Discussion of Bills that remove the Per Country Limits - H.R.3012, H,R. 213

[Pedro Gonzales]

Here is my take, If there is no vote by march, senate would not take this bill to vote until end of this year.

A colleague of mine who is really into politics (he watches MSNBC and FOX all the time, even while at work), thinks the Senate will turn Republican after the next election, and in the lame duck session Reid, in his last month as Senate majority leader will invoke cloture every 3 days to pass some 10 to 15 bills that have been held up by Grassley and others thus far. He thinks that they'll be Democrat supported measures in general, but will have to include a few that have bipartisan support. He doesn't think there are many bipartisan bills so HR 3012 could well be one of them that pass at that time. Otherwise he doesn't see Reid invoking cloture on something this unimportant to the American public. He thinks there is a good chance that if the economy keeps improving and Republican poll numbers keep dropping (apparently the most stated reason for independents to switch support is because Republicans are seen as obstructionists), then the Republican Senators who are up for tough reelections (not many with clout) and the entire Republican Congress (huge clout as a body) will give Grassley something else in return for his dropping his hold, just so that they can chalk up a successful immigration achievement that is still largely seen as their initiative. I asked him what they could possibly give Grassley, who has no reelection for another 4 years, no sign of credidble opposition and no obvious further ambitions, but he thinks there always is something.

This is purely one man's opinion. He has no inside knowledge of anything. He only knows about this bill because I've told him about it. What he has is decades of experience watching American politics, and a pretty good understanding (media driven no doubt) of what goes on in Washington. I believe him too.

In summary, I think the bill still has a 50-50 chance of getting through the senate unadultered (as it would happen not through cloture, but through Grassley dropping his hold) in the next several months, and a > 75% chance of passing at the end of the year.

[gcq]

Grassley is one kind of a person. He will not compromise. This bill will have to pass through cloture. IMO republicans are not going to have the dream run they had in the past election. In fact republicans will be on defense this time especially with Obama up for re-election.

If democrats lose senate, what is their motivation to pass bills in cloture motion ? If this bill is to pass, it has to pass now with a cloture.

[vickywac]

Grassley is one kind of a person. He will not compromise. This bill will have to pass through cloture. IMO republicans are not going to have the dream run they had in the past election. In fact republicans will be on defense this time especially with Obama up for re-election.

If democrats lose senate, what is their motivation to pass bills in cloture motion ? If this bill is to pass, it has to pass now with a cloture.

Gcq,
I agree with you. Grassley will not release his hold anytime. Here are the possible scenarios that would happen for HR 3012 in senate.
1. Cloture for HR 3012 as a sperate bill.
2. Cloture for HR 3012 + Irish, still not sure it will pass thru in house, house will
oppose for any increase in visa numbers numerically. If the bill failed to pass in
house what would be the fate of HR 3012?.
Democrats need to have a political will to bring the cloture before election.
Poor EB3 folks, including me, spectators of the political drama!
As this is reppublican bill, what is the position on the republican senate leadership on this bill ?. Will they go with grassley on immigration matters all time?...

This is really a test for our patience. This is my 13 year with mercy of the 2007 bulletin fiasco. This is really testing my patience!.

[gcq]

I don't think GOP leadership will have any issue with the bill. In fact they will firmly support this bill along with the democrats. The critical thing is to pass this bill without any amendments.

[vickywac]

I don't think GOP leadership will have any issue with the bill. In fact they will firmly support this bill along with the democrats. The critical thing is to pass this bill without any amendments.

Thank you. What is your best hunch still the cloture not been invoked?.
Our best interest would be the bill as standalone but If the cloture invoked with IRISH, what would be the fate of this Bill in house?.
As we know, house is against in any increase in numerical limits.

Do IRISH provision would be endorsed by congress rep as well,
before it amened in senate?.

Lot's of If and but....
GB

[gcq]

I am with you that a stand alone bill is the best. If combined with Irish E3, it may not clear the house. The main reason that HR 3012 had a smooth sail is because it does not increase a single visa. If E3 is added to HR 3012, anti-immigrant groups will strongly oppose even if lawmakers are ok with it.

If Irish were confident that they will get enough support in house, they wouldn't have combined E3 into HR 3012. They want to take advantage of HR 3012's success in the house.

My impression about Irish has come down a lot after their misadventure with E3. I didn't know that Irish are this naive and spineless.

[idiotic]

HR3012 is on Obama's Jobs agenda. It is through that route that Reid will be filing cloture on HR3012. When Reid is going to take up Obama's jobs agenda, no one knows. Reid on the floor today said that he will be focussing on surface transport and postal dept bills as next on Senate agenda. He dealt with all pending nominations today in one shot. For now, we need to wait till Surface transport and postal bills get through. Hopefully Obama's jobs bill will be next.. That's my thinking..

[Pedro Gonzales]

HR3012 is on Obama's Jobs agenda. It is through that route that Reid will be filing cloture on HR3012. When Reid is going to take up Obama's jobs agenda, no one knows. Reid on the floor today said that he will be focussing on surface transport and postal dept bills as next on Senate agenda. He dealt with all pending nominations today in one shot. For now, we need to wait till Surface transport and postal bills get through. Hopefully Obama's jobs bill will be next.. That's my thinking..

That too makes sense.

[vickywac]

Interesting and postive views. Do senate wait until St. patrick day to invoke cloture on this bill?.

[lalaji]

More senators join E3:
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Key...139570188.html

[imdeng]

Well... I am perhaps too cynical - but even if HR-3012 passed WITH E3 amendment in the Senate, I don't think house will shoot it down. Most of the people who are Anti-Immigrant are really using the term as code for being Anti-The-Recent-Kind-Of-Immigrant. I would not be surprised if even hardcore anti organizations and people will somehow find a rationale for being perfectly fine with adding 10K additional visas for Irish. There is a deep undercurrent of subtext and history behind all the immigration debates and even though overt racism might be dead in the public discourse, the underlying theme still stays strong.

