Discussion of Bills that remove the Per Country Limits - H.R.3012, H,R. 213

[Pedro Gonzales]

I've updated Spec's earlier analysis to show what the numbers are without taking inventory into account. Someone else, please look into it and see if the inventory would mean less demand from some of these categories.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

For Unreserved visas (those for IC initially), no Country may use more than 85% of that total.

For Reserved visas (to be split between Mexico, Philippines & ROW), no Country may use more than 25% of that total.

The limits would be:

-------------- FY2012 -- FY2013 -- FY2014 -- FY2015 on
Reserved ------ 15% ----- 10% ---- 10% ---------- 0%
Total Visas -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040

Reserved ------ 6,006 --- 4,004 --- 4,004 ------- 0
25% ----------- 1,502 --- 1,001 --- 1,001 ------- 0

Unreserved --- 34,034 -- 36,036 -- 36,036 -- 40,040
85% ----------28,929 -- 30,631 -- 30,631 -- 40,040

Effectively, for FY2012 that would initially be :

China ------- 5,105 (34,034 minus 28,929)
India ------- 28,929 (85% limit)
Mexico ------- 1,502 (25% limit)
Philippines -- 1,502 (25% limit)
ROW ---------- 3,002 (Remainder)
Total ------- 40,040

[pdmay2008]

Good hear gurus

HR 3012 moved to next stage.
CO comments on upcoming VBs..
485 inventory(Little disappointment, but can live with the facts).

I see a big light bulb at the end of the tunnel, But some one has to turn it ON. Please help on HR 3012 every one. We will all benefit by this.

[nishant2200]

Thank you all.

I noticed lot of you wishing well for me, and my personal sake in next bulletin.

I do not say much on HR 3012 and other laws here as this is predictions calculations thread, but yes, that is the only real hope for EB3I as well as EB2I as once economy improves, SO might be less and porting increase. I am just one of countless people, I got lucky maybe, but there are scores with families and kids waiting.

I will again repeat a sentence in my earlier post, as it got lost in the celebration: "I will also say that keep emotions in check, until the event happens, it's all just probability, high or low. I know it's difficult, but I would like to repeat, we should not take it for granted."

[grnwtg]

Yes Nishant..thats true..over optimism might lead to severe disappointment.

Thank you all.

I noticed lot of you wishing well for me, and my personal sake in next bulletin.

I do not say much on HR 3012 and other laws here as this is predictions calculations thread, but yes, that is the only real hope for EB3I as well as EB2I as once economy improves, SO might be less and porting increase. I am just one of countless people, I got lucky maybe, but there are scores with families and kids waiting.

I will again repeat a sentence in my earlier post, as it got lost in the celebration: "I will also say that keep emotions in check, until the event happens, it's all just probability, high or low. I know it's difficult, but I would like to repeat, we should not take it for granted."

[dreamer]

Pedro/Spec,

Thanks for your time and analysis on this. Just curious, is there a reason why you have allocated max 85% limit to just India as both IC are following same priority date movement?

I've updated Spec's earlier analysis to show what the numbers are without taking inventory into account. Someone else, please look into it and see if the inventory would mean less demand from some of these categories.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

For Unreserved visas (those for IC initially), no Country may use more than 85% of that total.

For Reserved visas (to be split between Mexico, Philippines & ROW), no Country may use more than 25% of that total.

The limits would be:

-------------- FY2012 -- FY2013 -- FY2014 -- FY2015 on
Reserved ------ 15% ----- 10% ---- 10% ---------- 0%
Total Visas -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040 -- 40,040

Reserved ------ 6,006 --- 4,004 --- 4,004 ------- 0
25% ----------- 1,502 --- 1,001 --- 1,001 ------- 0

Unreserved --- 34,034 -- 36,036 -- 36,036 -- 40,040
85% ----------28,929 -- 30,631 -- 30,631 -- 40,040

Effectively, for FY2012 that would initially be :

China ------- 5,105 (34,034 minus 28,929)
India ------- 28,929 (85% limit)
Mexico ------- 1,502 (25% limit)
Philippines -- 1,502 (25% limit)
ROW ---------- 3,002 (Remainder)
Total ------- 40,040

[Reader]

I do not think anything fundamental has changed in terms of policy. I think this has all do with replenishment of pipeline. I also think that this is closely tied to 3012 which would indicate that 3012 doesn't have as slim chance as we may think.

