Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[gs1968]

CIR will come to the House floor in some shape or form. I honestly hope its the House version of the Bill coz the Senate version has not shot of passing in the House. Ofcourse the issue just like last time will be the Conference at the end of it all. In 2007, the Senate and House both passed their individual bills but couldnt come to a compromise in Conference. Hopefully that doesn't happen this time around. IMO, if the "path to citizenship" issue can be resolved, the Bill will 100% pass.

To viz

In 2007 a conference was never in play as the Senate Bill failed to clear cloture for final vote. The House had a companion Bill called the STRIVE Act co-sponsored by Rep.Luis Gutierrez and Rep.Jeff Flake but the Bill was never taken up in the Judiciary committee.

[rupen86]

My two cents:

1. No one is looking at undocumented for votes; it's rather the votes of existing citizens by way of brethren affiliation.
2. It's mostly staged media in US - and there is money behind pro-immigration this time. If you remember, there was a PAC formed in the aftermath of Presidential elections just for this purpose; the operators know what works. NumberUSA and others were first ones to be painted as ones who espouse minority.
3. The feel that I get from what influential Repubs have been talking in media: they want this done yet retain their conservative base with them. (I dont think they need to worry too much about conservative base. Where would they go? At most some of them would not vote in next elections.)
4. It is not an option for Repubs to try do it under their own regime later. They drop this ball and they wold not get another chance in near future.
5. The irony is that whatever mileage Repubs should get out of supporting it getting destroyed by hatemongerers from NumberUSA and their ilk (check the comments on articles - any immigration news is pounced on by these people using very similar hateful language against hispanics. In India I would feel this is paid effort; I do not know much about US yet).

I believe, undocumented voters are certainly being looked upon as potential future voters once they become citizens. Without that, there would not be so much focus on "path to citizenship". Associated press went as far as calling them "undocumented democrats".

[vizcard]

what one poll says

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...st+Articles%29

[qesehmk]

Viz - the same poll also says 54% people support CIR. And then it says that 71% people don't feel confident that it will actually happen.

what one poll says

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...st+Articles%29

[gs1968]

To Q & Viz
The same Quinnipac poll also said that the support for legalization is down from 59% to 54 %. I am also concerned about the memo from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to the House GOP about the upcoming agenda in the next few months and GOP priorities-

http://blogs.rollcall.com/goppers/ca...ppropriations/

There is a passing mention of immigration at the tail end along with the debt limit.This may be in part due to the absence of actual legislative language in hand and the focus may shift once the House Bill is introduced.However tweets from other Republican sources suggest that the immigration issue may not come up in the House till the fall session

[vizcard]

To viz

In 2007 a conference was never in play as the Senate Bill failed to clear cloture for final vote. The House had a companion Bill called the STRIVE Act co-sponsored by Rep.Luis Gutierrez and Rep.Jeff Flake but the Bill was never taken up in the Judiciary committee.

For some reason, I remember reading about that. Maybe it was something else.

Viz - the same poll also says 54% people support CIR. And then it says that 71% people don't feel confident that it will actually happen.

Barely 50% is not overwhelming to force Congress' hand especially in the heavy White, Republican states.

To Q & Viz
The same Quinnipac poll also said that the support for legalization is down from 59% to 54 %. I am also concerned about the memo from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to the House GOP about the upcoming agenda in the next few months and GOP priorities-

http://blogs.rollcall.com/goppers/ca...ppropriations/

There is a passing mention of immigration at the tail end along with the debt limit.This may be in part due to the absence of actual legislative language in hand and the focus may shift once the House Bill is introduced.However tweets from other Republican sources suggest that the immigration issue may not come up in the House till the fall session

I don't see the same urgency in the House. So Sept wouldn't surprise me. I always felt nothing would pass in this FY.

[gs1968]

To viz
You were probably thinking about the effort in 2005-2006 in the 109th Congress
The following link is instructive and surprisingly draws a lot of parallels with the current proposals

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compreh...rm_Act_of_2006

[qesehmk]

I missed that gs. However it is not surprising. 54% itself is surprising to me given the economic situation.

To Q & Viz
The same Quinnipac poll also said that the support for legalization is down from 59% to 54 %.

[rupen86]

From Oh Law Firm,

RSC calling a meeting on immigration..

http://news.yahoo.com/marco-rubio-ad...144202946.html

[gcq]

I missed that gs. However it is not surprising. 54% itself is surprising to me given the economic situation.

Economy was not a real factor in immigration. Bad economy plays into the hands of anti-immigrants where they can claim "congress is letting more foreigners in when economy is down". Remember, all these anti-immigrant groups and anti-immigrant lawmakers are "fighting for the American people".

I don't think normal people relate economic issues to immigration.

[indiani]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli...icle-1.1361034

chuck schumer prediction on CIR.
But I think all depends on house action as the CIR passing senate isn't surprising issue

[gs1968]

We mourn the loss of Sen.Lautenberg of NJ this AM-he did a lot for immigration especially refugees

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...utenberg-dies/

[vizcard]

We mourn the loss of Sen.Lautenberg of NJ this AM-he did a lot for immigration especially refugees

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...utenberg-dies/

Does Chris Christie (governor) get to decide who takes his spot ?

[gs1968]

Does Chris Christie (governor) get to decide who takes his spot ?

