Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[rupen86]

Different thinking that immigration reform will have better chances in 2014.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3588225.html

[rupen86]

Q or anybody,

Could anybody please help me understand what provisions are there in the currently passed CIR bill that helps EB2-3 I&C people?

1) Recapture
2) Exempting dependents
3) Exempting EB1
4) Exempting STEM
5) Per country Quota elimination
6) Early filing of I-485
7) Visa Revalidation
8) Job mobility provisions

Here is a good comparison of senate bill vs HR 2131.

http://www.illinoistech.org/FileTree...31%20clean.pdf

[qesehmk]

Here is a summary on this forum by various people. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...amp-Discussion

Q or anybody,

Could anybody please help me understand what provisions are there in the currently passed CIR bill that helps EB2-3 I&C people?

[gs1968]

Sen.Rubio is very smartly stepping aside for now to let the House do its own job.He will most likely come back into the picture prominently when things come together between the House & Senate towards the end to claim credit

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...tml?1374016994

On a different note the House judiciary Immigration sub-committee is holding a hearing on the DREAM Bill on July 23

[gcq]

1) Recapture

http://www.illinoistech.org/FileTree...31%20clean.pdf

Hr 2131 has all the signs that it originated in business friendly GOP house. No democratic/anti-immigrant effect on H1B. No significant improvement for GC. House is showing they did "something" for immigration.

[idiotic]

On a different note the House judiciary Immigration sub-committee is holding a hearing on the DREAM Bill on July 23

How Shameless they can be.. Just last month they passed a bill to cut funding to DACA and this month we have KIDS act Wonder if Mr. King will vote for it.

[rupen86]

Hr 2131 has all the signs that it originated in business friendly GOP house. No democratic/anti-immigrant effect on H1B. No significant improvement for GC. House is showing they did "something" for immigration.

I agree. Seems like it is written exactly as companies might have wanted.

[psychedelicNerd]

'No Major Problems' As House Gang Of 7 Creeps Towards Comprehensive Bill

http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...e-bill-1349765

[gs1968]

How Shameless they can be.. Just last month they passed a bill to cut funding to DACA and this month we have KIDS act Wonder if Mr. King will vote for it.

My understanding of that vote was to rebuke President Obama for using executive power in a situation where Congressional approval was more preferable. Of course if Congress had acted all these years in a timely manner-this situation would have never occurred.

[gs1968]

'No Major Problems' As House Gang Of 7 Creeps Towards Comprehensive Bill

http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...e-bill-1349765

It speaks volumes of the difficulty in the House compared to the Senate.The senate conceived a plan in December 2012,announced a blueprint in Jan 2013,introduced legislation in April 2013,passed through committee in May 2013 and passed through the whole Senate in Jun 2013.The House group has been working for 4 years and is still trying to get it right.The earliest introduction date is now September 2013 by which time the House piecemeal bills and the Tea Party groups will be in full swing

I came across this article and I am not sure if this is supposed to be optimistic or otherwise

http://techcrunch.com/2013/07/17/rep...possibly-2014/

[idiotic]

My understanding of that vote was to rebuke President Obama for using executive power in a situation where Congressional approval was more preferable. Of course if Congress had acted all these years in a timely manner-this situation would have never occurred.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3397126.html

Here is the video to the house passing of that controversial piece.. It was using the congress's "power of purse" to counter the executive branch. Reid thrown it to dustbin on arrival with a statement.

[seahawks2012]

It speaks volumes of the difficulty in the House compared to the Senate.The senate conceived a plan in December 2012,announced a blueprint in Jan 2013,introduced legislation in April 2013,passed through committee in May 2013 and passed through the whole Senate in Jun 2013.

By the same timelines of 7 months, a new bill from House will take another 7 months to pass House and another 2-4 months in conference with the Senate. This already puts the immigration reform to 9-11 months which is Summer next year. Timing-wise this fits well in the Republican primaries which has been the primary concern for House members. Though I don't know exactly when the GOP primaries are to select Candidates.

[natvyas]

The only way out of this pickle for the republican party is that Mr. Boehner is "forced" to bring the Senate Version of the bill to the floor for voting. I think this is what is going to end up happening.

This way the House members (to the right) can be in the good books of their constituents and GOP Senator can hope to win the White House in 2016.