I think it is purely for the purpose of collecting the inventory with the assumption that there would be ~30K visas available by the end of the FY. As for 3012, anything might happen as it has to pass the full house voting. I don't think CO would be making any of his decision based on 3012 at this point.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro/Spec,

Thanks for your time and analysis on this. Just curious, is there a reason why you have allocated max 85% limit to just India as both IC are following same priority date movement?

I didn't have the time to look at the inventory report, but the assumption is that India is India to China EB2 demand is 85%:15% or higher. If that isn't true, China will of course take more than 15% and India less than 85%. The other inherent assumption is that India/China will not catch up with ROW/M/P within the transition time period. If it does, that % drops further.

[sandeep11]

Nishant...Bulls Eye...Murthy confirmed, I guess we take it and start preparing our documents....Thanks.

something does seem afoot. (3012...?) It is very uncharacteristic. I will again maintain, this is it, this might be the last golden opportunity for Mr. CO before various factors like visibility into demand function, hammering of service requests, pre-adjudication being fast by USCIS, etc catches up.

I will also say that keep emotions in check, until the event happens, it's all just probability, high or low. I know it's difficult, but I would like to repeat, we should not take it for granted.

[qesehmk]

Nothing is certain. But its possible that CO wants to be prepared for passage of 3012. I don't claim to know future. I am just saying that is a possibility.

I think it is purely for the purpose of collecting the inventory with the assumption that there would be ~30K visas available by the end of the FY. As for 3012, anything might happen as it has to pass the full house voting. I don't think CO would be making any of his decision based on 3012 at this point.

familyguy I found EB2IC related text very interesting. Its almost verbatim to what we have been saying except he wants the movement to occur by Feb rather than March.

Employment Second:
China and India: Significant cut‐off date movement between now and February. Such movement will not be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and there is a possibility for retrogression of the cut‐off during the summer months.

[grnwtg]

Thats should be the good strategy, last few years, they have lot of application so it made sense to move in the last few months, this year they want to build but inventory, it would be good for them and us if they move dates in first 4-5 months itself. Definetly strategy should be changed as situation is changed.

Nothing is certain. But its possible that CO wants to be prepared for passage of 3012. I don't claim to know future. I am just saying that is a possibility.



familyguy I found EB2IC related text very interesting. Its almost verbatim to what we have been saying except he wants the movement to occur by Feb rather than March.

[BALI01]

How does this sound for EB3 IC ? Will we see any dramatic changes in the next 3 years?

[skpanda]

yes.. EB3IC will get 34K in 2012, 36K in 2013 and 36K in 2014. After that, if EB3IC did not catch up with EB3-ROW, all the GCs will go to EB3IC till they catch up with ROW.

That is far better than 5.6K that EB3IC gets now.

How does this sound for EB3 IC ? Will we see any dramatic changes in the next 3 years?

[dreamer]

Pedro,

Thanks for the update. You are correct, I just checked the certified labor data for FY2008, looks like India have 23,503 and China have 4,154. India:China ratio do come up to 85:15. I hope this bill be law sometime soon.

Do you know when it will be presented on the floor/senate?

I didn't have the time to look at the inventory report, but the assumption is that India is India to China EB2 demand is 85%:15% or higher. If that isn't true, China will of course take more than 15% and India less than 85%. The other inherent assumption is that India/China will not catch up with ROW/M/P within the transition time period. If it does, that % drops further.

