Originally Posted by Jagan01
CIR won't wait for 2015. It's 2013/2014 or bust. Moves will happen after the primaries and not elections. Republican citizens will vote republican where the candidate is tea party or regular. So the incumbents have to just get thru the primaries to avoid losing their jobs.
I don't think the Reps will win the Senate. In fact I believe the Dems will strengthen their majority.
Another thinking that Boehner is playing by strategy. Although, I do not quite agree with this.
http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...enship-1355789
I disagree. I feel that the chances are brighter in 2015.
I agree with the statement that "Moves will happen after the primaries and not elections". Presidential elections are 2016 and Primaries will be 2015. Thus 2015 is the best chance.
Another possibility is that dems might win the house in Nov 2014. If that happens then we can see CIR pass in Dec 2014. Even that would be technically called 2015.
Consider this... You have two sons... first has a bday in June and second in December... In May you will look for gifts for the son who's bday is in June and in Nov you will look for gifts for the other one.
Nov 2014 election is the main base of republicans... they cant afford to loose conservative voters in 2014 election.
Nov 2016 (Presidential) they know the conservatives will vote for Republican... That time they need the Latinos, Asians, etc to win White house. Hence 2015.
Very good interview by Gutiérrez
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...m_business_pop
He perfectly summarizes Republican insistence on Hastert rule.
"Don’t you see this anti-democratic, anti-democracy bent in everything they’re saying? In other words, “I can’t allow this process to go forward because the majority might win. Therefore, I’m going to use my minority status to obstruct. I’m going to join 30 other Republicans and say, ‘You’re not going to get anything because conference equals amnesty in your mind, or equals getting an immigration bill.’”
"How does that speak to American values? I don’t know. If you take that, there would be no vote for women, blacks would still be back at the back of the bus, the gay community would still not be recognized. Come on, it is the triumph of the majority, right, that sustains and strengthens democracy. You really weaken democracy when you allow a minority to use legislative tools to thwart the will of the majority. How’s that gonna make you feel? That’s what people rebel against."
"It’s almost too cavalier. “Of course Luis, you have 218 votes, but you need a majority of the majority.” It’s almost like that is what is taught in basic civics in America, and why would you question it? It’s the new truth.
We’re going to question that new truth. You just say, “Wait a minute, that’s not exactly fair. I thought the guy with the most votes wins.”
Last edited by rupen86; 07-23-2013 at 07:17 AM.
I have been following politics for more than a decade now, until about 6 months before elections its difficult to even remotely predict the outcome.I disagree. I feel that the chances are brighter in 2015.
I agree with the statement that "Moves will happen after the primaries and not elections". Presidential elections are 2016 and Primaries will be 2015. Thus 2015 is the best chance.
Another possibility is that dems might win the house in Nov 2014. If that happens then we can see CIR pass in Dec 2014. Even that would be technically called 2015.
Consider this... You have two sons... first has a bday in June and second in December... In May you will look for gifts for the son who's bday is in June and in Nov you will look for gifts for the other one.
Nov 2014 election is the main base of republicans... they cant afford to loose conservative voters in 2014 election.
Nov 2016 (Presidential) they know the conservatives will vote for Republican... That time they need the Latinos, Asians, etc to win White house. Hence 2015
CIR will pass in the next few years, its just a matter of time but for someone who will get GC in 1-2 yrs even without CIR it might save at the most a year or so ( especially someone who doesn't have stable job)
See comments inline
I disagree. I feel that the chances are brighter in 2015.
I agree with the statement that "Moves will happen after the primaries and not elections". Presidential elections are 2016 and Primaries will be 2015. Thus 2015 is the best chance.
they have primaries for House and Senate elections too. I was referring to those primaries.
Another possibility is that dems might win the house in Nov 2014. If that happens then we can see CIR pass in Dec 2014. Even that would be technically called 2015.
All the more reason for Republicans to get it done before Nov then if Republicans want a say in the matter.
Consider this... You have two sons... first has a bday in June and second in December... In May you will look for gifts for the son who's bday is in June and in Nov you will look for gifts for the other one.
no idea what this means. But if either of those birthdays are important milestones, I'd be thinking a lot longer than 1 month.
Nov 2014 election is the main base of republicans... they cant afford to loose conservative voters in 2014 election.
they are not going to lose conservative voters. Congressional districts are less diverse in terms of republican vs democrat. They generally lean heavily one way or the other. For republicans districts,the issue is conservative vs ultra-conservative.
If incumbent candidate A is a normal republican and candidate B is tea party republican, the republicans population will generally pick the one who is more conservative. So the incumbent has to be overly conservative to win the primary. Once he gets past the primary ie beat candidate B, the entire republican population will vote for him/her against the Dem candidate regardless as he will always be more conservative than the Dem candidate.
