there will no longer be EB2 ROW FA; Q estimates in the first post of this thread that 22.6K of EB1 + EB5 FD came to EB2 I & C last year, i assumed a slight discount to that in FY 2012) to provide 54K visa numbers for EB2 I & C.
Using Spec's sheet (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011) and his assumptions of 8.1K backlog, 1.5K left over applicants from FY 2011 (pre April 2007) and 3K porters (midway of his range), we get to the bottom of his chart (Jan 2009) having used up only 49.5K visa numbers. It looks from the bottom of that chart that we are looking at roughly 500 applicants per month, so the remaining 4.5K available visa numbers (54 - 49.5) should move us another 9 months to Sep/Oct 2009.

Even without spillover, this bill would permit 8.5K of movement per quarter, allowing movement to Sep 07 by Q2, Jan 08 in Q3, and May 08 by Q4. Nothing but good news if this bill becomes law. Something to keep our eye on.

Kanmani, i'm nominating you our legislative process coordinator. Please keep us informed as and when you find out more.

[manubhai]

... Still, sure you agree that it is nowhere near as unfair as per country limits, which discriminate based on nationality, while this tries to discriminate based on qualifications...

Completely agree. It makes no sense to delay interim benefits to EB folks. The need for the GC job is right now, not 5 years later on. EB should be more about the need for the job being filled, not about diversity. There is GC lottery for diversity where India and China can't apply, as well as FB is always there for diversity.

Pedro, Nishant - I agree.

Based on your statements, I ask you to show your support and spread the word for HR 3012's petition here... http://wh.gov/4d1

Just started... and I am getting as many others as I can to join in. Please sign the petition.

[manubhai]

Kanmani... you too...

http://wh.gov/4d1

A bill under consideration already in the house is the best shot we have of getting attention to our cause.

[iamdeb]

How long will it take for the bill to pass?
Since its mentioning starting fiscal year 2012 (which starts next week) I believe it should pass within next 3-4 months.

[nishant2200]

How long will it take for the bill to pass?
Since its mentioning starting fiscal year 2012 (which starts next week) I believe it should pass within next 3-4 months.

I hope this one is clubbed with economic recovery, how this will help economic recovery. That is the main catalyst that would help the bill, not because the system is unfair or any sympathy for legal immigration.

[Kanmani]

How long will it take for the bill to pass?
Since its mentioning starting fiscal year 2012 (which starts next week) I believe it should pass within next 3-4 months.

Unless it is a bipartisan bill ( Republicans & Democrats both agree unanimously) it takes atleast 6 months to pass.

actual process of the bill is getting passed in both House and Senate before presented for signature to President (H & S are like Rajya sabha and Lokh sabha in India but here unlike RS, house members are also elected by people)

The drawback is after got passed in House, around 400 Bills are sleeping in the Senate as of 2010 without consideration.

So we cannot celebrate even if it gets passed in the House .

Various news agencies report that Republicans are very keen to pass atleast one legal immigration bill to raise their election fund from IT companies.

Thats why I am hoping for the best with fingers crossed

[immitime]

How long will it take for the bill to pass?
Since its mentioning starting fiscal year 2012 (which starts next week) I believe it should pass within next 3-4 months.

How a Bill becomes a law

http://www.usconstitution.net/consttop_law.html

[qesehmk]

RMS, I think you have made your point clear about online petitions' futility in bringing any change in immigration system.

However, this forum has certain decorum that people generally maintain. I will appreciate if you could maintain it. I hate to put any restrictions on anyone. And we have done it only on one user in the last 1 year of our existence. So I request you to calm down and engage in meaningful dialogue. Disagreements are ok. Attacks are not ok.

immitime: what do you stand for?
You lobby for removal of per country visa cap and support EB3 I. Now for convenience you pity EB3 ROW just so that EB2 I does not get spillover. Don't flip flop. Take a stand and stick to it please
I don't buy the fact that an immi forum can change rules please...shows your maturity level

[stillanoptimist]

fyi,Here is the press release last week from the congressman who introduced this bill

http://chaffetz.house.gov/press-rele...ion-bill.shtml

[Spectator]

Here's a quick summary of the bill.