[polarbear]

This is a great step and will definitely help EB3 the most. I hope HR3012 continues to gain traction.
The grass roots support by all EB-India was definitely awesome as seen on various forums. However, while grass roots support is key, also important is strategy,organization and advocacy on Capitol Hill since both go hand in hand. Cannot deny a hats off to you-know-who for that. Even our friends in ROW, who are vehemently against this bill, are acknowledging that. The organization and coordination is important and I am glad that is there in this case.
Anyway, bottomline is I hope the road ahead is smooth.

[nishant2200]

Just got dumped some trash work to do from manager. Can't help but feel to say that, man, soon it's going to be time to show the finger to you sir. have fun while you can.

and if the HR 3012 kind of stuff passes, then no longer will sustained abuse of indians and chinese continue, treat us with freaking respect!

[grnwtg]

Thats true..this is kind of slavery... usa should do big amendments and i was even thinking if it will be of any help if one approaches Human Rights and tell how few employers suck blood from the consultants...
One of my friend was working as a java developer for $19/hr with a threat that employer will report to uscis ( which was mindless threat which he was frighted), this continued for 3 yrs i guess to find an opportunity which is almost triple rate.

Just got dumped some trash work to do from manager. Can't help but feel to say that, man, soon it's going to be time to show the finger to you sir. have fun while you can.

and if the HR 3012 kind of stuff passes, then no longer will sustained abuse of indians and chinese continue, treat us with freaking respect!

[sai999]

Thank you all.

I noticed lot of you wishing well for me, and my personal sake in next bulletin.

I do not say much on HR 3012 and other laws here as this is predictions calculations thread, but yes, that is the only real hope for EB3I as well as EB2I as once economy improves, SO might be less and porting increase. I am just one of countless people, I got lucky maybe, but there are scores with families and kids waiting.

I will again repeat a sentence in my earlier post, as it got lost in the celebration: "I will also say that keep emotions in check, until the event happens, it's all just probability, high or low. I know it's difficult, but I would like to repeat, we should not take it for granted."

Nishant2200 i must say i am really really appreciate on the updates your are providing to the immigration community.i don't know how you are getting this much time to provide the updates .. kudos to you and your effort.

q,Teddy , spec, veni and all other great gurus...thanks a lot for your valuable information.

By the way nishant2200 with your info regarding medicals i am getting all shots freely from community health center (which saves all most 500$ for me and my wife) once again thanks a lot.

[bhala5]

Hi Teddy/Nishant/Qesehmk

Thank you for your great service and I may posting wrong place but trying to get answer from Guru's, please advise..

Judiciary commitee approved HR 704 bill 3 month ago and not yet been submitted to house floor as of now, Will that same thing happen HR 3012?, I wish to approve this HR 3012, but trying to understand the procedure after commiitee approve ?

The U.S. House Judiciary Committee Wednesday approved the Security and Fairness Enhancement for America Act (HR 704)
Committee approves bill to eliminate per-country limits on high-skilled immigrants (HR 3012)

[yesman]

CO has indicated both in Nov bulletin and with the information released today that it will move for next couple of months in large numbers, and that it will move to ATLEAST Mar 1. So, I'd assume that a couple of month's movement beyond March is a possibility.

My understanding (of the opinions expressed in this forum) is that any movement beyond April 2008 is probably motivated by the desire to allow more people to file for 485 or preparation for H.R 3012 or something like that.

Friends,

As per CO:

The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
(Source Murthy law firm)

Does that mean he is going to move the dates beyond March/April 2008 in Jan 2012 VB?

Is there any chance that he will move the dates to June/July 2008 in Jan 2012 VB?

[JJcalifornian]

Is that HR3012 pass through the house?

The bill, which passed by a voice vote in the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday, creates what he says is a fairer system that is “first come, first serve.”

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politic...ffetz.html.csp

Washington • Federal law currently restricts how many highly skilled foreign workers can be hired from select countries, but that could change under legislation by Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah.

Chaffetz’s Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, which advanced to the House floor Thursday, would drop the caps for country of origin that now limit how many workers can come from, say, India or England.

Chaffetz, who first ran for office on a platform of clamping down on illegal immigration, says his legislation fixes a problem with visas that hurts American businesses.

