Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[Prabhas]

Mr O said it plain and transparent, that he is going to work on EO and declare by the end of this year. He will also work Republicans and get a bill so that they replace the EO.

So, we gotto just wait and see what he has got for legal Immigrants.

Hang in tight!

Cheers,

V

[gs1968]

Do we know if unused EB visas have been given to FB?

Even if EB and FB in a given year have wasted unused visas, recapture can only work with a new act (like AC21 for example) passed by the Congress. That's my understanding. The president cannot act against the law...he has only so much wiggle room.

Edit: Also, isn't this analysis very simplistic? Do we know for example if the demand in 1991 was actually 140K? I am betting it wasn't. So how can you say 80K visas were wasted that year? On the same measure, you are undercounting the EB quota in 2013 for example. That year, the quota was in fact 158K and we received only 3K more, not 21K.

If we get down to such details, it will become a hard affair to determine exactly how many visas were wasted and how many of those are attributable to the USCIS alone.

Finally, my understanding was that AC21 passed in 2000 has already captured a good chunk of visas wasted in the 1990s.

Spec/kanmani/Q/informed souls can comment further.

The NumbersUSA flyer I quoted indicates that unused visas from either category can be used in the subsequent fiscal year and there is no provision for a perpetual rollover till they are all used. The 140000 number is also a ceiling and not a target

On a different note the immigration system worked very well for the refugee quota last year as they almost met the 70000 ceiling for FY-2014 (69987).

[Spectator]

Do we know if unused EB visas have been given to FB?

Even if EB and FB in a given year have wasted unused visas, recapture can only work with a new act (like AC21 for example) passed by the Congress. That's my understanding. The president cannot act against the law...he has only so much wiggle room.

Edit: Also, isn't this analysis very simplistic? Do we know for example if the demand in 1991 was actually 140K? I am betting it wasn't. So how can you say 80K visas were wasted that year? On the same measure, you are undercounting the EB quota in 2013 for example. That year, the quota was in fact 158K and we received only 3K more, not 21K.

If we get down to such details, it will become a hard affair to determine exactly how many visas were wasted and how many of those are attributable to the USCIS alone.

Finally, my understanding was that AC21 passed in 2000 has already captured a good chunk of visas wasted in the 1990s.

Spec/kanmani/Q/informed souls can comment further.

sportsfan,

As you say, it is a little more complicated than that.

Firstly, the existing law already deals with unused visa numbers in a FY. Since they are allocated to the other half of EB/FB the next FY, they can't be said to be wasted.

Secondly, because of the existing law, any calculation would have to calculate the "net" wastage - i.e. unused but never came back to EB either via the existing law or through previous recapture legislation.

130k EB visas (from FY1999/FY2000) were recaptured as part of AC21 (this document outlines when they were recaptured) and a further 50k EB visas were recaptured for use by Schedule A workers in a 2005 Bill.

Recapture proposals have always talked about recapture from FY1992 onwards. From then to date, about 399k visas were unused in EB. This includes the recapture of the 130k in FY2002, FY2005 and FY2007.

It does not count the 50k recaptured for Schedule A, so the figure available reduces to 349k.

In the same period, EB has received a further 289k extra numbers from FB. That would leave a net figure of around 60k (± 5k) that were unused but have never come back to EB through the existing mechanisms.

FB would benefit more, since many of the "unused" visas allotted to them did not increase the actual allocation FB received (due to the much more complex calculation of the FB allocation). That is not a consideration for EB - they receive the full amount from FB.

[qesehmk]

Spec - Thanks. Very useful.
I wonder if they will also consider unused in FB that were NOT spilled over to EB.

sportsfan,

As you say, it is a little more complicated than that.

Firstly, the existing law already deals with unused visa numbers in a FY. Since they are allocated to the other half of EB/FB the next FY, they can't be said to be wasted.

Secondly, because of the existing law, any calculation would have to calculate the "net" wastage - i.e. unused but never came back to EB either via the existing law or through previous recapture legislation.

