Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[Zenzone]

Even if it passes both chambers which is a very low probability, Trump is not going to sign anything other than a negotiated covid bill.

I disagree with you. This won’t be cleared in the Senate without WH’s blessings. I think WH blessed this bill becoz there are H1B reforms embedded in it. This passes today as soon as the courts issued injunction on the DOL wage rule and DHS specialty occupation rule yesterday. Its not a coincidence! I now give this bill a 90% chance of being reconciled and voted by the house and sent to DT for signing (which I expect that he will). This has better probability of becoming law now more than ever in the past decade!

[gs1968]

It is amazing how many ways a total of 120K visas can be divided. Under the current Bill my estimate is that in the EB3 category only about 35% will be available to Indian and Chinese on H-1B visas in the first year. There is a maximum of 70% that can go to H-1B/H4 holders so that takes away 30%. There is also a 25% non Top 2 country quota which is another 25% followed by 4400 (about 10-11%) for consular processing abroad for countries with low representation. Thus 65 % is reserved in some way or the other. I may be reading the Bill wrong so please feel free to correct

[gs1968]

I disagree with you. This won’t be cleared in the Senate without WH’s blessings. I think WH blessed this bill becoz there are H1B reforms embedded in it. This passes today as soon as the courts issued injunction on the DOL wage rule and DHS specialty occupation rule yesterday. Its not a coincidence! I now give this bill a 90% chance of being reconciled and voted by the house and sent to DT for signing (which I expect that he will). This has better probability of becoming law now more than ever in the past decade!

There is every reason to be optimistic but this almost a brand new Bill that the House is considering. What passed last summer in the House bears no resemblance to the current version even though the House Bill number was retained. To overcome multiple blocks there have been numerous changes and carve outs inserted into the Bill which the House has to at least consider. If the House makes changes it has to come back to the Senate again. Fortunately if suspension of rules is not considered in the House (requiring 2/3 majority) there is always a chance of procuring a simple majority. We have only 2 weeks left in this session

[Zenzone]

Yes. Biden is all for country cap removal and h1b reform at the same time. This bill has both and Kamala was one of the earliest sponsors in the Senate too!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I disagree with you. This won’t be cleared in the Senate without WH’s blessings. I think WH blessed this bill becoz there are H1B reforms embedded in it. This passes today as soon as the courts issued injunction on the DOL wage rule and DHS specialty occupation rule yesterday. Its not a coincidence! I now give this bill a 90% chance of being reconciled and voted by the house and sent to DT for signing (which I expect that he will). This has better probability of becoming law now more than ever in the past decade!

I understand your view, just that we have been shown this movie time and again. I will believe it when the POTUS signs it into law. There is going to be heavy lobbying by the Chinese, ROW, Immigration lawyers, Outsourcers against it's passage. This has to get done by 12/18 which is just a couple of weeks away, so we will know very soon.

[EB22010Dec]

With all the congratulations on Twitter, I feel like we have reached the high point in this bill's life.
I hope I am wrong. We shall see.

[AceMan]

Looks like a decent compromise bill. Apply for 485 within 2 years of 140 and protection of the children aging out based on the filing date is very good. Let us see if it passes the house

[vedu]

Finally the constant advocacy efforts by SOME bore fruit! Let's hope for the final passage of this sensible bill. It doesn't affect many people like me. It's too late for us now. But the country caps in the employment based category must go, that's the only fair thing to do!

[Zenzone]

I understand your view, just that we have been shown this movie time and again. I will believe it when the POTUS signs it into law. There is going to be heavy lobbying by the Chinese, ROW, Immigration lawyers, Outsourcers against it's passage. This has to get done by 12/18 which is just a couple of weeks away, so we will know very soon.

Nothing wrong in being cautious as we have some bitter history here. However, I would say this is the closest I have seen this come through. Also, this is 2020, anything is possible! The very fact many of us filed for I-485 just last month is an example of what's possible in 2020 both positive and negative!

[gs1968]

Looks like a decent compromise bill. Apply for 485 within 2 years of 140 and protection of the children aging out based on the filing date is very good. Let us see if it passes the house

Correctly said. I wish the date of implementation could be moved forward somewhat.The AOS provisions do not go into effect for 1 year after enactment and the actual country cap removal do not start till October 1,2022. This is the best possible Bill within the constraints of limitation of annual numbers. We have to wait to see how the chips fall in the long run for various countries. With so many carve outs rule making and implementation will be challenging and I fully a few technical correction Bills by both chambers next year as problems arise

[gs1968]

I still don't understand 70% provision. Is it 70% of 140K GCs annually or 120K (EB1/2/3)? Also if not H-1B what are other major avenues of employment immigration to consume those 30% visas? In any case if that 30% is unused it will go back to the backlog reduction pool anyway. I read that Lofgren is lobbying hard to remove that provision especially the 50% after 9 years.