The bill, which passed by a voice vote in the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday, creates what he says is a fairer system that is “first come, first serve.”

“By removing per-country limits, American companies will be able to access the best talent,” Chaffetz said. “This legislation is pro-growth, pro-jobs, and pro-family.”

Chaffetz’s bill does not increase the number of visas available for highly skilled workers. The legislation is co-sponsored by Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas.

[tanu_75]

Is that HR3012 pass through the house?

The bill, which passed by a voice vote in the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday, creates what he says is a fairer system that is “first come, first serve.”

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politic...ffetz.html.csp

Washington • Federal law currently restricts how many highly skilled foreign workers can be hired from select countries, but that could change under legislation by Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah.

Chaffetz’s Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, which advanced to the House floor Thursday, would drop the caps for country of origin that now limit how many workers can come from, say, India or England.

Chaffetz, who first ran for office on a platform of clamping down on illegal immigration, says his legislation fixes a problem with visas that hurts American businesses.

The bill, which passed by a voice vote in the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday, creates what he says is a fairer system that is “first come, first serve.”

“By removing per-country limits, American companies will be able to access the best talent,” Chaffetz said. “This legislation is pro-growth, pro-jobs, and pro-family.”

Chaffetz’s bill does not increase the number of visas available for highly skilled workers. The legislation is co-sponsored by Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas.

If you read the comments in that article, it is clear why nothing has happened on immigration in almost 10 years. No lawmaker wants to touch this with a 10 foot pole. Kudos to Chaffetz for doing this. Let's hope for the best.

[girish989]

This is the first time I am seeing immigrants defending any bill and answering to the anti immigrant rhetoric. I hope this bill passes and brings some relief to all of us.

[kd2008]

EB1 category was excluded from the removal of per country caps according to Lofgren's amendment. They agreed to this as EB1-ROW would have faced cut off dates if the bill passed as is. That is the only change.

The above is incorrect. A friend on "that forum" explained,

Actually the amendment is only for transition rules. The country cap is removed from EB1 as well, but there is no transition period for EB1. It is right away.

The reason for this is that EB1 is current and it benefits the US the most and there is no impact to anyone as everyone is current in EB1.

The amendment is to apply the transition rules to only EB2 and EB3. All others will be without country caps from the beginning.

This does not have any impact to anyone because, other than EB2 and EB3, all others are current anyway all the time.

[parsvnath]

Not to dash everybodys hope....This website is claiming that moving dates to March 1st 2008 is a rumor

From immigration-law website:

10/28/2011: Annual Immigrant Visa Number Limit for FY 2012 by Family-Based and Employment-Based Immigration Categories

Thus far, the EB-2 immigrant visa number movement was not too bad in the first two months of FY 2012 (October and November 2011). This overall data is posted for readers who are not too familiar with the the annual immigrant visa number limits. Lately proposed elimination of per country numerical limitation in employment-based immigration has raised a lot of issues and controversies out there as triggered by H.R. 3012 which was just passed in the House Judiciary Committee yesterday and which will be on the full House floor for the final House action sooner or later. This bill was introduced by a conservative Republican Congressman Chaffetz from Utah and co-sponsored by the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Congressman Lamar Smith who has been known to be ultra conservative. In passing this bill in the House Judiciary, however, one of the most powerful Democratic House member in the immigration legislation, Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren of California joined the group as another co-sponsor, turning the bill into a bi-partisan bill. As readers are well aware of, Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren introduced in the House a similar bill in a different context quite earlier, which has been pending in the House. Accordingly, her joining of other co-sponsors of this bill will impact her own pending bill one way or another, even though her own bill will still remain alive in the House. (For the summary of her own bill, please click here.) Reportedly, she joined Represeantives Chaffetz and Smith on a condition to accept her amendment to the bill putting a cap of three years for the legislation, and the House Judiciary Committee thus passed this bill, as amended.
This legislation is controversial in the Rest of World (All Other Countries category) community in the immigrant visa bulletin and EB-3 immigrant community as the immigrant visas available for these groups will be affected in monthly visa allocations and their I-485 waiting times by the elimination of per country numberical limitation for which Chinese and Indian EB-2 have the highest stake. This reporter has reminded the readers frequently "life is an irony" in immigration legislation.
Soon, the State Department will release the Visa Bulletin for the month of December 2011. There is an unconfirmed information that the EB-2 cut-off dates for China and India may further move forward to March 1, 2008. At this juncture, this informaton remains a "rumor" in that it cannot be confirmed and verified. However, we will find out the truth soon. Please stay tuned to this web site for the release of December Visa Bulletin. At this time, there is a confirmed prediction of a significant cut-off date movement between now and February. Such movement will not be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and there is a possibility for retrogression of the cut-off during the summer months.Weather is getting a little bit chilly out there as we are approaching the Winter season. In this country, Holloween is one of the most exciting seasonal event a year for the kids with pumkins all around. Happy Holloweens, readers!

