Q's Uneducated and Silly Political & Economic Predictions

[qesehmk]

Alright friends - now that Obama is president - I can't help but make some more predictions.

1. Hillary runs for 2016 and becomes first woman president.
2. Chris Christie runs for president on Republican ticket in 2016
3. Collin Powell becomes secretary of state in 2013.
4. HR3012 and/or one of the STEM bills is signed into law in 2013.
5. Nate Silver is sought after by ALL news channels for political commentary.
6. Fox News keeps in business at least for next 4 years.
7. American Manufacturing picks up even bigger speed and sees reversal of outsourcing. But service sector outsourcing continues.
8. Tea Party loses steam
9. Oil price per barrel and US defense stocks slide between Nov 6, 2012 and Nov 6, 2016.
10. Come on .... you really believe all of this? Well ... I do!

[nishant2200]

No. 1 is very very likely. Good points, they are not too far fetched really.

[Pedro Gonzales]

We are of one blood, you and I. Translate: I believe (and hope) for every one of those.

I'll add one thing.

11. Exports pick up (perhaps eliminating the trade deficit), unemployment drops below 5%, GDP growth hits 3% and the stock market reaches all time highs, all in 2013, all of which would have happened irrespective of who won.

[qesehmk]

Pedro - interestingly GW Bush and his administration believed that in a fast globalizing world economy they needed to have wars in order to ensure a good living standard. In other words keep others off balance and ensure your edge. A classic example is the Bosnia war. Is it a coincidence that it happened exactly when Euro was being born!! So it's not just third world. But American foreign policy aims to take out threats even from the first world.

Dems on the other hand - seem to believe that in a fast globalizing world there is room for everyone to do better than yesterday. It is almost inevitable that some living standards will rise faster than others but that's only because they have been lagging behind so chronically. So while India and China will improve their living standards far faster than US and Europe - US in particular will enjoy best living standard far beyond when you and I are dead - no matter what. This is the alternative model for world economy compared to making wars.

Bullet 11 of yours and bullet 7 of mine allude to that model where American manufacturing which is phenomenally efficient, innovative, quality and utility driven can export tons of stuff while service sector will inevitably be outsourced simply because Americans do not necessarily have any special edge in that sector (other than core finance and banking probably). So remote services (e.g. AP, AR, Advisory, Loan Processing, Prescription etc etc) will continue to be outsourced.

We are of one blood, you and I. Translate: I believe (and hope) for every one of those.

I'll add one thing.

11. Exports pick up (perhaps eliminating the trade deficit), unemployment drops below 5%, GDP growth hits 3% and the stock market reaches all time highs, all in 2013, all of which would have happened irrespective of who won.