Nov 2016 (Presidential) they know the conservatives will vote for Republican... That time they need the Latinos, Asians, etc to win White house. Hence 2015
You are assuming ethnic groups are liberal which is false. Latinos are very conservative and religious. The only sticking point is immigration. Republicans will need time to get immigration done and then sell republican values to the ones that are on the fence. It's not a light switch - pass immigration and win election..
Last edited by vizcard; 07-22-2013 at 11:17 PM.
Some hope, threat and despair
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/31...m-dim-in-2014-
Just to keep this thread alive-some info from Rep.Ryan (very vague) and no supporting information from either house leadership or other congressmen
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepo...217134531.html
If this is indeed true there is no need to break our heads for 2 months at the least
It seems little positive news that there is a plan to vote on bills in October including 15 year path for citizenship.
Interesting report ..
http://www.americanbridgepac.org/201...0-of-the-time/
I am not sure what it takes for the republican national congress to keep the anti immigrant faction quiet..
This statics does not tell the fact that till now republican party was aligned with King's ideas on immigration but the shift is recent which has happened after November election.
Budget fights may affect immigration reform negatively.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...rehensive.html
Good analysis..Paul Ryan to take a lead.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...opeless-cause/
And below one, still asking valid question why house members would support it when their seats are safe unless Boehner brings bill without majority of republican supporting it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-in-the-house/
Last edited by rupen86; 07-30-2013 at 02:31 PM.
Some funny stuff..
"As McCain, 76, walked out of the Dem-filled space, reporters pressed him as to why he stepped foot in the room.
Saying he “had to give a speech,” McCain was eyed walking away sporting a big grin."
"The senator on Wednesday joked it would a "difficult choice" for him if Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton were to face off for the presidency in 2016."
http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know...caucus-meeting
this is very realistic scenario.
"My bet is, Democrats will demand far more than House Republicans can possibly deliver."
http://www.nationaljournal.com/colum...ampaign=Buffer
Last edited by PD2008AUG25; 07-31-2013 at 02:14 PM.
PD: 08/25/2008 EB2I
Thanks PD. The article is quite neat. I agree with the tone. Personally now I am of the opinion that even 35% is a tall order.
Republicans are entirely driven to see Obama fail. So their focus is going to be crafting a bill that in no way shape or form can be tied to Obama. It means one and only one thing - there won't be any bill.
Dems on the other hand are in a strong position here - win or lose - and are unlikely to yield.
The intransigence of GOP is far more systemic and not necessarily tied to immigration. It has to do with the psyche of the majority who feels their way is threatened in new america. And hence common sense is not going to prevail.
There are 2 specific examples of how common sense is not prevailing:
1) The entire economic crisis so badly warranted public spending on infrastructure. Yet we saw very little movement there.
2) With baby boomers retiring America is actually going to face crisis of young workers. But there is little appetite to address EB immigration on its own merit.
On both fronts - we are seeing lack of action because political climate is too muddy. Otherwise both issues are no-brainers.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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One thing I do not understand. As the article correctly points out that most house republicans would be ok if the bill is passed without their votes, Boehner's insistence on hastert rule contradicts that point. If he allows vote on senate bill, he could pass without having to ask house republicans to vote for it.
You should read the comments section of the article and you could see the comments as ultra-anti-immigration. People are talking about LEGAL immigration as detrimental to the country along with the regular bashing of amnesty provisions.
These comments are probably by anti-immigrant groups. Anti-immigrant groups like NUSA has dedicated volunteers who write these comments.
Thats a pervasive theme ... loud anti-immigration minority... very very loud. Starting with Steve King and down to groups like NumbersUSA
Friends
Bob Goodlatte (House Judiciary committee chairman) has mentioned about the removing per country caps in this article on National Review (http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...-bob-goodlatte)
Looks like a good sign for at least some relief (i.e. without increasing gc quotas) and making the system fair....and repealing the employment-based per-country cap, which doesn’t increase legal immigration but does decrease the longest wait times. ...
There is nothing new in removing per country limit now. It is in the senate bill. It is in SKILL bill. And I believe, it will be part of any bill introduced in future. But it is not good as he is making it sound. SKILL bill raises H1 3 times and including dependents, it will raise it at least 6 times while only allocating 50,000 STEM green cards. Math does not look good to me even though it includes per country quota elimination.
The Senate bill doesn't remove per country limits. It raises it to 15% though (as I understand it).
http://news.yahoo.com/dems-hit-gop-i...160455883.html
AMES, Iowa (AP) — Kicking off an August of likely intense debate over immigration, the Senate's second-ranking Democrat traveled to Iowa Friday to rebuke House Republicans who oppose major changes embraced by the Senate.
That is in family based. For EB, it removes.
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