If CIR has to happen, democrats need majority both in house and senate. Senate seems a possibility but getting majority in the house does not seem possible. The most likely scenario that I see after November is status quo. BO is president, democrats have senate and republicans have house. I do not see how CIR can pass in this set up.Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Obama voted for the "poison pill" amendment that killed CIR in 2007. I can't trust him on this.
That may be undisclosed reason and ** must have aware of that.But they want to fight the tide and win over it by making large crowd and by background lobbying. I am certain that some persons in ** knew why the bill is stalled but not disclosing for obvious reasons. AILA also indicated they are not happy with Grassley amendment and also wants to change phase out role. Though in public they are supporting HR 3012 there may be a deep divison as some lawyers may not want become enemies of ROW. Row is big market for them compared to India. Infact china also does not support much as their PD is still reasonable compared to India and their H1b numbers are less ever year. I think best thing will be if the bill is going nowhere it is better to drop it next year and go for some relief like increasing country quota.
I did not exactly understand what you are indicating here. I think you are suggesting that bill is stalled because of ALIA and ROW. But the solution that you are giving of increasing country quota is not going to do anything good here as Grassley won't be satisfied just with that. His main intention is to put painful restrictions on H1b. The only solution that I see is the will at upper level to invoke cloture. I think the ** approach of satisfying individual senators is not effective one. That seems endless to me as you can not satisfy each and every senator. If instead ** had worked towards a way where they would have persuaded Reid to invoke cloture instead of persuading Grassley, this bill would have passed without Grassley's amendments.
AILA and ROW is one of the reason. We can put other words. AILA did not push it after Grassley amendment. For them it is just nice to have after Grassley amendment. But I think Senators in the leadership not having interest to pass the bill. The reason would have Republicans might not be interested in family based quota increase but if they tell that will have impact in the election. But some or many senators might have thought that if HR 3012 is passed there will be overcrowding of Indians in high skilled immigration and do you think Europeans,Isrelies will wait for 10 years to get green card. They do not have catalyst to wait 10 years and come here and they have better opportunity in their countries. Anyhow if it is not passed this year next year it is more difficult and also ** will be more isolated as they got impression that they are working just for Indians. How many persons in China participated in rally or other action items for HR 3012. For china also HR 3012 is nice to have. Actually diversity in immigration was there very long time if you see the history of immigration. It is not easy to change.
[QUOTE=rupen86;30213]I did not exactly understand what you are indicating here. I think you are suggesting that bill is stalled because of ALIA and ROW.
[QUOTE=Ramsen;30214]AILA and ROW is one of the reason. We can put other words. AILA did not push it after Grassley amendment. For them it is just nice to have after Grassley amendment. But I think Senators in the leadership not having interest to pass the bill. The reason would have Republicans might not be interested in family based quota increase but if they tell that will have impact in the election. But some or many senators might have thought that if HR 3012 is passed there will be overcrowding of Indians in high skilled immigration and do you think Europeans,Isrelies will wait for 10 years to get green card. They do not have catalyst to wait 10 years and come here and they have better opportunity in their countries. Anyhow if it is not passed this year next year it is more difficult and also ** will be more isolated as they got impression that they are working just for Indians. How many persons in China participated in rally or other action items for HR 3012. For china also HR 3012 is nice to have. Actually diversity in immigration was there very long time if you see the history of immigration. It is not easy to change.
It is hard to imagine that house republicans and senate republicans would have so diverse views considering the fact that bill passed with so much overwhelming republican majority and house has more tea-party candidates than senate. I think the problem lies with the senate procedure of "hold" and wanting to pass the bill with "unanimous consent".
[QUOTE=Ramsen;30214]AILA and ROW is one of the reason. We can put other words. AILA did not push it after Grassley amendment. For them it is just nice to have after Grassley amendment. But I think Senators in the leadership not having interest to pass the bill. The reason would have Republicans might not be interested in family based quota increase but if they tell that will have impact in the election. But some or many senators might have thought that if HR 3012 is passed there will be overcrowding of Indians in high skilled immigration and do you think Europeans,Isrelies will wait for 10 years to get green card. They do not have catalyst to wait 10 years and come here and they have better opportunity in their countries. Anyhow if it is not passed this year next year it is more difficult and also ** will be more isolated as they got impression that they are working just for Indians. How many persons in China participated in rally or other action items for HR 3012. For china also HR 3012 is nice to have. Actually diversity in immigration was there very long time if you see the history of immigration. It is not easy to change.