[rupen86]

House gang of 7 bill after summer recess.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ain-94336.html

[GCKnowHow]

Today I bumped into below URL to sign petition to house. Are you guys aware of it. Is it a legit one?

http://www.fwd.us/house?recruiter_id=127876

[rupen86]

some hope.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...425.html?hp=f1

[idiotic]

Today I bumped into below URL to sign petition to house. Are you guys aware of it. Is it a legit one?

http://www.fwd.us/house?recruiter_id=127876

fwd.us is Mark Zuckerberg's lobbying front for Immigration reform. They have spent the most money among the pro-immigration groups and is widely responsible for outspending the anti-immigrant groups.

Join hands with them.. Register as volunteer and do what they ask to do.. They ask to do some timely action items (like they asked everyone to call House of Representatives a day before the July 10th meeting).. It's easy to call through their website as you will get a incoming call based on your zip code automatically.

[rupen86]

August recess-Make or Break

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ess-94389.html

[rupen86]

Hispanic media focusing exclusively on John Boehner

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-john-boehner/

[psychedelicNerd]

Some more reads

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...96H1B520130718

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ration-reform/

[rupen86]

Some more reads

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...96H1B520130718

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ration-reform/

Opponents seem to have upper hand right now. August seems make or break for immigration reform.

[Jagan01]

Opponents seem to have upper hand right now. August seems make or break for immigration reform.

My two cents:
1. CIR wont pass this year. If it does then I will be happy as I have not even filed 485 yet. Republicans are fearing that they might loose their conservative votes and end up loosing the house to democrats. It is also important to note that there is a fair chance of having republicans form majority in both senate and house after 2014 elections. Most of the seats to be contested in senate in nov 2014 are belonging to democrats today. Thus Republicans can potentially turn them over and gain majority in both senate and house.
2. It will pass after 2014 elections which might be summer of 2015. I am hoping either democrats win house and retain senate OR republicans win senate and retain house. Both outcomes are good for legal immigrants and the reform we need will then be passed. So there is good chance for reform post 2014.

[rupen86]

My two cents:
1. CIR wont pass this year. If it does then I will be happy as I have not even filed 485 yet. Republicans are fearing that they might loose their conservative votes and end up loosing the house to democrats. It is also important to note that there is a fair chance of having republicans form majority in both senate and house after 2014 elections. Most of the seats to be contested in senate in nov 2014 are belonging to democrats today. Thus Republicans can potentially turn them over and gain majority in both senate and house.
2. It will pass after 2014 elections which might be summer of 2015. I am hoping either democrats win house and retain senate OR republicans win senate and retain house. Both outcomes are good for legal immigrants and the reform we need will then be passed. So there is good chance for reform post 2014.

That is one line of thinking which may be right. But it may be too early to give up. Backers are preparing for final push.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/pol...o-finish-line/

[vizcard]

That is one line of thinking which may be right. But it may be too early to give up. Backers are preparing for final push.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/pol...o-finish-line/

Its tough sledding because those Republicans who are not potential Presidential candidates (e.g. Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, etc) dont give a crap about national politics and could care less about the "greater good for America" as long as their jobs in their constituencies are secure

[Jagan01]

Its tough sledding because those Republicans who are not potential Presidential candidates (e.g. Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, etc) dont give a crap about national politics and could care less about the "greater good for America" as long as their jobs in their constituencies are secure

If we keep ourselves in the shoes of Republicans we would be able to figure out what their strategy is:
1. Pro-Immigrant votes do not matter in the House or Senate elections as most people do not care to vote.
2. Pro-Immigrant votes do matter in Presidential elections
3. Anti-Immigrant votes do matter in Republican Primaries

There is no incentive for them to pass it this year due to senate and house elections coming up. The Republican congressmen (both pro and anti immigration stance) want the decision to be deferred.
- The pro-immigrants like (Rubio, Jeb Bush, McCain, Graham) would ideally benefit in the 2016 presidential race if the immigration reform was passed in 2015. Its human tendency to forget things that happened 3 years earlier and hence the best way for them to claim credit is to let it pass in 2015.
- The anti-immigrants like (Sessions, Goodlate) would benefit in primaries as they get the anti-immigrant vote . Hence even they want the decision to be deferred until 2015.

I am hoping against hope that it might pass sooner but looks like its destined to pass in 2015.