130k EB visas (from FY1999/FY2000) were recaptured as part of AC21 (this document outlines when they were recaptured) and a further 50k EB visas were recaptured for use by Schedule A workers in a 2005 Bill.

Recapture proposals have always talked about recapture from FY1992 onwards. From then to date, about 399k visas were unused in EB. This includes the recapture of the 130k in FY2002, FY2005 and FY2007.

It does not count the 50k recaptured for Schedule A, so the figure available reduces to 349k.

In the same period, EB has received a further 289k extra numbers from FB. That would leave a net figure of around 60k (± 5k) that were unused but have never come back to EB through the existing mechanisms.

FB would benefit more, since many of the "unused" visas allotted to them did not increase the actual allocation FB received (due to the much more complex calculation of the FB allocation). That is not a consideration for EB - they receive the full amount from FB.

[Spectator]

Spec - Thanks. Very useful.
I wonder if they will also consider unused in FB that were NOT spilled over to EB.

Q,

Unless I have misunderstood your point, there are no unused FB visas that did not spill over to EB. EB gets the benefit of every unused FB visa the following FY.

INA 201(d) specifies that the worldwide level of employment-based preference immigrants for a fiscal year is equal to:

140,000
plus family preference immigrant numbers that were unused during the previous fiscal year.

The determination of the EB and FB allocations for FY2004 is a good example of the difference between FB and EB.

Despite FB having an extra 88,482 available from under use in EB in FY2003, the calculation only resulted in a figure of 224,455. Since that was less than the minimum number of 226,000 the FB allocation for FY2004 was set at 226,000.

In contrast, EB had an extra 64,422 available due to FB under use in FY2003. That was fully applied on top of the 140,000 allocation and the EB allocation for FY2004 was set at 204,422.

[qesehmk]

EB gets the benefit of every unused FB visa the following FY.

Spec - this is true since 2007 onwards. I haven't tracked 1992-2007. But if you say so then it must be true.

Edit:

I just checked and it seems that this is true only since 2004 onwards. Prior to that there is significant FB wastage of visas that never was spilled over to EB. Just from 1998-2004 there is a 100K. So I would imagine between 1992-1998 another 100K or more. Thus I believe the total number of visa recapture could be 60K-260K (if there is one).

[gcq]

On the latest announcement by President that he will use EO on immigration.

1. He knows what immigration bill republicans are going to come up with.
2. He has nothing to lose by doing whatever he wants to do.
3. By appeasing to Hispanics and the next generation americans, Democrats will win in the long run if they go with executive order.

Remember what happened with DACA order. Republicans didn't make a noise about it after it was issued. Politicians will make noise only before an immigration law/EO is issued, not after that.

[gs1968]

Spec - this is true since 2007 onwards. I haven't tracked 1992-2007. But if you say so then it must be true.

Edit:

I just checked and it seems that this is true only since 2004 onwards. Prior to that there is significant FB wastage of visas that never was spilled over to EB. Just from 1998-2004 there is a 100K. So I would imagine between 1992-1998 another 100K or more. Thus I believe the total number of visa recapture could be 60K-260K (if there is one).

To Q
Irrespective of what the numbers are and how they are arrived at-the ultimate decision will lie in the hands of the Administration's legal team.Since the Republican outfits will fight every aspect of the EO tooth and nail, they will most likely go with what they can strongly defend in court. As you have already mentioned in a previous post-the legal immigration statutes are very clear with established precedent and any dramatic and novel interpretation after 25 years of the law being in place will raise a lot of questions

[qesehmk]

I agree gs1968. I am not knowledgeable enough to speculate if recapture is legally possible and whether there will be sufficient interest and force to make it happen.

I just laid out the uncaptured FB numbers between 1998-2004 and speculated on the one between 1992-1998.

