Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[seattlet]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

[qesehmk]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

seattlet - I would disagree with that. The only way EB immigrants will get any relief is piggybacking on CIR. Republicans will not do CIR. Bush Jr tried doing that. He had GOP votes in both houses. McCain stood by him but it went nowhere.

The problem with EB is it has absolutely no real backers. The vote bank is too small for Obama or ANY other politician to care. The corporations love H1B but they don't care about GCs. The corporations actually dont like GCs because then they lose their H1B slave. So obviously GOP is not going to support GCs.

Mark Zuckerberg is the only guy who is for EB. But I am not sure I understand quite well what exactly his interest is.

Anyway ... but to summarize - given that there are no backers for EB (GOP or Dems or Corporates) the only way EB can get any relief is via piggybacking on CIR.

[PD2008AUG25]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

I don't think that's true. If Republicans wanted to do that, they already had many chances. HR3012 is one example. Bill to provide 50000 GCs for STEM graduates is another one. The later was poisoned by eliminating diversity lottery. That one would really have put Democrats in bind by breaking tech-bussiness/latino alliance. Fact is just like pretty much every group, Republicans are not monolith. There are some who supports increasing legal immigration, some don't want any change and some totally oppose all immigration. If Senate goes republican, with Grassely, Sessions and Cruz in Judiciary committe can't expect to pass anything from Senate which doesn't have poison pill inviting Obama's veto.

Let's hope Obama still issues EO after November elections *and* it has something for legals.

[seattlet]

My concern is an EO if issued after republicans get both senate and congress in nov will be ill timed. Obama would have less moral authority to pass one when democrats no longer hold either congress and senate. Republicans will definitely sue such an EO and with a conservative majority in us supreme court Obama might just lose his last weapon.

I dont think republicans would hurt legals more than dems. For what i know if mitt romney had bern president legals would probably been better off since he seemed to be staunch supporter of legal immigration and green cards for legals

[qesehmk]

I think PDFeb said it very nicely. No party is a monolith. There are intersections of interests. So you will find both reps and dems that are for and against immigration.

Unfortunately EB doesnt stand at any cross roads. See that's the problem.

That's why I said EB's best bet is riding on CIR and i think Obama will do something post election because
1) Then he is not afraid of anybody in his own party or in GOP
2) He will be desperate to do something that will solidify his legacy.
3/ Immigration will be the last thing he can now influence between Nov 2014 - May 2015. Post May 2015 he becomes a lame duck president.

While EB is not large constituency to influence him - he will take care of them because EB is not where GOP is going to oppose him.

[Immigo]

While it may be a moot point, it would be interesting to know what recommendations reached Obama's table (as this may explain why he took a U turn in less than 24 hrs).

[idiotic]

Isn't this a lie?

When pressed on the politics behind his move, Obama said it wasn't because he wants Democrats to maintain control of the Senate.

"That's not the reason," Obama said.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...#ixzz3CazBZ3c0
Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook

[idiotic]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

What is the republican proposal you are talking about? I have not heard about any republican bill which will get Sen. Grassley's and Rep. Steve King's vote apart from repealing DACA / Eliminating birth right citizenship and all the glorious anti immigrant proposals at numbersusa.com ?

Obama is much better than Grassley and Steve King. If Republicans get control of Senate, guest worker visas policy is "come .. work.. earn.. pay tax and then go back to home country". In other words, net Green card neutral solutions.

[qesehmk]

If Republicans get control of Senate, guest worker visas policy is "come .. work.. earn.. pay tax and then go back to home country".

Extremely well said!

Look .... regardless of your and mine political affiliation (and of course all of us have a good reason why we like or don't a particular party), it is very crucial to understand that AFA GOP is concerned - the above sums up their immigration stance. They like slave and cheap labor. They don't want permanent immigrants.

[aquatican]

Not surprising. He actually does not like immigration and has mentioned it in his book. But he sure loves illegals. ( probably their votes).
honestly the reason we have had no movement in legal immigration is entirely his doing. he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.

As expected NO SHOW again. He does not have the will to do anything for Legal immigrants.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireS...ction-25312272

[cursedguy]

Not surprising. He actually does not like immigration and has mentioned it in his book. But he sure loves illegals. ( probably their votes).
honestly the reason we have had no movement in legal immigration is entirely his doing. he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.

Another sad thing about Indian EB3 category is, in the near future there will be a second generation of H1B's meaning the kids of H1b's who will graduate and/or become (Adults) and either need to find a Job that sponsors H1b or Leave the country ?

[idiotic]

he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.

You mean HR3012 ?

[imdeng]

Well - spillover to EB3I is coming. I think we are going to be gloriously surprised how fast that line will move in about an year. There have been reports of EB2C downgrading to EB3C. We might reach a similar scenario in 4-5 years for EB2I->EB3I. Wouldn't that be something!!

