Just to clear the air about Facebook not being in the official list of lobbying organizations for HR 3012, I am posting this link. Facebook has done lobbying for HR 3012. The article does not mention whether it was pro or anti-HR 3012 but there are enough reasons to believe that Facebook is pro-HR 3012.
Here goes the article
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-574...rd-in-q2-2012/
I see that my previous post (#1879) sounds like Facebook is not a supporter. I just meant that it is not included in the open secretes.org list. Other than the Cnet news, it is also included in the list of signatories at,Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
http://www.technet.org/wp-content/up...UN-27-2012.pdf
To Jonty
The congressional daily digest has some wiggle room left for a possibility for the Bill to be considered
"Cloture was filed on the motion to proceed to consideration of S. 3412, Middle Class Tax Cut Act. If no agreement is reached, the cloture vote on the motion to proceed to consideration of the bill will occur on Wednesday.
During the balance of the week, Senate may consider any cleared legislative and executive business. "
I read somewhere that Sen.Reid may take another stab at the cyber-security Bill this week. Personally I feel that there is not much time left for discussion for this Bill before the recess but unanimous consent passage is possible and more likely
Sorry, I missed to see that link earlier. Thanks for pointing out that letter.
Thanks gs1968. I hope your words are right.
If this tax cut bill doesn't get resolved, that will continue to be a distraction in the media and we know senators and congressmen are going to love getting some air time before the elections.
I do not think this bill will get resolved in the senate. With just 53 members, Democrats will never be able to sell it, whatever sort of persuasion they may impose. So they will just sit and bicker about class warfare well up till the next week. But then the Senate, I suppose, works till next Thursday. If only they can do something about HR3012 this week, they can vote on it next Monday/Tuesday. But then on Tuesday they have caucus luncheon. Stuff it in Senators, please stuff it in. If the Japanese can do it, you too can do it - www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4LG5k9xkRo
yes i agree, (this) tax bill is not gonna be solved, this is just political drama. most probably they won't even get enough votes on Motion to invoke cloture on motion to proceed. so there won't be any debate but there will be just speeches from both sides on what should be the tax bill. dems will continue on their speeches about letting tax break expire for income of 250k or more for people make that kinda money,,and reps are going to block it since dems bill does not give tax breaks for those people who they think will hire more people if they get to keep their tax break from January. I still haven't heard about any deals on tax bill and even if it passes in the senate,,it will be hard to pass it in the house..
surprisingly no news from Schumer on vote on this bill...he is the one who is going to push for the vote on this bill...
I was also kinda disappointed with what Se. Reid talked about today morning. Before the end of the month he wanted the cybersecurity bill passed (Sen. McCain expressed his displeasure, so this will also drag on). He also wanted a legislation on new Iran sanctions before they quit (http://www.republican.senate.gov/pub.../floor-updates). Of course he started with a lecture about the Tax bill (what some republicans call as 'DEmocrat's Bill for Tax increase - DEBT). Yes Sen. Schumer can raise up any time and submit a bill for reading, but then I suppose he will not do it unless the hold statement is removed from the schedule (where it still lurks - http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CCAL-11...12hcal-pt8.pdf).
Nothing related to 3012, but Sen.McConnell actually says he will let the tax bill pass. And I say do it fast... but then it goes to the Congress. We will see what is their next business... cybersecurity, Iran, H.R.3012?
Please read this, lifting hold on H.R.3012, congressional record on gpo website.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CREC-20...-PgS4889-4.pdf
Yes I am aware of that document as well. That means that Grassley's latter is officially on record. Yet GPO does not remove the bill from it daily publication on the 'resolutions and motions under the rule'. That seems odd to me. Perhaps that is the way it is done, and this hold record will be there until the bill is passed. Thanks.
PS: Not trying to harp on the same issue, I am just trying to comprehend it. Thanks again.