[nishant2200]

The OH Law firm was definitely not present in person at this stakeholders forum, and are playing cautious. After putting this up, he seems to have updated it, and hence he has put in blue: "At this time, there is a confirmed prediction of a significant cut-off date movement between now and February." see the actual website.

Murthy says this and Ron Gotcher doesnt dispute. My own lawyer confirmed this I have posted earlier on this thread his reply. The deal is sealed in terms of this what was said by CO. Of course the real deal is never sealed until the move happens.

Not to dash everybodys hope....This website is claiming that moving dates to March 1st 2008 is a rumor

From immigration-law website:

10/28/2011: Annual Immigrant Visa Number Limit for FY 2012 by Family-Based and Employment-Based Immigration Categories

Thus far, the EB-2 immigrant visa number movement was not too bad in the first two months of FY 2012 (October and November 2011). This overall data is posted for readers who are not too familiar with the the annual immigrant visa number limits. Lately proposed elimination of per country numerical limitation in employment-based immigration has raised a lot of issues and controversies out there as triggered by H.R. 3012 which was just passed in the House Judiciary Committee yesterday and which will be on the full House floor for the final House action sooner or later. This bill was introduced by a conservative Republican Congressman Chaffetz from Utah and co-sponsored by the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Congressman Lamar Smith who has been known to be ultra conservative. In passing this bill in the House Judiciary, however, one of the most powerful Democratic House member in the immigration legislation, Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren of California joined the group as another co-sponsor, turning the bill into a bi-partisan bill. As readers are well aware of, Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren introduced in the House a similar bill in a different context quite earlier, which has been pending in the House. Accordingly, her joining of other co-sponsors of this bill will impact her own pending bill one way or another, even though her own bill will still remain alive in the House. (For the summary of her own bill, please click here.) Reportedly, she joined Represeantives Chaffetz and Smith on a condition to accept her amendment to the bill putting a cap of three years for the legislation, and the House Judiciary Committee thus passed this bill, as amended.
This legislation is controversial in the Rest of World (All Other Countries category) community in the immigrant visa bulletin and EB-3 immigrant community as the immigrant visas available for these groups will be affected in monthly visa allocations and their I-485 waiting times by the elimination of per country numberical limitation for which Chinese and Indian EB-2 have the highest stake. This reporter has reminded the readers frequently "life is an irony" in immigration legislation.
Soon, the State Department will release the Visa Bulletin for the month of December 2011. There is an unconfirmed information that the EB-2 cut-off dates for China and India may further move forward to March 1, 2008. At this juncture, this informaton remains a "rumor" in that it cannot be confirmed and verified. However, we will find out the truth soon. Please stay tuned to this web site for the release of December Visa Bulletin. At this time, there is a confirmed prediction of a significant cut-off date movement between now and February. Such movement will not be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and there is a possibility for retrogression of the cut-off during the summer months.Weather is getting a little bit chilly out there as we are approaching the Winter season. In this country, Holloween is one of the most exciting seasonal event a year for the kids with pumkins all around. Happy Holloweens, readers!