Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[feedmyback]

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/polit...gration/68262/

Hilarious!!!

[qesehmk]

LoL!! How did I miss this. This is crazy hilarious!!

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/polit...gration/68262/

[gcq]

3 reasons why the Tea Party is losing August

Town hall season was supposed to be the anti-immigration fringe's time to shine. What happened?

August 2009 was the month of the Tea Party town hall.

We were just eight months into the Obama presidency, and Democratic congressmen headed home for recess only to get ambushed by mobs chanting their opposition to ObamaCare. As The New York Times reported at the time, "members of Congress have been shouted down, hanged in effigy, and taunted by crowds." The August 2009 town halls certainly created obstacles on the road to health care reform, and in many ways, gave birth to the national Tea Party movement.

Now here we are in August 2013, when some observers thought that Tea Party groups would actually derail the tenuous legislative push for immigration reform. The anti-immigration group NumbersUSA is certainly trying, posting "Town Hall Talking Points" along with lists of congressional events at which to reel them off.

But midway through August, the Tea Party is barely a blip on the national radar. What happened?


1. The anti-immigration Tea Party crowd is being out-crazied
Despite the heroic efforts of Rep. Steve "Cantaloupe Calves" King, the anti-immigration faction of the Tea Party is being crowded out by voices even farther out on the fringe.

The news out of the town halls has featured Oklahoma's "Birther Princess" and a Republican congressman casually musing about impeachment. Outside of the town halls, Republicans are publicly feuding with each other over whether to agitate for a government shutdown and conservative talk radio hosts are expending their energies defending the wisdom of turning a Missouri rodeo into a minstrel show.



The right wing's summer cacophony is muffling the noise of the anti-immigration forces, as well as deepening the Republican image problem among moderates and people of color.

2. The Republican leadership wants no part of Tea Party agitation
For all we know, the Tea Party fizzle may be exactly what the Republican leadership wants. According to Politico, "House Republican leaders have spoken about immigration only when asked during the August recess." That suggests Speaker John Boehner and his allies are looking to lower the temperature, creating a climate that eventually will allow compromise to win the day.


But it's not just the formal Republican leadership that is refusing to join the anti-immigration crusade. Tea Party favorites like Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz haven't been leading the anti-immigration parade either, despite their opposition to the bipartisan Senate bill. The Daily Caller's Mickey Kaus lashed out, saying, "If Amnesty Wins, Blame Cruz," as Cruz is siphoning off conservative grassroots energy for his fight against ObamaCare.

The best NumbersUSA could book for its Stop Amnesty tour is Rep. King. A recent rally led by King, held in the congressional district of the second-highest ranking House Republican, attracted a mere 60 people. Meanwhile 1,500 pro-immigration-reform activists held a Wednesday rally in the heavily Latino congressional district of the third-highest ranking House Republican.


3. Republican money is on the other side
The 2009 town hall outbursts were nationally organized in part by conservative groups FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity, which were funded by the billionaire Koch brothers.

But the Kochs support immigration reform, as do Karl Rove and 100 other major Republican donors. As of June, pro-immigration groups had outspent opponents more than 3-to-1.

These three factors are connected. Because the anti-immigration squad is so poorly funded and lacking in leadership, it is vulnerable to being marginalized by louder fringe voices and better organized mainstream voices.
The louder the fringe voices become, the stronger the case mainstream Republicans can make to their leaders to accept immigration reform, on
the grounds that the party can't survive if it remains associated with birthers and bigots. At the same time, since the Tea Party can't get the conservative grassroots riled up now, they won't have much of a case to make to incumbent congressmen that they will face fierce primary challenges next year if they agree to a compromise with Democrats.

Score August as a big win for immigration reform.

[rupen86]

3 reasons why the Tea Party is losing August

Town hall season was supposed to be the anti-immigration fringe's time to shine. What happened?

August 2009 was the month of the Tea Party town hall.

We were just eight months into the Obama presidency, and Democratic congressmen headed home for recess only to get ambushed by mobs chanting their opposition to ObamaCare. As The New York Times reported at the time, "members of Congress have been shouted down, hanged in effigy, and taunted by crowds." The August 2009 town halls certainly created obstacles on the road to health care reform, and in many ways, gave birth to the national Tea Party movement.

Now here we are in August 2013, when some observers thought that Tea Party groups would actually derail the tenuous legislative push for immigration reform. The anti-immigration group NumbersUSA is certainly trying, posting "Town Hall Talking Points" along with lists of congressional events at which to reel them off.

But midway through August, the Tea Party is barely a blip on the national radar. What happened?


1. The anti-immigration Tea Party crowd is being out-crazied
Despite the heroic efforts of Rep. Steve "Cantaloupe Calves" King, the anti-immigration faction of the Tea Party is being crowded out by voices even farther out on the fringe.

The news out of the town halls has featured Oklahoma's "Birther Princess" and a Republican congressman casually musing about impeachment. Outside of the town halls, Republicans are publicly feuding with each other over whether to agitate for a government shutdown and conservative talk radio hosts are expending their energies defending the wisdom of turning a Missouri rodeo into a minstrel show.