Yes and it is most likely going to be a Republican.However the duration of how long he might serve is apparently very confusing in NJ State Law. The next election is on Nov 5 this year when Gov.Christie himself is up for re-election

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/201...ee-will-serve/

This is from The Hill

Senate GOP aides expect New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) to appoint a Republican, and the possibilities include Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., who ran against Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) in 2006 and attorney Bill Palatucci, a longtime friend and adviser to Christie.

[rupen86]

Interesting analysis on border security.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/..._security.html

[vizcard]

Interesting analysis on border security.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/..._security.html

If you cannot trust the department of HOMELAND SECURITY with SECURING our borders, our politicians are really getting paranoid. What happens if the next Congress is Democrat and the President is Republican?

[delguy]

I think Rubio is just playing politics. He is part of gang of 8 and had all the means to discuss his concerns and get them addressed before releasing the draft. I also don't remember him sending amendments to the judiciary committee. Now he is saying that border security provisions are not adequate and he won't support the bill in current state.

He just want to have best of both worlds. Trying to take lead on the issue to attract Latinos. And now he can blame democrats for being rigid and get conservatives on his side for taking care of their interests too.

[indiani]

I think Rubio is just playing politics. He is part of gang of 8 and had all the means to discuss his concerns and get them addressed before releasing the draft. I also don't remember him sending amendments to the judiciary committee. Now he is saying that border security provisions are not adequate and he won't support the bill in current state.

He just want to have best of both worlds. Trying to take lead on the issue to attract Latinos. And now he can blame democrats for being rigid and get conservatives on his side for taking care of their interests too.

I think you described his rather pathetic situation.
He intially thought abt general elections for president as Mitt romney lost latino vote.
But here comes the problem, he might not make it through the primary either in presidential elections and may be even with primary challenge for senate with this bill , so he is trying to appease republican base , significant portion of which dont like anytype of bill passed.

[delguy]

Marco Rubio: Immigration Reform Doesn't Have 60 Votes

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3383319.html

hmmmm.... leave others, does it have yours Mr Rubio?

[immitime]

I think you described his rather pathetic situation.
He intially thought abt general elections for president as Mitt romney lost latino vote.
But here comes the problem, he might not make it through the primary either in presidential elections and may be even with primary challenge for senate with this bill , so he is trying to appease republican base , significant portion of which dont like anytype of bill passed.

Take out Same Sex marriage immigration, and 11 million amnesty.. Immigration bill will pass this year. Otherwise it is doubtful. Nothing like Republican party don't like anytype of bills passed. Remember H.R. 3012 was their initiative. Everybody knows by this time Harry Reid intentionally stalled it. So now we know who is Anti LEGAL immigrant... all just for Votes Votes Votes!

[gcq]

I think you described his rather pathetic situation.
He intially thought abt general elections for president as Mitt romney lost latino vote.
But here comes the problem, he might not make it through the primary either in presidential elections and may be even with primary challenge for senate with this bill , so he is trying to appease republican base , significant portion of which dont like anytype of bill passed.

This is a long term problem for GOP presidential candidates now. Unless they are right wing fanatics/nuts, they won't get through the GOP primary. If he gets through GOP primary, he is no longer a good candidate for general public as he is too far to the right. That is one of the reasons Romney failed. In general he is a moderate republican. To appease right wing GOP, he said some things that came back to haunt him during the real election.

[Jonty Rhodes]

This is a long term problem for GOP presidential candidates now. Unless they are right wing fanatics/nuts, they won't get through the GOP primary. If he gets through GOP primary, he is no longer a good candidate for general public as he is too far to the right. That is one of the reasons Romney failed. In general he is a moderate republican. To appease right wing GOP, he said some things that came back to haunt him during the real election.

Can't agree more.

[indiani]

Take out Same Sex marriage immigration, and 11 million amnesty.. Immigration bill will pass this year. Otherwise it is doubtful. Nothing like Republican party don't like anytype of bills passed. Remember H.R. 3012 was their initiative. Everybody knows by this time Harry Reid intentionally stalled it. So now we know who is Anti LEGAL immigrant... all just for Votes Votes Votes!

I believe you know already same sex ammendment not attached. without amnesty there is going to be no bill as obama and senate democratic leadership are doing this whole exercise to appease latinos and to get future voters for generations.

Republicans (far right ones) wanted no immigration bills at all. Democrats on the other hand wanted only CIR and nothing else.

I am not sure whether you followed the visa re-capture bill and HR 3012, how they just died , there was no amnesty .

I am personally involved in 3012, putting both money and time in effort., i was so fed up that I thought i would rather live with EAD as its extremely frustrating to get anything done in washington.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Some more rhetoric from House, this time pro-reform. But I just don't know how they are going to pass the immigration reform by August when they haven't even released the draft of their immigration bill yet. On top of that, the House Republicans are talking about taking a piecemeal approach than comprehensive one which Democrats won't accept. Also, if there is no path to citizenship for illegals, the Democrats won't support it and the bill will die. I know that 2 months is a long time in politics but looking at the current scenario, I just don't see the House passing the immigration reform by August unless some miracle happens.

http://news.yahoo.com/house-could-pa...165829958.html

[seahawks2012]

Apart from the political drama, all I understand is that: "Obama/Democratic party is holding Legal Immigration improvements hostage for the Latino votes"