a) It eliminates per country limits for EB by FY 2015, but it drastically increases it right away.
b) While the split of EB1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 does not change (40K each for EBs 1 through 3), for 2012, all but 15% is now open to all countries (6K reserved in each category, so 34K open; increasing to 36K in FY 2013 & FY2014).
c) That 6K (dropping to 4K in 2013 & 2014) is reserved for all countries other than India and China, whereas for the remaining 34K visa numbers, all countries can compete based on PDs (its basically India and China for at least FY2012 and probably most of FY 2013 too since the others are all current right now).
d) There is also a limit of 28K (28,028) per country, that may or may not apply for EB2 India in the first few years. I wasn't able to tell based on the analysis Spec & Q and others have done what the split is between India and China post July 2007.
e) The biggest winners will be EB3 India (should move to Sep 2004), EB2 I & China (should move to Sep 2009) and to a lesser extent EB3 China, Mexico and Phillipines (should catch up with EB3 ROW and move to around Sep 2005) all by the end of FY 2012. The biggest losers would be EB2 ROW which will retrogress to around Sep 2009.

Here's the fundamentals of my analysis for EB2. EB2 I & C will now have 34K of available visa numbers + 20K of estimated spillover falls down (will be lower than previous estimates because there will no longer be EB2 ROW FA; Q estimates in the first post of this thread that 22.6K of EB1 + EB5 FD came to EB2 I & C last year, i assumed a slight discount to that in FY 2012) to provide 54K visa numbers for EB2 I & C.
Using Spec's sheet (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011) and his assumptions of 8.1K backlog, 1.5K left over applicants from FY 2011 (pre April 2007) and 3K porters (midway of his range), we get to the bottom of his chart (Jan 2009) having used up only 49.5K visa numbers. It looks from the bottom of that chart that we are looking at roughly 500 applicants per month, so the remaining 4.5K available visa numbers (54 - 49.5) should move us another 9 months to Sep/Oct 2009.

Even without spillover, this bill would permit 8.5K of movement per quarter, allowing movement to Sep 07 by Q2, Jan 08 in Q3, and May 08 by Q4. Nothing but good news if this bill becomes law. Something to keep our eye on.

Kanmani, i'm nominating you our legislative process coordinator. Please keep us informed as and when you find out more.

Pedro,

Just to add to your post.

For Unreserved visas (those for IC initially), no Country may use more than 70% of that total.

For Reserved visas (to be split between Mexico, Philippines & ROW), no Country may use more than 25% of that total.

The limits would be:

-------------- FY2012 -- FY2013 -- FY2014 -- FY2015 on
Reserved ------ 15% ----- 10% ---- 10% ---------- 0%
Total Visas -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040

Reserved ------ 6,006 --- 4,004 --- 4,004 ------- 0
25% ----------- 1,502 --- 1,001 --- 1,001 ------- 0

Unreserved --- 34,034 -- 36,036 -- 36,036 -- 40,040
70% ---------- 23,824 -- 25,225 -- 25,225 -- 28,028

Effectively, for FY2012 that would initially be :

China ------- 10,210 (34,034 minus 23,824)
India ------- 23,824 (70% limit)
Mexico ------- 1,502 (25% limit)
Philippines -- 1,502 (25% limit)
ROW ---------- 3,002 (Remainder)
Total ------- 40,040

In reality, for EB2, Mexico doesn't use 1,502 visas, so some would be shared between Philippines and ROW.

The same Reserved/Unreserved splits and maximums of 70%/25% also seems to be applied to Spillover, although the language is not entirely clear.

The EB2-C Cut Off Date would accelerate rapidly, probably catching EB2-ROW-MP in FY2013.

Assuming continued high demand from EB2-I beyond FY2010 PDs and the 70% limit, the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I would not equal EB2-C-MP-ROW until around FY2019/FY2020.

At this point, all Countries would be retrogressed by around 2.5 years by my rough calculation.

EB3 is much more difficult to calculate. China doesn't have the demand, but Philippines does for the period CY2006 onwards and Mexico demand is always a mystery.

EB3-I might catch up to ROW Cut Off date fairly quickly, but all Countries would end up around 8 years retrogressed and increasing.

[gcseeker]

Manubhai ,Kanmani,Immitime,Pedro and others

Really good effort to spread the word about petitions and other actions which will help post 2008 applicants down the lane in cutting short the green card wait time.