Another sad thing about Indian EB3 category is, in the near future there will be a second generation of H1B's meaning the kids of H1b's who will graduate and/or become (Adults) and either need to find a Job that sponsors H1b or Leave the country ?

[PD2008AUG25]

Not surprising. He actually does not like immigration and has mentioned it in his book. But he sure loves illegals. ( probably their votes).
honestly the reason we have had no movement in legal immigration is entirely his doing. he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.

I think blame should be on Democrats and not on Obama for holding up Legal immigration. While he didn't explicitly said he would veto HR3012, he did say that he wanted comprehensive bill.

As a counterpoint, consider H4 EAD rule. There isn't anything to gain politically by fixing that. At least someone in that administration wants to help legals without spending too much political capital.

[seattlet]

Even H4 rule is being done by this administration only because the legal immigration lobby folks had spent so much capital on obama and they want something. For the folks who believe that republicans are hurting legals, I think if Silicon valley had spent the lobby money on Republicans, the result would have been much better. Atleast republicans would do stuff for the money spent (compared to obama who had raised millions of dollars in bay area alone for his election efforts all the while promising folks to do better on legal immigration and so far hasnt moved his little finger)

If republicans had got a millions of dollars from silicon valley they would have probably created an A380 shuttle service to india with green card on arrival


A portion of democrats (trade unions) are also opposed to any immigration just like some republicans. democrat Congressmen and senators from blue collar territories might pretty much not like any immigration changes to protect their vote base else they stand to lose against republicans.

My take is Obama hasnt done anything in 6 years, will probably lose both congress and senate to republicans in november and at that point, would just blame republicans rather than take any action. Instead if the legal immigration lobby choses to spend its money wisely on republicans, they do stand to definitely gain something

[aquatican]

He did block HR3012 though that was joint effort by Democrats and Obama.
For Obama the illegals are a much better bet because they promise votes and future democrats.
I read his book before the elections and he actually has a bias against educated immigrants who have high skills. ( Go figure).
The reason he has looked into the issue is because of business lobby and to soften the blow of amnesty to 5+ millions.

Democrats will always hold legal immigration hostage to illegal immigration because they have the most go gain from hispanic bloc.
Legal immigrant community which needs relief is around ~1 Million. Illegals 15+ million.

You mean HR3012 ?

[iatiam]

He did block HR3012 though that was joint effort by Democrats and Obama.
For Obama the illegals are a much better bet because they promise votes and future democrats.
I read his book before the elections and he actually has a bias against educated immigrants who have high skills. ( Go figure).
The reason he has looked into the issue is because of business lobby and to soften the blow of amnesty to 5+ millions.

Democrats will always hold legal immigration hostage to illegal immigration because they have the most go gain from hispanic bloc.
Legal immigrant community which needs relief is around ~1 Million. Illegals 15+ million.

Just to jog people's memory a little bit, the AC21 rule and massive re-capture was done at a time when Republicans were controlling both senate and house. Of course Bill Clinton was forthcoming to work with them to get it passed (unlike Obama who just pays lip service).

If any one had listened to republican primaries in 2012 you could hear candidates like Romney and Huntsman speaking favorably for legal immigration. Media completely ignored these and chose to focus on Romney's "self-deportation" comment. Obama also played his cards properly and gave EADs to all dreamers while people like us who got in the line and waited decades were cheated. Now the country is in a mess with massive illegal immigration from south of the border, a lot of americans were regretting their decision to vote for Obama. Oh well, hind sight is always 20/20

[gs1968]

To iatiam

There was a post a few days ago which stated the wide diversity amongst Republicans also as it is with Democrats. Much of legislative success depends on the initiative and enthusiasm of Committee chairman especially in the Senate where the rules are more convoluted.The AC21 rule was under the Chairmanship of Sen.Orrin Hatch who worked hard to make this happen. The upcoming elections if they were to go the Republican way would place Sen.Grassley and Sen.Sessions at the helm of the Judiciary committee and both of them are unlikely to be sympathetic to EB visas.Sen.Hatch will most likely take over as Chairman of the Finance committee as he has never served in this position while Sen.Grassley has already done so.Hence it is not the parties in power but the players that matter.

[gten20]

Prediction: CIR will be a hot topic for 2016 election.. I fear Obama has no political gain to do anything right after mid-terms. He and fellow Democrats will milk it in 2016 to help get another Dem. President in white house.

I hope Obama said he is going to delay EO to get republicans to work with him to avoid govt. shutdown and once Republicans do that, he will sign EO on immigration before Nov. mid-terms. This is far-fetched, but I cannot see a reason why he would act on EO after mid-terms. Boehner has already started preparing his new year resolution - CIR "might" possible in 201X ( current value of X = 5, prev. values - 4,3). After mid-terms he will ask the president to give the new congress a chance before issuing EO and this will play till 2016 elections. GOP will want to pass some immigration bills too in 2015-16 to help rebuild their image before 2016 election.