The right wing's summer cacophony is muffling the noise of the anti-immigration forces, as well as deepening the Republican image problem among moderates and people of color.

2. The Republican leadership wants no part of Tea Party agitation
For all we know, the Tea Party fizzle may be exactly what the Republican leadership wants. According to Politico, "House Republican leaders have spoken about immigration only when asked during the August recess." That suggests Speaker John Boehner and his allies are looking to lower the temperature, creating a climate that eventually will allow compromise to win the day.


But it's not just the formal Republican leadership that is refusing to join the anti-immigration crusade. Tea Party favorites like Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz haven't been leading the anti-immigration parade either, despite their opposition to the bipartisan Senate bill. The Daily Caller's Mickey Kaus lashed out, saying, "If Amnesty Wins, Blame Cruz," as Cruz is siphoning off conservative grassroots energy for his fight against ObamaCare.

The best NumbersUSA could book for its Stop Amnesty tour is Rep. King. A recent rally led by King, held in the congressional district of the second-highest ranking House Republican, attracted a mere 60 people. Meanwhile 1,500 pro-immigration-reform activists held a Wednesday rally in the heavily Latino congressional district of the third-highest ranking House Republican.


3. Republican money is on the other side
The 2009 town hall outbursts were nationally organized in part by conservative groups FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity, which were funded by the billionaire Koch brothers.

But the Kochs support immigration reform, as do Karl Rove and 100 other major Republican donors. As of June, pro-immigration groups had outspent opponents more than 3-to-1.

These three factors are connected. Because the anti-immigration squad is so poorly funded and lacking in leadership, it is vulnerable to being marginalized by louder fringe voices and better organized mainstream voices.
The louder the fringe voices become, the stronger the case mainstream Republicans can make to their leaders to accept immigration reform, on
the grounds that the party can't survive if it remains associated with birthers and bigots. At the same time, since the Tea Party can't get the conservative grassroots riled up now, they won't have much of a case to make to incumbent congressmen that they will face fierce primary challenges next year if they agree to a compromise with Democrats.

Score August as a big win for immigration reform.

I agree that this is turning out to be better than expected for immigration reform. It remains to be seen however if republican party can come out from likes of "Steve King".

[vizcard]

The question in my mind is whether these "offline" wins will translate to legislative wins. The key guys still don't seem to be overtly convinced (Goodlatte, Boehner, Cantor, McCarthy)

[gcq]

The question in my mind is whether these "offline" wins will translate to legislative wins. The key guys still don't seem to be overtly convinced (Goodlatte, Boehner, Cantor, McCarthy)

Goodlatte - is not a hard liner. He will go with whatever GOP wants.
Boehner - Might have changed to non-committal mode after Steve King's behind the scenes co-ordination with NUSA and other groups.
Cantor - Same

If GOP finds that anti-immigrants don't have that clout as they feared, CIR will be back in business.

[vizcard]

Goodlatte - is not a hard liner. He will go with whatever GOP wants.
Boehner - Might have changed to non-committal mode after Steve King's behind the scenes co-ordination with NUSA and other groups.
Cantor - Same

If GOP finds that anti-immigrants don't have that clout as they feared, CIR will be back in business.

None of those 3 are extreme right...true... but they are the GOP leaders in the House. They need to drive the process...instead..they are being taken for a ride by the extreme right. And that's really the point I was making. Until the leadership takes a stand, nothing will move.

[gcq]

Voices opposing immigration law muted this August

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — It was the kickoff of a "Stop Amnesty Tour" organized by the Tea Party Patriots and other groups. But the crowd was so sparse that immigrant advocates were soon gleefully circulating photos of the featured speaker, Republican Rep. Steve King of Iowa, standing alone on an empty stage.

[seahawks2012]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...gust-the-note/

"TED CRUZ: ‘I WILL RENOUNCE ANY CANADIAN CITIZENSHIP’. Here are the facts: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who may run for president in 2016, was born in Canada and his mother was a U.S. citizen, ABC’s ABBY PHILLIP reports. Most legal scholars and Cruz agree that he’s an American. And if Cruz chooses to run for president in 2016, his technical Canadian citizenship shouldn’t matter, either. But it seems to matter to Cruz. After a spokesman initially denied that Cruz was a dual citizen, the senator said in a statement that he will renounce his Canadian citizenship. “Now the Dallas Morning News says that I may technically have dual citizenship,” Cruz said. “Assuming that is true, then sure, I will renounce any Canadian citizenship. “Nothing against Canada, but I’m an American by birth and as a U.S. senator, I believe I should be only an American.” http://abcn.ws/16DMWWA

–BACKSTORY: Why would Sen. Cruz duck his Canadian birth? Here’s a clue: Billionaire-turned-political-agitator Donald Trump, arguably the only voice of the birther conspiracy theorists, also believes that being born in Canada is a problem for Cruz. When asked whether he thought Cruz was eligible to run for president, Trump told ABC News’ Jonathan Karl: “If he was born in Canada, perhaps not. I don’t know the circumstances. I heard somebody told me he was born in Canada. That’s really his thing.” Incidentally, Trump also doubts whether President Obama, who was born in Hawaii to an American mother, is eligible to be president. Trump has not yet responded to an ABC News request for comment on the latest revelations"

Look at the backstory's last statement of the dual standards people follow!