I fully support the petitioning process and desire to act instead of letting the system take its toll.However just want to voice some thoughts which might not be popular but might help people understand the process better.Also it might help temper the expectations of some of the new forum members who might get carried away with the emotion and plan accordingly that something will get passed this year or the next.

The emotion behind the petitions is great.Signing and forwarding them and spending the time for them is great. Let me just add the reality part of it too so that people can get the entire picture.

1.Bills will not pass if they are good for the USA .The high priority jobs bill of the president is an good example..with the country on the verge of an double dip recession and with unemployment as high as 12% in some states.You would think this bill would pass in a heartbeat and nobody can even deny it is good for the Usa.

Bills will only pass if you can pitch it properly to the Dem and Repub bases.You will always need a strong senator who can get behind the bill to get it passed.

Targetting senators like Rubio(R) of Florida and Daryl Issa (R) of Sandiego would be examples.

2.Gc stapling to Master's bill will be shot down in ten seconds primarily due to the opposition of organizations like IEEE and many others. IEEE primarily catering to semiconductor industry and allied networking/embedded industry has been a strong opponent of increasing gc quota's and work visas even though Organizations like Intel/MSFT/Qualcomm have for years been saying there is an shortage.The ground reality is even within a specialized field like Chip design there is high unemployment. The recession did not hit all sectors the same way. Silicon valley might be booming with hiring in companies like Zynga/Facebook/Google with unheard of salaries. At the same every month one or the other engineering company keeps on laying off people.If you are an 50 yr old electrical engineer out of work ...you will be mighty pissed off at the immigrants who are being given those jobs.

Again various sectors...various stakeholders.

3.Ground political reality. Obama currently has the lowest ratings of his entire term .Even in a deep blue state like California he is way down in his approval ratings. Perry can definetly give him an run for his money if he can win the Repub primaries.Repubs already control the house.It will take only 4 seats to flip the senate which can be done.

So Either you get an Repub President with control of both house and senate or Obama is re-elected and stuck with an Repub controlled house and senate.

Only scenario 1 will be favourable to any Immigration bills (Only high tech no sweeping Comprehensive stuff ) . Scenario 2 will be the worst because it will be essentially an repeat of last two years.


The only bill that will ever get passed will need to have the blessing of the Repub senators in both scenarios.Also honestly and truly speaking next year is an election year.People will be busy campaigning. The bill would have to be voted in by December to have an chance to become Law.If an all important jobs bill can get logjammed ...any other bill will easily get stuck

I would still spread the word around in the hope something happens in 2013 and realistically would plan rest of my career in such a way that promotions and other stuff are maximized before that and would not bank on any of this stuff passing.

Sorry to rain on the parade.Just sharing my opinion.

[skpanda]

good analysis...

However, I doubt if this will kick off in 2012 (Assuming it is passed)

Since FY 2012 starts next week. Approvals will start coming.
USCIS will need some time to change their systems and may advise that right time to do this will be FY2013.

Here's a quick summary of the bill.

a) It eliminates per country limits for EB by FY 2015, but it drastically increases it right away.
b) While the split of EB1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 does not change (40K each for EBs 1 through 3), for 2012, all but 15% is now open to all countries (6K reserved in each category, so 34K open; increasing to 36K in FY 2013 & FY2014).
c) That 6K (dropping to 4K in 2013 & 2014) is reserved for all countries other than India and China, whereas for the remaining 34K visa numbers, all countries can compete based on PDs (its basically India and China for at least FY2012 and probably most of FY 2013 too since the others are all current right now).
d) There is also a limit of 28K (28,028) per country, that may or may not apply for EB2 India in the first few years. I wasn't able to tell based on the analysis Spec & Q and others have done what the split is between India and China post July 2007.
e) The biggest winners will be EB3 India (should move to Sep 2004), EB2 I & China (should move to Sep 2009) and to a lesser extent EB3 China, Mexico and Phillipines (should catch up with EB3 ROW and move to around Sep 2005) all by the end of FY 2012. The biggest losers would be EB2 ROW which will retrogress to around Sep 2009.

