Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[Spectator]

Don't think anyone has realized truly how many extra visas EB gets from this bill. Exmpting depents more than doubles the numbers right away. Total % increases to 40%. Then getting 1/7th of the merit based system (add 65K form FB-4 and 55K from DV and that's were you get the number) reserved for 7 years. Plus, those that have been pending for three years seem to get another chunck of visas, not sure how many.

Waiting for the actual text but my initial estimate is that they are essentially tripling the number of EB2/3 visas.

justvisiting,

I totally agree with you.

Expressed in terms of numbers today, for EB2 it means:

a) 40% instead of 28.6% increases the number to 56k.

b) Elimination of dependents from numerical limits increases the number to 112k (it will be higher for EB3).

c) Elimination of STEM PhD, physicians etc probably increases the effective number to 120k.

EB2-WW don't use more than 35k tops in a normal FY, so that leaves at least 85k for EB2-IC (probably more because EB2-WW also have STEM PhD etc). EB2-C don't actually require that many to become Current but would move at the same pace as EB2-I.

Backlog to May 2010 is approx 50k for EB2-IC currently and will reduce by the end of the year.

Using worst case scenario, let's call it 40k at the end of FY2013. You can just call it the present 50k - it doesn't make much difference.

There's about 45k EB2-IC cases from May 2010 to Jan 2012 based on PERM figures by my estimation.

85k available would pretty much make EB2-IC Current in the first year or early in the second year.

I haven't even considered the other factors mentioned which would improve this calculation (only the 3 above).

I haven't looked at EB3. Obviously that would take a little longer, but it isn't going to take that long to become Current.

On the negative side, it seems almost inevitable that processing times will increase - I wouldn't be totally surprised if they increase to 1-2 years initially. Even if USCIS have any plans to increase capacity, it takes time to train new IO.

I look forward to seeing the actual Bill text. That will answer the questions that are currently left hanging. Until then, I am out of the discussion.

[Pedro Gonzales]

With all the post's regarding the CIR, what happens to current EB2 without Masters? Will they be classified as new EB3?
"

No, existing applications will not be reclassified, and should clear very quickly due to a) elimination of dependents which will effectively double available visa numbers and b) the promise to clear all applications (EB2 and EB3) pre Oct 1 2011 by Oct 1 2014 (presumably through recapture of lost visa numbers. Item 'a' alone should clear all EB2 (including those post Oct 2011). See Spec's analysis above for more detail.

[abcx13]

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/15283458...ry-of-New-Bill

Some interesting observations even if the leaked PDF was an old draft and not the final version. Wonder whether the bill will be out today. Already 5:15.

[abcx13]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...rity-concerns/

Good news - Obama expressed support. This is in line with what he wanted...

[abcx13]

justvisiting,

I totally agree with you.

Expressed in terms of numbers today, for EB2 it means:

a) 40% instead of 28.6% increases the number to 56k.

b) Elimination of dependents from numerical limits increases the number to 112k (it will be higher for EB3).

c) Elimination of STEM PhD, physicians etc probably increases the effective number to 120k.

EB2-WW don't use more than 35k tops in a normal FY, so that leaves at least 85k for EB2-IC (probably more because EB2-WW also have STEM PhD etc). EB2-C don't actually require that many to become Current but would move at the same pace as EB2-I.

Backlog to May 2010 is approx 50k for EB2-IC currently and will reduce by the end of the year.

Using worst case scenario, let's call it 40k at the end of FY2013. You can just call it the present 50k - it doesn't make much difference.

There's about 45k EB2-IC cases from May 2010 to Jan 2012 based on PERM figures by my estimation.

85k available would pretty much make EB2-IC Current in the first year or early in the second year.

I haven't even considered the other factors mentioned which would improve this calculation (only the 3 above).

I haven't looked at EB3. Obviously that would take a little longer, but it isn't going to take that long to become Current.

