Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[gs1968]

A small procedural victory but still a victory (for people who follow the procedural aspects of legislation). It appears like there will be no need for a cloture vote for the initial motion to proceed on S.744 which does save some time. Otherwise if a cloture has to be filed first it might be another week before meaningful action and would be unnecessary as clearly there is enough votes in the Senate to at least start the debate if not pass the legislation

http://www.redstate.com/2013/06/04/m...medium=twitter

[chengisk]

Apart from the political drama, all I understand is that: "Obama/Democratic party is holding Legal Immigration improvements hostage for the Latino votes"

But then you are also aware that the proposed CIR would not have come about without the latino votes. Cheers!

[qesehmk]

Without CIR there was precisely ZERO talk of any EB reform. This is a hard fact that there is no pressure group - no lobbying when it comes to EB reform. Tech companies are kind of sympathetic but the truth is - they too like the wage suppression.

So those of you who really want EB reform happen - you better align with CIR. Because other than CIR there is ZERO chance of EB reform. Here is my dollar on the table for anybody who wants to bet otherwise on this one. And this offer is valid for next 5 years.

Apart from the political drama, all I understand is that: "Obama/Democratic party is holding Legal Immigration improvements hostage for the Latino votes"

[immitime]

I believe you know already same sex ammendment not attached. without amnesty there is going to be no bill as obama and senate democratic leadership are doing this whole exercise to appease latinos and to get future voters for generations.

Republicans (far right ones) wanted no immigration bills at all. Democrats on the other hand wanted only CIR and nothing else.

I am not sure whether you followed the visa re-capture bill and HR 3012, how they just died , there was no amnesty .

I am personally involved in 3012, putting both money and time in effort., i was so fed up that I thought i would rather live with EAD as its extremely frustrating to get anything done in washington.

I have followed the last years drama and still convinced that these politicians do not want to do any stuff on immigration side, they just want the issue to solve in future! get the lobby money every year. Also aware that same sex marriage is not included at present. But The President said without that option he may not sign the bill. No expectations this time.

[Ramsen]

Without CIR there was precisely ZERO talk of any EB reform. This is a hard fact that there is no pressure group - no lobbying when it comes to EB reform. Tech companies are kind of sympathetic but the truth is - they too like the wage suppression.

So those of you who really want EB reform happen - you better align with CIR. Because other than CIR there is ZERO chance of EB reform. Here is my dollar on the table for anybody who wants to bet otherwise on this one. And this offer is valid for next 5 years.

Whenever immigration bill is debated companies wanted almost unlimited H1b and green card with zero requirements. Labor unions want protection for American workers. You cannot combine both. So congress is saying in a nice way that all of your requirements will be satisfied in coming CIR. Anytime companies and labor unions come up with agreement legal immigration bill will be passed . Otherwise wait for successful CIR

[delguy]

Also aware that same sex marriage is not included at present. But The President said without that option he may not sign the bill. No expectations this time.

President did not said this. On the contrary he said that not everyone is going to get everything and that includes him, dems and republicans. He clearly said that it is going to be a compromise.

[indiani]

Without CIR there was precisely ZERO talk of any EB reform. This is a hard fact that there is no pressure group - no lobbying when it comes to EB reform. Tech companies are kind of sympathetic but the truth is - they too like the wage suppression.

So those of you who really want EB reform happen - you better align with CIR. Because other than CIR there is ZERO chance of EB reform. Here is my dollar on the table for anybody who wants to bet otherwise on this one. And this offer is valid for next 5 years.

Agree with Q,
as long as obama is in office and senate has democratic leader or any democrat in office, they will veto any bill which doesn't have citizenship for almost 11 million.
Republicans have slim chance of getting house+senate+WH even in 2016.
CIR has about 25% chance of passing but thats the only hope for anyone who need legislative change to obtain GC.
when we were dealing with HR 3012 even though none of the democratic leaders or the WH voiced their opposition; harry reid tabled it (rather threw in garbage can) and so did countless hours of precious time and some money of many who lobbied including me went to waste.

[indiani]

Obama is sincere in getting CIR done and so are the democrats; its the republicans who are playing politics.
some who want to be national players like Rubio , and veteran national players like Mccain are OK with it but most of them especially in house of representative are going to vote NO.

here is the one of the scenarios where it can pass:

Boehner gets pressue from Rubio/ carl rove and other republican establishment and future presdidential aspirees that without CIR they will have zero chances of winning WH in 2016; then Boehner along with Judicial committee (not sure who could convince Goodlatte) will introduce a bill on the House floor which will pass with democratic majority and some republicans getting on board (hispanic causes and republicans from border states with huge hispanic polulations)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Obama is sincere in getting CIR done and so are the democrats; its the republicans who are playing politics.
some who want to be national players like Rubio , and veteran national players like Mccain are OK with it but most of them especially in house of representative are going to vote NO.

