Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[Jonty Rhodes]

My worry is that if Democrats lose majority in Senate, than it would be even harder for the President to issue an EO in December because his authority will be severely challenged and he won't be able to get anything significant done on immigration at all. Those states where Democrats are in a tight race, their Republican rivals are already running ad campaigns telling their voter base that President is going to issue EO anyways, it does not matter whether he does it now or after November. Their point is that timing of EO is immaterial if President's intention is to issue an EO.

This is what New Hampshire Senate Candidate Scott Brown said, "Make no mistake: President Obama plans to grant amnesty; it's just that he will cynically wait until after the election so as not to harm Senate Democrats like Jeanne Shaheen." Scott Brown now trails Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen by only two percentage points, after polls in July suggested a gap of more than 12 points.

My feeling is this. I don't think that President's delaying the EO would have any different impact on the election results. But if Democrats lose the majority in Senate, then we should all bid good bye to any kind of immigration reform. GOP will not allow any significant immigration reform to happen. If Republicans are majority in Senate then one small possibility is that House may push its own watered down version of CIR (without any significant relief for illegals) and send it for vote in Senate. But in that case, even if the Senate passes the bill, President would veto it because BO will surely not sign a republican proposed legislation.

In this mess, I have a zero hope of anything getting done for legal immigration. Not that I had high hopes before, but it would be almost impossible then.

[nbk1976]

Average wait time for EB2I is 6 yrs; EB3I, it is 12. If the wait seems too long, just immigrate to Canada. The process over there just takes a few months.

None of us can vote; and there aren't enough legal immigrants (Indians and others) in this country to influence the politicians who are only looking at their political future vis-a-vis the largely hispanic illegal immigrants and the growing native hispanics who have a lot more political power today. Policy discussions are pointless. Like the weather, we have neither control nor influence over it. The only thing we should be talking about are good advice on immigration matters, personal experiences in porting/AC21, discussing known cases of self-employment, etc.

[PD2008AUG25]

My worry is that if Democrats lose majority in Senate, than it would be even harder for the President to issue an EO in December because his authority will be severely challenged and he won't be able to get anything significant done on immigration at all.

I think he has painted himself into a corner so deep that he will have to do something. Activists are cursing him for delaying it for 6 weeks, imagine if it were to be cancelled entirely. Only thing that matters is his legal authority. If he is doing something that is unprecedented, let's not forget he has faced unprecedented obstructionism bordering racism.

[imdeng]

I was searching for some other stuff and landed on to some congressional testimony for the attempted 2007 CIR. It was fun to note that people were talking about increasing DV to 110K.

Anyways - after reading bunch of stuff - my personal opinion (which matters exactly zilch - but still) - is that an expanded DACA is coming for sure. The legal authority to do so seems to be there. Since original DACA was not challenged, it is likely that the new one will not be either except for the usual shouting from the rooftops.

The question that remains is whether this EO will have anything for Legal immigration. Unfortunately, unlike DACA, both Visa Recapture and Dependent Counting are in the legal grey zone - solid arguments on both sides on whether they can be done without congressional action. If the Obama team wants to be foolproof from a court challenge, they may pass on both of these. OTOH - they may pass undetected among the war on DACA expansion - and might even attract some much needed support from large business groups. So who knows!

[gs1968]

I was searching for some other stuff and landed on to some congressional testimony for the attempted 2007 CIR. It was fun to note that people were talking about increasing DV to 110K.

Anyways - after reading bunch of stuff - my personal opinion (which matters exactly zilch - but still) - is that an expanded DACA is coming for sure. The legal authority to do so seems to be there. Since original DACA was not challenged, it is likely that the new one will not be either except for the usual shouting from the rooftops.

The question that remains is whether this EO will have anything for Legal immigration. Unfortunately, unlike DACA, both Visa Recapture and Dependent Counting are in the legal grey zone - solid arguments on both sides on whether they can be done without congressional action. If the Obama team wants to be foolproof from a court challenge, they may pass on both of these. OTOH - they may pass undetected among the war on DACA expansion - and might even attract some much needed support from large business groups. So who knows!