Q, watchout lot of Attorney's and ROW guys here infiltrated and advocating almost against H.R.3012. Attorney's have made enough money, here lot of immigrant families and dependents are waiting. Business of Attorneys can stop.. This bill will be passed before December 2012, there is no doubt about it.
immitime - I don't think HR3012 does anything to attorney's business. Because HR3012 is a zero sum game. It reduces chronic pain for IC and creates a FIFO system that brings everybody within a category on the same wait time. So if IC business is gone, ROW will come in. So I do not see why attorneys should be opposed to it.
I haven't followed AILA and ROW folks quite well. But I think IC folks need to learn to respect others' opinions. We shouldn't villify somebody just because they have a different opinion.
EB-IC folks have such a strong case to make for HR3012 - both economic as well as one based on the principles of what is JUST. However the real sad story is that it is a bill that A created and then B opposed and then C hijacked saying its their bill and D is neutral and E is opposed.
So essentially a wonderful bill that actually does have strong legitimate reasons why it should get passed doesn't really have the necessary leadership from immigrant community.
My 2 cents - if you are passionate - take action on your own - make a case - use this (or any other) forum - organize people and talk intelligently as future stakeholders in the American society - not just as victims of current immigration system. And mind you - "leadership" does mean taking everybody together - so that includes ROW. IC folks need to work with them - not against.
p.s. - I apologize if you think I am condescending or critical of IC. That's not my intention especially since I have gone through the same hell you guys are experiencing.
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Well said Q, back to agreeing with u after some time
The real question is why did Harry Reid not table it?
ROW guys on the other forum would like to think that their activities is what stalled the bill. Not true. Their concerns were never taken into account during the lifetime of this bill and will never be taken.
ROW guys have no valid argument against HR 3012.
Immi, from my part, I'd welcome lawyers or ROwers to contribute to this forum. While it has defacto become an EB2I (and to a lesser extent EB3I) forum, there's no reason why ROW shouldn't be a part of the discussion too. From the perspective of predicting future VBs, when dates move past July 2007, EB3ROW is going to be as opaque as EB2I has been for a while, and in need of the same clarity. So, from my perspective, there isn't any need for folks to 'infiltrate' here.
Also, Ramsen hasn't outwardly stated yet if he's ROW or EBI, so we can't accuse him of infiltration. In any case his posts have been generally well-argued, so I welcome him here even if i disagree with some of the points he makes. Still, even if he were a ROWer 'posing' as EB2I or EB3I, that would be prerogative, and perhaps a failure on our part to display our willingness to engage ROWers in a discussion.
Last edited by Pedro Gonzales; 09-24-2012 at 08:50 AM.
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Q, your point of uniting everybody (the whole EB community) is well taken, The only solution for that is Visa Recapture. But people/party in power do not want to do that.(lot of facts, like economy,unemployment etc, eventhough it won't harm to recapture, but for the sake of votes and porpaganda that is what it is) They won't support any type of Legal immigration.
Leadership also means, knowing (especially nowadays,) who is putting hole on the Dam!. In the name of uniting we cannot become victims ourselves, to certian greedy attorneys, and other who is Anti
But H.R.3012 still is a bill on Senate calendar, after elections we need to see what happens. Sen. Reid never taken initiative to take this bill because BO will be questioned in debates when he accuses the other party that they won't co-operate and Washington is stuck. Republicans have H.R.3012 to show that bipartisan works!!! if this bill have passed the senate, that is the only reason.
Last edited by immitime; 09-24-2012 at 08:45 AM.
As per my understanding, Reid is never interested in the piecemeal approach for immigration. He is interested in CIR which is mainly for illegal people which will include something for legal immigration. So, if the bill passes by itself, he would not object to it but he would not make effort on his own to invoke cloture.Well said Q, back to agreeing with u after some time
The real question is why did Harry Reid not table it?
I do not agree with the logic of election year politics for not passing the bill. As I have said in the earlier posts, if that was the reason, democrats would simply not have negotiated with Grassley which would have not have allowed the bill to lift its head. The most logical reason seems to be like after Grassley lifted his hold some new objections from other senators might have come in which could be related to Grassley's amendments or something different. We do not know who those senators are and what their real reasons are. But the main problem is that Cloture option is not pursued. That is the only way I see that bill would pass.