What are your thoughts Gurus? What will Obama gain and why will he act right after mid-terms?

[idiotic]

He did block HR3012 though that was joint effort by Democrats and Obama.
For Obama the illegals are a much better bet because they promise votes and future democrats.
I read his book before the elections and he actually has a bias against educated immigrants who have high skills. ( Go figure).
The reason he has looked into the issue is because of business lobby and to soften the blow of amnesty to 5+ millions.

Democrats will always hold legal immigration hostage to illegal immigration because they have the most go gain from hispanic bloc.
Legal immigrant community which needs relief is around ~1 Million. Illegals 15+ million.

Republican policy on immigration is clearly stated clearly by Mr. King -- "We have to pick the best dogs". who is not very different from Sen . Grassley who will head Judiciary committee if republicans take senate.
If you believe these people are better than Obama when it comes to immigration policy, good luck to you. Take a look at numbersusa and FAIR report cards of congressmen and senators and count number of republicans and democrats who "scored well" with them.

They are not some 2 random congressmen and Senators to brush aside as irrelevant republicans. These are people who are the real watchdogs and responsible for actual death of HR3012 (Credit should be to Sen. Grassley) and death of CIR in 113th(Credit goes to Rep. King. He won the battle which was lost in Senate by Sen. Sessions and Sen. Grassley).

Democrats hold everyone hostage because it is difficult to get around this strong anti immigrant republican lobby. It is only increasingly getting clear congress after congress. 113th was just recent example. I do not have any problem in 1 million waiting for relief of 15 million so that entire population gets relief.

This is my last. We have to agree to disagree.

[idiotic]

If republicans had got a millions of dollars from silicon valley they would have probably created an A380 shuttle service to india with green card on arrival

Simply speechless. No point in discussing further.

[idiotic]

Simply speechless. No point in discussing further.

A- (0% of peer group)
King, Steve (Rep. - 4th) R - IA 86%
Sessions, Jeff (Sen.) R - AL 86%
B+ (4% of peer group)
Brooks, Mo (Rep. - 5th) R - AL 85%
Cruz, Ted (Sen.) R - TX 85%
Grassley, Charles (Sen.) R - IA 85%
Lee, Mike (Sen.) R - UT 85%
Black, Diane (Rep. - 6th) R - TN 84%
Enzi, Michael (Sen.) R - WY 84%
Nunnelee, Alan (Rep. - 1st) R - MS 84%
Vitter, David (Sen.) R - LA 84%
Barrasso, John (Sen.) R - WY 83%
Boozman, John (Sen.) R - AR 83%
Crapo, Michael (Sen.) R - ID 83%
Gingrey, Phil (Rep. - 11th) R - GA 83%
Inhofe, James (Sen.) R - OK 83%
Roberts, Pat (Sen.) R - KS 83%
Scott, Tim (Sen.) R - SC 83%
Shelby, Richard (Sen.) R - AL 83%
Blackburn, Marsha (Rep. - 7th) R - TN 82%
Jones, Walter (Rep. - 3rd) R - NC 82%
Marchant, Kenny (Rep. - 24th) R - TX 82%
Risch, Jim (Sen.) R - ID 82%
Barletta, Louis (Rep. - 11th) R - PA 81%
Flores, William (Rep. - 17th) R - TX 81%
McClintock, Tom (Rep. - 4th) R - CA 81%

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/m...A/Grade/Active

[qesehmk]

I think people who pin hopes on GOP are suffering from stockhome syndrome. You may find it harsh assessment but sooner or later you will realize that most of the racist anti immigrant folks live on the GOP side. If you think just because you earn double or triple six figures or more that makes you one of them you are mistaken. Just look at Jewish community that uses GOP for all sorts of things but in the end they do vote democrat.

My objective is not to debate party politics here. But the point is you have to make an effort to find ANY pro-immigrant sentiment on GOP side. They don't even want Emp based immigration. They do want H1s. But H1s is not same as GCs.

Finally GOP has become rabid anti-immigrant party even as the country is becoming majority minority country. Their stance is hardening because of the lunatic right wing they have. Those who remember amnesty under Reagan must understand that Ronald Reagan's GOP didn't have a tea party wing.

[imdeng]

Lets not get too far into the party politics discussion. It does not add any value to this forum.

[qesehmk]

Yes imdeng. The key thing i wanted to say was this. Everything else is kind of rant!!!

Those who remember amnesty under Reagan must understand that Ronald Reagan's GOP didn't have a tea party wing.

Lets not get too far into the party politics discussion. It does not add any value to this forum.