All the lawyers have gone silent on this issue now. I am not so sure that the interpretation of the EB/FB or DV numerical limits is in a grey zone.We have to be wary of ex-Congressmen and ex-INS officials/counsel who are either lobbyists or immigration lawyers now who are probably saying things that will please their constituency but did not/could not do anything about the law when they had a chance to do so. It will be difficult to legally defend a dramatic and wide-reaching reinterpretation of a statute in force for a quarter of a century. One would assume that in the time period following the passage of the law,the INS would have done detailed rule making in consultation with the administration and lawmakers and all these points would have been clarified. The reclassification of dependants will lead to an increase in legal immigration by almost 750000 per year on top of the 1 million that already immigrate now and is unlikely to pass unnoticed. Moreover then Sens Simpson (R) and Deconcini (D) are still alive from the Senate conference committee and would be available to testify if needed. Rep.Lamar Smith from TX was also on the conference committee and so was Sen.(then Rep) Schumer. It is interesting to note that when Sen.Schumer drafted S.744 he re-classified Immediate relatives of Green Card holders in the same subsection as the relatives of US citizens implying that current law places numerical limits. The administration lawyers if they dig in for the long haul may take this through various judicial levels but knowing how the Republicans play the zero sum,rob peter to pay paul game they are not going to give up easily

BTW-with all the focus now moved to ISIS and the middle east, it remains to be sen if the president will be doing the EO.Anyway I read this link from a tweet I got a few days back

http://washingtonexaminer.com/why-di...ticle/2553046#!

I sincerely hope that there is some respite for backlogs in all the numerically limited categories but I feel that Congress has to amend the INA to allow this as the law/precedence is very clear

[anuprab]

I am so fed up with this whole immigration legislation and BO flip-flopping on this issue. I have lost faith in anything positive coming out of the administration. To my mind why link any legislative relief to legals with illegals is beyond comprehension although i know its all politically driven. is there anyway we legals can campaign our cause - simple things like allowing to file 485 even when dates are not current and move jobs in any fields...there must be groups already working towards this ..anyway i am ranting because as of this moment i am frustrated and dont see any outlet except forums like these..

[kumar777]

this is absolutely true.. Corporations need H1B slavery ( won't ask for big rises,promotions & mainly no need to worry about attrition).

"The problem with EB is it has absolutely no real backers. The vote bank is too small for Obama or ANY other politician to care. The corporations love H1B but they don't care about GCs. The corporations actually dont like GCs because then they lose their H1B slave. So obviously GOP is not going to support GCs."

[anuprab]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5806360.html

now its on and now its not...

[idiotic]

Last time it was "before the end of summer" .. every one wondering what end of summer really meant.. so now it is "before end of holiday season" .. Thanksgiving? Christmas? or Pongal (Farmer's festival in India around 2nd week of Jan)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...lawmakers-say/
Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) added that "We told [McDonough] we were mad because we thought for sure that he would act. We got promises that he's going to act as generously as he possibly can before the end of the holiday season."

[imdeng]

Holiday season = Christmas. There is some sense in setting a media narrative of a "Christmas present" and Republicans eventually being described as a Grinch and so on. Media tends to follow lazy stereotypes and patterns - and this seems to fit quite well.

There will be an EO after elections and before Christmas. It will be an expanded DACA. Whether it will have anything else for legals I don't know. However, any EO will essentially force Republican's hands into doing something - and any something they do has a higher likelihood of including stuff for legals.

This is a play for 2016 now. Everything will happen with the simple criteria - how will it affect 2016?

Last time it was "before the end of summer" .. every one wondering what end of summer really meant.. so now it is "before end of holiday season" .. Thanksgiving? Christmas? or Pongal (Farmer's festival in India around 2nd week of Jan)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...lawmakers-say/
Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) added that "We told [McDonough] we were mad because we thought for sure that he would act. We got promises that he's going to act as generously as he possibly can before the end of the holiday season."

[vizcard]

Obama delaying EO probably has to do with the funding bill more than anything else. He doesn't want to have to "negotiate" and the GOP can't fight an unknown. Cruz is trying to preempt BO's moves by trying to include anti- immigration language in the funding bill but so far he has no success. Any attempt to screw up the funding bill will shut down the govt and will consequently only hurt the GOP in the elections.

[idiotic]

Holiday season = Christmas. There is some sense in setting a media narrative of a "Christmas present" and Republicans eventually being described as a Grinch and so on. Media tends to follow lazy stereotypes and patterns - and this seems to fit quite well.

There will be an EO after elections and before Christmas. It will be an expanded DACA. Whether it will have anything else for legals I don't know. However, any EO will essentially force Republican's hands into doing something - and any something they do has a higher likelihood of including stuff for legals.