No problem, there are lot of politics going on, which is not transparent to us, but it will all be sustained soon, since the whole tech lobby is behind this bill. And this is the only bill which have lot of support in the Senate, hope fully after passing senate it will go to the conference committee instead of going for voting on Congress again! (which is a waste of time) As per un-authorised bloggings and other news coming out this bill should at least be in the Senate floor(if not unanimously passed one silent evening, just talking about possiblility.) before Senate goes to summer recess.
tax bill passed,,"wow",,
but seems like Cyber Security is next...
Spec and others...
Somebody in Ron's forum was arguing and quoting this forum (may be Spec's post) that after the 3 year transition period, EBIC will get 100% of the green cards (which is absurd and stupid in my opinion).
So I did the following calculations: Can you guyz let me know if I missed something fundamental?
************
I have used 3rd May 2012 485 Inventory for my calculations:
EB3:
Backlog (till July 2007):
EB2IC - 51,868
ROW - 34,276 (Including Mexico and Philipines)
Assume that HR3012 becomes law and it is applied effective October 2012.
a. FY 2013 -
EB3IC will get 34K and ROW will get 6K (85% and 15%)
BACKLOG: EB3IC 17,868 ROW 28,276
b. FY 2014 -
EB3IC will get 36K and ROW will get 4K (90% and 10%)
BACKLOG: EB3IC 0 ROW Uncertain (definately less than 28,276)
Somehwere in the middle of the year, EB3IC backlog becomes zero and FIFO is followed. Clearly NOT 100% for EB3IC unless you can prove that nobody applied from ROW July 2007 onward.
c. FY 2015 -
EB3IC will get 36K and ROW will get 4K (90% and 10%).
BACKLOG: 0
Somewhere in the middle of the year all countries backlog till July 2007 is cleared and FIFO is followed. Clearly NOT 100% for EB3IC unless you can prove that nobody applied from ROW July 2007 onward.
EB2:
Backlog (till April 2012):
EB2IC - 93,000 (Adjusted from Original 47,914 - see note below)
ROW - 12,976 (Including Mexico and Phillipines)
Note on EB2IC numbers: It is widely agreed that the inventory numbers for EB2IC may not be upto date in the inventory. Historically the number of applications from India and China have never exceeded 20K per year. So going by that, I added 55,000 (15K till Apr 2010 and 20K each for Apr 2011 and April 2012 - even though i know that is too high). If you do not agree with this assumption, pretty much there is no point in looking at EB2 calculations. However most important thing is that I was able to prove that EB3IC definately will not get 100% at any point of time)
Assume that HR3012 becomes law and it is applied effective October 2012.
a. FY 2013 -
EB2IC will get 34K and ROW will get 6K (85% and 15%)
BACKLOG: EB2IC 49,000 ROW 6,976
b. FY 2014 -
EB2IC will get 36K and ROW will get 4K (90% and 10%)
BACKLOG: EB2IC 13,000 ROW 2,976
c. FY 2015 -
EB3IC will get 36K and ROW will get 4K (90% and 10%).
BACKLOG: 0
Somewhere in the middle of the year all countries backlog till April 2012 is cleared and FIFO is followed. Clearly NOT 100% for EB2IC unless you can prove that nobody applied from ROW April 2012 onward.
Conclusion:
Clearly at no point EBIC will get more than 100%. If you think I have missed something fundamental, I appreciate constructive feedback so that we can fine tune the above.
Last edited by skpanda; 07-25-2012 at 04:49 PM.
You are missing the fact that ROW backlog will grow after 2012 if HR3012 passes.
The point of the argument is that - will EBIC get 100% green cards after 3 year period?
Note the data is as of July 2007 for EB3 and Apr 2012 for EB2. Once they reach those dates.. it is FIFO.
In my calculations i have proven that PD will reach July 2007 for EB3 and Apr 2012 for EB2 (with some assumptions) around the 2nd/3rd Year of the transition period after which it will be FIFO.
So when does EBIC get 100% of green cards?
Last edited by skpanda; 07-25-2012 at 05:01 PM.