[mitul75]

This is what ET has to say about the amended senate bill that might lead to stalemate in House.

"The other change says that no Chinese national affiliated with the Chinese military or the Chinese Communist Party can enter the United States or be eligible to adjust visa status under any category. This would impact almost all Chinese nationals as most Chinese students are part of a youth organization affiliated to the CCP in some manner."

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...campaign=cppst

[Zenzone]

This is what ET has to say about the amended senate bill that might lead to stalemate in House.

"The other change says that no Chinese national affiliated with the Chinese military or the Chinese Communist Party can enter the United States or be eligible to adjust visa status under any category. This would impact almost all Chinese nationals as most Chinese students are part of a youth organization affiliated to the CCP in some manner."

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...campaign=cppst

No offense. ET has not been a trusted source for immigration news in my experience! They simply post opinions from some immigration lawyers. Pretty useless!

[newyorker123]

Did the rule about increased scope of premium processing (for H4, EAD etc. ) become a law ? I do not see any definite news anywhere but saw it mentioned somewhere

[mitul75]

No offense. ET has not been a trusted source for immigration news in my experience! They simply post opinions from some immigration lawyers. Pretty useless!

Well, you are entitled to your opinion. The clause about Chinese nationals is a fact, and that opinion quoted in ET is that of an immigration attorney.

[Zenzone]

Well, you are entitled to your opinion. The clause about Chinese nationals is a fact, and that opinion quoted in ET is that of an immigration attorney.

People who have been following this for a while know about how immigration attorneys have their views and agenda. I would take these with a grain of salt. The clause about Chinese nationals is actually not a big deal as one attorney has claimed here by the way! In most immigration forms they already ask about your allegiance to communist movements and militaries to determine eligibility. Even the existing I-485 AOS form has it. I will verify facts before taking sides. This bill has a decent chance than ever before. Here is more context from a different thread -

There are widespread and inaccurate reports that S386 is passed. That's not true.

S386 was a competing senate bill to HR1044. It is where it is. In the judiciary committee.

What was passed in the senate yesterday is an amended HR1044.

It means that the house only needs to approve the amendment. If it were S386 being passed then there would have been a long and painful process of reconciling house bill and senate bill. With amendment there is some (not a whole lot) hope that the house may actually take this up and pass.

It all depends on how complicated and contentious the amendment is or is not.

[Zenzone]

Did the rule about increased scope of premium processing (for H4, EAD etc. ) become a law ? I do not see any definite news anywhere but saw it mentioned somewhere

Nope. I haven't seen that yet.

[mitul75]

People who have been following this for a while know about how immigration attorneys have their views and agenda. I would take these with a grain of salt. The clause about Chinese nationals is actually not a big deal as one attorney has claimed here by the way! In most immigration forms they already ask about your allegiance to communist movements and militaries to determine eligibility. Even the existing I-485 AOS form has it. I will verify facts before taking sides. This bill has a decent chance than ever before. Here is more context from a different thread -

There are widespread and inaccurate reports that S386 is passed. That's not true.

S386 was a competing senate bill to HR1044. It is where it is. In the judiciary committee.

What was passed in the senate yesterday is an amended HR1044.

It means that the house only needs to approve the amendment. If it were S386 being passed then there would have been a long and painful process of reconciling house bill and senate bill. With amendment there is some (not a whole lot) hope that the house may actually take this up and pass.

It all depends on how complicated and contentious the amendment is or is not.

ET didn't say that S386 passed yesterday, but the amended HR1044. The problem, again, as per immigration attorneys, is that the amendment states the following. This may or may not be an issue depending on how the House treats it as contentious or not. I'm not taking sides here but just sharing the story.

=========================
SEC. 9. PROHIBITION ON ADMISSION OR
ADJUSTMENT OF STATUS OF ALIENS AFFILIATED
WITH THE MILITARY FORCES OF THE PEOPLE’S
REPUBLIC OF CHINA OR THE CHINESE COMMUNIST
PARTY.
The Secretary of Homeland Security shall not admit to the United States, or adjust status
of, any alien affiliated with the military forces of the People’s Republic of China or the
Chinese Communist Party, as determined by the Secretary of Homeland Security, in
consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Attorney General,
and the Director of National Intelligence.
==========================

[vsivarama]

=========================
SEC. 9. PROHIBITION ON ADMISSION OR
ADJUSTMENT OF STATUS OF ALIENS AFFILIATED
WITH THE MILITARY FORCES OF THE PEOPLE’S
REPUBLIC OF CHINA OR THE CHINESE COMMUNIST
PARTY.
The Secretary of Homeland Security shall not admit to the United States, or adjust status
of, any alien affiliated with the military forces of the People’s Republic of China or the
Chinese Communist Party, as determined by the Secretary of Homeland Security, in
consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Attorney General,
and the Director of National Intelligence.
==========================

The statement above is in present tense. So I guess it's up for interpretation if they are currently affiliated with the military forces (which is a smaller set of people) or if they ever have been a part of it as required by mandatory service. The future of the bill hinges on which side the argument lands on.