here is the one of the scenarios where it can pass:

Boehner gets pressue from Rubio/ carl rove and other republican establishment and future presdidential aspirees that without CIR they will have zero chances of winning WH in 2016; then Boehner along with Judicial committee (not sure who could convince Goodlatte) will introduce a bill on the House floor which will pass with democratic majority and some republicans getting on board (hispanic causes and republicans from border states with huge hispanic polulations)

Just out of curiosity, how many Republican votes will be needed in the House to pass the CIR provided all the Democrat House Representatives vote for it? I see that there are 201 Democrat and 233 Republican Representatives in the House. Does the House need 2/3 majority like Senate or only 50% majority would be required to pass it? Obviously, there are big ifs and buts before it makes it to the House floor and in which form, but just asking a hypothetical question.

[indiani]

Just out of curiosity, how many Republican votes will be needed in the House to pass the CIR provided all the Democrat House Representatives vote for it? I see that there are 201 Democrat and 233 Republican Representatives in the House. Does the House need 2/3 majority like Senate or only 50% majority would be required to pass it? Obviously, there are big ifs and buts before it makes it to the House floor and in which form, but just asking a hypothetical question.

if there is no filibuster senate needs 50 votes as VP can vote in a tie.
house needs just over 50% votes
By the way even if 10 % of democrats vote NO, still there is good chance if you find approx 40 republicans, including 4 in house gang of 8.

[vizcard]

By the way even if 10 % of democrats vote NO, still there is good chance if you find approx 40 republicans, including 4 in house gang of 8.

I agree but that's assuming a comprehensive House Bill will have a path to citizenship in it. There's no way a House Bill will be liberal enough to get House democrats to vote yes. The contrary will most likely be true. The Bill will be conservative, some republicans (particularly those from blue states) will vote no, some democrats (from red states) will vote yes and that Bill will get through the House.

[vizcard]

Obama is sincere in getting CIR done and so are the democrats; its the republicans who are playing politics.
some who want to be national players like Rubio , and veteran national players like Mccain are OK with it but most of them especially in house of representative are going to vote NO.

here is the one of the scenarios where it can pass:

Boehner gets pressue from Rubio/ carl rove and other republican establishment and future presdidential aspirees that without CIR they will have zero chances of winning WH in 2016; then Boehner along with Judicial committee (not sure who could convince Goodlatte) will introduce a bill on the House floor which will pass with democratic majority and some republicans getting on board (hispanic causes and republicans from border states with huge hispanic polulations)

I don't think its just the Republicans playing politics. The Democrats have said "hell no" to anything without a path to citizenship. If they truly wanted to pass reform, then they need to be open to other options. I'm not defending republicans coz I think they are a bunch of idiots but they make some fair points related to Border Security triggers.

[gs1968]

Sen.Marco Rubio is all over the place with what he is saying.A couple of links for consideration

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...#ixzz2VLFihaRl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-moving-right/

Instead of teaming with the G8 to move this Bill along he is working with Sen.Cornyn?

[Jonty Rhodes]

if there is no filibuster senate needs 50 votes as VP can vote in a tie.
house needs just over 50% votes
By the way even if 10 % of democrats vote NO, still there is good chance if you find approx 40 republicans, including 4 in house gang of 8.

Thanks for the reply.

[indiani]

I don't think its just the Republicans playing politics. The Democrats have said "hell no" to anything without a path to citizenship. If they truly wanted to pass reform, then they need to be open to other options. I'm not defending republicans coz I think they are a bunch of idiots but they make some fair points related to Border Security triggers.

I agree with what you said, in fact democrats are the one who held all legal immigration bills hostage for 1 years.

What i meant to say was that the democrats are in favor of CIR in the CURRENT form.

Could they just drop the citizenship issue and pass bill with just GC to illegals and within 10 years pass another bill granting citizenship?
Of course they can but politically it doesn't make sense to them.

[indiani]

Sen.Marco Rubio is all over the place with what he is saying.A couple of links for consideration

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...#ixzz2VLFihaRl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-moving-right/

Instead of teaming with the G8 to move this Bill along he is working with Sen.Cornyn?

marco is definitely all over the place and confused, but if there is one single person in republican party who tried more to appease talk radio and conservatives is him, he is tea party darling.
I personally met him once , he seems to be very smeart guy and pragmatic

[bieber]

Tea party is not happy with Rubio over CIR, he no longer gets that support. he is being played by Democrats, without Rubio name there is no credibility to this bill.

[kkruna]

marco is definitely all over the place and confused, but if there is one single person in republican party who tried more to appease talk radio and conservatives is him, he is tea party darling.
I personally met him once , he seems to be very smeart guy and pragmatic

he is not confused. He is just ensuring to keep the initiative and not be "out-conservatived" by some other conservative.