Not under your numbers, but it doesn't matter. As unfair as country quotas are to us, the EB pool will be dominated by IT workers from India. The country of origin is not the problem; it is the industry concentration and the fact that there is indeed a lot of wage arbitrage happening (partly due to country quotas and the long wait IC faces). It's hard to say if a large influx of questionably-skilled IT workers, at the cost of others such as doctors, other engineers, etc., will be a net benefit to the economy.
And to be honest, EB2IC will probably get 100% of GCs at some point unless the standards are tightened. The demand shows no signs of abating and my guess is that once GCs are allocated in FIFO and the wait goes down, more people from IC will be willing to wait 5 years and the numbers will swell.
My views are contrarian and most people here don't like/agree with them so take it for what it's worth.
I agree to what you are saying... but unless they come with rules of quota in industry... it cannot be avoided. may be a points system may help.
Back to my calcualtions.. You cited EB2IC may get 100%... that can happen only when not a single person applies from ROW. I doubt that will be ever be the case. Your thoughts..
A points system would undoubtedly solve this issue once and for all. But you have idiots like Roberto Menendez who thinks it is stupid because his parents (a carpenter and seamstress) would not be able to migrate to the US under it. (as if they could now with the backlog for unskilled people) And I suspect a lot of IC immigrants won't support it if it considers Indian non-engg degrees inferior to a proper 4 yr degree like the Danish points system does.
Re 100%, I see what you are saying and I think you are right. But ROW will be backlogged due to high demand from IC (mostly I), which they will consider unfair. Country quotas were stupid in the first place, and if they are abolished, at least all immigrants will be on the same side for arguing for true reform like a points system or higher quotas. Right now, ROWers don't care. Only ICers do. IC has undoubtedly made the situation worse for themselves, but you might see more calls for a points system once it becomes clear that IT is creating backlogs at the expense of other equally valuable STEM occupations. Right now, it's really not an issue because most IT immigrants are from India and they are back-logged, but immigrants from anywhere else, who are not as concentrated in IT, can get in. The ratio of IT to non-IT immigrants will change markedly if HR 3012 passes.
Same ploy again from the Senate-File cloture on the motion to proceed on the cybersecurity Bill and instead of Friday they will reach agreement tomorrow followed by a 3 day weekend again.File cloture on the main Bill tomorrow after agreeing to proceed and invite amendments with a final vote Monday or Tuesday
On a different note-the Senate passed a Bill for the relief of Sopuruchi Chukwueke to enable him to get a Green card. His story is remarkable and most of us have not gone through anything in our lives like he has
http://victorshope.org/
Points based system has its own issues as it is not a labor market (demand-supply) based system.
The link below does a comparison between Employment based (US) and Points based (Canada) systems, page 3 mentions issues with points based systems (and page 4 mentions issues with the other one).
(In my opinion) The current US system needs a reform but to fix areas where demand-supply equation is being artificially tampered with (H1-B caps, Green card caps, country limits).
A points based system leaves more in the hands of bureaucrats and politicians instead of letting labor market determine the areas with skills shortage.
Even if we account for some manipulation (5-10%) Labor Certification step quite effectively tries to fill a valid open position that can not be filled with domestically available talent pool.
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/...intssystem.pdf
Last edited by GhostWriter; 07-25-2012 at 10:23 PM.
US, needs reform on immigration, this wording is going on for at least a decade now, but with the present laws nothing is happening in Washington. The first thing, which should be changed is the Fillibuster law. They should reform the filibuster law in such a way that one can fillibuster if 63 Senators are supporting it, the one Sentor fillibuster law should be abolished, ( think of it. majority is agreeing but one Senator is blocking!), at least in this political situation.
This should give you some hope
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-the-election/
LOL... hope after listening to a Politician! that to a Career politician like Sen.Reid! common... this is like writing in Water! Do you believe If I say he is the main hindrance now for our H.R.3012, because he thinks republican Bil.... hope you got it.. call his office requesting for unanimous vote in the Senate.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote