Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[qesehmk]

True. I think dems will take any deal that makes 11m legals. I don't think they will get hung up on citizenship. But at the end of the day - GOP wants to deny dems any victory on this. Their position seems to be -this is a lose-lose topic for us to address. So we would rather lose by denying victory to dems. Politically speaking - it makes sense from their perspective. But that is hurting all the effort made so far. Which is why I have been "FOR" for any house legislation immigration because that creates some opening for negotiations. Otherwise this topic may die within next 9 months. After that next election cycle begins and no republican will touch this with a 10 foot pole.

I have a different take on it. If the Dems compromise with Repubs on the immigration stuff they agree then not only can they claim victory on the immigration front but will have a better barganing chip with the budget thing. If they can compromise on the immigration issue(Which is good for the economy by quickly clearing all high skilled workers) Dems can get obamacare, debt ceiling increase and a compromise on tax reform. Only if they can not care so much for the 11M illegals gaining citizenship. I am all for 11M people can get LPRs don't get me wrong but the bigger picture is what I am looking at. After 2014 they can always revisit the citizenship clause but for now just look at the bigger picture.

[druvraj]

True. I think dems will take any deal that makes 11m legals. I don't think they will get hung up on citizenship. But at the end of the day - GOP wants to deny dems any victory on this. Their position seems to be -this is a lose-lose topic for us to address. So we would rather lose by denying victory to dems. Politically speaking - it makes sense from their perspective. But that is hurting all the effort made so far. Which is why I have been "FOR" for any house legislation immigration because that creates some opening for negotiations. Otherwise this topic may die within next 9 months. After that next election cycle begins and no republican will touch this with a 10 foot pole.

Both can claim victory if they pass legal immigration reform which by the way no one object to. On the other hand there is no objection to legalizing 11M illegals. Dems are looking at vote bank politics as are repubs hence Dems have no interest in passing anything ,just making sure Repubs are branded as anti Hispanics. See if immi bill passes without pathway to citizenship then ground reality does not change and with current redistricting Repubs will win house easily. Only if the Dems keep the immi bill alive will they get lion share of Hispanic vote. On the other hand if Repubs agree to pathway to citizenship then senate in my opinion is not theirs for a long time.

Keeping politics aside I always feel like illegals should pay a bigger price as they were illegals. So this 10 years in nonsense. I waited for 10 years for my GC and if I am branded in the same league where is the incentive to follow the law. I feel like it should be 25 years and then 5 more for citizenship. Agree that most will not be alive but hey you pay a price for coming here illegally. If I am an administrator I would want most to follow the law otherwise my job becomes that much more difficult.

[qesehmk]

Sure.. different constituents have different perspective and accordingly politicians work for their constituents. As per immigrants - for them it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white as long as it kills the mouse. In this case the mouse being - immigration reform

Both can claim victory if they pass legal immigration reform which by the way no one object to. On the other hand there is no objection to legalizing 11M illegals. Dems are looking at vote bank politics as are repubs hence Dems have no interest in passing anything ,just making sure Repubs are branded as anti Hispanics. See if immi bill passes without pathway to citizenship then ground reality does not change and with current redistricting Repubs will win house easily. Only if the Dems keep the immi bill alive will they get lion share of Hispanic vote. On the other hand if Repubs agree to pathway to citizenship then senate in my opinion is not theirs for a long time.

Keeping politics aside I always feel like illegals should pay a bigger price as they were illegals. So this 10 years in nonsense. I waited for 10 years for my GC and if I am branded in the same league where is the incentive to follow the law. I feel like it should be 25 years and then 5 more for citizenship. Agree that most will not be alive but hey you pay a price for coming here illegally. If I am an administrator I would want most to follow the law otherwise my job becomes that much more difficult.

[idiotic]

There have been strong indications that House will cancel the September recess to work on the lengthy agendas for September and October as laid out by Eric Cantor officially..

House cancels the reccess
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...eturns-sept-25

[idiotic]

“The purpose of this trip is largely about immigration rather than Facebook,” said the 29-year-old billionaire, who replaced the suit he wore to the Capitol for his characteristic black hoodie.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...#ixzz2fHM0DaGq

[idiotic]

http://www.theatlantic.com/events/ar...bennet/279787/

Interesting interview especially where he explained how CIR is important than high skilled immigration alone and how they are not very different..

[idiotic]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...890_story.html

Goodlatte, R-Va., said members of his committee are working on four bills to address various aspects of the immigration system, in addition to four that the committee already has approved.
Goodlatte said he’d like to see the full House begin voting on the committee-passed bills next month.

[idiotic]

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/f...sty-Letter.pdf

Here is numbersusa attempt to block the conference from happening. They just want house to pass series of bills and no conference to happen and just let the bill die..

[jackbrown_890]

so the house has voted and passed to defund obamacare with the budget:
what if the senate attached CIR to the budget and passed it.,(wild thought)
it is definitely heading to conference and will most probably be voted out,, but it can become interesting

[geterdone]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...group/2843175/

so the house has voted and passed to defund obamacare with the budget:
what if the senate attached CIR to the budget and passed it.,(wild thought)
it is definitely heading to conference and will most probably be voted out,, but it can become interesting

[qesehmk]

Just to clarify ... this house bill will conference with its senate version not with CIR. They are two separate things.
(This is a good reading on how conferences work. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...ence_committee)

This has zero chance of passing senate. Absolutely Zero because Obamacare is a bigger cornerstone of democratic future when compared with CIR.

so the house has voted and passed to defund obamacare with the budget:
what if the senate attached CIR to the budget and passed it.,(wild thought)
it is definitely heading to conference and will most probably be voted out,, but it can become interesting

[jackbrown_890]

oh yes, i am aware of the house passed budget and senate version of the budget, i was just saying "What IF" dems do that. I understand, Dems don't need to attach anything and just pass the budget and it will still go to the conference..and possibly conference will remove "Defund obamacare" and pass it...OR shutdown for few days/weeks.

[idiotic]

oh yes, i am aware of the house passed budget and senate version of the budget, i was just saying "What IF" dems do that. I understand, Dems don't need to attach anything and just pass the budget and it will still go to the conference..and possibly conference will remove "Defund obamacare" and pass it...OR shutdown for few days/weeks.

House can again attach keystone pipeline and it will be a never ending story in each side attaching their pet projects and it is not the way to negotiate..

The reason dems won't do such thing is because they want to clearly isolate the republicans that any negotiation holding "shutdown of govt" as hostage is not the right way to negotiate.. as Obama said it is similar to "extortion"

[jackbrown_890]

well, yes i agree with you, both sides are not going to add everything they want to this but as GOP voted 41st time to defund obamacare (including this budget) to mainly please their conservative base(even though they know it is not going to pass in the senate), Dems have a chance to energize their base (mainly latino) by attaching CIR to the budget to get back to GOP if shutdown down is unavoidable (from GOP side) for few days/weeks. This move may help keep immigration supporters energized for few more weeks till they reach agreement on the budget and come back to immigration issue. The problem right now is the CIR proponents' enthusiasm is fading away and as many have mentioned, CIR may head towards a slow death..

[qesehmk]

Jack - I suggest you read that link I provided earlier. The very first line says ...

A conference committee is a committee of the Congress appointed by the House of Representatives and Senate to resolve disagreements on a particular bill.

So first this committee is Ad Hoc i.e. formed as needed. Secondly the focus is a particular bill.

Now as idiotic says - yes indeed any pet projects can be inserted into it. But they are generally what is considered "pork barrel" projects that a senator or congressman is basically bought with in return for his vote on that bill.

CIR is an entirely different bill and there is Zero chance that democrats would like to sneak in its provisions in bills where focus is not immigration.

Unfortunately this is exactly what I tried to explain to Rupen the other day and it seems there is this misconception (or propaganda) out there that CIR can conference with any other bill. While technically true - practically I do not know any major bill like CIR findings its way into a conference of any other bill.