On the negative side, it seems almost inevitable that processing times will increase - I wouldn't be totally surprised if they increase to 1-2 years initially. Even if USCIS have any plans to increase capacity, it takes time to train new IO.

I look forward to seeing the actual Bill text. That will answer the questions that are currently left hanging. Until then, I am out of the discussion.

Thanks for setting me straight, Spec. I feel better after reading your analysis of EB numbers.

Is there no premium processing for I485?

[CleanSock]

Sorry if this has been asked before and answered. The article states speedy processing of GCs for legals who graduated in STEM field in last 5 years. What happens to those who graduated before 5 years and the ones graduating now?

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/15283458...ry-of-New-Bill

Some interesting observations even if the leaked PDF was an old draft and not the final version. Wonder whether the bill will be out today. Already 5:15.

[idiotic]

It's really a good bill. Wonderful work from "Gang of 8".

[rhythm]

After reading through all the texts available, I would say the bill is Golden !

One thing I see everywhere is this: - 'Eliminates the backlog for family and employment-based visas'. But how is the biggest question and the answer would be what most people in the forum is looking for I'm sure.

[vizcard]

After reading through all the texts available, I would say the bill is Golden !

One thing I see everywhere is this: - 'Eliminates the backlog for family and employment-based visas'. But how is the biggest question and the answer would be what most people in the forum is looking for I'm sure.

In my opinion, its the combination of taking people off the cap and getting rid of DVs. That's a net increase as Spec calculated above for EB and I'm sure there's a similar calculation for FB. Take out the per country limits and everyone gets to carry a new card in their wallets (or put it in a safe deposit locker) pretty quickly

[iwait3]

No, existing applications will not be reclassified, and should clear very quickly due to a) elimination of dependents which will effectively double available visa numbers and b) the promise to clear all applications (EB2 and EB3) pre Oct 1 2011 by Oct 1 2014 (presumably through recapture of lost visa numbers. Item 'a' alone should clear all EB2 (including those post Oct 2011). See Spec's analysis above for more detail.

thx Pedro,

[Spectator]

Thanks for setting me straight, Spec. I feel better after reading your analysis of EB numbers.

Is there no premium processing for I485?

abcx13,

I wasn't trying to put anyone straight.

I was really just agreeing with justvisiting that it appears to substantially increase the numbers even with the parts I think I understand.

For instance, I'm still not entirely clear in my own mind quite how the "merit based" system meshes with the existing system. That part of the summary document doesn't seem entirely clear to me.

I think it appears to be pretty honest attempt to deal with the problem, even if when the detail becomes clear, it doesn't include everything that some people had hoped for.

For those already in the system, it appears to offer a fairly speedy resolution (at least compared to the alternative of no CIR). The numbers I used were a pretty quick and rough attempt to illustrate what it might mean - I certainly haven't covered everything.

Currently, there is no PP for I-485 and I didn't see anything from my reading of the Summary that suggested it would be introduced. I admit I have not had time today for anything other than a cursory glance, so please correct me if I am incorrect.

That really is my last word until the detail is available. Still lots of questions in my mind.

[qesehmk]

I think the idea is for merit based system to REPLACE current quota system.

I'm still not entirely clear in my own mind quite how the "merit based" system meshes with the existing system.

[justvisiting]

I think the idea is for merit based system to REPLACE current quota system.

Right now there are five roads:
-IR
-FB
-EB
-DV
-Refugee, etc...

The new bill will have five roads:
-Immediate Visas (now including old FB-2 and EB-1)
-FB (only including current FB-1 and FB-3)
-EB
-Merit-Based (using visas from old DV and FB-4)
-Refugee, etc...

[justvisiting]

I also want to add that with the amount of new visas in this bill, country caps are irrelevant. I also think it will be very hard to fit the country caps within the new system. I bet they are gone even for FB.

[gc_soon]

Looks like there is no seperate quota for undocumented workers.
So, once the 11M qualifies after 10 years, (let's say at least 3M will apply), they will apply in existing categories. Can see merit based queue being backlogged easily.