PS: If ROW guys do not have influence to stop the bill, then there is no need to persuade them for the bill and I do not know how to persuade them either because this bill is against them and not in favor of them. People in general are selfish and they won't sacrifice their self interest even though that would mean justice to other people.
Pedro,
As you rightly said
"Ramsen's arguments have been a little incoherent and his motives appear a little suspect. I'm referring to his stated position of being for HR3012 while making tangential arguments that appear to argue against it. Still, if he is infact a ROWer 'posing' as EB2I or EB3I, that's his prerogative"
That was the only thing I was referring to. That does not sound we should not unite our community.:-)
Still do not understand if Illegal youngsters can have EAD or path to citizenship with out any legislation, what is stopping BO to issue an order to recaputre the lost visa numbers due to non-working USCIS!. No votes from us soon! they still need to wait 5 more years. That is the only reason. And other Indian origins as soon as they become citizens, they have no concerns about their country or country men.
Reid never made statement about HR 3012. Schumer showed lot of interest. So no one knew whether Reid is opposing or favoring the bill. Without knowing his intention it is difficult to predict the bill. So we have to really wait and see for Lame Duck. ** is still positive about the bill. They may have basis for that.
As it stands now, illegal people would have EAD but not path to citizenship. The reason for doing Executive order for illegal is because that is vote booster among Hispanic people. Seems they care about their fellow citizens when something is done to help them. Doing something about legal immigration would be to help Indian/Chinese. They have very small influence in terms of votes and seems these communities do not care whether H1 people get Green card or not. They are busy and happy in their own lives and do not care about H1s.
I may sound like a citizen of fantasyland but I think the tight Senate race in Massachusetts is exerting an influence on the dynamics of this Bill.The Democrats negotiated with Sen.Grassley and the Republicans to let the Irish provisions move forward but are reluctant to bring it to the floor now as its passage may allow Sen.Scott Brown to claim at the least partial credit for the Bill. Once the elections are over there is no such pressure and the Democrats can bring the Irish provisions to the Senate floor and along with HR 3012 the Bill will pass smoothly.
Can't they just pass 3012 now and Irish provision after election ?
Now its too late to pass H.R.3012,because senate is on recess until Nov 13th 2012(after elections) Irish Provision was one of the concern for Sen Grassley, so they may not mix up these two again. But in Politicks or tricks anything can happen.
To rupen86
The Democrats hold the upper hand in the Senate and will need to see the E-3 provisions clear first before the HR 3012 is voted on. My theory is not without its pitfalls though.We already know via Irish Central about Sens.Vitter & Sessions about their objections to the Irish provisions and although the vote on the Bill itself is up or down simple majority without the 60 vote affirmative threshold they can still block the motion to bring it to the Floor.Also no information from the House about their opinion on the Irish provisions.As far as I know there has been no attempt from either side to propose a companion Bill in the House
This theory does not hold well though. Democrats already know that passing E-3 in house is going to be challenging. So, if that does not pass the house then they won't allow 3012 to pass? Republicans are not that much in love with 3012 that they would let E-3 to pass because they want 3012 to pass.
E-3 is a major obstacle to HR 3012. Schumer came up with adding the E-3 visas to 3012 to calm his Irish consitutents, worried about the bill having nothing for the Irish. There will be no 3012 without E-3. The deal reported by ** is for an up-or-down vote on the E-3. That will not happen. Harry Reid is not about to shut down the Senate for such a small bill. (Specially during the lame duck with so many pending legislation - postal bill, transportation bill, VAWA reauthorization, farm bill, taxmaggeddon, just to name a few).
Attorney Ron the fear mongerer this is from his website. How he wrote about H.R.3012 on Sept 20th 2012 and how he wrote on Sept 21st 2012. Just compare the exactly opposite views. so never believe this speculative guys.
Current Updates on H.R.3012 thread Source :-http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17688&page=47&p=78858&highlight=# post78858
Sept 20th 2012
I may be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure that I heard correctly this morning that Congress is about to recess and that they are giving up on the farm bill and the transportation bill until after the election. If so, then that's all folks. If they shut down now, they will have at least five major legislative items to deal with in the lame duck session and there won't be time for anything else.
Sept 21st 2012.
The House is gone until after the election. If HR3012 is unacceptable to Grassley without his amendment, then IF it were to pass the Senate somehow, the House won't be there to vote on the amended bill. We can say with absolute certainty that HR3012 cannot be acted upon until mid-November if it is acted upon by the Congress at all.
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