Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[gten20]

Politicians are really thick skinned to be embarrassed easily. The no. one priority is getting re-elected and controlling power. Everything revolves or works around this priority.

If Obama wont act before mid-terms, he will find a good reason to blame republicans or blame a situation (ISIS, border surge, or something else). I think he will only act when he can get max. benefits.. like 2012 DACA. When he says "We are considering everything", that everything is the timing or situation to get max. benefit.

it would be really embarrassment for POTUS to speak out on rose garden defining a date and then the date pass and he do nothing.
so something must be announced in September for sure but what it is that's we don't know!

[imdeng]

Obama plays the long game. He is going to bait Republicans into overreacting and doing something like shutting down the govt again. Republicans will oblige, they will likely also benefit during 2014 mid terms and then the whole thing will come back to bite them big time in 2016 onwards.

I think most folks do not get the magnitude of the coming demographic storm. Last year just about 50% of babies born in the country were other-than-non-hispanic-white. Public school enrollments already are minority-majority. We are living in the most interesting demographic period in this country.

Politically, the advanced warnings are FL, VA, NC and CO. All four will go blue in 2016 and there is no way in hell that Republicans can win the presidency without ALL of those. None of these are going to turn without Republicans getting *some* minority support - and Obama is baiting them into going a whole generation without getting any significant minority support.

[gcq]

Politicians are really thick skinned to be embarrassed easily. The no. one priority is getting re-elected and controlling power. Everything revolves or works around this priority.

If Obama wont act before mid-terms, he will find a good reason to blame republicans or blame a situation (ISIS, border surge, or something else). I think he will only act when he can get max. benefits.. like 2012 DACA. When he says "We are considering everything", that everything is the timing or situation to get max. benefit.

To add to this point, Obama/Democrats were given an ultimatum during the elections that if he won't act on immigration, hispanics would stay away from the polls. At that point Pres had nothing to lose, only to gain from DACA.

[Jonty Rhodes]

it would be really embarrassment for POTUS to speak out on rose garden defining a date and then the date pass and he do nothing.
so something must be announced in September for sure but what it is that's we don't know!

I just said in the previous post and gten20 also has mentioned in his post, that at the end of the day, they are politicians and they will only take actions when they can get political benefits (e.g. getting re-elected) out of them.

Do you think that President issued an EO on DACA because of his deep sympathy for those children? No. It was done because their extended families were basically a Democratic Vote Bank and he had nothing to lose by issuing EO on DACA. He would have gained only by doing that which was exactly he did. Yes, ideologically he supported those children staying in US but that was not the only reason because ideologically he also supports legal immigration but has he done anything for that so far?

Now, look at this news. He is reverting back on his self-imposed deadline. Now, he wants more time on immigration. As I have mentioned in one of my previous posts last week, the first EO could be coming on Border Security. This is exactly he is talking about. That is because incumbent Democrats may face tough time during election. President obviously does not want to take the risk of losing Senate. So now the news is that EO on Border Security may come first, followed by Mid-term elections, followed by possible EO for illegals depending on the results of mid-term elections and situation at that time. We are potentially talking about November end or December, which means nothing will happen till Mid-January before Martin Luther King Day.

Now, suddenly there is no talk on legal immigration at all so it is highly possible that absolutely nothing may happen for us. No EO, no Bill. Both parties will continue to blame each other.

I wish I am proved wrong but this is an old game that we have seen many times. So I have absolutely zero hopes. I would not be so optimistic and keep high expectations from these thick skinned politicians.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/nation...829-story.html

[kkruna]

To get any benefit out of the EOs, he needs to act before the elections - probably close to the elections to not let Republican shape the debate in vulnerable constituencies. May be he will start with Border issue, then take up Legal immigration, and then take up the last part.

I think his talks about "if Congress doesn't do anything..." is a red herring - meant more for the past than for future congresss action.

[Jonty Rhodes]

To get any benefit out of the EOs, he needs to act before the elections - probably close to the elections to not let Republican shape the debate in vulnerable constituencies. May be he will start with Border issue, then take up Legal immigration, and then take up the last part.

I think his talks about "if Congress doesn't do anything..." is a red herring - meant more for the past than for future congresss action.

I do not agree with that. President does not need to act before elections. In fact, he actually does not need to act at all before 2016 Elections. If he does not do anything right now, he most likely will be able to save the Senate majority. House on the other side, will retain Republican majority after November elections.

In a nutshell, illegals have hope only from one party - i.e. Democrats, for getting something done for them. Illegals know that GOP in its current form won't do anything for them. So even if President doesn't do anything for illegals, they will rave and rant but ultimately have to fall back on Democrats for any kind of relief.