[gc_soon]

Any ideas on when the bill (if it becomes a law) will be effective from?

[justvisiting]

Looks like there is no seperate quota for undocumented workers.
So, once the 11M qualifies after 10 years, (let's say at least 3M will apply), they will apply in existing categories. Can see merit based queue being backlogged easily.

But EB is a separate number, so it doesn't really impact those here legally. Presumably many of those 11M will be able to use the FB system too.

[feedmyback]

Hi Gurus,

I saw this in the CIR draft:

"Currently, there are four preference categories based on family relationships and 480,000visas are allocated to family. Under the new system there will be two family preferencecategories and they will cover unmarried adult children; married adult children who file before age 31, and unmarried adult children of lawful permanent residents. We are expandingthe current V visa to include those with family relationships. "

Does this mean that now there are only two categories and still there are 480,000 visas, there is a possibility to have more spillover from FB to EB? Agreed that might be a moot point when CIR passes. But technically is that a right assumption?

[gc_soon]

As per Rubio, no country quota:
Please listen to the video at 2:40.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/rub...4/16/id/499727

[qesehmk]

The merit based will eventually replace all EB options.

Right now there are five roads:
-IR
-FB
-EB
-DV
-Refugee, etc...

The new bill will have five roads:
-Immediate Visas (now including old FB-2 and EB-1)
-FB (only including current FB-1 and FB-3)
-EB
-Merit-Based (using visas from old DV and FB-4)
-Refugee, etc...

[justvisiting]

The merit based will eventually replace all EB options.

Not from what is in the summary. If that were true, the 120K visas would be a net cut from the current 140K and would exclude EB-4 and EB-5. And why keep EB-1 then? Merit based is a new track. The first 5 years of merit based visas are reserved to clear FB/EB backlogs. Merit-based is the new pathway for low skilled workers after those 5 years.

[qesehmk]

You are right that Merit visa is separate track. While the first five year reservation for EB FB backlog is right ... that itself starts in fifth year.

On another note - one important thing for all future GC holders is that parents of GC holders will be considered immediate relatives and be eligible for GCs.

Not from what is in the summary. If that were true, the 120K visas would be a net cut from the current 140K and would exclude EB-4 and EB-5. And why keep EB-1 then? Merit based is a new track. The first 5 years of merit based visas are reserved to clear FB/EB backlogs. Merit-based is the new pathway for low skilled workers after those 5 years.

[qesehmk]

Revised Summary (for EB immigration reform in order of Importance).
(Eliminating the Reuters piece now since it is a subset of the scribd version).

From Scribd
1. Elimination of numerical cap for

• Dependents
• EB1-A & B & C
• PHD in STEM
• Doctors

2. Change in composition of visas as follows

• EB1 - no quota - no limits
• EB2 + EB3 w US degrees - 40%
• EB3 - 40%
• EB4 - 10%
• EB5 - 10%
• Additionally a startup visa category (may be part of EB5 - except that startup visa will be much less stringent on investment and jobs created)

3. Separate Merit Based Track will start in fifth year aimed at reducing backlog for first five years and then will be open to low skilled workers as well.

• Merit based cap will keep increasing to 240K max as long as US unemployment is under 8.5% (this is quite funny since it barely exceeded 8.5% even under worst conditions in 2008-2009)

4. Immediate Relatives Definition Expanded
- Parents of GC holders will be considered immediate relatives (immediate relatives are exempt from numerical caps).


Our understanding will evolve .... so lets keep revising ...

Good luck to everybody.

[feedmyback]

Hi Q,

Under the categories with annual numerical limits the exact text is:

"US STEM Master Degree holders who earned the degree 5 years immediately before petition is filed: 40%"

Any insight into why they kept the condition of earning a degree 5 yrs immly before petition is filed?

[feedmyback]

Hi Q,

I don't think parents of GC holders are considered immediate relatives and they will not be granted any GCs I guess.

Thanks