To Q
Irrespective of what the numbers are and how they are arrived at-the ultimate decision will lie in the hands of the Administration's legal team.Since the Republican outfits will fight every aspect of the EO tooth and nail, they will most likely go with what they can strongly defend in court. As you have already mentioned in a previous post-the legal immigration statutes are very clear with established precedent and any dramatic and novel interpretation after 25 years of the law being in place will raise a lot of questions

[YTeleven]

Hope US will learn the lesson from this...
snapdeal-the-flourishing-company-america-passed-on-offers-a-lesson-about-immigration-reform

[gs1968]

I agree gs1968. I am not knowledgeable enough to speculate if recapture is legally possible and whether there will be sufficient interest and force to make it happen.

I just laid out the uncaptured FB numbers between 1998-2004 and speculated on the one between 1992-1998.

We will know the answers pretty soon


http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z4

[qesehmk]

There would be lessons here if Entrepreneurial success was a single variable function of Entrepreneurial quality of individuals. IMHO it is a function of
a) the law and order
b) free markets
c) size
d) the times
d) entrepreneurial quality

In that order.... the last being less than 5%. See that's why Buffett and Gates both say over and over that they wouldn't be anywhere nearly as successful had they been born in any other country.

Hope US will learn the lesson from this...
snapdeal-the-flourishing-company-america-passed-on-offers-a-lesson-about-immigration-reform

[gs1968]

Some action possible as early as next week

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014...n-as-early-as/

I wonder what the technology jobs through the state visa program is.Is that EB-based immigration?

It mentions a pathway to citizenship which would not be possible with deferred action which is merely delaying deportation.

Maybe tomorrow morning will bring more clarity from news outlets

P.S-This from Newsmax
In addition, a State Department immigrant visa program involving technology jobs would offer another half-million immigrants a path to citizenship, according to Fox. Spouses also would be helped by the program.

I think this refers to EB backlog clearance although the wording is still unclear

[YTeleven]

Some action possible as early as next week

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014...n-as-early-as/

I wonder what the technology jobs through the state visa program is.Is that EB-based immigration?

It mentions a pathway to citizenship which would not be possible with deferred action which is merely delaying deportation.

Maybe tomorrow morning will bring more clarity from news outlets

P.S-This from Newsmax
In addition, a State Department immigrant visa program involving technology jobs would offer another half-million immigrants a path to citizenship, according to Fox. Spouses also would be helped by the program.

I think this refers to EB backlog clearance although the wording is still unclear

It's a great news. We are almost there. Yes it includes EB immigration too.

[eb2ODer]

Sorry, but all this can be strategized clamour... until we hear it from the white horse's mouth.
Read the below from http://thehill.com/homenews/house/22...cted-next-week

The White House, however, pushed back on Fox News' report after its release.
"The President has not made a decision regarding the specific measures he will take to fix our broken immigration system," a White House spokesperson said in a statement. "In fact, he has not yet received final recommendations from the Department of Homeland Security. As the President has said previously, he is committed to taking action before the end of the year."

[qesehmk]

I wonder what the technology jobs through the state visa program is.Is that EB-based immigration?
..
In addition, a State Department immigrant visa program involving technology jobs would offer another half-million immigrants a path to citizenship, according to Fox. Spouses also would be helped by the program.

I think this refers to EB backlog clearance although the wording is still unclear

I think that's poor reporting. Most likely they are referring to visa recapture for EB categories. Half million sounds pretty good. We will see..

p.s. - On another note I have a real good feeling about the timing of this thing. This is the best time to make it happen for everybody.

[imdeng]

Any indications on the effective date of the EO? Was the original DACA immediately effective?

I would imagine that it would not be a good idea to leave a large time gap between announcement and effective date - will only give opportunity for opponents to raise hell. Once people start getting benefits, it is harder to campaign to take them away.

[qesehmk]

Executive action can be effective immediately. I think this will be effective immediately. Some parts of it may actually be retroactive. e.g. all people who came to US on or before ... etc etc.

