partly because of this
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95R14T20130628
Originally Posted by whateverGC
partly because of this
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95R14T20130628
There is real danger in the house. First is what the house passes and second is what will happen in the conference committee. If house passes piece-meal bills like SAFE and SKILL and tries to go to conference with the senate, there is real danger that senate provisions related to high skill immigrants will be dropped in exchange for path to citizenship. Our objective should be to meet our district representatives and ask for the support of the senate provisions like Visa Recapture, exemption for dependents, STEM which are missing and get them included in the house bill. If those provisions are included in the house bill, during conference time, they won't have to be sacrificed in favor of other things.
Why would senate agree to reconcile house bill if it is not much similar to Senate bill ? Reconciliation process comes into play only when there is only small differences between house and senate bills. House bill in its current form is not a candidate for reconciliation. On the other hand if house is not even friendly to business(high skilled) immigration, how will they ever be friendly to illegal immigration. GOP is friendly to high skilled immigration whereas democrats are for illegal immigration.
IMO what house is doing now is somehow trying to stall senate bill in its current form. Democrats are in no way going to allow that. If house is not going to come up with a bill close to senate bill or allow senate bill for voting, CIR is dead.
It does not need to be close to the senate bill. House can pass couple of bills and can go to the conference if they wanted. Senate would agree because they want one bill which they can vote on. Reconcile does not mean they have to be close. Ultimately, out of the conference one bill will emerge. Senators like Graham have expressed this recently that house can pass anything and they can go to conference with virtually anything.Democrats will be happy as long as "path to citizenship" is kept and republicans will be happy as long as companies are happy which they would be with more H1bs and other temporary visas. Both would just be fine if green card issue is not resolved.
This again comes to being the combination of all house bills being close to the Senate bill. Has house reached that point yet ? No. Anti-immigrants like King thinks they have upper hand in house immigration bill and somehow can kill it. Unless something drastically changes in speaker Boehner's plan, it will remain a "pipe dream" as some lawmaker put it. GOP needs to show guts to push it forward.
In 2006 House and Senate passed bills. But house refused to go to conference process. In 2007 two houses were under democrats. No bill in house and Senate CIR failed. Rand Paul also says Senate bill is dead on arrival. No single Senior leadership including Mcconnell voted for CIR. This shows GOP is not yet ready for CIR. Democrats also feel that they did their duty by passing in Senate.
http://news.yahoo.com/pelosi-links-i...130111172.html
House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi says immigration reform is the right thing for congressional Republicans "if they ever want to win a presidential race."
Good article on nbcnews.
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2...ington-dc?lite
Quoting a piece of the article below. It clearly illustrates how republican congress has an obstructionist agenda. At the same time also note that it is almost a tussle between two philosophies where folks of one genuinely feel they are losing their way of life.Boehner spokesman Michael Steel touts several achievements over the past two Congresses (spending cuts, trade agreements, a transportation bill), but he says a large focus has been to stop President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats from passing parts of their agenda.
“Welcome to divided government,” he said. “A big part of our job has been to stop bad things from happening."
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I think this will be the only option for CIR in house - “discharge petition”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ration-reform/
A July 10 meeting among House Republicans will be key in determining how they proceed. It may be hard to get to a House-Senate conference with the two chambers taking such different approaches.
http://about.bgov.com/2013/06/28/lof...in-bgov-forum/
A very good summary of what was passed in the senate (sorry if this has already been posted)
http://www.menendez.senate.gov/imo/m...orm%20Bill.pdf
This is my first post though I am active viewer of all the posts here for the past 2 years. First, I want to salute the entire community for having such a decent immigration related forum. Here is my take on this "Discharge Petition".
I strongly believe this is going to be the option for CIR in the HOUSE. 200 Democrats and around 20 Republicans will vote YES and CIR passes the HOUSE.Here is my explanation:
201 Democrats - They will support this as they gain to get by passing the Immigration Reform.
28 Republicans - They will support this as they have to fight the Democrats in their Districts.
Speaker Boehner - He will say thet he did not bring the CIR for voting but was forced to do the voting because of Discharge Petition.
Conservatives in House - Same argument as above. They will say to their constituents that they tried to block the CIR but could not because of a small percentage of Repbluicans and they will all vote NO to CIR.
GOP - They will be happy to see the CIR pass as above as they can hope for a Republican President soon.
So basically every one wins by taking the above approach.. Am I thinking right???
I saw almost entire video of BGOV. Here is the link to that if someone is interested.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/lofgr...2rNAkZOIg.html
It was good. I liked 2 points which Lofgren said.
1) She said twitter, virtual march etc does not work. Most of the members are not aware about that. Email/phone is the most effective method.
2) She said, green card solution is more important than H1B. Hoping that would translate in the bill they are working on.
Welcome GCSeekerIndia. I think that's quite logical. There are 2 questions really ... (I am not asking you really. Just throwing them out loud).
A) Who are those 28 republicans that can be cajolled into voting for CIR.
B) Are there any democrats that could vote NO on CIR (because of the pressure from their constituents e.g.).
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Even though, it sounds logical, it is much difficult in practice. As, one article had recently pointed out, it is one thing to vote against the party line and another to take control of the floor.