It is like having only one doctor in town (President) so regardless how the doctor is, people (illegals) will have to get treated with whatever they have and if the doctor (President) decides not to treat them for 2 months, they don't have a choice but to wait for those 2 months, especially when the other option is to leave the town (leave US).

So illegals will take out rallies and criticize the President but ultimately will fall back upon him for any relief. Hispanic votes are not going anywhere. They will vote Democrats only just in hope of getting something done. That bodes out perfectly for the President and Democrats in general. If they do EOs before 2016 elections, Hispanic will vote in hoards for Democrats.

When it comes to legals, we make a very small community and are not a substantial vote bank. Nothing will be done for us separately. We will be always piggybacking on illegals whether we like it or not. Yes, both parties agree when it comes to legal immigration and still we are being held hostage to the amnesty debate but that's the reality.

Now, WH wants national debate on this issue. See how the President is slowly creating an exit route for himself. First delay EO, there by allowing opposition to raise awareness on the issue, which in turn will create more opposition, which ultimately will give him an opportunity to not do anything and blame GOP for not doing anything for immigration. This is an old game and everyone can see through it.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/29/wh...obama-amnesty/

[kkruna]

Probably he will still do something low voltage to save face and to project some continuity. Question remains how does he get dems to vote in larger numbers in Nov.

[aquatican]

So when there is a drumbeat of imminent executive action keep in mind that the white house pollsters are actively sensing public sentiment, issue response and taking feedback from the democrats as to what potential repercussions in their districts. As we all know now the "Summer Deadline" wasn't really a deadline. Executive action will now be pushed past elections ( 50% + probability).

I do not agree with that. President does not need to act before elections. In fact, he actually does not need to act at all before 2016 Elections. If he does not do anything right now, he most likely will be able to save the Senate majority. House on the other side, will retain Republican majority after November elections.


In a nutshell, illegals have hope only from one party - i.e. Democrats, for getting something done for them. Illegals know that GOP in its current form won't do anything for them. So even if President doesn't do anything for illegals, they will rave and rant but ultimately have to fall back on Democrats for any kind of relief.

It is like having only one doctor in town (President) so regardless how the doctor is, people (illegals) will have to get treated with whatever they have and if the doctor (President) decides not to treat them for 2 months, they don't have a choice but to wait for those 2 months, especially when the other option is to leave the town (leave US).

So illegals will take out rallies and criticize the President but ultimately will fall back upon him for any relief. Hispanic votes are not going anywhere. They will vote Democrats only just in hope of getting something done. That bodes out perfectly for the President and Democrats in general. If they do EOs before 2016 elections, Hispanic will vote in hoards for Democrats.

When it comes to legals, we make a very small community and are not a substantial vote bank. Nothing will be done for us separately. We will be always piggybacking on illegals whether we like it or not. Yes, both parties agree when it comes to legal immigration and still we are being held hostage to the amnesty debate but that's the reality.

Now, WH wants national debate on this issue. See how the President is slowly creating an exit route for himself. First delay EO, there by allowing opposition to raise awareness on the issue, which in turn will create more opposition, which ultimately will give him an opportunity to not do anything and blame GOP for not doing anything for immigration. This is an old game and everyone can see through it.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/29/wh...obama-amnesty/

[gten20]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...migration.html

[idiotic]

Now, Boehner says next year. He never changes his word year after year.. It's always next year

If republicans take Senate and House (which looks increasingly likely), Sen. Grassley will be at helm of Judiciary committee and with Rep. Steve King on other side, we have bright reform coming up for both legal and illegal

We would be happy to hang on to our H1B visas, if they still exist after the republican reform. (http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/...m-bill-protect)

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-T...form-Next-Year

[imdeng]

There is a very interesting dynamic going on. I would recommend this piece for a good analysis of the Boehner's comments: http://hotair.com/archives/2014/09/0...year-you-know/

The fight is not for whether some kind of immigration action will happen - fight is for who gets the credit. In fact, chances of a watered down immigration reform passing the republican house/senate is higher because then they can claim credit. Obama, OTOH, would like to get this done via EO after the midterms so that Dems get the credit in 2016.

BTW - I don't think it is happening before the midterms. Seems like they want the senate elections to play out.

Now, Boehner says next year. He never changes his word year after year.. It's always next year

If republicans take Senate and House (which looks increasingly likely), Sen. Grassley will be at helm of Judiciary committee and with Rep. Steve King on other side, we have bright reform coming up for both legal and illegal

We would be happy to hang on to our H1B visas, if they still exist after the republican reform. (http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/...m-bill-protect)

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-T...form-Next-Year

[idiotic]

There is a very interesting dynamic going on. I would recommend this piece for a good analysis of the Boehner's comments: http://hotair.com/archives/2014/09/0...year-you-know/

The fight is not for whether some kind of immigration action will happen - fight is for who gets the credit. In fact, chances of a watered down immigration reform passing the republican house/senate is higher because then they can claim credit. Obama, OTOH, would like to get this done via EO after the midterms so that Dems get the credit in 2016.