Any indications on the effective date of the EO? Was the original DACA immediately effective?

I would imagine that it would not be a good idea to leave a large time gap between announcement and effective date - will only give opportunity for opponents to raise hell. Once people start getting benefits, it is harder to campaign to take them away.

[gs1968]

To Q

Bye-Bye backlog!.NumbersUSA is interpreting the report just like you say

https://www.numbersusa.com/news/repo...iens-next-week

The executive action would also extend a path to citizenship to 500,000 tech workers and their spouses.

[imdeng]

"Path to Citizenship" is a weird term to use for EB GCs. I wonder if they are talking about the same thing or is it something else? The 500K number would fit EB GCs. "State Dept Visa Program" is also a weird term. Although CO is officially a part of the State Dept - so that also fits somewhat with the EB GC program.

To Q

Bye-Bye backlog!.NumbersUSA is interpreting the report just like you say

https://www.numbersusa.com/news/repo...iens-next-week

The executive action would also extend a path to citizenship to 500,000 tech workers and their spouses.

[imdeng]

I know there is a letdown hiding somewhere in the details - but I am so excited about the EO prospects. Imagine - No Backlog!!

[gs1968]

I agree that all of this is very confusing but we will know soon. We should also remember that any executive order although immune from the legislative except by means of cutting funding can still be subject to judicial review.As I mentioned a few posts ago,the right leaning outfits (N-USA,FAIR,CIS etc) believe that the law on visa recapture is quite clear and there is going to be significant push back from them.If they decide to fight this legally and have their case ready,they can file an appeal and get what is called a stay of implementation till the legal validity is clarified. We all know how long it takes for these cases to wind their way up the judicial ladder. This may also be a reason why the H-4 EAD issue is in the back burner

[qesehmk]

So here is why I thought this is the best time to make EO happen.

A) The elections are behind now. So nobody gets burnt immediately by acting on it.
B) By doing it now - republicans may think that this is a good way to push this issue behind for 2016. The far right will make usual noises but overall GOP will be happy.
C) The economy gets benefited with a boost of immigration because it lowers the wage for large employers (although it will kill the small businesses who depend on slave labor under or near minimum wage). Net net I think it helps economy.
D) Obama looks victorious and dems can say to latinos ... look we delivered. Better late than never. One reason dems lost so heavy recently was that latinos were turned off and didn't turn up for vote.

Well for whatever reason if EB backlog gets flushed ... that will be a great relief for a lot of folks. Good luck guys.

[kkruna]

"Path to Citizenship" is a weird term to use for EB GCs. I wonder if they are talking about the same thing or is it something else? The 500K number would fit EB GCs. "State Dept Visa Program" is also a weird term. Although CO is officially a part of the State Dept - so that also fits somewhat with the EB GC program.

Also why would it be limited to "tech industry" alone? It is interpretation of the reporter who may not be well versed on immigration matters.

On the face of it it doesn't look like deliberate leak "to gather reaction" - normally such leaks capture the gist well.

Only takeaway is the number 500K approx for EB.

I find it queer to see the mention of "State Department". It's not in keeping with rest of storyline (Obama and EO) and almost pops in as "discrete object" so it probably reflects some part of the plan. Reco by State Department?

[qesehmk]

They are calling it a path to citizenship - which technically is correct but the question is where will the numbers come from.

Last time there was a visa recapture - it was via a legislation. I am not intelligent or knowledgeable enough to say that the president can in his authority ask DoS to issue more visas. Probably he can because if you read carefully any visa bulletin - it talks about the visa limit as "at least". So perhaps there is no legal upper bound on the number of visas. Perhaps Spec (our alter ego for CO) can talk to this. But I think he is busy with something!

To Q

Bye-Bye backlog!.NumbersUSA is interpreting the report just like you say

https://www.numbersusa.com/news/repo...iens-next-week

The executive action would also extend a path to citizenship to 500,000 tech workers and their spouses.