Sorry I didn't mean to say you are wrong. But just wanted to clarify this misconception that exists out there.

oh yes, i am aware of the house passed budget and senate version of the budget, i was just saying "What IF" dems do that. I understand, Dems don't need to attach anything and just pass the budget and it will still go to the conference..and possibly conference will remove "Defund obamacare" and pass it...OR shutdown for few days/weeks.

[idiotic]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...group/2843175/

My view is this gang of 7 bill closely resembles senate version and will serve as "Trojan horse" bill evolving out of final conference committee which will have critical mass of votes to pass in both senate and house finally..

The reason of leaving and timing is very dubious.. Let us see how these two senators vote in the final bill if it gets to that stage

Also, even if they ended up finishing it, Goodlatte will send it to dustbin publicly by never bringing it to house judiciary committee as he is already going the piecemeal way publicly..

[PD2008AUG25]

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2...-working-group

[idiotic]

well, yes i agree with you, both sides are not going to add everything they want to this but as GOP voted 41st time to defund obamacare (including this budget) to mainly please their conservative base(even though they know it is not going to pass in the senate),

Dems have a chance to energize their base (mainly latino) by attaching CIR to the budget to get back to GOP if shutdown down is unavoidable (from GOP side) for few days/weeks. This move may help keep immigration supporters energized for few more weeks till they reach agreement on the budget and come back to immigration issue. .

CIR is a priority for sure.. but budget battle is not the right place to do this.. Best and easiest way for democrats to win the budget battle is make the republicans look like "smugglers demanding extortion".. If we tie multiple issues then it will only muddle the water in front of public..

The problem right now is the CIR proponents' enthusiasm is fading away and as many have mentioned, CIR may head towards a slow death..

Too early to declare.. October is an interesting month and Goodlatte has publicly agreed he will bring 4 more bills and they will come to house floor as a vote.. Antiimmigrant groups are already resigned to this fact and now fighting for #noconference

[jackbrown_890]

both of you are right, as i said it was "Wild thought", and Dems most probably won't do that.
plus i know it is easy for GOP to include "defund Obamacare" in the budget since there is a funding for it in the budget; thn to attach CIR provisions (not impossible).
i guess i should say this is more of my wishful thinking to re-energize the CIR debate..(has close to 0% chances of happening)

on the related issue,, any thoughts on possible govt. shut-down and effect of it on Spillover...

btw, sorry if you have already discussed it, (i ll check last few days' posts later in the evening) again I have been out of loop for awhile...with a new baby, not getting much time to sit back and read/enjoy/enlighten myself; all u gurus' analysis and discussions..

[idiotic]

i guess i should say this is more of my wishful thinking to re-energize the CIR debate..(has close to 0% chances of happening)

I think declaring house gang of 7 as dead is the best way to reenergize the public to participate in the marches already well scheduled in October in various cities.. Let us see..

with a new baby, not getting much time to sit back and read/enjoy/enlighten myself; all u gurus' analysis and discussions

Welcome to Parenthood CIR debate is not worth anywhere close to spending time with your precious

[qesehmk]

I have been out of loop for awhile...with a new baby, not getting much time ..

Big news jack! Nothing is worth more. Stay awake and give the new mom some rest. Something I regretted not having done with our first baby. Many many congratulations and wish the new baby all the health wealth and wisdom.

[jackbrown_890]

Thank you Q & Idiotic

[idiotic]

I think declaring house gang of 7 as dead is the best way to reenergize the public to participate in the marches already well scheduled in October in various cities.. Let us see..

Cat is out of the bag..

http://gutierrez.house.gov/press-rel...gration-reform

[idiotic]

The strategy was detailed at a meeting hosted by Pelosi last week with top House Democrats and several immigration-rights advocates, the sources said. The plan would be to publicly release the bill timed to the Oct. 5 National Day of Action that is meant to mobilize grass-roots support and pressure the House Republican leadership to take up immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...#ixzz2flN1CmKE

[idiotic]

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-a...=BrookingsInst

Nice summarization of facts happened last week