Did anyone oppose the Australian E3 visa when it came up? At least I did not hear about it. Even Irish E3 visa does not have any vocal opposition - they have less support for not outright opposition. Just imagine how it would be if someone proposes an E3 for India/China/Mexico/etc.

[vickywac]

It's going to very tough battle in cogress unless if there is a unanimous consent by both parties on the Irish provision in senate.
Once chaffetz referred that " even lamar smith will not agree if there is increase in numbers".
Increase in numbers is going to be play negative in news media, though it passed in senate thro cloture.
Irishi is gonna playing a gamble on their provision by using the HR 3012 as their dice.
Look at the comments from the readers for the Politico article.
http://dyn.politico.com/members/foru...readid=6440544

[gs1968]

To vickywac
The even more difficult problem is to break the hold by Senator Grassley. The Irish media keeps repeating the tally of Senators on both sides but it is important not to equate support for a particular measure with commitment to vote to break filibuster. They may vote for cloture to limit debate if all disagreements are out of the way but are unlikely to vote to undermine their own caucus unity. I have a link below to a somewhat parallel situation in the senate-

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/na...osition=recent

This is also a measure with bipartisan support and counts Senators Schumer and Grassley as co-sponsors.Both of them have made powerful floor speeches to let the Bill move forward.If a cloture motion were to be filed it is very likely that this Bill will pass the Senate.However they will continue to wait for unanimous consent.Next to elephants, Senators have long memories and will remember when other senators voted against them. Every Senator has had either a Bill or nomination on hold at some point and it would weaken their hand if they voted to break other senators' holds especially of their own party.If a freshman senator can hold up a Bill and others are waiting for him to release it-I am not sure how one will break a Senior Senator like Grassley's hold unless he relents himself

BTW can any other forum member point a link to where it says Sens.Sessions and Vitter are against the Irish Provision?

[vickywac]

To vickywac
The even more difficult problem is to break the hold by Senator Grassley. The Irish media keeps repeating the tally of Senators on both sides but it is important not to equate support for a particular measure with commitment to vote to break filibuster. They may vote for cloture to limit debate if all disagreements are out of the way but are unlikely to vote to undermine their own caucus unity. I have a link below to a somewhat parallel situation in the senate-

Interesting. There is no synergy between the senate and house within republican party. If this is true HR 3012 is in high risk to pass in senate.
What about the agenda as a party, if the two chambers dont work together?.

[gcq]

I don't know why people still like to talk about Grassley's "hold" when HR 3012 has already bypassed judiciary committee and is on Senate calendar !

Grassley on fillibuster http://youtu.be/o8VLBhhlhcs

Grassley on why he likes Senate than house ? fillibuster http://youtu.be/nBnD8uaH1Ds

Ethanol subsidies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDclBdC5MP0

[kuku82]

Seems we are 2 senators short of magical 60.......

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Key...139570188.html

[Kanmani]

Senator Brown's E-3 bill is exclusively drafted to benefit Irish, which has nothing to do with our 3012.
Here is the bill text http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-1...112s2005is.pdf
I cannot find any of our bill's provisions attached with it, but I may be wrong. If others find it in the other way, please correct me.

[kd2008]

Senator Brown's E-3 bill is exclusively drafted to benefit Irish, which has nothing to do with our 3012.
Here is the bill text http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-1...112s2005is.pdf
I cannot find any of our bill's provisions attached with it, but I may be wrong. If others find it in the other way, please correct me.

Kanmani, the backdoor deals will be completed before anything shows up on the official bills. Yes, Sen. Brown has a separate bill. Sen. Schumer has proposed an amendment to HR 3012 that includes essentially Sen. Brown's bill. Again the operating word is proposed. You won't find it in the official records.

Because it is so controversial, everything is done behind the closed doors without any open debate and then unanimous consent will be sought. I think the Senate is underestimating the House here. If the Senate passes the bill HR 3012 with the Irish amendment then the House will reject it for sure. We being mere puppets are just going to watch the show and see our future being kicked around like a football.

[kuku82]

Even if HR3012 clubbed with the Irish bill is cleared by the House, I'm wondering what Obama's stance would be on the same. The thing that concerns me is the eligibility requirements for the E-3 visa....which are not really deemed "high skilled".....and given the current economic circumstances! In all of his addresses, he has specifically talked about 'high skilled immigration'.......

[Kanmani]

kuku
one of Obama's GGGGreat parents is Irish

[kuku82]

Sweet, now my fear is kinda allayed!

[mniwas]

If Irish PrimeMinister can come and talk to senators for their people. Why can't Manmohan Singh come and do the same for Indians. O' India almost never supports anything America does. India abstained in Libya vote, wants to do business with Iran. I don't think India has any leverage with Americans.

[lalaji]

Latest on E3:

http://newrytimes.com/2012/02/20/us-...-e3-visa-bill/

[Jonty Rhodes]

You are right. The bill does not show anything attached to it but this bill itself has not been blocked by Grassley. Grassley has still his hold on HR 3012 and they are trying to attach this bill with it and that is why they are making it filibuster proof. But I agree with kd2008 that if this bill passes the Senate, we don't know what will happen to it in the House because House has again a Republican Majority and I don't know whether they would agree with this Irish provision or not. Hopefully, we will see some action next week on the bill.

[gs1968]

More confusion-A lot of these Irish media stories seem to conflict each other

http://www.workpermit.com/news/2012-...e-to-irish.htm