Here's the fundamentals of my analysis for EB2. EB2 I & C will now have 34K of available visa numbers + 20K of estimated spillover falls down (will be lower than previous estimates because there will no longer be EB2 ROW FA; Q estimates in the first post of this thread that 22.6K of EB1 + EB5 FD came to EB2 I & C last year, i assumed a slight discount to that in FY 2012) to provide 54K visa numbers for EB2 I & C.
Using Spec's sheet (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011) and his assumptions of 8.1K backlog, 1.5K left over applicants from FY 2011 (pre April 2007) and 3K porters (midway of his range), we get to the bottom of his chart (Jan 2009) having used up only 49.5K visa numbers. It looks from the bottom of that chart that we are looking at roughly 500 applicants per month, so the remaining 4.5K available visa numbers (54 - 49.5) should move us another 9 months to Sep/Oct 2009.

Even without spillover, this bill would permit 8.5K of movement per quarter, allowing movement to Sep 07 by Q2, Jan 08 in Q3, and May 08 by Q4. Nothing but good news if this bill becomes law. Something to keep our eye on.

Kanmani, i'm nominating you our legislative process coordinator. Please keep us informed as and when you find out more.

[nishant2200]

good effort and summarization. thank you.

Here's a quick summary of the bill.

a) It eliminates per country limits for EB by FY 2015, but it drastically increases it right away.
b) While the split of EB1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 does not change (40K each for EBs 1 through 3), for 2012, all but 15% is now open to all countries (6K reserved in each category, so 34K open; increasing to 36K in FY 2013 & FY2014).
c) That 6K (dropping to 4K in 2013 & 2014) is reserved for all countries other than India and China, whereas for the remaining 34K visa numbers, all countries can compete based on PDs (its basically India and China for at least FY2012 and probably most of FY 2013 too since the others are all current right now).
d) There is also a limit of 28K (28,028) per country, that may or may not apply for EB2 India in the first few years. I wasn't able to tell based on the analysis Spec & Q and others have done what the split is between India and China post July 2007.
e) The biggest winners will be EB3 India (should move to Sep 2004), EB2 I & China (should move to Sep 2009) and to a lesser extent EB3 China, Mexico and Phillipines (should catch up with EB3 ROW and move to around Sep 2005) all by the end of FY 2012. The biggest losers would be EB2 ROW which will retrogress to around Sep 2009.

Here's the fundamentals of my analysis for EB2. EB2 I & C will now have 34K of available visa numbers + 20K of estimated spillover falls down (will be lower than previous estimates because there will no longer be EB2 ROW FA; Q estimates in the first post of this thread that 22.6K of EB1 + EB5 FD came to EB2 I & C last year, i assumed a slight discount to that in FY 2012) to provide 54K visa numbers for EB2 I & C.
Using Spec's sheet (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011) and his assumptions of 8.1K backlog, 1.5K left over applicants from FY 2011 (pre April 2007) and 3K porters (midway of his range), we get to the bottom of his chart (Jan 2009) having used up only 49.5K visa numbers. It looks from the bottom of that chart that we are looking at roughly 500 applicants per month, so the remaining 4.5K available visa numbers (54 - 49.5) should move us another 9 months to Sep/Oct 2009.

Even without spillover, this bill would permit 8.5K of movement per quarter, allowing movement to Sep 07 by Q2, Jan 08 in Q3, and May 08 by Q4. Nothing but good news if this bill becomes law. Something to keep our eye on.

Kanmani, i'm nominating you our legislative process coordinator. Please keep us informed as and when you find out more.

[Kanmani]

The Job Act is opposed even by the fellow democrats, as the net cost to create 1 job = 200K ( as per CNN)

coming back to our bill HR 3012 , Republicans seem to agree for legal immigration reforms, but the democrats disagree to pass them without any additonal provisions for illegals in the bill. They dont want to support stand alone legal immigration .

[Spectator]

good analysis...

However, I doubt if this will kick off in 2012 (Assuming it is passed)

Since FY 2012 starts next week. Approvals will start coming.
USCIS will need some time to change their systems and may advise that right time to do this will be FY2013.

skpanda,

From the text of the Bill: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill...bill=h112-3012

(d) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall take effect as if enacted on September 30, 2011, and shall apply to fiscal years beginning with fiscal year 2012.