This is a play for 2016 now. Everything will happen with the simple criteria - how will it affect 2016?

Agreed. Remaining optimistic that there is something for iegals. If not, i will try to file 485 under illegal category Just kidding..

[aquatican]

It will be shameful if the illegals are given EADs ahead of legal immigrants stuck in backlog hell.
Having an EAD gives the illegals to work for any company/position which is something we do not get even after approved I140.

However the charm of 10 million votes will sway both parties.

Agreed. Remaining optimistic that there is something for illegals. If not, try to file 485 under illegal category Just kidding..

[idiotic]

It will be shameful if the illegals are given EADs ahead of legal immigrants stuck in backlog hell.
Having an EAD gives the illegals to work for any company/position which is something we do not get even after approved I140.

However the charm of 10 million votes will sway both parties.

I meant legals.. not illegals.. corrected post above.

Backlog hell is lesser problem than getting pulled over and deported with not being able to return to home for 10 years. It's not votes .. it's people

[imdeng]

Fully support your thoughts. We do have our problems - but they are not even in the same ball park as problems faced by the undocumented immigrants. We should support freedom and opportunity for all immigrants. I hope Obama goes crazy and gives EAD for 5-6 million folks irrespective of what he does for the EB community.

I meant legals.. not illegals.. corrected post above.

Backlog hell is lesser problem than getting pulled over and deported with not being able to return to home for 10 years. It's not votes .. it's people

[qesehmk]

Backlog hell is lesser problem than getting pulled over and deported with not being able to return to home for 10 years. It's not votes .. it's people

Very very wise words - my friend. I can't thank you enough for saying what you just said.

While politics is mostly about Votes and Power - the issues being tossed around in politics do have a strong human element to them. Lets not forget that.

[vizcard]

It will be shameful if the illegals are given EADs ahead of legal immigrants stuck in backlog hell.
Having an EAD gives the illegals to work for any company/position which is something we do not get even after approved I140.

However the charm of 10 million votes will sway both parties.

While I understand ur frustration, the illegals won't be able to vote even with the EAD so it's not necessarily about those votes. There are political reasons - no doubt - but it's a bigger thing about labels. The democrats want to be called pro-immigration which will deliver minority votes regardless of underlying policy (border security, amnesty, etc) and want to paint the GOP as anti-immigration. Ofcourse blowhards like King and Cruz make it easy to believe that.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Now, there is a talk about this. I think that President will have to issue some EO for illegals as Hispanic Caucus is really pushing him hard but if the situation worsens in Iraq then border security issue may gain more traction and if the Democrats lose the majority in Senate in November, we may see some flip-flop again from BO in December regarding EO. In any case, the chances for something happening for legals through EO is very very slim to almost zero. I don't expect anything happening for legal immigrants till CIR passes (who knows when) or some miracle happens.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/09/18/he...n-isis-attack/

[YTeleven]

so-close-to-america
Interesting video making...someone has to make similar for H4-EAD to get the attention of BO...

[migo79]

here is a kicker:
as Pres.Obama in greater consensus among the analysts that he will act to give parents of US born citizen, EAD/AP by the end of the year.
What will be the effect on legal resident that has a US born kid, he should also get an EAD/AP.
This could help many folks in EB3I who has been here for long time and has at least one US kid.

What do you think guys?

[skpanda]

Can you please provide the Source?

here is a kicker:
as Pres.Obama in greater consensus among the analysts that he will act to give parents of US born citizen, EAD/AP by the end of the year.
What will be the effect on legal resident that has a US born kid, he should also get an EAD/AP.
This could help many folks in EB3I who has been here for long time and has at least one US kid.

What do you think guys?

[migo79]

it wasn't a news rather than asking
i'm saying that if EO include EAD/AP for illegals who have US citizen children

Was that also apply for Legals or not.

[idiotic]

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/sites...0President.pdf

If republicans win Senate, Sen. Grassley will be head of Senate Judiciary committee incharge of any immigration laws. Explicitly stated out he is not for any proposal including increasing green cards for legal immigrants.

[gcq]

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/sites...0President.pdf

If republicans win Senate, Sen. Grassley will be head of Senate Judiciary committee incharge of any immigration laws. Explicitly stated out he is not for any proposal including increasing green cards for legal immigrants.

He and Steve King just signs off letters drafted by numbers usa.

[anuprab]

I know its hopeless but with no options I am hoping against hope if Obama will do something for legals if he ever takes executive action? any ideas experts?