[rupen86]

Crux of the problem is not letting bill to come up for a vote by insisting Hastert rule.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/brown/2...on-reform.html

[rupen86]

Good summary on where things stand right now.

http://nbclatino.com/2013/08/23/is-i...rm-proponents/

[idiotic]

We all know that house democrats are at bottom of the political food chain .. Funny letter from them to Boehner at start of Recess .. But it is indicative of what to expect.. September 30th is the next logical milestone where things will be clear.. Godolatte already said that the 5 piecemeal bills will be taken up in the house floor in September..

"we write to inform you that if a "bipartisan" immigration reform package is not introduced in House of Representatives - ... - by september 30th,"
http://newdemocratcoalition-kind.hou...802_162613.pdf

[gcq]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/t...w/22081032.cms

[Jagan01]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/t...w/22081032.cms

Doesn't matter if they reduce H1 onsite effort. I think many used to be holding H1 but never came to USA. They might be cutting the excess H1 that they hold.

[idiotic]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ration-reform/

What this is really about is looking for excuses, even far-fetched ones, for why they’re not doing comprehensive immigration reform without actually admitting that they’re against comprehensive immigration reform.
It remains very simple. If most mainstream conservative Republicans in the House want comprehensive immigration reform to pass, it will pass. If they don’t, it won’t. It really is that simple. Anything else you hear is poor analysis or spin.

[rupen86]

The strategy of house gang seems to be introducing bill in October when piece-meal bills would have failed. Seems like a good strategy.

http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...r-push-1401634

[Jagan01]

The strategy of house gang seems to be introducing bill in October when piece-meal bills would have failed. Seems like a good strategy.

http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...r-push-1401634

Another way to look at the same information.
- Even Democrats do not expect House passing/considering CIR until Oct
- Republicans will try to push piecemeal bills until they keep failing to a point when they decide to give up. The democrat speaker believes that the Republicans will give up on piecemeal bills sometime in Oct. It may be December or even Next summer. It is upto the discretion of Republicans and only when they think that piecemeal will not work would they even think of CIR
- Even if House later on decides to bring CIR it is still not taking the Senate CIR. This means going to conference and a lot of back and forth.

Overall this article says that expect no bill to be passed for another year.

[Jagan01]

Another way to look at the same information.
- Even Democrats do not expect House passing/considering CIR until Oct
- Republicans will try to push piecemeal bills until they keep failing to a point when they decide to give up. The democrat speaker believes that the Republicans will give up on piecemeal bills sometime in Oct. It may be December or even Next summer. It is upto the discretion of Republicans and only when they think that piecemeal will not work would they even think of CIR
- Even if House later on decides to bring CIR it is still not taking the Senate CIR. This means going to conference and a lot of back and forth.

Overall this article says that expect no bill to be passed for another year.

Sorry for being pessimistic... but after all the wait and after all the hype around CIR... I somehow believe that all of the immigration bill etc is just false hopes...The further it delays the less likely it is to pass.... I am fearing that if this runs into next year then the elections will be another excuse of not taking up the immigration reform...

[idiotic]

http://judiciary.house.gov/news/2013...0Directive.PDF

The next executive order legalizing more categories...

Timing of this will ensure that Republicans have more stake now in passing CIR to get their enforcement piece atleast..

[rupen86]

From Oh Law firm, seems new compromise in the discussion. If it is true and if that's the way they try to do it, it might benefit us because they would add more green cards to clear existing backlog.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/pol...ot-pathway-to/

[idiotic]

it might benefit us because they would add more green cards to clear existing backlog.

Traditionally House republicans are always for net Green Card neutral solutions to satisfy the anti immigrant groups..

[rupen86]

Traditionally House republicans are always for net Green Card neutral solutions to satisfy the anti immigrant groups..

Ya, that is true. That shows up in HR 2131 also but if they choose this route, they also have to show how it will work. Without increasing green cards, it never will.

[idiotic]

Ya, that is true. That shows up in HR 2131 also but if they choose this route, they also have to show how it will work.

Show it to whom(immigrants in queue)?? They will claim America is one of the most generous countries already when it comes to immigration and there is no need for increasing it further. Everyone need to wait for their turn.

Without increasing green cards, it never will.

Agreed.

[cbordu_111]

There is one thing for certain with this whole immigration debate and that is there is absolutely no chance of immigration reform passing this year at all. I say so just looking at the legislative priorities this year and immigration does not fit the bill anywhere. The best possible chance if any would probably be after next year mid terms and if there is no change in the house/senate dynamics, this issue is only going to come alive in 2016. That's the irony of immigration reform!

[idiotic]

Join the action on September 10th..

http://www.fwd.us/doa