If at the time of enactment, more than the 15% have been allocated to ROW-MP, they will have to made Unavailable with immediate effect, since DOS cannot fly contrary to Congress.

It would be a complete mess.

[Pedro Gonzales]

For Unreserved visas (those for IC initially), no Country may use more than 70% of that total.

For Reserved visas (to be split between Mexico, Philippines & ROW), no Country may use more than 25% of that total.

The limits would be:

-------------- FY2012 -- FY2013 -- FY2014 -- FY2015 on
Reserved ------ 15% ----- 10% ---- 10% ---------- 0%
Total Visas -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040

Reserved ------ 6,006 --- 4,004 --- 4,004 ------- 0
25% ----------- 1,502 --- 1,001 --- 1,001 ------- 0

Unreserved --- 34,034 -- 36,036 -- 36,036 -- 40,040
70% ---------- 23,824 -- 25,225 -- 25,225 -- 28,028

Effectively, for FY2012 that would initially be :

China ------- 10,210 (34,034 minus 23,824)
India ------- 23,824 (70% limit)
Mexico ------- 1,502 (25% limit)
Philippines -- 1,502 (25% limit)
ROW ---------- 3,002 (Remainder)
Total ------- 40,040

Spec, I am envious of your ability to clearly disseminate information. Truly remarkable.

I disagree on your read of one issue, though.

The bill reads: "The numbers of visas calculated under this clause for a fiscal year is the number that is equal to 70 percent of the total number of immigrant visas made available under
such section 203(b) for such fiscal year."
I believe that is 70% of the entire 40,040 of each category, not 70% of the 34,034. So, 28,028 instead of 23,824.

GCseeker, I think we're too early in the process to be picking winners and losers. Last election at this stage McCain and Obama were both in 3rd place, (per Rachel Maddow, i myself did not confirm this). Secondly, Perry's performance has been spectacularly bad in the debates that he's participated in thusfar, that he's hardly a shoo in for the nomination. Also, I disagree that the Republican's have a sure shot at winning the Senate and holding the House. Even in my hard core Republican district in Arizona, people are fed up with what they see as Republican stonewalling of all proposals. They aren't thrilled with Obama, but they're sufficiently pissed off with the Republican House too that I'd wait and see some reputable polls before making any conclusions.

However I think your advise to take all this talk with a pinch of salt is very prudent. This bill may make it through the House since Lamar Smith appears to have taken a liking to it, and I think President Obama will sign it if it gets to him, but whether it gets taken up in the Senate at all is very debatable, even ignoring timing.

[Spectator]

The Job Act is opposed even by the fellow democrats, as the net cost to create 1 job = 200K ( as per CNN)

coming back to our bill HR 3012 , Republicans seem to agree for legal immigration reforms, but the democrats disagree to pass them without any additonal provisions for illegals in the bill. They dont want to support stand alone legal immigration .

Kanmani,

This Bill is no more than political posturing by the Republicans to derail the far better H.R. 2161: IDEA Act of 2011 http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill...bill=h112-2161 introduced by Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D - CA), which is entirely focussed on EB immigration and includes visas recapture, not counting dependents and much more, as well as removing the 7% per Country limit for EB.

The Immigration Subcommittee on Immigration Policy and Enforcement is led by Republican hawks, who don't really want anything to happen.

Steve King (R - IA) the vice chairman is not much better than Chuck Grassley (R - IA).
Elton Gallegly, the Chairman, (R - CA) isn't much better.

They both have track records.

[Spectator]

Pedro,

Possibly you are correct

[rdsingh79]

I agree that bill won't go anywhere. Democrat led Senate would probably try to modify the bill by adding DREAM acts provisions, which would be not palatable to House and Senate Republicans. So in summary it is not going anywhere....at the best House will pass it and then nothing will happen.

Senate rules seems so screwy to me...need 60 votes to avoid a filibuster.

Another thing I keep wondering is why did Democrats not pass any immigration reform when they had house majority, 60 seats in Senate and a Democrat president.

However I think your advise to take all this talk with a pinch of salt is very prudent. This bill may make it through the House since Lamar Smith appears to have taken a liking to it, and I think President Obama will sign it if it gets to him, but whether it gets taken up in the Senate at all is very debatable, even ignoring timing.