[indiani]

he is not confused. He is just ensuring to keep the initiative and not be "out-conservatived" by some other conservative.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/p...160539373.html

Tom price on CIR

[gs1968]

Keeping up with the negative slant of news reports today

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hou...6/05/id/508190

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...near-collapse/

[Jonty Rhodes]

Keeping up with the negative slant of news reports today

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hou...6/05/id/508190

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...near-collapse/

I understand that without Democrats there would not be a CIR but if this bill fails, I would blame Democrats as much as I would blame Republicans. I agree with Republicans on this one. I don't think the Health Care System in its current avatar would be able to take the burden of giving Government health care benefits to millions of illegals who will be legalized, not especially once the Obama Care will be implemented despite its being called as "Universal Health Care".

Obamacare is a terrible idea resulting from great and noble intentions. I can tell you this with some authority, because being a physician, we have already started to bear the brunt of it, in terms of decreased reimbursements, punishing physicians and hospitals financially for all-cause re-admissions within 30 days (If your patient comes with pneumonia, you treat them in the hospital and discharge them. In next 10 days, he falls and fractures his leg and comes back for fracture repair. That is considered a "Re-admission within 30 days and a fault of the physician. Yes, it is that stupid) and what not. I can go on and on about it.

The Democratic notion that since they are paying taxes, they should be getting benefits, is absolutely ridiculous. I am a legal immigrant from last 8.5 years in USA, first on F1 and then on H1B, and have been paying Medicare taxes since last 8 years, and still not eligible for government health care benefits and I am sure, just like me, you all are. Providing a path to citizenship is controversial enough and now Democrats want health care benefits on that which Republicans won't accept. Republicans are stubborn idiots but Democrats are not behind in their stubbornness either.

[vizcard]

I understand that without Democrats there would not be a CIR but if this bill fails, I would blame Democrats as much as I would blame Republicans. I agree with Republicans on this one. I don't think the Health Care System in its current avatar would be able to take the burden of giving Government health care benefits to millions of illegals who will be legalized, not especially once the Obama Care will be implemented despite its being called as "Universal Health Care".

Obamacare is a terrible idea resulting from great and noble intentions. I can tell you this with some authority, because being a physician, we have already started to bear the brunt of it, in terms of decreased reimbursements, punishing physicians and hospitals financially for all-cause re-admissions within 30 days (If your patient comes with pneumonia, you treat them in the hospital and discharge them. In next 10 days, he falls and fractures his leg and comes back for fracture repair. That is considered a "Re-admission within 30 days and a fault of the physician. Yes, it is that stupid) and what not. I can go on and on about it.

The Democratic notion that since they are paying taxes, they should be getting benefits, is absolutely ridiculous. I am a legal immigrant from last 8.5 years in USA, first on F1 and then on H1B, and have been paying Medicare taxes since last 8 years, and still not eligible for government health care benefits and I am sure, just like me, you all are. Providing a path to citizenship is controversial enough and now Democrats want health care benefits on that which Republicans won't accept. Republicans are stubborn idiots but Democrats are not behind in their stubbornness either.

Totally agree. I've been in the that boat for 14 yrs now and probably paid $100K in FICA taxes over that period.

The Gang of 8 said no federal aid but obamacare I think is supposed to be a state program. The SJC agreed that it would only obamacare would only be available for medical emergencies but I'm not sure how you manage that.

[rupen86]

Keeping up with the negative slant of news reports today

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hou...6/05/id/508190

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...near-collapse/

abcnews is pretty serious news which means that "Comprehensive" in the house is dead and they would proceed through piecemeal approach. They are not going to take senate version either. I do not know if they would be able to go to conference committee after passing couple of bills.

[qesehmk]

gs - this probably is a positive news because it talks about benefit eligibility vs citizenship. Almost indicating that at least some core republicans are ok with citizenship.

I think dems will make a show about not yielding on this one but finally will yield.

90% of politics is posturing. So my feeling is that eventually dems will give up on this one and republicans will have a victory to show to their constituents.

Keeping up with the negative slant of news reports today

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hou...6/05/id/508190

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...near-collapse/

[Jonty Rhodes]

gs - this probably is a positive news because it talks about benefit eligibility vs citizenship. Almost indicating that at least some core republicans are ok with citizenship.

I think dems will make a show about not yielding on this one but finally will yield.

90% of politics is posturing. So my feeling is that eventually dems will give up on this one and republicans will have a victory to show to their constituents.

Q, I hope what you wrote comes true and wish that this is just the political posturing. Politics is about compromise, and that is what the President has made it clear on multiple occasions in the past. I just hope, his own party follows it when it comes to controversial provisions or amendments in CIR. Just like Senator Leahy gave up on including LGBT provision in CIR in the broader interest of the survival of the bill, I hope House Democrats give up on the health care benefits for legalized illegals in trade for getting path to citizenship, especially when the legalized illegals are going to eventually get the government health care benefits, after a certain lag period.