[AceMan]

People who have been following this for a while know about how immigration attorneys have their views and agenda. I would take these with a grain of salt. The clause about Chinese nationals is actually not a big deal as one attorney has claimed here by the way! In most immigration forms they already ask about your allegiance to communist movements and militaries to determine eligibility. Even the existing I-485 AOS form has it. I will verify facts before taking sides. This bill has a decent chance than ever before. Here is more context from a different thread -

There are widespread and inaccurate reports that S386 is passed. That's not true.

S386 was a competing senate bill to HR1044. It is where it is. In the judiciary committee.

What was passed in the senate yesterday is an amended HR1044.

It means that the house only needs to approve the amendment. If it were S386 being passed then there would have been a long and painful process of reconciling house bill and senate bill. With amendment there is some (not a whole lot) hope that the house may actually take this up and pass.

It all depends on how complicated and contentious the amendment is or is not.

I saw this today morning here and the chances of house approving is high before the year end and ready for Trump’s signature.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I saw this today morning here and the chances of house approving is high before the year end and ready for Trump’s signature.

Is there realistically enough time for this to go the House, back to the Senate and then get signed into law?

[gs1968]

Is there realistically enough time for this to go the House, back to the Senate and then get signed into law?

My smart money would be on tacking this on to the Omnibus appropriations Bill this month.It is a must pass Bill that will have to be agreed to in both Chambers. The current CR expires on December 11 and ideally the next appropriations Bill has to be passed before it expires.As it stands there is no agreement yet. I anticipate that if the situation stays the same then a short term CR would be passed for a 10-14 day period to give the negotiators more time. Lofgren has championed this since 2007 and knows that she may never get another chance although what has come back to her is vastly different from her vision of the solution. The Bill itself is so messily drafted that after this passes there are bound to be technical correction Bills needing to be passed to clear confusion during rule making and implementation

[qesehmk]

There is a chance it will get approved. But the way this passed senate was ridiculous. After holding this over nothing for months and months .. they passed it in under 5 minutes 2 weeks before house session ends. So there is a bit of dis ingenuity there.

However one of the greatest out comes of this is
---------
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DRUMROLL
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Both houses of congress now officially recognize country caps as unfair. That's a big deal. When S386 failed I did say that not all is lost and that it is a big plus that a lot of people on the hill understand this issue and that country caps' end is coming near.

So regardless of what house does next, rest assured country caps will be gone either now or in next 4 years.

I doubt how big of a role "SOME" people had in it. For the simple reason that they can't figure out what exactly was passed in the senate. Regardless, congratulations to those that contributed to advocacy. As somebody said above, this may not mean much for people with dates in 2010/12 but it will mean a lot for people with dates in 2015 and beyond.

[gs1968]

Another interesting point is that the minimum 4400 visas for nurse/physical therapists only applies to the principal beneficiary.The derivative applicants will be allotted visas from the general pool
This will really squeeze EB-3 availability because I think the 70% cap on H-1B/H4 is to allow full usage of the 10000 unskilled workers quota who do not qualify for H-1B

[gs1968]

There is a chance it will get approved. But the way this passed senate was ridiculous. After holding this over nothing for months and months .. they passed it in under 5 minutes 2 weeks before house session ends. So there is a bit of dis ingenuity there.

However one of the greatest out comes of this is
---------
--------
--------
DRUMROLL
----------
----------
Both houses of congress now officially recognize country caps as unfair. That's a big deal. When S386 failed I did say that not all is lost and that it is a big plus that a lot of people on the hill understand this issue and that country caps' end is coming near.

So regardless of what house does next, rest assured country caps will be gone either now or in next 4 years.

I doubt how big of a role "SOME" people had in it. For the simple reason that they can't figure out what exactly was passed in the senate. Regardless, congratulations to those that contributed to advocacy. As somebody said above, this may not mean much for people with dates in 2010/12 but it will mean a lot for people with dates in 2015 and beyond.

You are on point as usual. They certainly spent a lot of time (4 months) to come up with really one significant change. But the verbal gymnastics in the Bill is insane and it will take a while to unpack everything to see where the chips will fall. But the fact remains that for somebody from any country that gets in line today there will be a 15 year wait to a GC.