Lame duck session after midterm is the only possibility "if Obama ever wants it to get it done" or leave the issue as playground for next presidential election.
I am very skeptical about republican version of immigration reform with all anti immigrant hawks writing that bill. We would be grateful if they don't harm our existing guest worker visas.

BTW - I don't think it is happening before the midterms. Seems like they want the senate elections to play out.

Agreed. Obama's recent comments that this process takes time made it official.

[PD2008AUG25]

The fight is not for whether some kind of immigration action will happen - fight is for who gets the credit. In fact, chances of a watered down immigration reform passing the republican house/senate is higher because then they can claim credit. Obama, OTOH, would like to get this done via EO after the midterms so that Dems get the credit in 2016.

I think this is wishful thinking. I don't think Republicans are at all interested in taking credit for immigration reform. I don't think anything can get passed through Republican controlled house. If they take Senate, it will only bolster their belief that they can take white house without any kind of Immigration reform. House and Senate are both likely to get only more radicalized after election. Recent Boehner comments are nothing more than effort at delaying or sabotaging Obama's EO. If Obama delays EO until after election, there will be voices to give new Congress "a chance" to solve issue via legislation. That process (a re-run of a CIR bill) will take up entire 2015 without any action. And of course, 2016 being election year, same Dems will come out opposing any action as it will hurt their chances.

Pessimistic, of course. But no amount of pessimism is enough when it comes to Immigration related legislative changes.

[geterdone]

Looks like he is thinking about EO- now that that does not mean there will be something for the EB community

Obama: Immigration announcement 'soon'

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...-day/15130029/

[kkruna]

A good recap of options - feasible or not:

http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2....Sept-2014.pdf

[anuprab]

there has to be something for EB community, he cant do illegal EO all the way.

Looks like he is thinking about EO- now that that does not mean there will be something for the EB community

Obama: Immigration announcement 'soon'

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...-day/15130029/

[yarlii]

EB-2 and EB-3 May Become Current under President’s Proposed Executive Action

By Rahul Reddy & Emily Neumann, Attorneys at Law

Over a year ago, we wrote about a few provisions in the proposed Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill that specifically dealt with the Employment-Based green card backlogs. Of course, that bill stalled in the House of Representatives, but the ideas for reform may still be alive in the form of Executive Action by President Barack Obama. In recent weeks, White House officials have been talking with business leaders about what should be included in the President’s plan on immigration. A range of fixes have been discussed and signals indicate that action may be taken by the end of the summer or mid-September.

Two expected provisions that would have an immediate positive effect on those waiting in the Employment-Based green card backlog are:

1. Stop counting family members
2. Recapture unused employment-based visas

Under the current immigration system, a professional with his wife and two children currently draws down four green cards from a given employment-based immigration category. If family members are no longer counted, then only a single green card, one for the primary applicant, would count against the quota. This could effectively double or possibly even triple the number of workers who are able to obtain the green card.

But, the provision with the highest potential impact would be the proposal to allow a recapture of all unused employment-based visas from 1992 to the present. During the 90’s and early 2000’s, many green cards went unused each year because of processing delays and the seven percent cap. This led to an estimated 400,000 green cards that went unused, which would now become available.
Both of these provisions were included in the Senate’s Comprehensive Bill and neither of them would require any increase in the congressionally-mandated limits. That means that chances of these changes actually being included in any Executive Action are relatively high.

These two provisions would translate into the possibility that priority dates may become current for all of EB2 and possibly even EB3. This impacts not just those that have already started the process and are currently waiting for the date to become current, but also those who have not yet begun. Even those starting the labor certification process today would likely be able to file the I-140 and I-485 concurrently immediately upon approval of the labor certification. If there is no wait for filing an adjustment of status, it opens up the possibility for some to avoid obtaining an H-1B visa. For example, an F-1 student with 12 months of OPT plus 17 months of STEM extension could conceivably obtain a labor certification, file the I-140 and I-485, and obtain an EAD before the OPT period has ended, thus eliminating the need for an H-1B.