This came as surprise to me. Jeb Bush urging house to pass immigration reform.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ration-reform/
Another big story from Oh Law Firm. House Gang of 7 set to release its bill early next week.
http://wfpl.org/post/house-immigrati...n-yarmuth-says
This route though difficult, is possible, because all politics in the end is local. And while republican establishment in congress cant openly embrace CIR, they will not be as unkind to the thought of some republicans crossing party line in a discharge petition. That would make a good theater to show establishment's constituency how hard main party fought against CIR.
This is a good example of all politics is local. Jeb Bush benefits from being seen pro immigration. And that's what CIR backers are already doing ... finding republicans that have more reasons to support than oppose CIR.
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Geekesque at this thread (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...lysis-in-house) on trackitt provides a good explanation of why this is unlikely to come up through Discharge petition.
Ron Gothcher at http://www.immigration-information.c...ill-pass-house sees 4 options all of which seem unlikely.CIR through house via a "discharge petition"?
Could this happen? Theoretically yes. Is it likely to? Almost definitely not.
In a partisan and polarized House discharge petitions in general aren’t much more than clever messaging documents. Signing on usually gets you on the bad book of the majority leadership, and in the case of immigration Republicans who signed on would face external consequences, even if leadership tacitly give it the go ahead.
Crudely, the only reason for the Republican party to greenlight a bill that will make 11 million current immigrants citizen is if they get to share in the credit. Killing it altogether would have all kinds of consequences, but the two upshots for Republicans would be that a). those immigrants won’t become citizens anytime soon, and b). they could at least attempt, however disingenuously, to convince the public that the failure was bipartisan.
Those silver linings disappear if Democrats manage to get the bill enacted through discharge petition. In fact, that would be the worst possible outcome for the GOP. It would give Democrats a huge policy victory but leave Republicans without the political dividends they’d pocket by being equal partners in the reform effort. It might even exacerbate their problems with Hispanic voters. And allowing a couple dozen Republicans to sign a discharge petition would accomplish just that.
So CIR via a discharge petition is theoretically possible but practically not gonna happen.
I see four windows during which CIR could be passed:
- During the next one month before the August recess. I think that this is highly unlikely, but a definite possibility. After the Republicans return home for the August recess, and the Taliban wing of the party comes out in force at their town hall meetings, forget about passing anything after August.
- Late next summer, after the Republican primaries, if the polls are showing the Republicans likely to lose control of the House, they could pass the Senate bill quickly to defuse that issue in an attempt to retain control of the House.
- During the lame duck session after next year's election if the Republicans have lost control of the House and now realize that if they don't pass this bill, the Democrats will be able to pass their own bill in the next session of Congress.
- During the 114th Congress if the Democrats win control of the House. They should be able to get past a filibuster easily since the Republicans in the Senate most likely will not want to repeat the mistakes the House made in the 113th Congress.
Last edited by immi2910; 07-02-2013 at 11:10 AM.
Very wise words by Geekesque .... however again ... "Local Politics" can seriously trump everything else. That is as much true about GOP leadership as it is true about the GOP troops. Discharge petition gives GOP leadership the best "PERSONAL" cover from accusations that they were in bed with dems on immigration.
LoL !!! Lawyer-speak.
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[QUOTE=immi2910;36940]Geekesque at this thread (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...lysis-in-house) on trackitt provides a good explanation of why this is unlikely to come up through Discharge petition.
I won't disagree with his view, but I am one who believes that local politics is what the politicians care of and they have every incentive to keep their seat intact in the next election. Based on this view, it is a WIN - WIN for every politician, be it Dems, Republics (GOP or Conservatives) if they go for Discharge Petition (They can claim in their election ads that they stood by their constituents during CIR voting but still the CIR passed and blame the other group). And I think we should be getting to know more about this in the next 1 month or so.
GOP need the credit and Democrats are willing to give them credit too. Just like Rubio being the face in Senate. I think Paul Ryan / another presidential candiate will be the face of the bill in House fighting for CIR and trying to get "critical" mass of republicans. Discharge petition will not work for GOP.
Extreme right wing(Tea Party) is a lost cause. They will not agree to anything because their districts are happily gerrymandered till 2020 and they will exist blissfully in their own world and go into a death spiral. They will realize the fact in 2020 and it will be too late at that time.
Bottom line facts:
1. CIR is a democratic bill! Period. It may have "bi-partisan" aspects attached but from the point of view of voters CIR is a Obama/Democratic party bill.
2. The only way for Republican Party to get some credit is by having their own bill(s) that add up to CIR or equivalent. This helps them tell a good story of Republican initiative on immigration.
3. Conservative voters don't really have much of a play here for simple bottom line: "If not GOP, who are they going to vote for?"
Another part of the equation is the fact that with the exception of the immigration issue, Hispanics are really very conservative. As a hard working, religious, family focused, frugal, responsible community, they would jump at the opportunity to vote Republican if they didn't think the Republicans hated them. Rather than being a liability to the GOP, the Hispanic population could drive the next generation's worth of growth for them. Although, the GOP may just have built up too much ill-will over the last few decades.
NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|
Yes. True. That's what Bush Jr and McCain thought but they couldn't overcome resistance. I think Obama's re-election changed the political equations to the extent that the resistance is much more muted now vs then.
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