The practical impact of the proposed changes would greatly benefit citizens of one nation in particular – India. Currently, the number of employment-based green cards given to Indians each year is capped to an arbitrarily low amount, just seven percent of the 140,000 total. Despite a booming population of Indians with advanced degrees and experience in high tech fields such as computer science and engineering, the seven percent cap applies uniformly to each individual country. For Indians, the cap has created a backlog that can keep immigrants waiting 11 years for a green card under the current system. While 140,000 visas may seem like plenty, after applying the seven percent cap for any single country, Indians start with just 2,800 green cards each year for each of the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories, respectively. Though Indians are now allowed to exceed the seven percent cap when visas in EB-1 and EB-2 go unused by other countries, the additional visas are too few and do little to ease waiting times. With the two provisions above, the 11 year backlog could be eliminated for Indians.

At this time we can only speculate about when these provisions would be implemented. Given the likelihood that the President may act by mid-September, it is possible that we may see the benefit beginning with the October 1st visa bulletin. That would be an excellent time to make the change as the 2015 Fiscal Year begins on October 1, 2014. That is when next year’s visas begin being distributed.


http://www.rnlawgroup.com/news/428-e...n#.VAXWl8VdUmt

[iatiam]

I want to believe that all these news stories will turn out to be true. But in the end any one with a head above the neck knows that all that the President will do is to extend DACA which will ensure that Democrats get the hispanic votes. He will then blame the republicans for obstruction and show up in a few meetings (like the FB and LinkedIn townhall meetings) and tell the audience (majority will be Asians) that he cares for them and will give GCs for all. This is a cheap political move and has been done before and will be done again. Democrats had both house and Senate for four years, house, senate and WH for two years and nothing got done. Expecting them to do some thing is stupidity. FWIW Republicans favor legal immigration. HR 3012 was brought by two Republicans (Chavetz being one of them). Rep Issa proposed a bill which moves all the DV visas to legal quote. Issas bill was shot down because Democrats thought that we are denying the poor people from all over the country a chance at the American dream. Except rogue players like Grassley, I trust Republicans more.

Before you throw stones at me, remember that I am not making a political statement. I am just calling out the truth as some one who has been (and is still) waiting for more than a decade to get my GC.

Iatiam

[cursedguy]

Hard to believe that Obama will do anything for Legal immigrants - He has been a BIG 'NO SHOW' so far .. mostly because Indians (the people who will benefit most ) are not a traditional democratic vote bank. Although this has changed a lot in 2012. Another factor to consider is most Indians live in/near Metros which have been in blue states to start with.

[seattlet]

Lets not forget. This president always had the opportunity to do something for Legals (Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, larry page, larry ellison all met him in 2010 and asked him to do something for legals in Bay area president meet. President told them that until something is done for Illegal children it is not possible to do much. But in 2012 he gave DACA to those kids but left legals in limbo). My honest opinion, he doesnt want to give anything for legals. On the other hand, by twisting harry Reid's hands he had made sure most bills with only legal immigration coming from Congress, will not pass senate (or even be considered for a vote).

I think Obama believes that legals are taking away decent paying jobs from Americans (which in a way can be true especially if you look at any PERM / H1 labor applications and the way things get manipulated to ensure there is a chance of success . In case of H1, most Indian IT companies chronically understate the experience and skills required for the position so that they would fall to cheaper wage category per DOL. For PERM most folks do the whole process not with intent to look for a qualifyng american candidate, but hoping not to find one )

If the past is any indicator Obama will likely play spoilsport than help legals. Sorry but that is what the past indicates.

[cursedguy]

I agree with seattlet this will be a expansion to DACA.

[qesehmk]

I think people should really forget there will be any EO. This seems like just a part of politics being played on the eve of congress elections.

For the one - YOU - who is suffering - you will do yourself favor if you assume nothing is going to happen. And then if anything happens then that's a bonus.

[nbk1976]

I never understood why employment-based green card should have a country cap. If the rationale is that a certain skill is unavailable locally, and hence foreign skill is being imported,--how does it matter if the person came from China or Singapore? Only family-based immigration and diversity-visas should have country quotas.

[amulchandra]

I think people should really forget there will be any EO. This seems like just a part of politics being played on the eve of congress elections.

For the one - YOU - who is suffering - you will do yourself favor if you assume nothing is going to happen. And then if anything happens then that's a bonus.

Your are soooooo correct. WH officials announced today that EO will be postponed until after November midterms.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/us...migration.html

All hype and no action.

[cursedguy]

Hard to believe that Obama will do anything for Legal immigrants - He has been a BIG 'NO SHOW' so far .. mostly because Indians (the people who will benefit most ) are not a traditional democratic vote bank. Although this has changed a lot in 2012. Another factor to consider is most Indians live in/near Metros which have been in blue states to start with.

As expected NO SHOW again. He does not have the will to do anything for Legal immigrants.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireS...ction-25312272